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Spanish Bank Capital Shortfall As "Good" As Expected: Live Press Conference Webcast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Spanish stress test results are out. Surprise - Oliver Wyman's audit finds that Spanish banks have an approximate EUR60bn shortfall - as expected - see below for pass/fails.

  • *SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL NEEDS       :SAN SM, BBVA SM
  • *SPAIN STRESS TESTS SHOW CAPITAL SHORTFALL OF EU59.3 BLN :SAN SM
  • *SPAIN BANKS HAVE EU53.7 B CAPITAL SHORTFALL AFTER TAX IMPACT
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN
  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Capital needs: Bankia: €24.7; Catalunya Caixa: 10.8; Novagalicia 7.2; Banco de Valencia: 3.5; Banco Popular 3.2; Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

Winners:

  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Losers, aka nationalized banks:

  • *NCG BANCO STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT EU7.18 BLN
  • *IBERCAJA, CAJA3, LIBERBANK STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU2.1 BLN
  • *BANCO DE VALENCIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU3.5 BLN    :SAN SM
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN

The discrete needs of the shortfall banks are as follows:

Bankia: 24.7;

Catalunya Caixa:10.8;

Novagalicia 7.2;

Banco de Valencia: 3.5;

Banco Popular 3.2;

Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

 

Based on these stunning assumptions!!!!

Bwuahahahah!!!!

  • IBEX: -0.4% next year? -5% worst case?
  • Home Prices: -2.8% next year? -4.5% worst case!!!!
  • Unemployment: 23.5% in 2013 - worst case 26.8%!!!!!
  • EURUSD: 1.33?

Finally, here is why all of the numbers above are absolutely meaningless. As a reminder in August, the ECB provided Spanish banks with €412 billion in funding. That is 7 times as much as the adverse case liquidity needs.

In other words, the total ECB funding and liquidity needs from the Stress Test is €472 billion. This is 50% of Spanish GDP.

Bottom line: the entire Spanish banking system is broke.

Live Press Conference (click image - in Spanish):

 

Wyman report which nobody will believe:

 

And numeric summary of goalseeked gibberish:

 

 

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Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:10 | 2839185 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I see Potter found the buy button on his keyboard.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | 2839196 CPL
CPL's picture

WIngardiem-euroiosa!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:16 | 2839220 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Someone should inform Potter that he accidently bought BYFC instead of RICK

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:20 | 2839244 Stackers
Stackers's picture

So "passed stress trest" means SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA are all going to be nationalized in 3-4 weeks ?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:36 | 2839286 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

I don't think I'm alone in saying that the Spiderman towel promotion just isn't cutting it. This is going to take something big, u know something faster than a speeding bullet, something more powerful than a locomotive. That's right,this is going to take a Superman Towel Promtion!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:59 | 2839337 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

In The EUROPEAN SPACE/TIME Continueum,

BAD Newz Is GOOD Newz...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:00 | 2839344 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who gives a phuck if they are? "Just another bank being taken out" right? I would think this site would be overjoyed at the prospect actually...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:04 | 2839354 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Every time I open this thread I land on your comment and laugh. Thanks so much, needed it today.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:12 | 2839378 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

all their ours moneys belong to you us. zzzzz 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:13 | 2839205 Mercury
Mercury's picture

...and plenty of Spaniards have found the 'withdraw' button on theirs.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839234 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

So what's the over/under on the half-life of this report?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:11 | 2839188 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Santander passed?  This is as bad as that touchdown call from that NFL ref from BAC!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:21 | 2839252 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

but they have plenty of good assets on their balance sheet.  spiderman towels have good resale value

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:41 | 2839308 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

So this was the "pre nov 7th" stress test, and then we see the "post nov 7th" shortly!!! Let's just say, they won't be the same!!!

It's pretty much common knowledge, after idiot Mitty went to Europe before the Olympics and made a giant ass of himself in from of the EU heads of state, that they are in the bag for Obama!!! Don't expect any trouble from them before 11/7!!!

But Israel is another matter, I think they are backed into a bad situation, and they see the next 30 days as the only window for attacking Iran!!! Of Obama re-elected they know it's over for them, so it's win win now!! If they attack and all hell breaks loose, and Obama loses because of it, it's a win! If they attack and Obama wins, we are already drawn into the fight, and obama will have to keep fighting or look weak!!
If they wait, and Romney wins, they attack, but the odds of that without an October surprise are low!! A serious catch 22!!!!

My bet is they attack!!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 16:56 | 2840066 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Since when does Obama have problem looking weak?  

His PR muppets will simply fill the idiot boxes and internet tubes with propaganda explaining to the sheeple, what they are supposed to think...

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:11 | 2839190 Conman
Conman's picture

2 words  describe the stock markets - full retard

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:16 | 2839223 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

eternatard market, Tom Lee's market

the anti-Faber, anti-Janjuah, anti-Kass, anti-Kostin, anti-Rosenberg market

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839238 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

you forgot anti-reality

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:11 | 2839191 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

stress....ha ha....tests....ha ha okay that time beer shot out of my nose

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:29 | 2839280 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Beer from 5 minutes ago or beer from last night?  There IS a difference.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:47 | 2839313 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

if you must ask....it was...well....a bit of both

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839195 Mercury
Mercury's picture

For his family's sake I hope that guy doesn't have 'Ministerio de Economía' on his licence plates.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839197 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's good, but do they have plenty of Spiderman towels? Maybe Ben should print some up.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:27 | 2839275 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

In Spain, Ben is known as Don QExote.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | 2839198 RSloane
RSloane's picture

See those people on that panel? Until they have to go dumpster-diving to feed their kids, nothing will change.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | 2839199 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Oops.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | 2839201 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GROUND CONTROL TO MAJOR EUR/USD

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:13 | 2839203 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I'm suprised to see them use the term "shortfall". Shouldn't that be "inverse capital?"

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:17 | 2839232 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"Short capital position".

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839235 Racer
Racer's picture

Just another term for one bank is morer busteder than the others

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:12 | 2839204 PUD
PUD's picture

The banks that passed have the best dumpsters to forage from..just sayin

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:13 | 2839207 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We have confirmed that we have no money, see we can tell the truth, now please pay us our bonuses.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:14 | 2839212 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Of course.  Gotta get those stock markets back up some how -lol

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:18 | 2839217 HD
HD's picture

Where's Maria to screech, "Off the lows"?

Watch them take this green. When nothing matters apparently nothing matters.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:15 | 2839219 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We should probably ask the bankers for guidance on how we fix this problem.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:16 | 2839222 Mongo
Mongo's picture

FUCK EUROPE

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:27 | 2839273 HD
HD's picture

 Not until it shaves its armpits. I have standards.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:53 | 2839505 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Why does everyone knock the Germans like this. remember Germany is not Brazil.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 19:20 | 2840424 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

True! Better beaches, better climate, better "scenery" . . . . .

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:16 | 2839225 Racer
Racer's picture

Ha ha ha ha

Haa ha ha ha

Oh please my sides are splitting

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:20 | 2839245 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

oh nooze,  the euro isn't as valuable as the dollar, so we need to pump another trillion el quicko.  racing to the bottom is fun, and profitable

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:21 | 2839248 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Wow - what a shock! Now back to the stress tests that matter - Apple maps. Apple goes down, we all go down.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:22 | 2839249 Artful Dodger
Artful Dodger's picture

More garbage excuses for the US market to rally when the economic indicators of the past two days should have S&P off 40 points for a start. Fuck does this get tiresome. Who is the marginal buyer with this economic picture and the US market at long-term highs? Unfathomable. Companies may be cash-rich, which ony reduces return on equity with stalling earnings, and thus reduces P/E, in a normal market.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:26 | 2839270 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

unless you use that extra cash to buy back shares to improve EPS of course

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:21 | 2839250 Bear
Bear's picture

The news is terrible, in Europe, in US growth and manufacturing, in politics, in life ... must be time for that Friday Rally

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:22 | 2839254 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Did the Algos write the Spainish press release?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 14:44 | 2839716 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Exactly the point, Daddy Bernanke or PPT program the algos to respond to the robot written press release. Every key word that pumps the S&P are maximized in the press release.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:24 | 2839261 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Spanish bank stress out. Question now is, what is the half life of a lie in terms of a market rally? Time to fade lies?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:25 | 2839266 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

I guess the ECB needs to inject $60 billion into the Spanish banks then (so the Spaniards can keep up the bank run.) Wait...if they inject the $60 bil, then the Spaniards will be reassured about the health of the banks and end their bank run.

/sarc

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:25 | 2839267 magpie
magpie's picture

60 billion new spanish bonds...60 billion tab for German taxpayers.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:26 | 2839271 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SPY 144 is the new "strange attractor"

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:28 | 2839277 pods
pods's picture

The good news is that the rate of withdrawal from these banks will test the validity of the stress tests.

And soon.

pods

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:28 | 2839279 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Stress test, yeah sure, once upon a time Dexia also had a stress test...

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:33 | 2839287 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Dexia, fk yeah!

Spiderman towels, fk yeah!

Santander, fk yeah!

Mallorca, fk yeah!

Real Madrid, fk yeah!

Rajoy, fk yeah!

Ronaldo, uhhhhhh (heated argument) uhhhhh, ok, fk yeah

Bailout, fk yeah!

Austerity, fk yeah!

Lagarde's goonsquad, fk yeah!

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:40 | 2839305 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

60 billion won't be enough. Look at Greece for future reference. The shit is going to hit the fan in Italy in 2013.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:33 | 2839434 littleguy
littleguy's picture

and France....

 

 75% tax rate?? What are they smoking?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:48 | 2839314 PUD
PUD's picture

IBEX down 5% worst case next year? The fucker fell 4% on thursday! bhwaaaaaa

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:50 | 2839322 dariomilano
dariomilano's picture

these are criminals making assumptions

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:51 | 2839323 falak pema
falak pema's picture

60 billion is one week's cash of the Oligarchs stashed in Cayman land.

Estimated cash in Corporates is 6T. 50% held outside fiscal control. 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2839418 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

A multinational raid of the Cayman Island banking houses has been completed.  The naval, marine, air and land forces searched every inch of every bank and found nothing of value.  "It was all paper" said General Distraction.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 12:55 | 2839335 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It is $76.3 billion in dollar terms (59.3 in euros).

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:10 | 2839371 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Either way it doesn't matter. They are broke and no one is lending a dead bead anymore cash.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:03 | 2839352 devo
devo's picture

The pain in Spain falls mainly on the plain (peeps).

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:11 | 2839376 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture
EU's Juncker says comforted by the fact that Spanish banks' capital shortfall is less than EUR 60bln

EU's Juncker says when it becomes serious, you have to lie

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:17 | 2839390 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

+1! You are the man of the hour!

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:20 | 2839394 youngman
youngman's picture

Now who in the hell is going to give them 60 billion.......just sayin..

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:22 | 2839396 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Spanish stress test lie half life rally lasted about an hour. Next up: Moody's phony one notch credit downgrade. Time to fade lies? 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:24 | 2839403 Blankfiend
Blankfiend's picture

"The information contained in this report has been produced in accordance withcriteria, working methods, assumptions and processes that have been formulated,specified and required by the Banco de España and/or the Committees. Oliver Wyman expressly disclaims any responsibility for these criteria, working methods,assumptions and processes."

That  means that dynamic provisioning has been incorporated into these tests, as that is the BE's approved  method of accounting.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:25 | 2839408 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

If I understism this correctism,  the only people in Espana with money are the citizens that took it out of the caja and put it in their cama?

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2839426 semperfi
semperfi's picture

I CALL BULLSHIT !!  TRIPLE IT.

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 13:32 | 2839429 littleguy
littleguy's picture

Fundamentals ... hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I like Don QEXote the best... that's hilarious.

 

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 14:22 | 2839610 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

Who is the next Johann Jakob Fugger?

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 17:51 | 2840218 Possible Impact
Possible Impact's picture

SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL NEEDS

 

SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL, NEEDS!
Sat, 09/29/2012 - 11:08 | 2841496 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

...and just a day after the Pinocchios' Live Press Conference:

Demo in Madrid at 6PM: the people are demanding Government resigns

In Lisbon has already started, you can follow it here:

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!