Guest Post: The 71%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

According to a recent CNN poll, 60% of Americans want go to war with Iran to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons.

This in spite of the fact that the US intelligence community is fairy unanimous that Iran is not even currently pursuing nuclear weapons. According to Micah Zenko:

First, as Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has repeatedly reaffirmed since late January, “we don’t believe they’ve actually made the decision to go ahead with a nuclear weapon.” Just yesterday, James Risen reported in the New York Times that the IC continues to believe (based on an assessment first made in November 2007) that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei halted his country’s nuclear weapons activities in 2003.

 

This might be hard for many to grasp, since polling has found the American people disagree with the collective judgment of the 210,000 civilian and military employees and 30,000 private contractors comprising the IC. A recent poll found that 84 percent of Americans think Iran is developing nuclear weapons, while another from February 2010 concluded that 71 percent of Americans believe that Iran currently has nuclear weapons.

So 60% of Americans believe Iran should be attacked to prevent nuclear proliferation. Simultaneously 71% of Americans — in total contradiction to the evidence recognised by both the CIA and Mossad that Iran is not currently even developing a nuclear weapon — believe that Iran currently has nuclear weapons. There is almost certainly a high degree of overlap — and that’s some severe cognitive dissonance. Where are such ideas coming from?

There are some voices in the wilderness that are expressing the view that Iran already has a nuclear weapon to anyone who will listen.

According to Reza Kahlili, who claims to be a former CIA spy who infiltrated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard:

The pressure the United States and the West is bringing to bear on Iran to keep it from acquiring nuclear weapons is all for naught. Not only does the Islamic Republic already have nuclear weapons from the old Soviet Union, but it has enough enriched uranium for more. What’s worse, it has a delivery system.

And where did Iran supposedly get those weapons?

In the early 1990s, the CIA asked me to find an Iranian scientist who would testify that Iran had the bomb. The CIA had learned that Iranian intelligence agents were visiting nuclear installations throughout the former Soviet Union, with particular interest in Kazakhstan.

 

Meanwhile, Paul Muenstermann, then vice president of the German Federal Intelligence Service, said Iran had received two of the three nuclear warheads and medium-range nuclear delivery systems from Kazakhstan. It also was reported that Iran had purchased four 152 mm nuclear shells from the former Soviet Union, which were reportedly stolen and sold by former Red Army officers.

 

To make matters worse, several years later, Russian officials stated that when comparing documents in transferring nuclear weapons from Ukraine to Russia, there was a discrepancy of 250 nuclear weapons.

 

Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer, an experienced intelligence officer and recipient of a Bronze Star, told me that his sources say Iran has two workable nuclear warheads

Unlike the 71%, I’m not really convinced by this — if anything, it could be Iranian disinformation to try and avoid an American or Israeli attack. More importantly, the US and Israeli intelligence community at large don’t buy it. If they had any real evidence that Iran had a bomb today, Netanyahu would have been presenting it at the UN instead of drawing red lines on Wile E. Coyote bomb diagrams.

But if it were true, it would illustrate an extremely important point — that Iran with a nuclear weapon has not tried to obliterate Israel or the United States.

And if America were to attack Iran to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, and Iran already has a nuclear weapon, the consequence could be thousands or millions of death — an attack on Iran would be even more dangerous and misadventurous for both the West and Israel than it already seems.

That makes the fact that a majority of Americans — as well as a disturbing number of hawkish policy analysts and talking heads like Reza Kahlili — agree that Iran already has a nuclear weapon, and that Iran should be attacked even more mind-boggling. To conclude (based on rumours and hear’say) that Iran already has a nuclear weapon, and simultaneously to encourage an attack on them is the height of foolishness.

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Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:07 | 2845835 SilverTree
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War, what is it good for?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2845874 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

GDP?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:25 | 2845963 knukles
knukles's picture

I'm all for war with Iran.
After all, I just got finished with a war with China and you know what that's like... as soon as you're done you want another one already.

Baaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:51 | 2846284 economics9698
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If Iran is suffering hyperinflation time to take a step back and let them self implode.  Why interfere?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:04 | 2846323 Bicycle Repairman
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The CNN poll is BS.  Here is the question America:  Do you want a war that will kill millions and accomplish nothing.  Now poll that, bitchez.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:20 | 2846379 BigJim
BigJim's picture

The answer would probably be yes. I mean, if the debacles in Iraq + Afganistan aren't enough to wake up the US populace...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:25 | 2846397 imaginalis
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71% of Americans thought they would win the Ryder Cup

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:44 | 2846470 BigJim
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  According to a recent CNN poll, 60% of Americans want go to war with Iran to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons.

Hey Aziz, I think you've messed up with this one. The poll you've linked to doesn't ask that question.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:02 | 2846513 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

According to recent Pravda poll, majority of Russians support Putin

According to recent CNN poll, 50% of Americans have IQ lower than 100.

According to recent poll, 0% of mothers say their babies are ugly.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:58 | 2846643 trebuchet
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I read somewhere Al Khamenei interpretation of Muslim doctrine is that that holding nuclear weapons is a sin.

As the article says - if Israel had evidence it would have presented it.  

The intelligence community all agree that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. They disagree about the Capability to make one, and the length of time it will take for Iran to make one (6 weeks, 6 months, 6 years? that determines the strike readiness countries need)  and have asked via IAEA for access to assess that CAPABILITY. 

Its like saying to a bunch of black/muslim/christian/gay/[enter your personal prejudice here] people living in a neighbourhood - i think you have the capability to kill and dont trust you so let me monitor and inspect your personal possessions to assess your CAPABILITY to be harmful to the neighbour hood and if I think you have that capability i am going to kill you. 

Nentyahu's very effective slide showed precisely at which point it will judge first: when ISRAEL thinks Iran has a 90% CAPABILITY. It is not going to wait to find out if the person gets to 100% or even when at 100% capability is going to use the weapon, it is going to execute that person for having a 90% CAPABILITY. 

So, what's the difference between that and a country saying that it has decided that its citizens with a  90% CAPABILITY of normal intelligence  are a threat to the rest and therefore is justified in exterminating them?

 

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 18:08 | 2846670 NaN
NaN's picture

IQ tests are revised to be harder, every 10-20 years.  That means if everyone were tested at once with the latest test, the average and median score would probably be below 100.  

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 20:55 | 2847024 boiltherich
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AH:

Physics implies the probability that not all polls can be wrong.  But, there was one last week, or the week before, that I found astonishing, in this presidential political poll not one single person identifying as a likely voter of African American heritage planned to vote for Romney.  Shit, I know of at least 4 blacks that voted for McCain.  Not one, zero.  Zilch. 

As to Russians, they are so unused to being polled (or getting phone calls) they will agree with anything you say just to be polite.  The average Russian is a sweeter form of life than the average westerner, not to well informed, but endearing all the same.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:17 | 2846366 CrockettAlmanac.com
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If Iran is suffering hyperinflation time to take a step back and let them self implode.  Why interfere?

 

But it is US interference through sanctions which is causing the economic turmoil in Iran. So do you want to interfere or not interfere?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:25 | 2845967 MillionDollarBonus_
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Iran, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Moroco, Saudi Arabia ... blah, blah, blah ... all the same to me. All of these countries are threats to our freedom and our way of life in America. These bastards showed no mercy during 911, but that won't stop domestic terrorists on Zerohedge from creating huge sob-stories about why we shouldn't invade them.  

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:33 | 2846001 SemperFord
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Milliondollahduffus, you are on ZH, so that makes you a domestic terrorist...crazy huh?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:52 | 2846286 economics9698
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He works at the BLS making $150,000 a year.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 18:44 | 2846731 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

He's your troll, and I'm his troll............

MDB has been getting more positive green arrows lately....

Not sure why, or what that means....

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 20:59 | 2847034 boiltherich
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Maybe because you are not MILLION DOLLAR BONUS and nobody spotted the "G" in your handle.  But, anyone that uses that dollar sign as an avatar gets a red arrow from me no matter what they post and most of the time I slide right past what is written there, MDB so contaminated that symbol that it is now a symbol for internet trollery.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:49 | 2846080 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

You gave yourself away. People who would actually believe this A) Would think Morocco are those things Spanish people shake, and B) wouldn't be able to name nearly that many foreign countries that aren't Canada or Mexico.

 

Edit: +1 nonetheless ;)

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:05 | 2846134 Darth Mul
Darth Mul's picture

The fuck are you talking about?  What had those countries to do with 9/11 and what does 9/11 have to do with Iran?

 

Be gone, Hasbara Troll - the military knows Israel and it's Ziocon allies in the US government did 9/11.

 

http://wikispooks.com/wiki/9/11:Israel_did_it

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diJGcakiepc

 

Alex Jones blames it on everyone but Zionist Neocons.

 

Funny, ain't it?  Given where all the evidence points?

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2004/01/lie-factory

http://www.deathrattlesports.com/archives/8957/ry-dawson-ignore-911-kooks-alex-jones/

 

Alex Jones is the equivalent of a "false messiah" wrapped in a false flag, surrounded.... surounded and supported by rabidly pro-Israel types.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:40 | 2846449 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

You shouldn't take MDB seriously.  He's always good for a laugh.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:35 | 2846217 Zero_Hope
Zero_Hope's picture

Amen!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:24 | 2846389 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

MillionDouchebagBonehead:

First, who is this "these bastards" you refer to?

Is Jamie AkmaDimonhead or Ayatollah Lloyd Blankfuck running some sort of coverty bullhshitty black op that you don't like? Hmmmm?

Second, you war-mongering little stain on society, the REAL WAR we need to wage is to CARPET BOMB the halls of your beloved BANKS, FEDERAL RESERVE, AND THE "INTELLIGENT BENEVLOENT CONGRESS" that you throne lick and dry hump like a rat dog that you are.

Iran? They can impode by themselves....

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 18:04 | 2846660 trebuchet
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MDB,

There are only 2 reasons for not supporting an invasion on those grounds.

1. IT IS MORALLY WRONG

2. It gives them PERMISSION to invade your ASS-CRACK on similar grounds and to demand your BACKING when they do it since you agreed to it in the first place when they did it to someone else. 

If you dont believe it is morally wrong, just bend over and enjoy the wait. 

 

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:53 | 2846630 NaN
NaN's picture

War is a debt generator, not a GDP improver, especially when the true costs and externalities are tallied.  Arms manufacturers stand to gain, but the costs are shared. 

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:12 | 2845875 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Killing.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:13 | 2845886 redpill
redpill's picture

In case anyone forgot, we gave Iran highly enriched uranium in 1967.  I guess it never occurred to anyone that the wind could change direction some day.

The real question is, why WOULDN'T Iran want a nuke?  If you have nukes the US wants to be your ally.  If you don't they want to be your bully.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:39 | 2846028 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Exactly.  Arab nations are being invaded by the US one by one.  The US has never invaded a nuclear armed country.  Do the math.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:45 | 2846067 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Do drone strikes on Pock-istan count?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:16 | 2846157 MachoMan
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Right, but statistics don't have anything to do with a particular instance.  It isn't enough just to have a nuke...  we probably know where it is...  of where a decent number of them are...  we'll act to secure them first thing on invasion...  just like we have plans for pakistan's nukes should anything happen to the governmental structure.

It isn't enough to have a nuke...  you need to have a lot of nukes AND they need to be capable of obliterating a major city...  unless you meet these criteria, prepare to be invaded...  cody wants a pony.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PX0F9JzLmg&feature=related

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:15 | 2846161 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

US has proved again and again and again that if you do not have nukes and have wealth, you will be robbed and destroyed.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:15 | 2845899 kito
kito's picture

pentagon welfare recipients.............

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:20 | 2845935 timbo_em
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The military-industrial complex.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:29 | 2845989 AnonymousCitizen
AnonymousCitizen's picture

Absolutely nuthin

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:50 | 2846085 Overfed
Overfed's picture

The Rothschilds and Rockefellers?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:55 | 2846101 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

Wow, I am really supposed to believes a boatload of bureaucrats who "heard it from sources" that they do have/don't have a bomb......and that somehow that true information is going to find the light of day.

 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:19 | 2846380 CrockettAlmanac.com
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The intelligence community was left holding the bag when it turned out that (surprise, surprise) Iraq had no WMD. It seems like they don't want to be put into that position again.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2846234 ConstantineK
ConstantineK's picture

Assuming this is not a rhetorical question...money and,hence, power.  An intelligent 14 year old could answer that with conviction but apparently not the 71% of our people to whom critical thinking means nothing. About the same percentage believed a few years back that Saddam Housein was behind the 9/11 attacks. Does that say anything to anybody?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 18:51 | 2846754 Umh
Umh's picture

Remember thats 71% of the 9% that respond to pollsters.

 

Heh; that's like the small percentage that respond to MDB.

Tue, 10/02/2012 - 08:17 | 2847811 GMadScientist
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"War, what is it good for?"

It's good for business!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:08 | 2845842 MichaelNY
MichaelNY's picture

Insanity reigns...and it's not an accident.  :-(

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:16 | 2845903 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Generations of Americans have been taught what to think and not how to think.  They have been taught to accept insanity without questioning it.  It has gotten to the point where rational, logical thought is rejected and labled "insanity" and, as you correctly point out, "insanity reigns".

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:21 | 2846386 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Enter Darwin.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:01 | 2846508 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Degenerations of Americans ...

Tue, 10/02/2012 - 03:48 | 2847585 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Tragically, that is too true ... In light of

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-01/guest-post-global-spring

The Global Spring

True enough, except for the optimism ...

THE MAJORITY ARE BRAIN DEAD SHEEP,

BRAINWASHED TO BELIEVE BULLSHIT!!!

They are guaranteed to regress and be more stupid and to attack each other, and so on, and so forth, NOT wake up to the banksters as their real enemy.

What I feel sad about is that when "Darwin Enters" and the only way to cope with the mass stupidity of the sheeple is that the elites will slaughter them off, is that, not only will I be caught up in that stampede, but so many young children will too!  If it were only the adults, that were idiots, and were going to get slaughtered, after being fleeced and fleeced, because they are way too stupid to do anything realistic to prevent that, then I would not care as much. However, what bothers me is that the god damn stupid sheeple that are the majority of Americans are destroying the future of their children. Those children are innocent of that evil, since those children are not being deliberately ignorant, like the adults are. However the worst of the effects of the sheeple being slaughtered, because they ARE so stupid, is that their children will be too!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 20:06 | 2846904 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 in total contradiction to the evidence recognised by both the CIA and Mossad that Iran is not currently even developing a nuclear weapon

 

Then WHY is NetanyaHOO, bleating like a sheep.I would think BinYamin would certainly have access to this intel.Source for the Mossad info??.............

Something stinks.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:08 | 2845843 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

81% of Americans probably could not even find Iran on the world map

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:13 | 2845883 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

81% of Americans probably could not even find their arse in the dark...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:17 | 2845911 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

99% dont know what the petrodollar is and 99.9% dont know that exonn mobil runs the state dept, the treasury and the war dept..............

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 14:18 | 2845923 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Exxon Mobil? Do they carry iPhone5? I might consider a 3 year data plan with them.

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