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Cue Stagflationary Recession: Chicago PMI Huge Sub-50 Miss, Back To September 2009 Levels; Prices Paid Spikes
QE1, QE2, Operation Twist 1, Operation Twist 2, a Fed balance sheet that is now expected to be $5 trillion in 2 years, and all we get is a lousy manufacturing economy that according to the Chicago PMI just dipped into contraction, or for all intents and purposes, recession, printing its first sub-50 print, 49.7 specifically, on expectations of a 52.8, and down from 53. This was the lowest since September 2009 and the biggest miss in 4 months. Specifically, the employment index came at a two and a half year low, New Orders, Backlogs and Deliveries had their 3 month moving averages at the lowest since Mid 2009, and Capital Equipment printed at a 17 month low. But not all hope is lost: at least prices paid soared for the third consecutive month to 63.2 from 57. Cue not just recession, but stagflationary recession. It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster. Time to start pricing in QE X to be followed 24 hours later by QE X+1. The central bank cartel is starting to lose control.
Employment:
The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.
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fk it, lets choom
Let's get high Amigos.....heh heh.
You just can't make this crap up.
numbers were ALL juiced up. real numbers MUCH worse.
transi....ha ha...tor....ha ha...y sorry I couldn't keep a straight face
"real numbers MUCH worse."
real numbers MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH worse.
There Fixed.
I was gonna fix the economy -- but then I got high...
Chicago PMI Report comments from panelists:
Each month, the survey panelists have the opportunity to add comments to clarify the reported activity of their organization. As appropriate, the report includes comments selected for their insight. No attempt is made to ensure that the nature of the comments represents the survey panel as a whole. Corrections to minor issues such as typographical errors, that do not impact interpretation, may have been made.
1. It seem's that companies are starting to move forward again. Projects that have been on hold are again being discussed.
2. Packaging prices are steady with some pressure or suggestions of increase without real merit.
3. Chemical prices are increasing due to oil and corn in the case of ethanol.
4. Copper moved higher quickly.
5. Market place still seems unsettled. One automotive customer's projections for huge growth this year fizzled out during the 3rd quarter, yet another automotive customer's demands have shown healthy increases.
6. Suppliers seem to be slower than ever with their orders, there seems to be no knowledge or creativity anymore if it isn't on the computer they can't do it.
7. 2012 drought, election year, recent change in Gulf weather all play into short term and long term prices of materials.
8. Overall uncertainty with respect to government policies continues to make us hesitant to make significant investments in new areas.
9. Uncertainty about taxes, regulations, and public policy going into 2013 is causing spending decisions to be deferred or constrained until the picture is clearer.
10. Another month of lower order intake.
https://www.ism-chicago.org/chapters/ism-ismchicago/files/ChicagoPMI-12-09.pdf
Wait, so is bad back to being bad? Or is bad still good? Is good good?
I give up.
Kind of like my youngest son telling me his current girlfriend is "Real Bad"? I don't know if I need to slap him upside the head or pat him on the po-po.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8_FWPUA_I
Cue Obama Depression
I wish he were depressed- maybe he would stop working so hard to screw us all.
Oh, you mean the economy.
Cue Bernanke, the Black Knight..
“It’s only a flesh wound”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
Carter - Stagflation , Iran Hostage Crisis
Obama - Stagflation, Iran Nuclear Crisis
The Fed only THOUGHT they had control.
They do have control Central Banks love debt so they have control of making you into a debt slave
This is why they got out ahead of all the recent bad numbers with QE X...
thank GAWD it's all priced in!
All right, who here stole my hockeystick bull-gasm QE3 rally?
MAN OVERBOARD!!!!!!
Blood sky in the mornin'
Shoulda seen the warnin'
Captain to the Seaman
Man your battle stations
Poseidon's on a mission
'Bout to turn it up to eleven
Captain to the Seaman
Assume crash positions
Toss the extras over
About to take on water
+1 cause Im a boater.
Obviously everyone just needs to get out there and buy an iPhone 5.
...and put it on the credit card.
What we need is MORE DEBT!
Actually, the iPhone5 is boring. I'm going to wait and buy a Nokia Lumia 920....
Market panic in 3...2...1..
What was the print on the "thuggery index"...it's a big component of Chicago's economy, I hear.
Add 30% for the Chicago unions and political machine. It's the cost of doing business.
QE-KITCHENSINK will fix this. What me worry?
2 out of 3?
Sad we split the decision...I expected Thusday to be much more like Friday.
Double or nothing for the close today. I am calling GREEN. You are calling RED.
if it is green put me down for gold above 1800
You think gold is going over 1800 today?
If the market closes green I think gold could outpace the market. I don't know that I am in the closing green camp though.
Fair enough.
This time we'll call 2 oz of silver swapped on the other side of the collapse at the first annual ZH convention.
Good luck Mortimer.
Voting you down for being wrong.
... not that there's anything wrong with being wrong ...
i plussed ya for the kitchensink thing
The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.
maybe so. but that doesn't rule out the hope and change promised for the next four does it?
does it?
d...
never mind
if obummer wins he can just blame the last adiminstration.......oh wait
no need to fret. mortgage rates at 3.25% instead of 3.4% thanks to money printing v3.0 will surely solve everything.
I understand Lambroghini is now offering 0% financing. Think that will boost sales?
Im waiting for zero. Trends tell me we will hit it shortly...
Or was that going to be the value of our money...
I'll have to noodle that one for a while.
I bought a Blackberry. Did I damage the economy?
You're clearly a terrorist.
Did you "buy" it outright or finance it through a 2-year carrier plan? Kinda like when people say they "bought" a house...
I can't imagine what one single blackberry is good for.
I still find them tasty in any quantity, though.
I for one, would like to see QE4 alongside the open-ended nature of QE3. QE3 is like a LTS operating system that will be around for awhile, but we can still upgrade to QE4, QE5, and QE6 in the meantime!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yeah that is it.... QEIV double layed on top of QE infinity, yeah.. that will work.
Mr. Kotter says that the Federal Reserve's credit rating is an "F-plus, and the plus is for encouragement"...
http://youtu.be/tUYqwR1vc5Q
Here is Change long before Obama.
"We need a better Drummer!"
(For those interested it's Welcome Back Kotter material)
Too bad it's not like Star Wars... where at least we know Episode IV, V, and VI are going to be awesome....
Bernanke: OK, who's got the keys to the chopper??
Let's see, how did we get out of this in the 70's? We raised rates. Go ahead motherfuckers, raises rates again, I double dogs dare you, you stupid cunts.
It will be a very long time, LoPdood, before people realize the issue of it requiring more BTUs to get a barrel of BTUs out of the ground than it ever has before -- and this is and always has been the engine behind all activity -- and economics is and always has been bullshit.
Buy farmland, if you can find anyone fool enough to trade it for dollars -- or gold. Nothing but farmland has any value.
I'm not sure why you keep harping on farmland so much... most people can grow a sufficient amount of their nutritional needs on a suburb lot (.2 ac). The other issue is that should farmers become too successful, they'll be met with... more than a few political hurdles (firing squads/redistribution).
The only thing you need to know is that prudence will be punished. If you can mitigate the appearance of your prudence, then power to you.
PS, farmland is selling for dollars all day, every day... and it will continue to do so... stagflation puts necessary ceilings on the commercial value of farmland in that margins get squeezed to the point where price increases in the land can no longer be justified. Grow all the food you want, but if no one can afford it... We're getting close to the point where margins are nil (far better yields can be had in other endeavors).
Good luck defending that surburban lot when everything goes bidless and the dollar dies. Have your tribe in order bitches and go long sharecropping.
BTUs is a bad measure. Use calories or Joules. How many Joules are invested compared to how many Joules are recovered. BTUs varies depending on the molecule.
LoP, Again with the BTUs....joules, calories and btus are all interchangeable.....they are all units of energy.
please review your physics books....next think you will say is there is no such thing as 'fossil fuels'. (abiotic oil).
The banks are not in a position to survive a rate raise. If there was a rate raise, it would only be for the public. Banks need free money.
Any number generated by a government agency must be taken with a huge grain of salt thanks to constant lying by BLS. There is no penalty for lying. I expect the real number to be much worse than this.
Just thank goodness the Fed has had a GOOD fiscal year and are in a position to carry on.... /sarc/
As a side note, perhaps someone should inform the Daily Beast that the Fed is NOT part of the Federal government? http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/25/how-the-fed-has-earned-...
Prices are going much higher. Especially in food considering the drought. With QE to infinity and dollar devalution we should be seeing some major double digit inflation in the future.
The government cant and won't report the true CPI because so many obligations are tied to it.
Bernanke and the fed can't pull liquidity, it would tank the stock market.
Major stagflation.
damn. Will be worse than stagflation because interest rates can not be raised (as they were in the 70's) everything on a "market" will go bidless while everything else of real value will be hoarded (not sold at any price), hence the hyperinflationary death of the dollar.
Without a viable capital market that accurately prices capital (reflected in interest rates or the true cost of capital) it is game fucking over, that is where we are, nothing like the 70's.
They've got stagflation in Europe. Apparently it's catchy.
This news is bittersweet. It openly refutes the lies that TPTB (Fed, Prez, Congress, MSM, etc.) have been spreading for years, but it also reminds us that a SHTF moment is rapidly approaching and innocent or knowledgable people who tried to avoid this crisis will be affected by it. The Fed never had control; it created the illusion of control and a loose confederacy of stock market operators and commodity brokers/traders helped the Fed promote that illusion while the USG paid people not to work and funded EBT cards. The end of that illusion is upon us.
Therein lies the rub Cursive. We never left and the problems never went away. You can bet there will be no call of recession before the elections no matter how bad the numbers coming in are. Obama will get reelected and we will continue down this road. The Fed can dump all the money it likes, unemployment is not going to change unless your looking for part time work or lower paying full time work.
What boggles my mind is the sheeple will buy into this illusion of it is different this time. It is not different we just have better propaganda machines and easier credit. Truth be known, the EBT stats are probably grossly underestimated as well. The SHTF moment will not happen until we either go broke trying to support the economy or benefits start getting cut. Price inflation will only effect those not on the government teat. The government can always increase the amount on the EBT cards. The elderly, people scratching out a living not on some government program will take it in the ass as they will at some point in time no longer be able to support themselves or their families. Wallah most will end up like the rest on some sort of program as the Fed destroys our currency and could care less about employment and instead is bailing out thier buddies and the politicians that got us to where we are today. The Fed's statment of QE until employment is better is just more smoke and mirrors to bail themselves out.
I think a war will be started to cull the herds of sheeple. Those that remain may wish they had died when certain parts of the world will no longer support life as we know it today.
Maybe this is finally the big moment. Now, like zh said, everyone can call total bullshit on the economic recovery and the fed supposedly helping. Maybe the fed finally says they are out of bullets and they were firing blanks all along. They stop buying bonds and rates inflict reality on people. Nah.
Ben B is fucked, keeping the goverment in business requires destroying its citizens.
Don matta..Obama by ma cell phone!
The messed up thing is that the government really is buying them cellphones.
But the people are still happy..confident...all is la la land....see the Michigan sentiment index....what the hell....I guess they will change their mind when the pink slips a commin....
True, but unfortunately all Obama cares about is to hold this shit together till the election day.
Tragedy is it won't be any different if the sectarian wins.
(OT: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-postal-default-second-5b-075128932.html?l=1)
Ok, so what time does the Fed cued relief rally come in today? One of these days this shit is going to blow up in their fucking faces and I can't wait. Of course I think most of us have done died with anticipation already.
Funny, markets not even down a hundred and it's labeled "sheer panic". What will they call several multi-hundred down days? End of the world? LMAO fuck these clowns.
It's end of the quarter. the plot line said there would be a big ramp up today
The new plot line is 'people are just taking their profits because everyone is making sooooo much money!11!"
Everybody is trying to front run the day-after the end-of-the-quarter to lock in some profits....
There have been other indices re manufacturing that have been printing in the negative for three consecutive prints. They were ignored, as will this.
I honestly don't believe this a harbinger of stagflation. I think the Fed is praying for stagflation to hold. There is a pause right before cars filled with screaming people plunges headlong down the roller-coaster rails. The Fed keeps moving the rails until there is metal fatigue and they break. I think that's where we're at right now.
Yeah this is even stranger than a rollercoaster. At least you see ahead of you. I went snowboarding in whistler once, was above the tree line and it was snowing. Could not see shit. I stood up to look and quickly crashed into someone. I told them to be careful. They said "you were the one moving". I thought they were being sarcastic. Two seconds later someone else crashed into both of us and told us to be more careful. I think thats where we are at. Hitting brick walls at 50mph and never seeing a thing.
Yup a great description. Either way we are not stagnating, we are rapidly moving towards great pain.
I agree and it is what makes me think I will wake up one day and put on cnbc and the screen will be blank with the emergency broadcast signal beeping with a message stating the president will be making an unscheduled announcement soon.
You still watch CNBC ?
volume off
In two days the support for the post-QE downtrend crosses the support for the summer uptrend. The market is safe from catastophe until then. Hope everyone has a nice weekend. :)
We're going fishing. Maybe we should take more fishing poles and bigger coolers. Have a great weekend Fred. :)
BRB. I'm going to Aldis to buy more canned food. Got food?
but but CNBC told me that QE was "stimulative".? they dont lie do they? oh well i guess 4 trillion just doesnt get what it used to. transitory..
"It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster."
I would never underestimate The Man's ability to fudge the data and lie to us all. I am also anticipating the MSM will try to spin all economic data reported before the POTUS election.
Now Ben can act all surprised and wonder why having followed the Japanese playbook, nothing is improving.
Let's create inflation, impoverish savers for decades to impair capital formation, create tons of fiscal and monetary uncertainty and regulation, then wonder in amazement why good things aren't happening.
"The central bank cartel is starting to lose control."
Ah, music to my ears...
The scary part is that they don't know they've lost control. They will now just dive further into the desperate moves category to show us all that they are right and we didn't go to Princeton.
Sad but true mate.
Usually by the time the Fed acts they are already 6-12 months too late.
At least its very clear now why Bernanke and gange went all in QE+kitchen sink. Q is when do the equity markets get that this time the shit is about to hit the fan.
Will Markets Go Overnight From ‘Don’t Fight the Fed’ to ‘Pushing on a String’?
http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=5463
bbbbut FB is up almost 6% today. Certainly things must be getting better?
the chicago fed president is known as an uber DOVE (what are bubbles?). why do you believe any of the government stats? maybe the chicago fed's president wanted to publish contractionary numbers in order to have cover for his desire to QEternity. wouldn't you expect a given fed bank region to produce data that supports its own president's monetary policy opinions?
There must be some kind of way out of here
Said the Joker to the Thief
"a pony has to be in here somewhere" the small boy said
head and shoulders chart ^^
Combine the Chicago report with yesterdays' durable goods orders CRASH and BURN and we have a disater on our hands.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/this-is-a-recovery-manufacturing-shrinks-to-lowest-level-since-oct-2009/
Whens O gonna get his War? These numbers are NOT good for his re-election. They can't wait til after the US election now, right?
Thats what this country needs to get it pumped. A commone enemy. [sarc] inbedded.
Why do I have a vision of The Bernank in a stiletto bra singing,
"We are living in a nominal world, and I am a nominal girl!"?
CNBC says consumer spending rebounded thanks to higher gasoline prices. Talk about spin.
And in related news, driving a nail into your skull through both temples has an immediate cooling effect on the brain.
According to the Axe (David Axelrod) these negative data points are the direct result (fault) of the Republican Congress for not passing Obama's Job's Recovery bill designed to hire/save 100,000 teachers and first responders (labor union jobs).
Like last week, MSM will ignore these negative data points and focus on buoyant consumer confidence and spending numbers, and how they relate to the 10 point lead Obama has in "key battleground states" (oversampling of the Democratic vote not withstanding).
MSM spin: Improving Economy = Happy Voters = 10 point lead in polls
Pravda should have taken lessons from our MSM. The Soviet Union would still be intact.
Then again, maybe not, for the Russians were not so dulled by drugs nor bribed by ever-growing entitlements.
But all of that ends when our Reserve Currency dies.
"The central bank cartel is starting to lose control."
Starting? Very generous of you Tyler.
Consumer sentiment gains to four-month high in September(Reuters)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-gains-four-month-135836...
It's unreal. Simply unreal.
Economic indicators are easy to spot if you know where to look. I stopped by the thrift store today, prices are up 100% from 2009. No matter how much the fed doles out to their bankster butt buddies, when people at the lowest end of the socioeconomic scale can no longer afford to clothe and feed themselves we've reached the end of the line folks. It's all downhill from here until there's a new game to play.
Stagflation: "This is the way the world ends; this is the way the world ends; not with a
/Edit.
The world is taught to follow more "popular" economic indicators. This won't make any sense to anyone away from the markets. More iPhones please!