Peak Macro Complacency

Tyler Durden's picture


Citigroup's macro risk aversion index just tested record lows (i.e. record high complacenecy levels with regard investors' view of macro uncertainty going forward). Coinciding as it did with Bernanke's all-in moment we wonder if we just saw the 'peak complacency' moment as the wall of worry was officially scaled only to find that the grass is indeed NOT greener on the other side. For sure, it would appear that all the talk of bearish sentiment as the driver of the nextt 'secular' leg in stocks seems just that - 'talk'.



Chart: Bloomberg

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Thu, 09/27/2012 - 10:58 | 2835419 chunga
chunga's picture

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:43 | 2835562 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Yep ... the calming tones of the MSM, wafting through the drug-fazed brains of the grazing sheep, all eyes and fingers glued to their iCrap, is having the desired effect.

Dumb fucking sheep!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 10:58 | 2835423 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Risk is currently the ONLY thing not "priced in" to these ridiculously broken markets.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:12 | 2835455 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture


There's that word again.  Must mean stimulative moment ahead.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:05 | 2835441 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Hynotoad says: do not even think of positioning contrarian to this complacency.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:14 | 2835460 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Wow, 10 hours of toad time.  That's just what I need.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:42 | 2835557 zendome
zendome's picture

I love Hypnotoad...but I don't know why.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:06 | 2835442 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Risk? What is this risk you are talking about? There is no such thing as risk any longer. Ben has made sure that all statement will go out positive and all the world will rejoice in his utopian everybody wins riskless society.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:08 | 2835445 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

exactly. why buy protection of any kind? why hedge? just btfd.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:26 | 2835512 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The risk now is in the dollar, not in equities.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:08 | 2835446 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What, me worry?

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:19 | 2835485 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Did TOTUS dye his skin?

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:25 | 2835507 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

My Her0..asdfwqet-015]-hrwey6,8


(Sorry about that.  I had to smack Bernanke's hands off my keyboard.)

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 12:17 | 2835676 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Barrak Hussain Jackson-Neuman

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:09 | 2835447 toady
toady's picture

Just when I thought complacency couldn't go any higher!

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:18 | 2835469 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey Tyler, any chance you could give a little air play to the Megan McArdle bullshit and the ties to the Kochs?

For all you Liberatarians out there, educate yourself about the Kochs, they are paying the bills and fully expect to be your new de facto masters....

Here is an introduction:

Shortly afterwards, the paid Koch-suckers came out (and I do not doubt there are few here)...


Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:20 | 2835491 adr
adr's picture

This complacency just sent Nat Gas futures up 20% in a week. I have no idea how much it will cost to heat my home this winter if speculators decide to drive nat gas to the moon again.

The variable rate contract is still $2.75 less than the fixed contract per MCF. That is a lot of savings over the fixed contract. But if futures spike massively this month the variable contract could soar over the fixed contract, and then the new fixed contract will skyrocket as well, even though the fixed contract is still $7.49 total.

This farce of a market is making what used to be an easy choice almost impossible. You have to watch the market every day, even if you have nothing invested in it, just to figure out how not to take it in the ass.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:22 | 2835499 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Buffet is long NatGas: he called in a favor. 

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 12:08 | 2835641 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

My power bill has been steadily climbing.  I keep my bills after I pay them.  I was thinking the same thing just yesterday and checked what I was paying a few years ago.  My rates are up 80% in 4 years in a spot check.  Doh! 

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:27 | 2835514 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

All this complancency is boring the crap out of me today. I'm going to go read some FOFOA,that should wake me up.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:55 | 2835606 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Have fun. Just don't miss the rest of the quarter-end hijinx this entire week culminating tomorrow. Any bets for next week? I'm thinking if next week is a snoozer I might as well take a blue pill and chill until November 7.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:51 | 2835589 realtick
realtick's picture

They're Paying For It - Why Aren't You Eating It?

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 11:59 | 2835619 zendome
zendome's picture

The Ben Bernank(e) Song

I'm a Ben Bernank(e) and I'm okay,
I sleep all night and I work all day.
  Chorus: He's a Ben Bernank(e) and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day.
I cut down rates, I debase the dollar,
I piss on retirees.
On Wednesdays I go shopping

And have buttered investors for tea.


He cuts down rates, he debases the dollar,
He pisses on retirees.
On Wednesdays he goes shopping
And has buttered investors for tea.

Next verse someone?

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 12:12 | 2835654 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

"I have altered the definition of risk.  Pray I do not alter it any further."

-Darth Bernanke in "The Fed Strikes Back" circa 2012 AD.

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 14:15 | 2836168 alp
alp's picture

It's all about decoupling of reality (as it always has been) + hope + optimism. Indeed, perception is reality, until it isn't.

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