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David Rosenberg On The 'One-Trick Pony Market'

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Global economic fundamentals are awful, bearish divergences are occurring everywhere, investor sentiment is nearing bullish extremes, political risks remain high and last week's market performance can be summed up in four words - 'lack of follow through'. As Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg explains, more than two-thirds of the rally points the stock market has enjoyed since the summer-time lows occurred around central bank policy announcements. So the market is really a one-trick pony here, breathing in the fumes of central bank liquidity.

 

David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff: BUMPY ROAD

What the stock market lacked last week can be boiled down to two words — follow through. It's as if all the QE and then some got priced in the week before. Not even the ballyhooed introduction of the iPhone 5 managed to elicit much excitement. It was interesting to see the Dow fail to hold onto its early gains on Friday and close with a 17 point loss and to see the sector leaders narrow to a group of defensives like health care and telecom services_ The financials and materials segments were very soft and yet in the past these were the major beneficiaries of Quantitative Easing. For the week, the S&P500 dipped 0.4% — which was not supposed to happen. What was supposed to happen, as the elites told us, was that the lagging hedge funds were going to throw in the towel and chase this market. Everyone expects this to be a major source of buying power.

Alas, but at what price level?

At the same time, what if the bulls who lucked out this year because they hung onto Ben Bernanke's arm decide to take profits or at the least lock in their gains? Or what if there is no progress made on the fiscal front and we go into year-end with the gnawing realization that top marginal capital gains tax rates will be heading back to 43.4% on January 1 from the current 15%? It may be a widely-held view but it is no slam dunk that we finish off 2012 with the double- digit returns — twice what is normal — that have been posted thus far (for more proof, have a look at Money Managers Take a Timeout From Stocks in today's WSJ. And the best quote goes to "nothing the Fed has done has increased earnings expectations').

Further on the political front, it shouldn't be lost on those who are proponents of capitalism that President Obama now enjoys a 49% approval rating — it is up six points in the past year (and election handicappers should note that this is the exact same mting that George W. Bush had at this same juncture of the 2004 campaign — which he won handily against another gaffe-prone opponent).

Interestingly, prices are up impressively this year, but trading volumes are down around 20%. Yet another non-confirmation.

And its not as if the equity market has been rallying off news at it pertains to the fundamentals like the economic data and corporate earnings. Indeed, more than two-thirds of the rally points the stock market has enjoyed since the summer-time lows occurred around central bank policy announcements. So the market is really a one-trick pony here, breathing in the fumes of central bank liquidity.

The global economic fundamentals are awful. China's industrial sector is in decline_ France's PM I data is at a 41-month low, and while Germany did manage to pull off an upside surprise, the whole euro area now has its manufacturing sector behaving as though it is 2009 all over again_ Italy just sharply cut its economic growth forecast (and the stock market there was clocked for a 4% loss last week), shortly after the Japanese government downgraded its own assessment of the economy. Declines occurred in U.S. household employment, real wages, Industrial production and core retail sales. In other words, this is not QE1, when the recession was coming to an end. This is not QE2 or Operation Twist when the economy stopped looking as though it was going to do a "double dip-. No. this latest round of central bank manipulation is happening at a time when there is no sign of an imminent turnaround in the economy, and the weakness has gone viral. The real problems for investor risk appetite comes if we see signs that inflation is heading higher which will limit what the Fed can do, or if we see the economy falter which would then expose Bernanke as the non- wizard that Toto exposed behind the curtain and the Fed as pushing on a string.

Investor sentiment is not at a bullish extreme yet, but it's getting there — at just over 54% bullish sentiment in the latest Investors Intelligence survey. The wedge between the bulls and bears is flirting with the 30-percentage-point spread that typically signals interim market tops.

Earnings expectations are far too optimistic and destined to come down. The consensus has operating EPS accelerating to a 13.4% growth rate in 2013 from 5.4% this year. But with margins at cycle high levels (9.4%, rivaling the 2006 record, just as the market was about to put in its last gasp to a new high) ;and 30% above long-run norms, it will be difficult to see EPS growth that strong absent a return to vigorous corporate pricing power. And with the P/E multiple for the overall market already back to the high end of the range for the past two years, what I see at best is a sideways moving market from here. Some pundits will use interest rates as an excuse, but the weekend WSJ provided some nifty insight showing that the market multiple historically was 12x when the 10-year real bond yield was negative (versus around 14x now).

I don't know but a 12x multiple on a forward earnings stream that will likely be flat around $100 in the coming year doesn't sound like a market that has a whole lot of upside from here (or until we get another announcement from a major central bank).

There are various non-confirming developments taking place, and Dow Theory advocates know exactly what I am talking about as the Dow Transports slumped 5,9% this past week, the largest decline since November of last year That this ultra-cyclically sensitive sector is down 2,2% for the year at a time when the S&P 500 is up 16% is one of the great anomalies for 2012.

 

The railroad stocks not only sagged 7% last week but were also the fourth worst performer in the IBD's 197 industry group. This is a warning sign, make no mistake, underscored by the last week's guidance cuts by both FedEx and Norfolk Southern,

As someone from Miller Tabak put it to the WSJ this weekend:

This is a major divergence that should not be ignored. It tells me the risks of being in the market at these levels is growing. The Transports are the first major index to reflect an underlying change in the market. The market is now saying 'yes, the economy does matter'. You can't close your eyes and buy everything anymore.

Pretty heady stuff.

 

China is another anomaly as its stock market suffered its steepest decline in nearly a year as the Shanghai index closed last week at its lowest price since 2/2/12. It is down 8% for the year, and this is likely important insofar of what it is pricing in for ther world's second largest economy. It's more that just the islands dispute with Japan and the looming political transition - profits there are in a recesion, having comntracted 2.7% this year and the diuffusion mneasures of industrial activity flashed an 11th month in a row of receding manufacturing sector.

And what about Europe. Yet another non-validation. The stock market there, with an 11x forward multiple, 20% below normal, is close to telling us that the recession is getting worse. Since Super Mario embarked on his newest bond buying program in September 6th, Spanish two-year bond yields - the benchmark for global risk trades - have jumped 40 basis points.

 

What makes QE3 different and maybe even less potent than its predecessors is that the trend in global economic activity is still down. In the prior QEs, activity was already reviving and actually this may have played a more significant role in stimulating investor 'animal spirits' than the actual liquidity boost. Let's not also forget that earnings, both operating and reported, are now contracting sequentially. And the ISM is in a multi-month sub-50 pattern. This was not the case during these other QE episodes and serves up a greater hurdle for market performance this time around.

 

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Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:36 | 2824452 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Reality is a bitch

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:46 | 2824495 ACP
ACP's picture

"Step right up folks, men, women and children of all ages. The greatest show on Earth!"

(heh-heh, a sucker's born every minute)

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:23 | 2824656 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Apple supplier halts China factory after violence

JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer Updated 7:26 a.m., Monday, September 24, 2012  BEIJING (AP) —

The company that makes Apple's iPhones suspended production at a factory in China on Monday after a brawl by as many as 2,000 employees at a dormitory injured 40 people.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Apple-supplier-halts-China-factor...

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:43 | 2824480 AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Yep! Bullish! I will stay long in the long term.... say ... 1-2 more weeks?

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:43 | 2824736 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Obviously, there are many factors to be taken into account to determine the path to take the market. I think it is more reasonable to set aside (for a moment), all these factors and look at what the charts say. And the graphics say there has been a breakout in the market and the trend is upwards. The charts also say right now is occurring short-term correction. At the moment it is only short term. If the bankrupt ssu market support level, then we would be under a different scenario. But that has not happened yet. Keep unestras long positions (with well-defined stop levels) and take short positions to take advantage of short term this fall. No mistake in such information and take advantage of these movements on Wall Street to earn (more) money.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:43 | 2824485 jeff314
jeff314's picture

Fuck you Bernanke....

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:52 | 2824516 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

When Rosie intones these types of bull market invalidation points, you just know the ES is going to crawl up to 1600 just to prove him wrong again for the 32nd time in a row.  Call me "Rosie immune."  At the same time, Gluskin has a just-as-bullish-as-everbody-else portfolio monkey jumping on value like everybody else. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:52 | 2824521 StockHut
StockHut's picture

All spot on analysis from Rosenberg, but can you really fight the fed here?  Over the past 4 years, all we have learned is that it pays to be long in a central bank manipulated market.  Buy gold to hedge the inevitable and keep 20%-30% cash ready to deploy if we get a big crash.  Otherwise, ride the liquidity wave and stay long.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:54 | 2824524 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

+1  Yup, just got to find those QE3 winners outside the MBS space, that is all. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:24 | 2824661 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

mortgage servicers, but probably not too many "winners" this go around.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:43 | 2824731 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

last time you were saying "find the winners inside the MBS space... "  got a little burned from the financials last week??

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 13:17 | 2824904 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Not burned by financials, but in and out of them until a sustained rally can be formed there: as ZH has accurately shown, financials and transports are performing poorly vis-a-vis defensives like health care. 

It seems it might take a good long month until the bull market resumes, but then we are inside earnings and last stages of election, so the risks are fairly daunting to be full-out bullish right now. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:39 | 2824564 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Romney is "gaffe prone"? And Choomboy isn't? Rosie, you are a loser and a putz. Ben has burned you so badly you don't know where to turn, and are reduced to regurgitating data with no conclusions.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:03 | 2824575 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Economic confidence depends on which side of the political fence you are on.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157502/democrats-continue-boost-economic-confidence.aspx

Are we a rich country with just a misallocation of resources?  Or, are we a country in deep economic trouble?

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:44 | 2824744 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

assuming your question was rhetorical allow me to provide a rhetorical reply: yes to both

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:04 | 2824576 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Prediction: There will come a time (if that time has not come already... and really, I assume it has and they are only jockeying with time) when there is a realization that there must be a purge that initiates a recycling. They will put it off as long as they feel they are gaining advantage by putting it off. But, the time will come when diminishing returns (on whatever) are made not to support the status quo.

Just as in prior cycles, the same old, same old will not (cannot is debateable) be maintained and the most expedient solution will be to flush and refresh. Fortunes will be made and lost, chaos will ensue and people will be hurt... all for their sociopathic need (out of fear) to control and maintain their own security.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:15 | 2824608 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

"Investor sentiment is not at a bullish extreme yet, but it's getting there "

 

There are no investors.  There are only algorithms reading headlines their programmers fed to the Euro microphone sprinters.  Those people are TOLD what to say.

When HFT is 80% of trading, why would you care what investor sentiment is.  Computers have no sentiment.

This is the same effect we see when economists instead of geologists talk about oil.  Economists cannot grasp their irrelevancy.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:17 | 2824628 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

OK, Rosie has finally convinced me, I am buying a million shares of SKUL.  

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:57 | 2824827 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

While you're at it you may as well pick up a million shares of FUK too!

You should make a killing!

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:21 | 2824645 greggh99
greggh99's picture

"decide to take profits or at the least lock in their gains"

I'm sure this is a very naive question. But could someone tell me what the difference is?

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:37 | 2824710 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

you can "lock-in" by hedging with a bearish options/futures position without selling the underlying. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 15:24 | 2825413 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Meanwhile, along Main St. in small towns across the USA, commercial vacancies abound where small business once thrived, provided jobs, and contributed to the tax base. Economic recovery from 2009?  Not likely, unless the community is supported by retirees drawing public pension money. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 19:20 | 2826222 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

... if we see the economy falter which would then expose Bernanke as the non- wizard that Toto exposed behind the curtain and the Fed as pushing on a string.

 

That the central banks have run out of bullets (and the banks' customers have started running out of the banks).

 

Note the petroleum prices which have retreated 8% since the latest round of easy credit. Meanwhile, gold prices have held steady.

 

It IS different this time ...

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 21:10 | 2826557 nastaking
nastaking's picture

As the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) prepares to announce the winner of its competition to find the next-generation cryptographic hash algorithm, renowned cryptographer Bruce Schneier doesn't think that a new ZOPO ZP500+ function is needed at this time.

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