Cue Stagflationary Recession: Chicago PMI Huge Sub-50 Miss, Back To September 2009 Levels; Prices Paid Spikes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

QE1, QE2, Operation Twist 1, Operation Twist 2, a Fed balance sheet that is now expected to be $5 trillion in 2 years, and all we get is a lousy manufacturing economy that according to the Chicago PMI just dipped into contraction, or for all intents and purposes, recession, printing its first sub-50 print, 49.7 specifically, on expectations of a 52.8, and down from 53. This was the lowest since September 2009 and the biggest miss in 4 months. Specifically, the employment index came at a two and a half year low, New Orders, Backlogs and Deliveries had their 3 month moving averages at the lowest since Mid 2009, and Capital Equipment printed at a 17 month low. But not all hope is lost: at least prices paid soared for the third consecutive month to 63.2 from 57. Cue not just recession, but stagflationary recession. It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster. Time to start pricing in QE X to be followed 24 hours later by QE X+1. The central bank cartel is starting to lose control.

 

Employment:

The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.

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Fri, 09/28/2012 - 09:59 | 2838531 DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

fk it, lets choom

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:04 | 2838538 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let's get high Amigos.....heh heh.

 

You just can't make this crap up.

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:21 | 2838664 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

numbers were ALL juiced up. real numbers MUCH worse. 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:24 | 2838673 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

transi....ha ha...tor....ha ha...y  sorry I couldn't keep a straight face

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:24 | 2838674 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"real numbers MUCH worse."

real numbers MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH worse.

 

There Fixed.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:26 | 2838693 mr1963
mr1963's picture

I was gonna fix the economy -- but then I got high...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:43 | 2838789 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Chicago PMI Report comments from panelists:


Each month, the survey panelists have the opportunity to add comments to clarify the reported activity of their organization. As appropriate, the report includes comments selected for their insight. No attempt is made to ensure that the nature of the comments represents the survey panel as a whole. Corrections to minor issues such as typographical errors, that do not impact interpretation, may have been made.

1. It seem's that companies are starting to move forward again. Projects that have been on hold are again being discussed.
2. Packaging prices are steady with some pressure or suggestions of increase without real merit.
3. Chemical prices are increasing due to oil and corn in the case of ethanol.
4. Copper moved higher quickly.
5. Market place still seems unsettled. One automotive customer's projections for huge growth this year fizzled out during the 3rd quarter, yet another automotive customer's demands have shown healthy increases.
6. Suppliers seem to be slower than ever with their orders, there seems to be no knowledge or creativity anymore if it isn't on the computer they can't do it.
7. 2012 drought, election year, recent change in Gulf weather all play into short term and long term prices of materials.
8. Overall uncertainty with respect to government policies continues to make us hesitant to make significant investments in new areas.
9. Uncertainty about taxes, regulations, and public policy going into 2013 is causing spending decisions to be deferred or constrained until the picture is clearer.
10. Another month of lower order intake.

https://www.ism-chicago.org/chapters/ism-ismchicago/files/ChicagoPMI-12-09.pdf 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:54 | 2838850 FoxMulder
FoxMulder's picture

Wait, so is bad back to being bad? Or is bad still good? Is good good?

 

I give up.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:58 | 2838874 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Kind of like my youngest son telling me his current girlfriend is "Real Bad"? I don't know if I need to slap him upside the head or pat him on the po-po.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:28 | 2838715 LMAOLORI
Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:36 | 2838753 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I wish he were depressed- maybe he would stop working so hard to screw us all.

Oh, you mean the economy.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:56 | 2838862 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Cue Bernanke, the Black Knight..

“It’s only a flesh wound”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:08 | 2838935 depression
depression's picture

Carter - Stagflation , Iran Hostage Crisis

Obama - Stagflation, Iran Nuclear Crisis

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:04 | 2838563 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

The Fed only THOUGHT they had control.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:34 | 2838740 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

They do have control Central Banks love debt so they have control of making you into a debt slave

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:39 | 2838768 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

This is why they got out ahead of all the recent bad numbers with QE X...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:11 | 2838613 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

thank GAWD it's all priced in!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:14 | 2838623 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

All right, who here stole my hockeystick bull-gasm QE3 rally?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:00 | 2838533 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

MAN OVERBOARD!!!!!!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:20 | 2838658 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Blood sky in the mornin'
Shoulda seen the warnin'

Captain to the Seaman
Man your battle stations
Poseidon's on a mission
'Bout to turn it up to eleven

Captain to the Seaman
Assume crash positions
Toss the extras over
About to take on water

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:25 | 2838684 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

+1 cause Im a boater.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:01 | 2838542 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Obviously everyone just needs to get out there and buy an iPhone 5.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:05 | 2838575 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...and put it on the credit card.

What we need is MORE DEBT!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:12 | 2838954 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Actually, the iPhone5 is boring.  I'm going to wait and buy a Nokia Lumia 920....

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:02 | 2838543 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Market panic in 3...2...1..

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:02 | 2838553 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What was the print on the "thuggery index"...it's a big component of Chicago's economy, I hear.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:08 | 2838592 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Add 30% for the Chicago unions and political machine.  It's the cost of doing business.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:03 | 2838555 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

QE-KITCHENSINK will fix this.  What me worry? 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:26 | 2838694 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

2 out of 3?

 

Sad we split the decision...I expected Thusday to be much more like Friday.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:37 | 2838759 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Double or nothing for the close today.  I am calling GREEN.  You are calling RED.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:40 | 2838778 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if it is green put me down for gold above 1800

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:56 | 2838864 fuu
fuu's picture

You think gold is going over 1800 today?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:04 | 2838905 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If the market closes green I think gold could outpace the market. I don't know that I am in the closing green camp though.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:22 | 2839255 fuu
fuu's picture

Fair enough.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:05 | 2839168 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

This time we'll call 2 oz of silver swapped on the other side of the collapse at the first annual ZH convention.

Good luck Mortimer.

Sat, 09/29/2012 - 00:39 | 2841092 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Voting you down for being wrong.

... not that there's anything wrong with being wrong ...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:32 | 2838733 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

i plussed ya for the kitchensink thing

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:03 | 2838556 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.

 

maybe so.  but that doesn't rule out the hope and change promised for the next four does it?

does it?

d...

never mind

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:30 | 2838692 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

if obummer wins he can just blame the last adiminstration.......oh wait

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:04 | 2838559 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

no need to fret.  mortgage rates at 3.25% instead of 3.4% thanks to money printing v3.0 will surely solve everything.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:09 | 2838604 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I understand Lambroghini is now offering 0% financing.  Think that will boost sales?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:27 | 2838700 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Im waiting for zero.  Trends tell me we will hit it shortly...

Or was that going to be the value of our money...

I'll have to noodle that one for a while.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:03 | 2838560 Sutton
Sutton's picture

I bought a Blackberry.  Did I damage the economy?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:06 | 2838580 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

You're clearly a terrorist.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:07 | 2838589 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Did you "buy" it outright or finance it through a 2-year carrier plan?  Kinda like when people say they "bought" a house...

Sat, 09/29/2012 - 00:43 | 2841099 akak
akak's picture

I can't imagine what one single blackberry is good for.

I still find them tasty in any quantity, though.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:05 | 2838564 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I for one, would like to see QE4 alongside the open-ended nature of QE3. QE3 is like a LTS operating system that will be around for awhile, but we can still upgrade to QE4, QE5, and QE6 in the meantime!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:07 | 2838583 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

yeah that is it.... QEIV double layed on top of QE infinity, yeah.. that will work.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 10:10 | 2838609 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Mr. Kotter says that the Federal Reserve's credit rating is an "F-plus, and the plus is for encouragement"...

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