Goldman Lowers Q3 GDP Forecast Again, From 1.9% To 1.8%

Tyler Durden's picture

It seems like it was only Friday that Goldman's daily GDP forecast adjustment team revised its GDP lower. Oh wait, it was. Since it is another day ending in -y, here comes Hatzius' crack commando team with yet another downward revision.

Construction spending -0.6% (mom) for August vs GS +1.0%, median forecast +0.5%.




1. The ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 51.5 from 49.6 (vs. consensus of 49.7). The underlying composition was also friendly, with increases in new orders (up 5.2 points to 52.3), production (up 2.3 points to 49.5), employment (up 3.1 point to 54.7), and supplier deliveries (up 1.0 point to 50.3). The new orders/inventories gap also improved from -5.9 to 1.8 as inventories dipped 2.5 points to 50.5. This report is somewhat reassuring after weak durable goods and the Chicago PMI last week.


2. Construction spending disappointed with a 0.6% drop in August, with nonresidential construction down 1.3% and residential up 0.9%. This lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate to 1.8% from 1.9%.

And this despite the massive short cover inducing Mfg ISM? One of these days Goldman's economic exuberance (this number was 2.3% three weeks ago) will play out though, you'll see.

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bigdumbnugly's picture

weren't they watching cnbc when the chicago pmi and mfctg ism were announced/

HD's picture

Goldman always seems to get what it wants...and for once I'm rooting for them.

FL_Conservative's picture

I think they're working the "bad cop", "good cop" game with Charlie Evans so that turd can keeping spouting off about all the money the Fed's going to keep printing.

No Euros please we're British's picture

Awww, Goldman were probably too busy friday to work through the numbers accurately. Gotta a top job in Spain to fill.

Curt W's picture

I am lowering my Q3 final estimate to .9% and Q4 to  - .4%

Dr. Engali's picture

So in reality growth should come in at 1%. Maybe Ben needs to add another 50 billion per month.

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture


Wassat...nominal or real?

Otherwise its just inflation...

EscapeKey's picture

That's still awesomer than awesome news. Rally on!

Everybodys All American's picture

You see there are two sets of numbers. One for public consumption and the other we already know from living in this dreadful economy.

When will the charade end? We have not had a real economic recovery yet under Obama. But hey you all need to vote for hope and change again you see because Bush got you in to this.

Forward. Code for shut up if you don't like it.

Temporalist's picture

Oct. 1, 2012

The day they blew the lid off the world's largest can of bullshit .

CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not meaningless stuff.

This number decides the depth of cutting in the fiscal cliff negotiations.  The debt ceiling deal projected 3% GDP as far as the eye can see.  If you come in about half that, you have far less tax revenue to work with and should be cutting spending deeper to hit deficit / GDP targets.

Welcome to Greece.

Quinvarius's picture

Goldman got their clients slaughtered doing this Friday. Printing money matters more than short term GDP and projections.

JR's picture

Is this the time they try to take it all?

A call by the St. Louis Fed to abolish patents (and thus incentive) is a call to destroy property rights and freedom in America. These people are Marxist globalists, the Rubins and Kissingers who offshored America’s manufacturing base to China, trampling on human rights for dirty lucre.  And now, it's not enough. They want more!

Pseudo Red China capitalism can never give the spring to invention that our Founding Fathers gave to Americans when in the United States Constitution they included the provision “to promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries.”

Patents! The right to intellectual property.

This right of inventors is uniquely American and from it America reaped the spectacular results that are now being made in China and unloaded off her ships onto our shores.  A 1997 study of the inventors honored in the National Inventors Hall of Fame in Akron, Ohio, revealed that 91% of the world’s greatest inventors worked in America and only 9% in other countries. Freedom and America’s superior patent system are what gave men the incentive to burn the midnight oil for a chance to own a property right in their own invention. 

Here's the story:

Another Call for Abolishing Patents, This One From the St. Louis Fed

WOOFYGOOFY writes "The most recent call for curtailing patents comes not just from an unexpected source, the St. Louis Fed, but also in its most basic form: total abolition of all patents. Via the Atlantic Monthly: a new working paper (PDF) from two members of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Michele Boldrin and David Levine, in which they argue that while a weak patent system may mildly increase innovation with limited side-effects, such a system can never be contained and will inevitably lead to a stifling patent system such as that presently found in the U.S. They argue: '...strong patent systems retard innovation with many negative side-effects. ... the political demand for stronger patent protection comes from old and stagnant industries and firms, not from new and innovative ones. Hence the best solution is to abolish patents entirely through strong constitutional measures and to find other legislative instruments, less open to lobbying and rent-seeking.' They acknowledge that some industries could suffer under a such a system. They single out pharma, and suggest other legislative measures be found to foster innovation whenever there is clear evidence that laissez-faire under-supplies it."

kito's picture

...and now for todays weather...........please ignore our previous 10 day it was completely wrong....our new doplar radar map now shows rain, heavy rain.......however, you should be advised that the chance of this rain is only please make sure you dress accordingly...................

resurger's picture

Fuck if i care about GS shitty analysis

mendigo's picture

I give them some credit
first experience with something like truth may be difficult - uncharted waters
of course if they are attempting truth it means they have an ulterior motive

fuu's picture

Still about .92% too high there GS boyz.