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Euro-Zone 'Misery' Has Never Been Higher

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the 'Misery' Index in Iran reaches exceptional levels, and the US aggregate of inflation and unemployment peaked last October, Europe's misery has continued to rise in the face of an ever-easing ECB and political jawboning. As SocGen notes today, the UK's misery has turned back higher and the Euro-zone's Misery Index has never been higher. These misery indices clearly reflect deteriorating economic performances in the main G10 countries, with some unsurprisingly weaker performances in Spain and Greece, leading the eurozone index higher. Given recessionary situations expected in some eurozone countries next year, the misery index is unfortunately quite unlikely to edge south significantly.

 

 

Via SocGen:

Eurozone: a record misery index. The situation in the eurozone deteriorated further during the summer: the unemployment rate hit a record 11.4% in August, while inflation increased from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy, pushing the eurozone misery index to a record high (14%). With an unfortunately dark employment outlook, the index is unlikely to reverse course sharply anytime soon. This will force the ECB to keep an ultra-accommodative stance for some time to come.

US misery index: keep a close eye. The decrease (from 8.3% to 8.1%) in the unemployment rate in August was not enough to offset the increase (from 1.4% yoy to 1.7% yoy) in the inflation rate. As a result, the US misery index has increased slightly. Is it merely a passing cloud or the first sign of a more worrying storm? The September NFP report, to be released on Friday, will give us more of a clue. Although the US job situation is clearly less worrying than the eurozone’s, it remains a risk factor for the outlook for the US misery index, and could force the Fed to embark on QE 3.5 with Treasury purchases early next year.

UK misery index edging north. Although we only know the July results for now, we also note the first signs of a deterioration in the UK misery index; based on both employment and inflation. This provides a quandary for the BoE; our economists expect it to increase its QE programme in November.

 

 

Spain and Greece: converging misery indices. Spain’s misery index overtook even Greece’s in Q2, and is now about twice the eurozone’s (25.93 versus 13.7). With 24% unemployment rates in both countries, it is clear where the underperformance by both Spain and Greece comes from. Inflation is much more satisfactory, with 1.3% yoy in June in Spain and Greece versus 2.4% yoy in the eurozone. Unfortunately, looming austerity budgets in both countries next year will weigh on domestic demand and thus unemployment rates, leading to still elevated misery indices.

 

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Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:05 | 2845313 vinayjha
Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2845325 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

People need to realize the governments will not be made to benefit them and they need to take them over and shut them down.

This needs to be done physically.

And promptly.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:15 | 2845339 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Europeans have recent history of doing just that.

Long guillotines, and pianno wire.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:20 | 2845365 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Recent?  Using your time frame Americans do too.  But in today's world when you have a complaint you tweet it.

Long complacency.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:29 | 2845403 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

1960(France) is a little more recent.

Poland (90) etc etc.

Not anywhere near as docile as the American sheeples.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:07 | 2845317 PUD
PUD's picture

Banco Santander dumpsters are first rate.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2845321 BigDeuceLittleToilet
BigDeuceLittleToilet's picture

Definitely Bullish. Welcome to the Wall of Worry...easy to climb.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2845322 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Those in misery obviously need to go to the "Charlie Evans Center for Shoving Fiat Up Your Ass" to realize the banks are doing great and there's no reason to be sad.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:08 | 2845323 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just wait.  Entropy is a bitch, if you think the world is a mess now, just wait.  humans proving that they are not smarter than yeast, again.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:14 | 2845329 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Clearly these people don't comprehend how hard Ben and Draghi are trying to help them out. They are doing everything in their power to try and improve their life style. The damn proples are always so ungrateful.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:14 | 2845338 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

The misery index in the UK must be the lowest in the world. We enjoy an equitable tax regime, ultra low inflation, almost full employment and the best free healthcare system in the world.

 

yeah, it's sarcasm.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:22 | 2845377 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Be careful what you wish for.

I can assure you it could be far worse than you could imagine.

You could have banrupting lousy medical care to add to the other woes,

Look at the real US  UE and inflation figures @shadowstats .I think maybe your having

it better in the UK than you think.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 13:16 | 2845617 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Well Winston, we do have almost bankrupt medical care. The government has been very careful to ensure this so it can sell all the hospitals to private contractors.

But at least we get free SARS with every op'. I remember Russia being vilified for this back in not too distant past by the UK media. Now no one mentions it.

You might think it's better, but it's all smoke and mirrors m8.

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 13:41 | 2845726 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm meant bankruptcy for you as the patient,

The very rich healthcare services in the US are abysmal.Doesnt't matter how much money you

have either.EG Two of my clients,both billionaire and generous donors to their local hospoitals;

a)Misdiagnosed,Postrate removed when the problem was a tumor on bladder.

2)recurrence of cancer,missed for 18 months,now termial stage 4.

 

40% chance of contracting MRS for any in patient in the USA.

The NHS maybe incompetente,but its not ridiculously expensive AND incompetent. .

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:18 | 2845351 Jason T
Jason T's picture

US and UK get to run twin deficits of over 10% of GDP for 5 years straight and still get to borrow money for 10 years less than 2% a year.

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:22 | 2845373 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

As long as the Muppets get to buy new cars with their retirement funds they don't care.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:25 | 2845384 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

If only you were using the real inflation and real unemployment numbers for the US....

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:28 | 2845397 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

"Euro-Zone Misery has never been higher" Yeah baby, bring on the pain!!!

As can been seen from the quotes below we Europeans love a bit of Pain.

“To see others suffer does one good, to make others suffer even more: this is a hard saying but an ancient, mighty, human, all-too-human principle [....] Without cruelty there is no festival.”
  - Nietzsche

 

“Fuck! Is one expected to be a gentleman when one is stiff?”
- De Sade

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:32 | 2845408 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids! Iran is NOT in misery, they're in stitches! Having a good laugh at Nuttyahoo along with most of the rest of the civilized world. Iran is playing their hand like champs, letting "Israel" commit credibility suicide all by their lonesome:

Iran: Israel is world’s laughing stock

A senior Iranian official derided Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s UN General Assembly speech, and asserted that the Islamic Republic’s “growing power and influence” have angered Jerusalem, the Iranian FARS news agency reported Sunday.

“The fake regime of Israel is mocked by everyone in the world today, although such cheap actions of the leaders of the occupying Zionist regime are nothing new,” top foreign ministry official Hassan Qashqavi said, referring to the cartoon-like bomb illustration that the prime minister presented at the UN General Assembly meeting on Thursday.

Netanyahu used the diagram and a red marker to demonstrate the Iran’s nuclear progress and press the international community to set a “red line” that would stop the atom program in its tracks.

Qashqavi, who was speaking at a ceremony in Iran’s southern city of Kangan, further claimed that Tehran’s might had angered Israeli officials so much that they were driven to using “silly” props.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:36 | 2845420 Fort
Fort's picture

Imagine where misery existing now in this new utopian part of the world is, where everything is fully under control and managed well by CB and Brussels and everybody still receives their entitlements just as was once promised to them, and where it will be 5 years from now when real austerity is starting to bite or dust starts to settle.

-Greece (Government) has it actually reduced spending? I know GDP keeps falling, I know they keep missing targets, but has their bloody government actually shrunk? No, I did not think so.

 That will not happen until this index has to be portrait on a log scale to show its exponential climb to the top. It follows the money print index all the way to the stars and then once it has exceeded the laws of gravity it can float anywhere in vacuum.

The growth of dead per thousand inhabitants at that point might still be charted as the misery index above. That two might one day have to be charted on log scale. That one however can never reach the stars for it is bound by physical limitations.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:38 | 2845432 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Although I've never purchased anything at Wallmart it is safe to go there now that EBT has passed.

I think that relates to misery. Not sure.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:54 | 2845512 Joe A
Joe A's picture

EU misery index would be better if the rotten apples were kicked out. But no, we must all go down together.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:55 | 2845515 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Europe's misery Index is on par with the U.S. Ryder Cup team's singles match performances, yesterday.

...utter failure

 

On a side note, anyone notice that the EURO Ryder Cup team, in victory celebration, was pouring Brut Imperial (Moet & Chandon's cheapest product) out of their champagne bottles yesterday.

THAT is the clearest sign of how bad economics are in Europe, right now !

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:59 | 2845537 NorthenSoul
NorthenSoul's picture

Alrighty!

Time to win the popularity contest on ZeroHedge.

Paul Krugman (Excuse me: PROFESSOR Paul Krugman) predicted  this: Austerity is totaly and utter bullshit IN TIME OF DEBT-INDUCED RECESSION.

You can't pay back debt when the economy doesn't work, and the economy doesn't workif private and public sector delevereage at the same time.

Why the fuck is this so difficult to understand?

C'wan now mofos: Flame me plenty!! MUHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 13:24 | 2845654 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Guess Krugman didn't want to mention the war.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:12 | 2846328 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, now about the amount of energy required to simply maintain the current status quo, nevermind grow.  Yes Krugman also believe many things, such as infinite growth in a finite world, good luck with that.

 

Didn't junk you, just pointing out that eCONomics is not a science but rather a game of perception, a great CON if you will.  The contradictions of the likes of Krugman just demonstrates the arrogance of the liars and the level of insanity they have taken everyone to. 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:05 | 2846520 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

Idiot

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 13:24 | 2845649 Madcow
Madcow's picture

the passage of time makes things worse not better. 

all the ECB can do now is to try to stretch the implosion out over 30 years - and do whatever they can to keep the riots to a steady, controllable leve.  over time, the military will lean to be more effective - and will bring in better technology to at least keep the riots restricted to certain areas.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:40 | 2846035 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

the misery of hearing about euro-zone misery has never been higher

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