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Gold Holds Post-QE Gains As S&P Drops Most In 2 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems European credit markets were on to something this morning. As European tensions spilled over so the US equity markets just could not hold on to the post QEternity gains and turned down rapidly shortly after Europe closed. The S&P 500 has retraced over 75% of its post-FOMC spike gains, Treasuries are well below the pre-FOMC yield levels and the USD has retraced all of its losses. The 1% drop in the S&P 500 is the largest in over two months. equities closed at their lows - something we have not seen in a while - with all the usual high-beta suspects (e.g. AAPL -2.5%) all getting crushed. VIX surged to 15.5% (up 1.25 vols) as volume surged across most equity indices. Only Healthcare and Staples remain green post-FOMC.

 

Gold is holding its post QE gains but the rest have retraced any of that change...

 

Markets were systemically sold off across every asset class as the weakness spread...

 

S&P 500 futures tumbled hard off on heavy volume...

 

Commodities stumbled on USD strength... but Gold held in...

 

and in case you were wondering where the BTFD'ers were? Well they are all-in - here is S&P futures Commitment of Traders' Net Longs at near-record highs...

 

and HealthCare remains the big winner post-QE as all but Staples...

and everyone's favorite post-QE meal - the major financials - seem to be having some trouble - GS -3.75% post QE...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL -2.5% and not enjoying its post-OPEX high average trade size euphoria reversion...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: MSFT vs AAPL - we know, we know - but can you imagine the coincidence...


 

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Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:06 | 2829301 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"1% drop in spoos largest in over 2 months".

1%, Ha. Long, long way to go.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:07 | 2829302 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

LONG TUNGSTEN! Oh shit...

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:08 | 2829304 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Fat finger? Fat finger.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:09 | 2829308 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Reality setting in when the talk of QE is no longer on the table.

Thus QE was destined to fail and only the potential for it was a market winner.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:11 | 2829323 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

There's always potential for MORE QE... QE infinity +1

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:21 | 2829358 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

QE Aleph 1

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:46 | 2829843 GernB
GernB's picture

Infinity + 1 = Infinity

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:57 | 2829870 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Someone with an actual math background can correct me but isn't infinity +1 google?

Oddly what is Apple +1? Still google.

Go long Archimedes

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:51 | 2829360 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

The real tale is volatility up 15%, market down 1%, it's been quite a while since VIX surged this strong, it signals the long expected drop that Ben's been fighting to prevent. If you all recall, back in 08, Ben announced his QE1 in October and the marked tanked to 666 in the next 4 nonths. A replay is in the cards....not necessarily down to that devilish level...

I can only hope the permabulls got caught with their pants down Today, particularly the last set that bought the QE bs from that moron at SPX 1430 or higher.......

 

 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 18:00 | 2829880 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

666 - yeah not down to that level... Much further...

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:10 | 2829313 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

This was a "courtesy sell-off" implemented by large investment banks to let short-weighted clients cover and get long.  

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:14 | 2829334 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i think that is disturbing and totally accurate

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:24 | 2829373 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

T+3.  Went further than I anticipated.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:59 | 2829603 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

EOQ sell-off to lock in gains 3 days ahead of reporting for trade inside T+3 rule.  Handing of the baton to the new quarter's bulls.  Plus, a re-balance.  

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:34 | 2829451 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

not so sure about the courtesy sell-off.  They tried a few stop runs yesterday and there is the sneaking feeling nobody's there to play with.  Apple seems to have peaked for a while - sales numbers were realitively weak, and don't believe the supply constraint stuff.  

Seems to me we were stuck around 1460 after the new Fed move and there was no interest on the long side, we've got earnings downgrades coming thick and fast and now it's time for a bit of a decline.  

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:46 | 2829516 beachdude
beachdude's picture

Except PM's.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:35 | 2829456 walküre
walküre's picture

It's so crazy, it might actually be true!

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:12 | 2829317 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Jim Cramer, should I buy CAT, AAPL, Facebook or go long on tungsten? 

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." C. S. Lewis

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:13 | 2829690 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

speaking of "omnipotent moral busybodies"- I see the FCC won't do anything about vile,violent,misogynistic garbage like the "CSIs" and "Law and Orders" but edited out the word "poop" on a 30 Rock rerun last night.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:15 | 2829327 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Lab rats, y u no respond to QE no mo ? - Benny

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 18:02 | 2829887 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

There was "fucked" by bernanke being tested on them...they are dead.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:16 | 2829342 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Also anyone following the daily treasury statements and tell me there hasn't been some serious BS going on for the last two months. Take last month for example and do the math with a $189B deficit. Start with the first day available to the last and see if it matches up.

And September has been like pure magic so far. It is actually far less now than it should have been on Sept 1st and don't tell me $18B of AIG stock would have made that gap happen.

Well beyond the skills of Potter.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:17 | 2829343 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

Gold will continue to outperform, IMO it's on the verge of heading into the bubble phase of the bull market where it will move higher very quickly without looking back until it's parabolic:

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2012/09/saddle-up-for-bubble-phase-in-gold.html

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:36 | 2829801 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Bubble phase in gold is an oxymoron

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:17 | 2829344 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

This morning, I read on Bloomberg that stocks were up due to...wait for it..."better than forecast" economic numbers. So, one were to infer that the economy is doing quite well - hell, better than well.

After I arrived home from yet another job interview, I read that stocks were in decline due to a Federal Reserve member's downbeat comments regarding the effect of any more QE on the real economy.

So, one were to infer that there is absolutely no reason to take any of this shit seriously. No one in the media or politics does.

Watch the NFL instead. They take their shit seriously. Oh, wait - uh, well...no? Then I give up.

So should you.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 18:23 | 2829954 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

That's what I keep saying...as long as the fed and central banks around the world can keep printing, ....It's all Bullshit!

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:18 | 2829349 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Maybe the SPX Coyote has discovered that he ran off the cliff about 2 weeks ago.  There's only about 500 feet of air between here and the desert floor.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:21 | 2829351 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

T+3, I luv it.

Who was the moron that dumped that large block of HL?

Thanks, anyway.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:24 | 2829377 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

HFT trading story coming in a little bit but until then a True story of the American economy.

So I am pumping gas into my truck up here in the Northeast a couple of days ago.  Some guy walks up to window and says, "I need a gallon of gas."  I can't hear what clerk says but must be totally dumbfounded. So the guy asking for the gas is stammering a little and then says, "you know what, give me 4 dollars worth, it will be easier that way."

 

I think the BLS has gotten into the consumer confidence polling business.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:28 | 2829408 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Cheaper to walk home.  Just take the plates with.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:26 | 2829396 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

BenDover will allow ES to correct 5%, then ask muppets, "So...we should NOT do QE to infinity...or should we"?

Waiting for the CNBC groupies to scream for more QE !

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:24 | 2829750 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Heard a Hilsenroomer is coming soon.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:28 | 2829410 Money By Trading
Money By Trading's picture

I think gold miners are almost a very good buy, if one wants to beef up exposure.  Looks like a healthy correction in gold to me.  See update:

http://wp.me/p2CT0a-62

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:33 | 2829420 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Over the next 4 years, at current rates, US debt increases by $1.595 trillion per year and unfunded liabilities increases by $6.7765 trillion a year for a total rise of $8.3715 trillion a year.

That precludes any possibility of QE ending ever.

The best the Fed can do is to attack gold and silver through its proxies such as the Morgue. It helps the illusion that inflation is under control.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:30 | 2829421 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Why do market cheerleaders say it's "window dressing" and "expected" when the market goes up at the end of a Q? Then they say it's "natural profit taking and next Q positioning' and "expected" when the market goes down? 

It must be nice to be a perma-happy-cheerleading bull!

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:39 | 2829477 walküre
walküre's picture

yes, take the blue pill next time and stay in Lalaland.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:36 | 2829450 schatzi
schatzi's picture

wow! wtf happened? the news has been semi decent today (relatively) Case-Shiller, Richmond Fed and consumer confidence all posted better than expected rises, yet the market started an accelerated sell-off. Whats the occasion? (Europe, Spain, Greece? We know they're fucked. No new news)

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:40 | 2829480 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Quarter is ending and no one in the game believes the BS and some wanted to make sure they got out on top.  Look for a good ride down slope tomorrow and Thursday.  Someone will step in on Friday to at least get some green on the board so well all feel "wealthy."

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:28 | 2829765 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Jeez, look at the buying at close and into AH.  You lock in, then play the $85 bil a month.

BTFD is still active.  Not like any retail is in this snakepit.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:35 | 2829460 walküre
walküre's picture

No deer in headlight pic yet. I'm not excited.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:39 | 2829479 magpie
magpie's picture

Oh noes, there goes the reelection /sarc

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 16:50 | 2829546 ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49165989

Do you want more proof that the Fed is the toilet bowl everybody shits on?

Title:

Geithner Was ‘Bailouter’ in Chief During Crisis: Bair

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:01 | 2829618 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sell-off today, tomorrow is turnaround.  

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:11 | 2829670 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Yep, or I'm halfway screwed.  Went TNA 15 mins to close.

Oh, and HL on the drop.

Only took 5 beers to say:  "Why the F not?'

$85 bil a month, get real.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 18:00 | 2829882 ekm
ekm's picture

85bill/month is equal to 85 bill/month FORCED BUYING OF STOCKS FROM PRIMARY DEALERS. Not different from the JPM whale forced to buy credit tranches and nobody to sell to.

Panic situation like Primary Dealers owning most of stocks and nobody to sell to, requires panic response like QEnnnn.

This leads to lower and lower volume, hence they'd better shut down NYSE and Nasdaq.

I'd say, one Primary Dealer is going down pretty soon.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 20:54 | 2830482 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Wish I had your courage, as I prefer to do the daily TZA/TNA shuffle between volatility envelope limits, pivots, etc.  These can be nice trades, to be sure, but no early retirement bonanzas as the overnight-ers can provide on occasion. 

Good luck, but remember that TNA is often an acronym for "Tomorrow (we'll) Nail (yer) Ass."

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:08 | 2829660 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Markets tanking trying to sway the November election. It fears a Return of the King.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:17 | 2829711 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Please pay attention.  The correct mantra is T+3 profit lock-in.  There is no tank with $85 bil injected monthly.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:26 | 2829757 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

 

.....and when she bent over....rover took over.....and gave her a bone of his own.

Permabulls, your next.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:32 | 2829786 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Go back to MW.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 20:06 | 2830357 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

DUDE.

SERIOUSLY.

Get the fucking classics straight the first time, or folks will think you are a trolling mo fo.

It goes like this.

"Old Mother Hubbard,

Went to the cupboard,

To fetch poor Rover a bone.

But, when she bent over,

Rover drove her,

'Cause Rover had a bone of his own"

Jesus. Fucking kids these days. Gotta teach 'em everything. 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:27 | 2829760 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

 

.....and when she bent over....rover took over.....and gave her a bone of his own.

Permabulls, your next.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:30 | 2829777 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

Patience is a virtue, of which you sadly lack.

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 21:21 | 2834250 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

I admit my patience has dwindled down to nearly zero. I never did have decades to wait. Now I don't have years to wait. I have months, at best. Or maybe weeks.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:27 | 2829763 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture

 

.....and when she bent over....rover took over.....and gave her a bone of his own.

Permabulls, your next.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:29 | 2829775 roadsnbridges
roadsnbridges's picture

and another moron heard from.....

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 17:39 | 2829809 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Must be a misprint.  Benny would not allow the markets to fall.  After all, QE3 fixes the US and Europe is already fixed.

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 19:13 | 2830077 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Had nothing to do with the Huge Metals and Energy options expiries today right ?

wink - wink !

Metals
  • HXE - October 2012 Copper American Options - Last Trade Date
  • OG - October 2012 Gold American Options - Last Trade Date
  • SO - October 2012 Silver American Options - Last Trade Date
  • HR - September 2012 U.S. Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Index  - Last Trade Date
Energy
  • OH - October 2012 Heating Oil American Options - Last Trade Date
  • ON - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas American Options - Last Trade Date
  • QG - October 2012 E-mini Natural Gas  - Last Trade Date
  • IAY - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas 1 Month 1 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • OB - October 2012 RBOB Gasoline American Options - Last Trade Date
  • NP - October 2012 E-mini Henry Hub Natural Gas Penultimate Financial  - Last Trade Date
  • HP - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Penultimate Financial  - Last Trade Date
  • LB - October 2012 Heating Oil Look-Alike European Options - Last Trade Date
  • RF - October 2012 RBOB Gasoline Look-Alike European European Options - Last Trade Date
  • IB - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas 2 Month 2 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • IC - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas 3 Month 3 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • IE - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas 5 Month 5 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • IM - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas 6 Month 6 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • IZ - October 2012 Natural Gas 12 Month 12 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G4 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 1 Month 1 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G2 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 2 Month 2 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G3 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 3 Month 3 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G5 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 5 Month 5 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G6 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 6 Month 6 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • G7 - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Financial 12 Month 12 Month Calendar Spread Options - Last Trade Date
  • CO - September 2012 Climate Action Reserve (CAR) European Options - Last Trade Date
  • LNE - October 2012 Henry Hub Natural Gas Look-Alike European Options - Last Trade Date
  • ULO - October 2012 New York Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) American Options - Last Trade Date
  • MO - October 2012 Mars (Argus) Trade Month Swap American Options - Last Trade Date
  • A4 - October 2012 Argus LLS Trade Month Swap American Options - Last Trade Date
  • QX - October 2012 CSX Coal (Platts OTC Broker Index) Swap  - Last Trade Date
  • 29 - October 2012 Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) Trade Month Swap American Options - Last Trade Date
  • FH - October 2012 WTS (Argus) vs. WTI Spread Trade Month Swap  - Last Trade Date
  • C25 - September 2012 Short-Term Crude Oil Short-Term Options - Last Trade Date
  • J25 - September 2012 Twenty (20) PJM Peak Calendar-Day LMP Swap Short-Term Options - Last Trade Date
  • E5 - October 2012 Argus LLS vs. WTI (Argus) Trade Month Swap  - Last Trade Date
  • YV - October 2012 Mars (Argus) vs. WTI Spread Trade Month Swap  - Last Trade Date
  • HRO - September 2012 U.S. Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Index Average Price Options - Last Trade Date
  • QP - October 2012 Powder River Basin Coal (Platts OTC Broker Index) Swap  - Last Trade Date
  • V7 - October 2012 Argus WTI Trade Month Swap American Options - Last Trade Date
  • 36 - October 2012 Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) vs. WTI Diff Spread Trade Month Swap American Options - Last Trade Date
  • AY - October 2012 WTS (Argus) Trade Month Swap  - Last Trade Date

I am quite suprised the metals were able to shake off the usually strong shakeout reserved for expiry days like today (the roll is tomorrow). Could see a huge surge in the Metals prices next week (new quarter) and we should see an increase in oil prices next week (new quarter) It's called painting the Quarterly Chart. Uncle Ben has a shinny new printer that he tested at full throttle today and he's gonna use it to stop the prices of everything; from reflecting inflation to the public < ? !

Nice !

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/calendars/expiration-calendar/

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 19:13 | 2830153 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Wait for the fiscal wall to hit. DEMS will NOT cut entitlements and REPUB won't either!

Let's see how housing does after the fiscal wall is struck/.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/housing-and-the-three...

 

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 19:18 | 2830170 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

All I want to know is, when is gold going to shoot above $2000, and silver above $50 -- and stay there, or even keep on going up?

 Bring on the hyperinflation already. I'm worn out with all this waiting and watching zig-zagging lines on charts. "Show me the money!"

Tue, 09/25/2012 - 20:41 | 2830448 mt paul
mt paul's picture

my father laughed at me

when i got a degree 

in alchmey ..

he now admits 

his shortsightedness 

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 09:21 | 2831517 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

IMPENDING SELL OFF...

Due to recent central bank intervention and short covering spikes, these daily charts are extremely overextended and significant correction expected very soon:

SPX, DOW, NASDAQ, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, COPPER, CRUDE, GOLD, SILVER. [USD strength will return]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

http://trader618.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!