Gold And Silver Lead Everything Week-, Month-, Quarter-, & Year-To-Date

Tyler Durden's picture

It has been a volatile week but equities have drifted lower overall with today's early going retracing all of yesterday's gains only to bounce post Europe's close (once again) on the farce of the Spanish bank audit. Reality sunk in into the close though a glance at S&P 500 futures in the last 30 minutes suggest more V-Fib than trend (as VWAP came into play amid heavy volume at the close). EUR weakness (and USD strength) lifted DXY to a 0.75% gain on the week (almost mirroring Copper and Oil's 0.9% loss on the week) but Gold and Silver popped into the close to end the week unchanged (notably outperforming other asset classes). Treasuries held on to 5bps (5Y) to 12bps (10y & 30Y) yield compression on the week - with some volatility this afternoon bringing them back off their low yields of the week. Utilities ended the week up 1% as the only green sector with Tech, Materials, and Energy all -1.5 to 2% on the week. VIX ended the week up around 1.6 vols (in line with stocks at around 15.6%) and credit continued to lag equities modestly. Cross-asset-class correlations fell away a little this afternoon as stocks meandered but broadly risk-assets suggest some more downside to equities.

US equity indices post-QE are mixed with the Trannies down hardest followed by Russell 2000 weakness and a pack of the Dow, S&P, and NDX at around +0.25 to +0.75%...


Interestingly on the week, each time the USD fell back to unchanged, it went bid again... as the EUR lost over 1% against the USD this week


Gold and Silver rolled over a little this afternoon - after outperforming all week - but ended the week unchanged...


Silver and Gold have been the big winners across multiple time frames this year.



S&P 500 sectoral performance has been highly volatile but broadly speaking - until QEternity - Tech and Financials have led. Utilities have been consistently low vol and low return. Financials, Tech, and Discretionary remain the best performers of the year by a long way...


Across the capital structure - equities were a little exuberant into the close - relative to credit/rates/vol (HYG/TLT/VXX)...


Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context


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VonManstein's picture




slaughterer's picture

Gold/silver will retreat slowly for the next few months helped along by manipulation and Paulson & co.  They will still go up, but later.



TheSilverJournal's picture

Slaughterer, the USD jumped .5% today so here's your chance to get back into the PM's. Silver's prob going to hit $80 by January.

LawsofPhysics's picture

wait for it, more dollar strength coming.  Orginally read the headline as Gold, Silver, and Lead...

that's it I am out.

Dr Benway's picture

I read it as "Gold, Silver and Lead is Everything".. 

AldousHuxley's picture

since the bail out in 2009


S&P500 +85%

Gold +84%



1 yr performance

Gold 10%

AAPL 70%

AOL 200%   ....yup they are still around.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Uhm...which bailout?  The 1st one TARP in the Fall of '08 when gold went to $700?

Gold is up 2.5Xs from there.

The S&P made a devilish low of 666, but this in the Spring of '09 (let's also note how gold bottomed 1st, making it a better deflation play than the index).  Now it is at 1440.  A retrun of 2X.

Gold is winning.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hey, LH, it's good to be back and to see you writing again (it was hard for me to stay connected in Italy).

Yes, gold is winning.  But, there is a side affect: Italians are giving up their gold WHOLESALE, we just got back from Italy, and Tyler's article of a month or so ago about them giving up their gold is TRUE.  See the pictures, all over the place, and big business:

CheapBastard's picture

My GLD is up 250%.

My SLV over 300%.

My house down 42% and continues to drop.

'Nuff said.



Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dollar strength.... that like Kardasian intellect?

TheSilverJournal's picture

Time tells all, my friend. So far you were dead wrong when a few days ago you thought the big selloff was starting right then and there.

slaughterer's picture

Maybe I am wrong.  But gold/silverbugs have had too easy a ride the last few weeks.  

TheSilverJournal's picture

Silver's going to a min. $1,000 in two years. The ride's going to be pretty easy. Jump on board and enjoy it.

akak's picture

Surely you are not referring to $1000/oz in today's dollars, are you?

Will this $1000/oz silver be accompanied by $50/gallon milk?

TheSilverJournal's picture

Yes, akak, silver is set to hit $1,000 in real terms.

How, you may ask?

Fiat is set to collapse and gold is set to hit at min. $10,000. And with all of that pressure being driven into PMs and the current dynamics of silver, the silver/gold ratio is set to move down to at least 10 to 1. Wala...that puts silver at $1,000.

More than likely silver will go much higher than $1,000. Gold will likely go higher than $10,000 and the silver/gold ratio will likely compress to less than 10 to 1.

Dr Benway's picture

You didn't answer the question though.


How much will milk be?

TheSilverJournal's picture

Sure I did. The definition of real terms is measuring in today's dollars. So, how much is milk today? $4?

Dr Benway's picture

You envisage hyperinflation and a collapsing economy, yet stable production costs for the dairy sector?

TheSilverJournal's picture

Now you're getting a little nitpicky. Some assets will rise in price (in real terms for all of you who need me to state it, which is kind of juvinle on a financial blog because then everything must be written with a disclaimer and it takes a lot longer to type something and make a point and readers of a financial blog should be able to comprehend what "real terms" is) and some prices will fall. Assets bid up by cheap credit (housing, commercial property and equipment, cars, labor can even go in this category) will fall while other assets not bid up by cheap credit (food and energy) will rise. So, yeah, milk will probably go to $8 while a $1M house drops to $100K.

AldousHuxley's picture

you don't need milk


drink water



Bay of Pigs's picture

And you can't eat gold either...

TheSilverJournal's picture

It's also pretty tough to eat dollars, especially the digital sort...

Bay of Pigs's picture

Wow. Thought the <sarc> was pretty clear there...

TheSilverJournal's picture

Ha, I guess it should be, but you never know with some people.

Dr Benway's picture

So you say that the cost of everything that is produced, all consumer items, will double in real terms. That means half as much milk for your ounce of silver.

akak's picture

I would love to see that happen --- well, though, I would probably be less than overjoyed with all the inevitable and less than desirable circumstances leading to it.

TheSilverJournal's picture

Worldwide hyperinflation won't be a pretty thing.

My question is, how won't silver hit at least $1,000. How won't the USD go into hpyerinflation very soon? Rates are already negative and the US is way past broke, only being held up by huge deficits, huge government, and cheap credit. The Fed is going to have to increase the printing faster and faster to keep rates down.

Is the USD not the world's reserve currency and won't the hyperinflation of the USD basically bring down all fiat/bonds/assets bid up by credit. These are the biggest markets in the world and they're going to get wiped out. The flood of wealth out of these assets will try to flow somewhere to try to save investors/savers from being being completely wiped out. Where will the wealth flow to?

savagegoose's picture

because the rest of the world will dump the USD before silver hits $1k. China is already suffering being pegged to USD with inflation and  will HAVE to float , because they get raising costs ,. they have to  eventually bail on keepin usa as a markket for cheap goods. as the costs for everything in china go up.

Thats the biggest clincher, bi latteral trade agreements are the start  china has with  many countries now, gold with iran for oil.  currency with russia, and many sth american currencies.


Jungle Jim's picture

Two years is too long. I don't have another two years. Time's running out real fast. I'll have to either sell my childhood home to pay the nursing home, or buy it myself (and give them the money just the same), within three or at best four months. Maybe sooner.

The only way I can save the house is to buy it myself. The only way I can raise the money to buy it is to sell my physical silver. Right now, at current market value, if I sold every last ounce of it, it wouldn't quite be enough. I'd have to dip into the physical gold too.

If silver would go up, like everyone has been saying it would any day now for years, I'd be able to buy the house and keep it in the family. If silver would go up enough, fast enough, I might not even have to sell all of the silver. Maybe I could retain a third of it. Maybe even half.

But I can't wait two years. It's happening now.

Roughly a third of my "wealth" is in gold, a third in silver, and a third in real estate (the house). No matter what happens, I am going to lose at least one third of it, basically in one fell swoop, as they say. And that is a best case scenario.

Nage42's picture

If you've had silver for 2 years then you've had from $10 -> ~$40 boost... are you concerned that this is not enough?!?  Quading your purchasing power across 1/3rd of your net wealth has got to be seen as "winning!" mate.


Jungle Jim's picture

Well, I started buying silver in the last quarter of 2010, in the low thirties, IIRC. Roughly $15,700 per Monster Box, IIRC. I didn't even start on gold until shortly after that. If I had not already been desperate I would not have even bothered with either. So, now, here I am. "Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am."

AlphaWolfe's picture

SERIOUSLY - Sell the house, buy silver/gold, when the shtf - buy the house back for pennies on the dullar. Silver will not make a real move until at least after the election (January) and possibly for up to a year from Obamas re-election. Likely silver will continue to be artificially low to keep the hurt on while the depression worsens to shake out the weak hands. And when families sell off all their heirloom jewelery because they are hurting so bad - then it will soar. Silver will continue to be manipulatively kept low until the middle-class relinquishes all their true wealth then the real onslaught will begin! - Housing is guranteed to be available while food may be scarce would you rather have your family home and no silver to barter with and no food in the cupboards or vice versa??? We purchased a house invested 40k into on top of the purchase price with a pleathora of upgrades and its barely above its originally purchase price - but instead of waiting for it to take a REAL HIT - I'm going to let it go, downsize, stock up and put myself into a position to at least ride out the storm and hopefully even propser for other peoples il-advised or non- actions.

killallthefiat's picture

I'll take it.  20 gallons of milk for an ouce of silver.  Now I can by 8.  Only 5 if its organic.

Dr Benway's picture

More likely we will have less milk to drink when the economy collapses, not more. Of course in the long run the correction is necessary for us to have milk at all.


But it won't be fun and games. Having saved PMs might make you comparatively 'rich' in this brave new world, but your living standards will still be drastically reduced.


Buy PMs to preserve wealth as well as possible, not for speculating in the expectation $10,000 gold will make you rich. You are falling into the very trap you ostensibly try to avoid.

TheSilverJournal's picture

I don't think you understand how much milk there is (will be) and how little gold and silver there is (I would say will be as well, but the supply for gold in particular changes very very slowly). Gold and silver will purchase you lots and lots of milk.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Let's focus this discussion on priorities:

When Obamafone gets cancelled and people are hungry they won't starve, they will work.  There will be a move from the consumer economy towards a producer economy. People will be milking cows for work. 

There will be food to eat because there is labor to produce it ready in the wings.

Talleyrand's picture

Absent capital goods and cheap oil, they could work 24/7 and still not feed themselves. What will unskilled and unfit labor, by itself, produce and distribute?  Nothing. Well, maybe violence - for a little while.

Dr Benway's picture

After an economic collapse output falls catastrophically, per definition. There will be much less of everything. You are 100% wrong.

TheSilverJournal's picture

So you think that we're having a money problem and real money will only gain as much value as every other commodity?

Think again.

When the crackup boom kicks in, much more wealth will flow into silver than into milk.

Dr Benway's picture

That's a moronic argument since milk is not used as a store of value. This is not a matter of store of value, even if 100% of wealth is held in PMs, the economic collapse brings collapse of output. You seem to have absolutely no conception of what economic collapse looks like. 


An ounce of gold today buys 500 gallons of milk. Imagine after systemic economic collapse, you rock up in your horse and buggy to the local farmer. Do you think your 1oz coin will still buy you 500 gallons of milk in this new world? No, it will buy you a tiny tiny fraction of that.

TheSilverJournal's picture

Exactly, milk isn't money. Where do you think wealth is going to PILE into when fiat collapses?

But hey, I can't say I didn't try. I'll stack silver and gain a load of wealth. You stack commodities and break even.

TheSilverJournal's picture

Besides, look who has the moronic argument. If 100% of the wealth was stored in PMs, that would mean that nobody would put a value on anything else at all. In that case, 1/10 of an oz of silver could purchase you everything else in the world because nobody else would want anything except that last 1/10th of an oz of silver.


Dr Benway's picture

You really don't understand the difference between consumables and stores of wealth? LOL. Silver might become more attractive as a store of wealth, as compared to other stores of wealth, but if the amount of consumables crashes that still means less consumables for your wealth.


What do you think annual dairy production of the US would be after crippling economic collapse? Very much lower. But there will still be the same amount of silver. How the fuck do you think that means more milk for your silver?


Just answer me what you think annual food production would be before and after collapse, And what food priced in silver would be before and after collapse.

TheSilverJournal's picture

A fair guess may be food prices double and silver prices rise by 30. So food priced in silver will drop 15 times.

This is very conservative. More than likely food won't double and silver will rise by more than 30X.

Mr. LOL, the whole purpose of having money is to purchase goods, which I think you understand just fine. Money is only enjoyed when it is spent. A worldwide currency collapse doesn't mean that the world ends and goods stop being produced (although it may because massive war may accompany it as politicians scapegoat.) What currency collapse means is a restructuring of the economy as some goods gain value that were underinvested in and some goods lose value that were over invested in due to central bank's picking winners and losers. After currency collapse, though, it's no longer fiat that purchases those goods, it's, for the most part, gold and silver.

How the fuck do I think it means more milk for my silver? The value of all of the silver in the world is only $600B. Do you realize how many goods are in the world? A lot more than $600B. Pretty soon a good chunk of these goods will be able to be purchased with silver.

Herodotus's picture

What did a gallon of milk cost in Reichmarks in January 1914 and what did it cost in January 1923?  How many Reichmarks did it take to buy an ounce of gold in January 1914 and how many did it take in January 1923?  You don't have to speculate about the relationship between precious metals and commodities in times of collapse and inflation.  This has happened before.  So, the answer should be clear.  Just look it up!

TheSilverJournal's picture

This period will be much different than Weimar. Back then, the world was kind of run on PM's, whereas today, the world is run on a dollar based fiat monetary system. So today, the entire world is neglecting PM's.