Peak Macro Complacency

Tyler Durden's picture

Citigroup's macro risk aversion index just tested record lows (i.e. record high complacenecy levels with regard investors' view of macro uncertainty going forward). Coinciding as it did with Bernanke's all-in moment we wonder if we just saw the 'peak complacency' moment as the wall of worry was officially scaled only to find that the grass is indeed NOT greener on the other side. For sure, it would appear that all the talk of bearish sentiment as the driver of the nextt 'secular' leg in stocks seems just that - 'talk'.



Chart: Bloomberg

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chunga's picture

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

i-dog's picture

Yep ... the calming tones of the MSM, wafting through the drug-fazed brains of the grazing sheep, all eyes and fingers glued to their iCrap, is having the desired effect.

Dumb fucking sheep!!!!!!!!!!

Cdad's picture

Risk is currently the ONLY thing not "priced in" to these ridiculously broken markets.

JPM Hater001's picture


There's that word again.  Must mean stimulative moment ahead.

slaughterer's picture

Hynotoad says: do not even think of positioning contrarian to this complacency.

JPM Hater001's picture

Wow, 10 hours of toad time.  That's just what I need.

zendome's picture

I love Hypnotoad...but I don't know why.

Dr. Engali's picture

Risk? What is this risk you are talking about? There is no such thing as risk any longer. Ben has made sure that all statement will go out positive and all the world will rejoice in his utopian everybody wins riskless society.

buzzsaw99's picture

exactly. why buy protection of any kind? why hedge? just btfd.

TheSilverJournal's picture

The risk now is in the dollar, not in equities.

Leopold B. Scotch's picture

My Her0..asdfwqet-015]-hrwey6,8


(Sorry about that.  I had to smack Bernanke's hands off my keyboard.)

toady's picture

Just when I thought complacency couldn't go any higher!

Flakmeister's picture

Hey Tyler, any chance you could give a little air play to the Megan McArdle bullshit and the ties to the Kochs?

For all you Liberatarians out there, educate yourself about the Kochs, they are paying the bills and fully expect to be your new de facto masters....

Here is an introduction:

Shortly afterwards, the paid Koch-suckers came out (and I do not doubt there are few here)...


adr's picture

This complacency just sent Nat Gas futures up 20% in a week. I have no idea how much it will cost to heat my home this winter if speculators decide to drive nat gas to the moon again.

The variable rate contract is still $2.75 less than the fixed contract per MCF. That is a lot of savings over the fixed contract. But if futures spike massively this month the variable contract could soar over the fixed contract, and then the new fixed contract will skyrocket as well, even though the fixed contract is still $7.49 total.

This farce of a market is making what used to be an easy choice almost impossible. You have to watch the market every day, even if you have nothing invested in it, just to figure out how not to take it in the ass.

slaughterer's picture

Buffet is long NatGas: he called in a favor. 

Quinvarius's picture

My power bill has been steadily climbing.  I keep my bills after I pay them.  I was thinking the same thing just yesterday and checked what I was paying a few years ago.  My rates are up 80% in 4 years in a spot check.  Doh! 

Dr. Engali's picture

All this complancency is boring the crap out of me today. I'm going to go read some FOFOA,that should wake me up.

Alea Iactaest's picture

Have fun. Just don't miss the rest of the quarter-end hijinx this entire week culminating tomorrow. Any bets for next week? I'm thinking if next week is a snoozer I might as well take a blue pill and chill until November 7.

zendome's picture

The Ben Bernank(e) Song

I'm a Ben Bernank(e) and I'm okay,
I sleep all night and I work all day.
  Chorus: He's a Ben Bernank(e) and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day.
I cut down rates, I debase the dollar,
I piss on retirees.
On Wednesdays I go shopping

And have buttered investors for tea.


He cuts down rates, he debases the dollar,
He pisses on retirees.
On Wednesdays he goes shopping
And has buttered investors for tea.

Next verse someone?

Quinvarius's picture

"I have altered the definition of risk.  Pray I do not alter it any further."

-Darth Bernanke in "The Fed Strikes Back" circa 2012 AD.

alp's picture

It's all about decoupling of reality (as it always has been) + hope + optimism. Indeed, perception is reality, until it isn't.