Spanish Bank Capital Shortfall As "Good" As Expected: Live Press Conference Webcast

Tyler Durden's picture

Spanish stress test results are out. Surprise - Oliver Wyman's audit finds that Spanish banks have an approximate EUR60bn shortfall - as expected - see below for pass/fails.

  • *SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL NEEDS       :SAN SM, BBVA SM
  • *SPAIN STRESS TESTS SHOW CAPITAL SHORTFALL OF EU59.3 BLN :SAN SM
  • *SPAIN BANKS HAVE EU53.7 B CAPITAL SHORTFALL AFTER TAX IMPACT
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN
  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Capital needs: Bankia: €24.7; Catalunya Caixa: 10.8; Novagalicia 7.2; Banco de Valencia: 3.5; Banco Popular 3.2; Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

Winners:

  • *SANTANDER, BBVA, CAIXABANK, KUTXA PASS STRESS TEST      :SAN SM
  • *SABADELL, BANKINTER, UNICAJA PASS STRESS TEST  :SAN SM, BBVA SM

Losers, aka nationalized banks:

  • *NCG BANCO STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT EU7.18 BLN
  • *IBERCAJA, CAJA3, LIBERBANK STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU2.1 BLN
  • *BANCO DE VALENCIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL IS EU3.5 BLN    :SAN SM
  • *BANKIA STRESS TEST SHORTFALL AFTER TAX EFFECT IS EU24.74 BLN

The discrete needs of the shortfall banks are as follows:

Bankia: 24.7;

Catalunya Caixa:10.8;

Novagalicia 7.2;

Banco de Valencia: 3.5;

Banco Popular 3.2;

Banco Mare Nostrum: 2.2

 

Based on these stunning assumptions!!!!

Bwuahahahah!!!!

  • IBEX: -0.4% next year? -5% worst case?
  • Home Prices: -2.8% next year? -4.5% worst case!!!!
  • Unemployment: 23.5% in 2013 - worst case 26.8%!!!!!
  • EURUSD: 1.33?

Finally, here is why all of the numbers above are absolutely meaningless. As a reminder in August, the ECB provided Spanish banks with €412 billion in funding. That is 7 times as much as the adverse case liquidity needs.

In other words, the total ECB funding and liquidity needs from the Stress Test is €472 billion. This is 50% of Spanish GDP.

Bottom line: the entire Spanish banking system is broke.

Live Press Conference (click image - in Spanish):

 

Wyman report which nobody will believe:

 

And numeric summary of goalseeked gibberish:

 

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magpie's picture

60 billion new spanish bonds...60 billion tab for German taxpayers.

slaughterer's picture

SPY 144 is the new "strange attractor"

pods's picture

The good news is that the rate of withdrawal from these banks will test the validity of the stress tests.

And soon.

pods

ThirdWorldDude's picture

Stress test, yeah sure, once upon a time Dexia also had a stress test...

slaughterer's picture

Dexia, fk yeah!

Spiderman towels, fk yeah!

Santander, fk yeah!

Mallorca, fk yeah!

Real Madrid, fk yeah!

Rajoy, fk yeah!

Ronaldo, uhhhhhh (heated argument) uhhhhh, ok, fk yeah

Bailout, fk yeah!

Austerity, fk yeah!

Lagarde's goonsquad, fk yeah!

 

Yen Cross's picture

60 billion won't be enough. Look at Greece for future reference. The shit is going to hit the fan in Italy in 2013.

littleguy's picture

and France....

 

 75% tax rate?? What are they smoking?

PUD's picture

IBEX down 5% worst case next year? The fucker fell 4% on thursday! bhwaaaaaa

dariomilano's picture

these are criminals making assumptions

falak pema's picture

60 billion is one week's cash of the Oligarchs stashed in Cayman land.

Estimated cash in Corporates is 6T. 50% held outside fiscal control. 

Piranhanoia's picture

A multinational raid of the Cayman Island banking houses has been completed.  The naval, marine, air and land forces searched every inch of every bank and found nothing of value.  "It was all paper" said General Distraction.

Temporalist's picture

It is $76.3 billion in dollar terms (59.3 in euros).

surf0766's picture

Either way it doesn't matter. They are broke and no one is lending a dead bead anymore cash.

devo's picture

The pain in Spain falls mainly on the plain (peeps).

No Euros please we're British's picture
EU's Juncker says comforted by the fact that Spanish banks' capital shortfall is less than EUR 60bln

EU's Juncker says when it becomes serious, you have to lie

youngman's picture

Now who in the hell is going to give them 60 billion.......just sayin..

russwinter's picture

Spanish stress test lie half life rally lasted about an hour. Next up: Moody's phony one notch credit downgrade. Time to fade lies? 

Blankfiend's picture

"The information contained in this report has been produced in accordance withcriteria, working methods, assumptions and processes that have been formulated,specified and required by the Banco de España and/or the Committees. Oliver Wyman expressly disclaims any responsibility for these criteria, working methods,assumptions and processes."

That  means that dynamic provisioning has been incorporated into these tests, as that is the BE's approved  method of accounting.

Piranhanoia's picture

If I understism this correctism,  the only people in Espana with money are the citizens that took it out of the caja and put it in their cama?

 

semperfi's picture

I CALL BULLSHIT !!  TRIPLE IT.

littleguy's picture

Fundamentals ... hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I like Don QEXote the best... that's hilarious.

 

Zwelgje's picture

Who is the next Johann Jakob Fugger?

Possible Impact's picture

SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL NEEDS

 

SPAIN SAYS 7 BANKS HAVE NO CAPITAL, NEEDS!
Negro Primero's picture

...and just a day after the Pinocchios' Live Press Conference:

Demo in Madrid at 6PM: the people are demanding Government resigns

In Lisbon has already started, you can follow it here: