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Preparing For The Revelation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

Spain---The Farce Continues
 
“A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both.”
 
                    -James Madison
 
In the spirit of the European Bank Stress Tests and in the continuum of the Ring around the Rosie concocted by Brussels we are about to be handed another slew of numbers that will show that Spain is fine, prospering and running along just with no difficulties at all; thank you. This data is being prepared by the German firm Oliver Wyman, the German consulting firm. You may recall that we were supposed to have audited financials by the end of September, which was promised by Spain, however that was apparently canceled and there is no such audit underway. So much for the promises of Spain.
 
I can tell you now, with surety, that the evaluation that we will be handed by Oliver Wyman will have all of the value of the paper found in the “banos” of any restaurant in Madrid. My viewpoint is based upon two fundamental points of logic; first is that Spain admittedly engages in “dynamic provisioning” which means that they manipulate their books to their advantage and second is that the Oliver Wyman report audited nothing, checked nothing, validated nothing but merely took the data handed to it by Spain and the Spanish banks and accepted it as factual which I can assure you; it is not given their property valuations. Given the newest bank fantasy test, the only stress being some Spanish politician keeping a straight face while he tells the world that this proves that Spain and her banks are solvent and only have a minor liquidity problem; I will warn you on the eve of its release that it is garbage and should be either ignored or used for your investment committee as a an example of how not to do things in a fiscally responsible company.
 
Upon being handed toilet paper it is wise to recognize it for what it is and to use it accordingly.
 
The Unconditional, Uncapped & Conditional ECB
 
On 6 September 2012 the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on additional measures to preserve collateral availability for counterparties in order to maintain their access to the Euro system's liquidity-providing operations.

"Change in eligibility for central government assets: The Governing Council of the ECB has decided to suspend the application of the minimum credit rating threshold in the collateral eligibility requirements for the purposes of the Euro system's credit operations in the case of marketable debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the central government, and credit claims granted to or guaranteed by the central government, of countries that are eligible for Outright Monetary Transactions or are under an EU-IMF program and comply with the attached conditionality as assessed by the Governing Council."

 

" … Expansion of the list of assets eligible to be used as collateral: The Governing Council of the ECB has also decided that marketable debt instruments denominated in currencies other than the euro, namely the US dollar, the pound sterling and the Japanese yen, and issued and held in the euro area, are eligible to be used as collateral in Euro system credit operations until further notice. This measure reintroduces a similar decision that was applicable between October 2008 and December 2010, with appropriate valuation markdowns."

I think they included, but declined to innumerate, feta cheese crates, olive oil containers, various ouzo bottles, gyro sandwich shop receipts, phyllo triangles, pita leftovers and the little round wooden containers of goat cheese. With a four trillion dollar balance sheet and paid-in capital of $13.8 billion the ECB is the most leveraged government institution on Earth. The supposition here, of course, is they can print money if necessary but I ask the quite serious question of the value of that money as printed. They are already printing, of course, as demonstrated by the Greek and Spanish banks in their newest concoction of “Euroloans” and there may come a time when investors or the ratings agencies or both are going to wake-up to the fact of what is really going on and that, my friends, will be quite a moment which is why I continue to warn about Europe and to advise avoiding exposure because the day will come, the day will arrive, when reality is recognized and then the moment will not just be “Oh My” but “Oh My God” and I fear that he won’t be around that day to deliver any manna from Heaven.
 
The ECB
 
Loans to Financial Intermediaries, Non-Financial Corporations and Households
 
Outstanding Amounts (Billions) July 31, 2012
 
Insurance/Corps    Other Financials    Non-financial Corps   Households        Total
 
$107.3                      $1,508                     $6,060                     $6,760              $14,435.3
 
Source: Monthly Bulletin - Euro Area Statistics Online • Data last updated on 20-09-2012
 
These ECB loans total almost the entire GDP of all of the EU-17. Now you may ask a quite reasonable question at this point; how does the ECB have fifteen trillion dollars in loans outstanding and only have a balance sheet of four trillion dollars? It is an interesting trick; no doubt! The way they do it is to state that many of these loans are guaranteed by other governments and hence are risk free (the way they are actually counted) or that they are contingent liabilities (and not counted) or that they are guaranteed by some bank that is guaranteed by their sovereign nation (not counted) and so these loans do not appear of the balance sheet of the ECB but here they are as provided by data from the ECB themselves. A Revelation?
 
The Law of Nations forestalls the crash but the Law of Averages virtually guarantees it while the precise moment of impact is unobtainable that is exactly why I am so cautious and so determined in my viewpoint that exposure to Europe should be avoided. The impact is surely coming and in my mind; it is only a question of “When?”
 
“The idiocy will continue as long as the practices of Judas are believed to have been sanctified by a higher authority. The moment of the Last Supper will be inspirational to both the believers and those that chose not to believe. I am quite prepared to enjoy the Revelation in its full Biblical consequence.”
 
                            -The Wizard

 

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Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:26 | 2823973 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Molly geez.....is it really that bad?

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:11 | 2824115 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

In addition to turning off the light at the end of the tunnel they have cancelled bedtime snacks.

Does that answer it?

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:50 | 2824512 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

They may have turned off the light at the end of the tunnel but the train is still rapidly approaching.

Insolvency is barreling down the tracks.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:15 | 2824370 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

It is. Rajoy will need to request, but he is stalling for time. His party faces crucial regional elections on October 21, and he is trying to extricate better terms for the inevitable bailout:

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/mainstream-media-still-cant...

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:28 | 2823977 Zola
Zola's picture

I initially thought the title was: Preparing for the Revolution

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2823982 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

"Ring around the Rosie"

Is an old ryme dating back to the Black Death/Plauge.

...Pocket full of possies (to ward off the Black Death)...

....achoo, achoo, we all fall down (sneezing was one on the first symptoms of infection)... 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2824119 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And ashes will fall from the sky as the only sane disposal is to burn...

Burn Brussels.  Burn.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:54 | 2824053 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

Looks like the Spanish Army are getting upset. Lets hope they don't use some of the old school tricks they used to play on people they did not like. Hmmmm?

I am responsible only to God and history.

- Franco

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2824067 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Surely, that can never happen again.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:14 | 2824126 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

'Course not...Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:58 | 2824068 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

Is that really supposed to be Euros, or is it converted to US Dollars?  Makes a difference of around 30%.

Not a lot in the scheme of things European.

 

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2824104 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Another miracle? Saved again? This must be like heaven  -sin, sin, sin   -and get saved with God's loving redemption  -every week. This can go on forever. Let's party on. This time it really is different. Ben and Draghi have magic wands-unbelievable. DOW to 30,000-with no inflation.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:12 | 2824118 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"The Law of Nations forestalls the crash but the Law of Averages virtually guarantees it..."

That's a beauty.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:15 | 2824130 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have taken to telling people when explaining, through their disbelief of course, that their belief is not required.

It's coming.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:13 | 2824120 KFC1404
KFC1404's picture

That can's gotta be kicked a bit further down the road, until after the POTUS election. Just the same way the Troika have been ordered to suppress the data on Greece. Don' want no upturned apple carts just yet thank you.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 10:36 | 2824214 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

All this hubbub about a measly 14.5 trillion Euros of debt? Pshaw! how much is that in real money, like tons of gold or a couple of Big Macs?

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 11:24 | 2824402 DutchMadness
DutchMadness's picture

As long as i can get drunk with my worthless Euro's, it is ok for me...Cheers!

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 12:09 | 2824592 Haager
Haager's picture

Greedmode on - they deserve it.

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