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Goldman Cuts Q3 GDP Forecast To Stall Speed 1.9%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There was a time when Goldman, which recently went full retard with its bull thesis, seeing only upside in everything from stocks (and a once in a lifetime opportunity to sell bonds... just like in March, and then back in the summer of last year, and so on), to EURUSD, to housing, just like it did in December 2010, only to be humiliated a few short months later, had its Q3 GDP forecast at 2.3%. In fact the latest Q3 annualized forecast of 2.3% economic growth as recently as September 11. How much has changed in two short weeks. Apparently, out of leftfield, so many things have gotten worse that a whopping 0.4% or 20% of the growth in the quarter has bee eliminated in under three weeks. Just out from Goldman: "While nominal personal spending and core PCE prices rose in line with expectations in August, real spending gains were modest and income grew less than expected. We reduced our Q3 tracking estimate for real GDP growth from 2% to 1.9%." And that's why Jan Hatzius gets paid the big bucks. Only problem is now that Goldman has gotten the QEternity it lobbied for so long and hard, where will the upside growth come from?

 


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Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment kornholio
kornholio's picture

Bullish!!!!!!!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the upside for goldman may come if they SHORT THE PLANET.

 

Iran blocks the straights + China dumps US paper + ignored and faked data subverts QE = SP 600

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Neutron Ben.   Get a new plan.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

1.9% is dreamland.

Oh by the way anyone have predictions for the full year from last year?

Can't wait to see how far all of them are off much like last year.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

If they are going to make up numbers why not make it 19%. No one believes Goldman anyhow.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Not surprising given today's manufacturing report and yesterday's durable goods CRASH AND BURN!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/28/this-is-a-recovery-manufacturing-shrinks-to-lowest-level-since-oct-2009/

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Crash and burn.

Indeed.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment vinayjha
Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Oh. My. God.  There is unicorn blood everywhere!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Seriously - 1.9%? After the 2Q debacle of 1.25%?

No chance in hell it nears even that lowly figure.

Maybe .9%, but certainly not 1.9%.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Honestly, I think that GDP is going to pop now.  Just knowing what it really is and how it is calculated, it is going to pop globally.  It doesn't look like it now.  I remember saying stuff like this after QE1 and being ridiculed.  But you have to start buying.

The fact that Goldman is saying otherwise is proof enough.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

If you are suggesting that future GPD numbers will be manipulated (even more) I can go along with that - but actual real world improvement? I have to ask from where? From what?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

GDP at this point will be an expression of money printing.  It is basicly the sum of all transactions.  Higher prices mean higher GDP.  As far as real private sector economic improvement, I will not venture a guess there.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Japan has been printing almost non-stop for a decade - it's not doing much for them...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-27/japan-output-slides-more-tha...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

But their GDP is still holding in pretty good, even with them being a radioactive, post-tsunami wasteland about to go to war with China.

I am not confusing GDP with an economy.  Believe me.  I just know how it is calculated.  Global money printing is going to effect prices.  That is probably going to push up GDP.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Could be mate.  All the market has taught me in the past few years is I know nothin' about nothin' anymore.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Almost time for the market to do the daily post Europe closing pirouette.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Yup, djia is up to -77, after a -110 earlier this morning. Wait until the witching hour of 3 pm EST. I have no idea which way this is going to go.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing

Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a-blowing

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing

Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing

 

Willy Wonka

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

+ 100 to you Sir!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment franzpick
franzpick's picture

I still want to see the 5 year graph showing the various forecasts, then the reported numbers, and then the revisions - all 3 on one graph, to reveal to everyone the constant, knowing misrepresentation of future, current and past financial numbers.

Estimated:            +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Reported:             0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Revised:               -----------------------------------------------------

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

Fuck yeah!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Look, GS is fucking retarded. If the Q3 print is anywhere near .7 to the upside I'll throw a party. They're just going to keep revising to the downside as if their opinion matters. Jesus, the guy who runs the local seafood restaurant is more accurate in his prognostications than that bunch of QEi loving morons. Grrrr.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

IMPENDING SELL OFF ......

Longs please be careful.

Due to recent central bank intervention and short covering spikes, these daily charts are extremely overextended and significant correction expected very soon:

SPX, DOW, NASDAQ, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, COPPER, CRUDE, GOLD, SILVER. [USD strength will return]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

http://trader618.com

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

How about you quit spamming this in every thread.  I'm NOT clicking your link.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

It sucks when reality catches-up with the charade. 

Not stopping the propagandist from calling every negative piece of data "bullish". Go CNBS!

 

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Q4 2011: 4.1%; Q1 2012: 2.0%; Q2 2012: 1.25%

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the GS call for 1.9% is about 1.02% off.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

+1K to you, and I agree completely.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!