Quantifying The 6 Downside And 2 Upside Risks To Global Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

While much attention has been paid to what Draghi has 'talked' about doing, what Bernanke 'is' doing, what EU Leaders 'are not' doing, and what US politicians 'will not' do - the world's risk markets remain on edge. Admittedly, for now, that edge seems biased to the 'we-believe' side of the fence. However, as Deutsche Bank notes, in their wonderfully succinct chart comparing the impact and probability of potential upside and downside risks to global markets, it is economic (or real!) data that should worry investors the most - though we still fear the Kubler-Ross 'denial' stage that in which Spain/Italy/Portugal/Greece remain mired.

 

Risk Matrix:

the shift in (1) is over the past month

 

Downside Risks:

 

Upside Risks:

 

 

Source: Deutsche Bank