Guest Post: Iran’s Imminent Nuclear Weapon

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Iran’s Imminent Nuclear Weapon

Here’s some context behind the claims that Iran will imminently possess a nuclear weapon.

It started a long time ago (but not, unfortunately, in a galaxy far, far away):

1984: Soon after West German engineers visit the unfinished Bushehr nuclear reactor, Jane’s Defence Weekly quotes West German intelligence sources saying that Iran’s production of a bomb “is entering its final stages.”US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.

Seven years away? And did they have a bomb in 1991?

1992: Israeli parliamentarian Binyamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon – and that the threat had to be “uprooted by an international front headed by the US.”

 

1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres tells French TV that Iran was set to have nuclear warheads by 1999. “Iran is the greatest threat and greatest problem in the Middle East,” Peres warned, “because it seeks the nuclear option while holding a highly dangerous stance of extreme religious militancy.”

 

1992: Joseph Alpher, a former official of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, says “Iran has to be identified as Enemy No. 1.” Iran’s nascent nuclear program, he told The New York Times, “really gives Israel the jitters.”

So was there a bomb by the late 1990s?

1995: The New York Times conveys the fears of senior US and Israeli officials that “Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought” – about five years away – and that Iran’s nuclear bomb is “at the top of the list” of dangers in the coming decade. The report speaks of an “acceleration of the Iranian nuclear program,” claims that Iran “began an intensive campaign to develop and acquire nuclear weapons” in 1987, and says Iran was “believed” to have recruited scientists from the former Soviet Union and Pakistan to advise them.

 

1997: The Christian Science Monitor reports that US pressure on Iran’s nuclear suppliers had “forced Iran to adjust its suspected timetable for a bomb. Experts now say Iran is unlikely to acquire nuclear weapons for eight or 10 years.

So now we’re looking at a nuclear-armed Iran by 2007. Scary stuff, right?

2007: President Bush warns that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to “World War III.” Vice President Dick Cheney had previously warned of “serious consequences” if Iran did not give up its nuclear program.

 

2007: A month later, an unclassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran is released, which controversially judges with “high confidence” that Iran had given up its nuclear weapons effort in fall 2003.

 

June 2008: Then-US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton predicts that Israel will attack Iran before January 2009, taking advantage of a window before the next US president came to office.

 

May 2009: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee reports states: “There is no sign that Iran’s leaders have ordered up a bomb.”

And Iran still doesn’t have a bomb today — all of those reports, all of that scaremongering and warmongering was wrong. Both the CIA and Mossad agree that there is no specific evidence that Iran is working on nuclear weapons today. And many experts believe that even if Iran were working on a bomb it could take up to ten to fifteen years.

Yet, it seems that nothing except a war will satisfy Binyamin Netanyahu, who felt the same way about Iraq:

There is no question whatsoever that Saddam is working towards nuclear weapons.

And how did that work out? A hugely expensive war and occupation, American imperial overstretch, thousands of dead soldiers, hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis and no weapons of mass destruction. We should judge people on their predictive record.

On one level, I understand Netanyahu’s paranoia especially in the context of the 20th Century and the holocaust. Iranian Generals have talked about annihilating Israel.

In August 2012, Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, who heads Iran’s Passive Defence Organisation, said “No other way exists apart from resolve and strength to completely eliminate the aggressive nature and to destroy Israel.”  And just six days ago in September 2012 Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh threatened to attack Israel and trigger World War III, saying that “it is possible that we will make a pre-emptive attack” which would “turn into World War III.” In the same statement, Hajizadeh threatened to attack American bases in the Middle East as well. Hajizadeh said that as a result of this attack, Israel would “sustain heavy damage and that will be a prelude to its obliteration.”

All disturbing rhetoric, yet almost certainly baseless threats given the context of Iran’s technological and military disadvantage. Iranian missiles fired at Israel would likely be shot down long before they reached Israeli airspace by Israel’s advanced missile defence systems that can intercept even short-range fire from Gaza and Lebanon. And Israel’s nuclear submarines in the Persian Gulf would almost certainly retaliate in kind. As Shimon Peres noted in 2006: “The President of Iran should remember that Iran can also be wiped off the map.” Most importantly, if Iran attacked Israel, it seems far less likely that other powers would come to Iran’s aid.

Yet an attack on Iran by Israel could well trigger a larger conflict, sucking in Iran’s trade partners who do not want to see the flow of oil and resources out of Iran disrupted. Just this week China announced new contracts to provide super-tankers to deliver oil from Iran to China. Would Russia and China sit idly by and see their Iranian investments liquidated while America and Israel invade Iran and destroy its infrastructure? Would they sit idly by and see their ally deposed? China and Pakistan have both hinted that they could defend Iran if Iran were attacked. An attack on or invasion of Iran is an incredibly risky adventure — and in my view the real danger to Israel. And for what? To discover that like Saddam Hussein, Ahmadinejad is not working on a nuclear weapon, and all the hot air about weapons of mass destruction is once again just bullshit?

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Winston Churchill's picture

Better keep a close eye on those Nigerians as well.

I mean they've got oil haven't they, just goes to reason.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

Hugo Chavez also.............election coming up

Ahmeexnal's picture

Time to dial up onto WOPR's backdoor and "play a game".

Oh regional Indian's picture

Send a prayer to the poor and recently "Liberated by seperation" Sudanese. The Southerners do have oil too.

The Nuclear Bogeyman lingers on...

ori

Gully Foyle's picture

Oh regional Indian

Aren't the Sudanese major slave traders?

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2011/October/Lost-Boy-Begs-US-to-Help-E...

It's hard to imagine, but more slaves exist today than at any other point in history.  As one North African teen knows all too well, one of the worst offenders is the nation of Sudan.
    
Sitting behind a microphone on Capitol Hill, 18-year-old Ker Aleu Deng was all smiles. But it wasn't long ago when he had little, if anything, to smile about.      
    
He was a young boy when Arab raiders ransacked his village, killed the men, and bound Dang and his mother to a camel.
    
They were then dragged away from their home in southern Sudan to a life of slave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Sudan

 

Seer's picture

"It's hard to imagine, but more slaves exist today than at any other point in history. "

No, not really... lots of demand from the Western world on resources means more exploitation of human labor by those who don't have huge machines in place.

Also keep in mind that there's a LOT more people on the planet than in the past.  A better measure (though even a single "slave" is too many) is PERCENTAGE based on total population sizes.

markmotive's picture

"Try and imagine it if you can: barrage after barrage of Exocet-class missiles, which the Iranians are known to possess in the hundreds, as well as the unstoppable Sunburn and Yakhonts missiles. The questions that our purblind government leaders should be asking themselves, today, if they value what historians will one day write about them, are two: how many of the Russian anti-ship missiles has Putin already supplied to Iran? And: How many more are currently in the pipeline?"

We must stop the war in the middle east before it starts.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/07/01/we-must-stop-the-next-middle-ea...

mjcOH1's picture

""Try and imagine it if you can: barrage after barrage of Exocet-class missiles, which the Iranians are known to possess in the hundreds, as well as the unstoppable Sunburn and Yakhonts missiles."

We'd better hurry up and build more aircraft carriers to absorb all those missiles.   That or battleships.

Anything but destroy the launchers from 1000 miles out with carrier based aircraft, cruise missiles, or drones.   Because that would be silly.

Winston Churchill's picture

That would be nice excepting I'm sure our missles will work just like that drone.

You remember,the one the Iranians took over and landed , and have now copied.

Shit,they will use those copies to spot for the latest anti ship missile , thats much

better/worse than the Sunburn or Yakhonts.

Finding  static missile sites is very difficult,mobile ones,you may get 30% if you're very lucky.

Feeeling lucky.That only leaves several thousand.

It would be a turkey shoot.US navy is  the turkey.

mjcOH1's picture

"That would be nice excepting I'm sure our missles will work just like that drone.  You remember,the one the Iranians took over and landed , and have now copied."  Shit,they will use those copies to spot for the latest anti ship missile , thats much better/worse than the Sunburn or Yakhonts.  Finding  static missile sites is very difficult,mobile ones,you may get 30% if you're very lucky."

Some drones will crash.   So will some missiles.  
Having either crash over Iran neither means they 'took it over' nor that they're capable of copying it .... although they may find a buyer who ultimately can.

When drones are crashing there, that should be a cue to make the sale quickly.   When missiles start crashing there, they'll be busy enough with the 99% landing live where that won't be a priority.

Can't imagine what those drones have been plotting though.   Definitely not missile sites.   Probably street mapping for google.

jeff montanye's picture

let me put it to the warriors as simply as possible:  it's not about who wins some "war".  the u.s. has still got a monster self contradiction in its foreign/military policy, a little bit like the old "beatings will continue until morale improves".  the u.s. intends to knock out governments and then have elections or at least have elections until the u.s. troops are withdrawn and something else happens.  

i don't think this comes as a surprise but for many very good reasons and some not so good ones, the islamic people of the world hate the guts of israel and, by extension, the u.s.  so taking out one government (taliban, saddam, gaddafi, mubarak, assad, khamenei, ....) and letting events take their course through freeish elections or power struggles makes it less likely rather than more likely that the resulting governments will be allies of israel or the u.s.  and, of course, where they are the results of elections, like hamas in palestine or talabani in iraq, it becomes harder to make a case against their being something less than an expression of their people.   

AldousHuxley's picture

Nuke is a threat whoever wants to invade Iran for oil.

 

Iran will get nukes because Russia and China wants her to.

 

I guess American leaders have to shut the fuck up and actually start exporting.

fourchan's picture

"stealing the fire" excellent documentary

Winston Churchill's picture

You obviuosly no nothing about Iran.

They have good scientists,techs and facilities.

I talk from personal experience,and that was forty years ago.

Afghanistan is a medaevil country in comparison and we are not doing so

well there either ,despite our overwhelming advantages.

Trying to keep oil flowing thru' the Strait , in what is an Iranian lake,is

just about as impossible task as can be imagined.Its a killing field.

There will be casualties of an order not seen since Vietnam in any conflict.

Our leaders are no doubt graduates of our publics schools if they even

attempt an attack.Dumb,and dumberer.

mjcOH1's picture

"You obviuosly no nothing about Iran.  They have good scientists,techs and facilities.I talk from personal experience,and that was forty years ago. ...Trying to keep oil flowing thru' the Strait , in what is an Iranian lake,is just about as impossible task as can be imagined.Its a killing field. There will be casualties of an order not seen since Vietnam in any conflict. Our leaders are no doubt graduates of our publics schools if they even attempt an attack.Dumb,and dumberer."

 

You might want to review your history, then.   Since we have been through this with Iran before during the Tanker War.    It went something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gob3lMwkjnw

 

The same disinformation was put out then ..... Straits can't be kept open, it's an Iranian lake, etc.

In each case, although Iran borders the Persian Gulf the US can (and at this point - has) moved in the required equipment to have naval and aerial supremacy.    That will be sufficient to take apart the Iranian navy and air force when the time comes ..... same as was done during the 80s tanker war.

Given sufficient time (say .... a year) the US could also move in the ground forces to mount a successful land invasion of Iran (as was done in twice in Iraq and once in Afghanistan) that would end with disproportionate losses on the Iranian side and the US army rolling into Tehran.  Not that there's a lot of interest on the part of either Iran or the United States in going down that road, although for different reasons

Auroch's picture

Fighting the last war ? maybe review hezbullah V. IDF too while you're at it ;)

Will To Live's picture

We are all Slaves...To the Taxman.

A Nanny Moose's picture

The only winning move, is not to play.

Gully Foyle's picture

I just saw an artcile at WRH, I think, about Chavez opposition falling apart.

Must have busted more CIA/NGO money funnelers.

max2205's picture

Let's get real, Iran could buy a bomb, drive it to pastrami land and detonate it 10 years ago if they really wanted to. This is all BS

zerozulu's picture

Circumstantial evidence shows that Iran has N-thing. and clear evidence that countries don't have N-thing are, (Drum roll please), Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan.

geno-econ's picture

Get Judith Mller of NYT on this story, and Colin Powell with that vial on TV 

knukles's picture

And Hugo's GOLD is in Caracas...

Gully Foyle's picture

I'm tired of this war cocktease. Stop the fucking dry humping and start dropping some bombs.

 

Abitdodgie's picture

Nigeria has a Rothschild central bank , Iran does not , the oil is just a bonus.

Randall Cabot's picture

Oil and jew supremacist bankers are part of it but according to Paul Craig Roberts formerly of the Reagan economic team:

"What is the real agenda?

The real agenda hiding behind the hysterical concern about an Iranian nuke, is the rightwing Israeli government’s design on the water resources of southern Lebanon.

Twice the Israeli government sent the Israeli army into southern Lebanon to occupy and eventually annex the territory. And twice Hizbollah defeated and drove out the vaunted Israeli army."

 

 

 

 

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/   

Winston Churchill's picture

I'd believe that.Remember a lecturer I heard in college forecast that water,not

oil, was going to be the next resource to cause wars.

That was back in the early seventies,so  he may have been a little premature.

He actually was using Israel as one pf  the examples then.

Wonder what happened to him,can't even remember his name now,

do remember the lecture though.

ozziindaus's picture

....well there are a lot of Jews in Michigan

Muessin's picture

"Better keep a close eye on those Nigerians as well.

I mean they've got oil haven't they"

But it's in the southern part of the country, which is predominantly Christian - not enough cultural difference to justify war efforts at the home front - no muslim collateral damage…

Most importantly, however, unlike Iran, they are still trading in petro-Dollars.

hookah's picture

Its not so hard to make an A-bomb just google: " how to make an h-bomb "

bank guy in Brussels's picture

Even Israelis laugh at how former furniture salesman BibiNetanyahu looks like an idiot with his cartoon bomb

One of the funniest re-do photos of Bibi on the UN podium, from an Israeli news site ... hilarious as if from WB7:

http://www.ynet.co.il/PicServer3/2012/09/27/4185015/41850030100098408316...

john39's picture

the true clowns are revealed when they on air and gush over what a great speech it was... with a straight face...   like john bolton.     the onion could not have done a better job at comedy then netanyahu did with that speech.

A Nanny Moose's picture

LOL@ Bibi...as in Veni Vidi Bibi...hic!

PiratePawpaw's picture

Ive been spinning Uranium in my dryer for months and I dont think its working.......I'll just stick with F-bombs.

BurningFuld's picture

Dude, use the 220 volt connection.

francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe some SNUGGLE fabric softener strips would help...

Harbanger's picture

Except maybe the Whitehouse message machine, nothing spins faster than the debt clock.

Gully Foyle's picture

hookah

Wasn't there a high school kid who made one in his garage from Plutonium in smoke detectors?

http://whatsnext.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/05/the-18-year-old-who-built-a-nu...

At 18, Taylor Wilson has probably accomplished more than most people will in a lifetime.

He is the youngest person in the world to build a nuclear fusion reactor. And he won national acclaim for a counter terror device that sniffs out nuclear material in cargo containers. If that’s not enough, he built a prototype for a device that generates medical isotopes - a feat that could make diagnosing and treating cancer cheaper and more widely accessible to patients.

...

Wilson started building the nuclear fusion reactor in his garage but finished it at the University of Nevada, Reno. He did it initially because he was amazed by the power contained within the atom and obsessed with making things radioactive.

http://www.dangerouslaboratories.org/radscout.html

Huddled with a group of neighbors, Pease was nervous. "I was pretty disturbed," she recalls. Publicly, the employees of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that day said there was nothing to fear. The truth is far more bizarre: the shed was dangerously irradiated and, according to the EPA, up to 40,000 residents of the area could be at risk.

The cleanup was provoked by the boy next door, David Hahn. He had attempted to build a nuclear reactor in his mother's shed following a Boy Scout merit-badge project.

Inthemix96's picture

Iran developing nukes?  Perhaps.

Isreali war dog (who likes American kids to die for his cause), nutyahoo proclaimeing all sorts of bullshit and inuendo?  Without a fucking doubt.

Go on bibi, do it.  But leave the American pitbull alone, do it yourself you cowardly fucking dog.  And leave American kids out of it you yellow cunt, sacrifice some of your own chosen.

macholatte's picture

 

 

All disturbing rhetoric, yet almost certainly baseless threats......

Until it's not.

 

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
George Orwell

Lore's picture

Beware sleight of hand and persistence of motion. Never look in the direction THEY are pointing.

AllWorkedUp's picture

Perfect. Fuck Israel, fuck Netannutball. Clear these shitbirds out before the "Chosen Ones" destroy this world. Disgusting Satanic bastards.

Martin Silenus's picture

*cough* central banking *cough*

CH1's picture

Yup, they need someone to pin the pain on. And if the Jews can be setup to take the blame, so much the better: Hating them is a long and glorious tradition!

giovanni_f's picture

hello aipac avatar, I just -1ed you. Have a nice day.

CH1's picture

LOL... you think I'm AIPAC?

Have a nice day. (I didn't ding you.)

giovanni_f's picture

you write like you're AIPAC, you look like you're AIPAC. Be happy