Cue Stagflationary Recession: Chicago PMI Huge Sub-50 Miss, Back To September 2009 Levels; Prices Paid Spikes

Tyler Durden's picture

QE1, QE2, Operation Twist 1, Operation Twist 2, a Fed balance sheet that is now expected to be $5 trillion in 2 years, and all we get is a lousy manufacturing economy that according to the Chicago PMI just dipped into contraction, or for all intents and purposes, recession, printing its first sub-50 print, 49.7 specifically, on expectations of a 52.8, and down from 53. This was the lowest since September 2009 and the biggest miss in 4 months. Specifically, the employment index came at a two and a half year low, New Orders, Backlogs and Deliveries had their 3 month moving averages at the lowest since Mid 2009, and Capital Equipment printed at a 17 month low. But not all hope is lost: at least prices paid soared for the third consecutive month to 63.2 from 57. Cue not just recession, but stagflationary recession. It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster. Time to start pricing in QE X to be followed 24 hours later by QE X+1. The central bank cartel is starting to lose control.

 

Employment:

The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.

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DrDinkus's picture

fk it, lets choom

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let's get high Amigos.....heh heh.

 

You just can't make this crap up.

 

vast-dom's picture

numbers were ALL juiced up. real numbers MUCH worse. 

spastic_colon's picture

transi....ha ha...tor....ha ha...y  sorry I couldn't keep a straight face

JPM Hater001's picture

"real numbers MUCH worse."

real numbers MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH worse.

 

There Fixed.

mr1963's picture

I was gonna fix the economy -- but then I got high...

Ying-Yang's picture

Chicago PMI Report comments from panelists:


Each month, the survey panelists have the opportunity to add comments to clarify the reported activity of their organization. As appropriate, the report includes comments selected for their insight. No attempt is made to ensure that the nature of the comments represents the survey panel as a whole. Corrections to minor issues such as typographical errors, that do not impact interpretation, may have been made.

1. It seem's that companies are starting to move forward again. Projects that have been on hold are again being discussed.
2. Packaging prices are steady with some pressure or suggestions of increase without real merit.
3. Chemical prices are increasing due to oil and corn in the case of ethanol.
4. Copper moved higher quickly.
5. Market place still seems unsettled. One automotive customer's projections for huge growth this year fizzled out during the 3rd quarter, yet another automotive customer's demands have shown healthy increases.
6. Suppliers seem to be slower than ever with their orders, there seems to be no knowledge or creativity anymore if it isn't on the computer they can't do it.
7. 2012 drought, election year, recent change in Gulf weather all play into short term and long term prices of materials.
8. Overall uncertainty with respect to government policies continues to make us hesitant to make significant investments in new areas.
9. Uncertainty about taxes, regulations, and public policy going into 2013 is causing spending decisions to be deferred or constrained until the picture is clearer.
10. Another month of lower order intake.

https://www.ism-chicago.org/chapters/ism-ismchicago/files/ChicagoPMI-12-09.pdf 

FoxMulder's picture

Wait, so is bad back to being bad? Or is bad still good? Is good good?

 

I give up.

Ying-Yang's picture

Kind of like my youngest son telling me his current girlfriend is "Real Bad"? I don't know if I need to slap him upside the head or pat him on the po-po.

JPM Hater001's picture

I wish he were depressed- maybe he would stop working so hard to screw us all.

Oh, you mean the economy.

Manthong's picture

Cue Bernanke, the Black Knight..

“It’s only a flesh wound”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4

depression's picture

Carter - Stagflation , Iran Hostage Crisis

Obama - Stagflation, Iran Nuclear Crisis

FL_Conservative's picture

The Fed only THOUGHT they had control.

LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

They do have control Central Banks love debt so they have control of making you into a debt slave

MachoMan's picture

This is why they got out ahead of all the recent bad numbers with QE X...

aint no fortunate son's picture

thank GAWD it's all priced in!

slaughterer's picture

All right, who here stole my hockeystick bull-gasm QE3 rally?

SelfGov's picture

Blood sky in the mornin'
Shoulda seen the warnin'

Captain to the Seaman
Man your battle stations
Poseidon's on a mission
'Bout to turn it up to eleven

Captain to the Seaman
Assume crash positions
Toss the extras over
About to take on water

Debtonation's picture

Obviously everyone just needs to get out there and buy an iPhone 5.

EscapeKey's picture

...and put it on the credit card.

What we need is MORE DEBT!

RSBriggs's picture

Actually, the iPhone5 is boring.  I'm going to wait and buy a Nokia Lumia 920....

Number 156's picture

Market panic in 3...2...1..

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What was the print on the "thuggery index"...it's a big component of Chicago's economy, I hear.

yogibear's picture

Add 30% for the Chicago unions and political machine.  It's the cost of doing business.

slaughterer's picture

QE-KITCHENSINK will fix this.  What me worry? 

JPM Hater001's picture

2 out of 3?

 

Sad we split the decision...I expected Thusday to be much more like Friday.

slaughterer's picture

Double or nothing for the close today.  I am calling GREEN.  You are calling RED.

fonzannoon's picture

if it is green put me down for gold above 1800

fuu's picture

You think gold is going over 1800 today?

fonzannoon's picture

If the market closes green I think gold could outpace the market. I don't know that I am in the closing green camp though.

JPM Hater001's picture

This time we'll call 2 oz of silver swapped on the other side of the collapse at the first annual ZH convention.

Good luck Mortimer.

Urban Roman's picture

Voting you down for being wrong.

... not that there's anything wrong with being wrong ...

spastic_colon's picture

i plussed ya for the kitchensink thing

bigdumbnugly's picture

The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.

 

maybe so.  but that doesn't rule out the hope and change promised for the next four does it?

does it?

d...

never mind

spastic_colon's picture

if obummer wins he can just blame the last adiminstration.......oh wait

101 years and counting's picture

no need to fret.  mortgage rates at 3.25% instead of 3.4% thanks to money printing v3.0 will surely solve everything.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I understand Lambroghini is now offering 0% financing.  Think that will boost sales?

JPM Hater001's picture

Im waiting for zero.  Trends tell me we will hit it shortly...

Or was that going to be the value of our money...

I'll have to noodle that one for a while.

Sutton's picture

I bought a Blackberry.  Did I damage the economy?

EscapeKey's picture

You're clearly a terrorist.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Did you "buy" it outright or finance it through a 2-year carrier plan?  Kinda like when people say they "bought" a house...

akak's picture

I can't imagine what one single blackberry is good for.

I still find them tasty in any quantity, though.

dwdollar's picture

I for one, would like to see QE4 alongside the open-ended nature of QE3. QE3 is like a LTS operating system that will be around for awhile, but we can still upgrade to QE4, QE5, and QE6 in the meantime!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

yeah that is it.... QEIV double layed on top of QE infinity, yeah.. that will work.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Mr. Kotter says that the Federal Reserve's credit rating is an "F-plus, and the plus is for encouragement"...