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Goldman Lowers Q3 GDP Forecast Again, From 1.9% To 1.8%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It seems like it was only Friday that Goldman's daily GDP forecast adjustment team revised its GDP lower. Oh wait, it was. Since it is another day ending in -y, here comes Hatzius' crack commando team with yet another downward revision.

Construction spending -0.6% (mom) for August vs GS +1.0%, median forecast +0.5%.

 

MAIN POINTS:

 

1. The ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 51.5 from 49.6 (vs. consensus of 49.7). The underlying composition was also friendly, with increases in new orders (up 5.2 points to 52.3), production (up 2.3 points to 49.5), employment (up 3.1 point to 54.7), and supplier deliveries (up 1.0 point to 50.3). The new orders/inventories gap also improved from -5.9 to 1.8 as inventories dipped 2.5 points to 50.5. This report is somewhat reassuring after weak durable goods and the Chicago PMI last week.

 

2. Construction spending disappointed with a 0.6% drop in August, with nonresidential construction down 1.3% and residential up 0.9%. This lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate to 1.8% from 1.9%.

And this despite the massive short cover inducing Mfg ISM? One of these days Goldman's economic exuberance (this number was 2.3% three weeks ago) will play out though, you'll see.

 


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Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

For all the silver stackers here at ZH:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T4Y75Azi4A

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

weren't they watching cnbc when the chicago pmi and mfctg ism were announced/

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Goldman always seems to get what it wants...and for once I'm rooting for them.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I think they're working the "bad cop", "good cop" game with Charlie Evans so that turd can keeping spouting off about all the money the Fed's going to keep printing.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Awww, Goldman were probably too busy friday to work through the numbers accurately. Gotta a top job in Spain to fill.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Curt W
Curt W's picture

I am lowering my Q3 final estimate to .9% and Q4 to  - .4%

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

So in reality growth should come in at 1%. Maybe Ben needs to add another 50 billion per month.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

"Growth"

Wassat...nominal or real?

Otherwise its just inflation...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That's still awesomer than awesome news. Rally on!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You see there are two sets of numbers. One for public consumption and the other we already know from living in this dreadful economy.

When will the charade end? We have not had a real economic recovery yet under Obama. But hey you all need to vote for hope and change again you see because Bush got you in to this.

Forward. Code for shut up if you don't like it.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Oct. 1, 2012

The day they blew the lid off the world's largest can of bullshit .

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not meaningless stuff.

This number decides the depth of cutting in the fiscal cliff negotiations.  The debt ceiling deal projected 3% GDP as far as the eye can see.  If you come in about half that, you have far less tax revenue to work with and should be cutting spending deeper to hit deficit / GDP targets.

Welcome to Greece.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Goldman got their clients slaughtered doing this Friday. Printing money matters more than short term GDP and projections.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Is this the time they try to take it all?

A call by the St. Louis Fed to abolish patents (and thus incentive) is a call to destroy property rights and freedom in America. These people are Marxist globalists, the Rubins and Kissingers who offshored America’s manufacturing base to China, trampling on human rights for dirty lucre.  And now, it's not enough. They want more!

Pseudo Red China capitalism can never give the spring to invention that our Founding Fathers gave to Americans when in the United States Constitution they included the provision “to promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.”

Patents! The right to intellectual property.

This right of inventors is uniquely American and from it America reaped the spectacular results that are now being made in China and unloaded off her ships onto our shores.  A 1997 study of the inventors honored in the National Inventors Hall of Fame in Akron, Ohio, revealed that 91% of the world’s greatest inventors worked in America and only 9% in other countries. Freedom and America’s superior patent system are what gave men the incentive to burn the midnight oil for a chance to own a property right in their own invention. 

Here's the story:

Another Call for Abolishing Patents, This One From the St. Louis Fed

WOOFYGOOFY writes "The most recent call for curtailing patents comes not just from an unexpected source, the St. Louis Fed, but also in its most basic form: total abolition of all patents. Via the Atlantic Monthly: a new working paper (PDF) from two members of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Michele Boldrin and David Levine, in which they argue that while a weak patent system may mildly increase innovation with limited side-effects, such a system can never be contained and will inevitably lead to a stifling patent system such as that presently found in the U.S. They argue: '...strong patent systems retard innovation with many negative side-effects. ... the political demand for stronger patent protection comes from old and stagnant industries and firms, not from new and innovative ones. Hence the best solution is to abolish patents entirely through strong constitutional measures and to find other legislative instruments, less open to lobbying and rent-seeking.' They acknowledge that some industries could suffer under a such a system. They single out pharma, and suggest other legislative measures be found to foster innovation whenever there is clear evidence that laissez-faire under-supplies it."

http://yro.slashdot.org/story/12/09/30/0327257/another-call-for-abolishing-patents-this-one-from-the-st-louis-fed

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

...and now for todays weather...........please ignore our previous 10 day forecast.....as it was completely wrong....our new doplar radar map now shows rain, heavy rain.......however, you should be advised that the chance of this rain is only 50%.....so please make sure you dress accordingly...................

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Fuck if i care about GS shitty analysis

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Goldman's crack commando team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_12E1EN6fs

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment mendigo
mendigo's picture

I give them some credit
first experience with something like truth may be difficult - uncharted waters
of course if they are attempting truth it means they have an ulterior motive

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Still about .92% too high there GS boyz.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!