Spot The Odd One Out

Tyler Durden's picture


There have been a few nations in the world over the last decade or so that have garnered somewhat mind-blowingly negative attention and have been forced to restructure, take losses, or default (semantics) on their debt (or financial system). Three of the best known are Argentina, Iceland, and most recently Greece. The following chart of GDP growth may have a lesson for every investor around the world (especially those in sovereign bonds) - and maybe more importantly for the Greek (and European) leadership. Is there something different about the post-restructuring growth in Greece that did not occur in the other two nations? Perhaps taking your medicine is indeed the right way to go - and enables growth to once again re-emerge - and the constant use of the M.A.D. argument is pure bluff.

Argentina vs Iceland vs Greece - GDP Growth...


Argentina restructured in Dec2001/Jan 2002 and Iceland bit the bullet on its banks in 2009

and the GDP per capita over the long-term...


Source: Google

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Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:27 | 2846189 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Fuck (e)U-rope

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:41 | 2846258 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

My mother makes $82 an hour spamming discussion boards. But because I'm a utilitarian socialist, I'm going to share the secret to prosperity because resources aren't finite and we can all be EQUALLY WEALTHY by doing VIRTUALLY NO WORK!

Just follow this link:


Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:59 | 2846301 CPL
CPL's picture

I would like to hear more of this interesting proposal, please subscribe me to your newsletter.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:40 | 2846448 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

it is called inheritance


oldest wealth building scheme in the world.


unless you outlaw capital gains from luck of timing, marriage, inheritance......capitalism does not have legitemacy to claim meritocracy.


Who the hell wants to work when others get ahead without producing anything?





Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:52 | 2846485 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 unless you outlaw capital gains from luck of timing, marriage, inheritance......capitalism does not have legitemacy to claim meritocracy.

Capitalism can coexist with inheritance taxes. You appear not to know understand what 'capitalism' actually means.

Furthermore, no one claims inheritance is meritocratic. However, becoming unusually wealthy via voluntary transactions in a free marketplace is difficult without brains/hard work/talent. You probably think having those is down to 'luck' too, and maybe you're right, but so what? You prefer the present alternative, central planning?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:14 | 2846540 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

I would pay $82 to know who my mother is...

If she surfs ZH, she will recognize me...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 18:41 | 2846732 CalDre
CalDre's picture

"becoming unusually wealthy via voluntary transactions in a free marketplace is difficult without brains/hard work/talent"

Hard work such as:  laundering drug money?  Exploiting the talented but not intelligent (musicians, boxers, etc.)?  Competitive restraints?  Trading on inside information?  Stealing land from aboriginees (/me living in San Diego, where real estate can approach millions of dollars per acre - consider that this land was stolen from aboriginees just about 100 years ago, and all the people who are filthy rich for it)?  Corruption (mineral contracts, etc.)?

Hard work is the myth that the elite want you to believe.  Hard work will make you middle class.  To be rich requires sociopathy, or inheritance.  Yes there may be some exceptions, though I can't think of any, but they would be rare enough to prove the rule.  (Even many in the upper middle class, who earned their money through actual work rather than luck, theft or ciminal activity, did so due to regulatory barriers to entry - fields such as medicine and law, which are NOT free markets due to government regulation - which I am not saying is a bad thing in these cases, just saying it's not a free market.)

Tue, 10/02/2012 - 08:48 | 2847899 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Everything you listed still requires effort and hard work. Just because an enterprise is illegal doesn't make it easy money. A sound understanding of money (which our children aren't taught) will help one get very far. But when the vast majority of people (not exclusive to Americans) view a home as an investment rather than a liability, the problem becomes pretty clear. Perhaps making billions is limited to a crony system, but theres nothing wrong with makeing six figues via your own enterprise.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:04 | 2846315 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

+100 for you sir.  You just summed up in one sentence, why we in the "developed world, are all fucked.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:08 | 2846332 machineh
machineh's picture

My mom makes $82,000 an hour flipping Treasuries back to the Fed a week after they're issued.

But then, she's a Goldman Sachs mommie ... /sarc

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:10 | 2846339 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

I didn't know GS employees had mothers. I always assumed that they reproduced through mitosis.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:14 | 2846541 GoldenDragon
GoldenDragon's picture

Either that or they delgate the gestation of their young to jackels and other such creatures.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:19 | 2846557 q99x2
q99x2's picture

How old is your mother?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:39 | 2846598 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

BIG difference between greece and the other two countries: The other two had control over their own currency!

so of course Greece cant bounce back, coz it has the euro stopping the adjustment... 


oh wait,... i get it... .that is what you are trying to say... gr needs to exit the euro..... duh

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:27 | 2846192 ATM
ATM's picture

Argentina's numbers are all fake.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2846230 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

Sure, but fake relative to which country? China? The US? Finland maybe, but my guess is not so bad as many others. The takeaway point is that in order to stop a debt induced economic comma you need to lower the debt load, not increase it; and default is often the best option. The solution to too much debt is ….. drum roll …. not more but less of it; that is, except if your are the economic equivalent of a cultural Marxist who is concerned about your banker relative who made some pretty silly sovereign bets.


Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2846293 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Right you are, Kenny.  Looks like Argentina could be heading down the path towards default yet again.  That's not surprising given the liberal socialists who have been elected over the last decade. 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:12 | 2846346 machineh
machineh's picture

To be specific, Argentina's cumulative probability of default is 64%, as shown here:

Peronism makes you stupid and hungry, and crave dollars ...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2846310 CPL
CPL's picture

Think anyone has been telling the truth?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:28 | 2846195 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Wow - $35K per capita GDP in Iceland, and defaulted on the banksters.

I'm moving.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:33 | 2846211 N. B. Forrest
N. B. Forrest's picture

Have you ever been to Iceland?  There is a reason only 300,000 people live there. 

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:41 | 2846252 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Its a beautiful country. What are you talking about?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:41 | 2846256 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Is it due to restrictive immigration?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:45 | 2846266 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, it is,

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:46 | 2846270 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I read that it was tuff to get in.... you either had to be a Chess world champion or a direct decendant.  I wasnt sure if it was changed post screw-the-banker vote.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2846288 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

I thought it was because their income tax rate was 50%

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:45 | 2846267 seek
seek's picture

Have you ever seen icelandic women? There's a reason they have restrictive immigration policies, between income and hotties per capita they'd be overrun in months.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2846308 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

Loved the "Women of Iceland" issue - loved it.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 17:05 | 2846519 hannah
hannah's picture

you should check out the 'women of kenya' that mag has some hot babes.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 19:13 | 2846801 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Actually yes I have.  Beautiful landscapes, clean air, great seafood, blond goddesses soaking in the Blue Lagoon, safe, northern most golf course in the world.  Have been to a lot worse places than Iceland.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:29 | 2846196 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Damn stocks are getting sold off big time. 

I guess King Dollar is right around the corner.


Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:02 | 2846311 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

Gaps filled today.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:31 | 2846197 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



The only difference between Greece and the U.S. is we have the World's Reserve Currency our Socialist spenders would rival them in every aspect otherwise


Americans Are Already Double and Triple Taxed

Germany told to 'come clean’ over Greece

The Banks should be like restaurants and we should get to know where the rats are


Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:57 | 2846297 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Well, it is a big difference.  

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2846208 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Easy for the criminals to let isolated Iceland escape; different matter for a Euro country.   Once a Euro domino tilts too far, then the whole NWO thingey goes kaput.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2846235 fourchan
fourchan's picture

or does it?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:39 | 2846248 Thisson
Thisson's picture

This New World Order thingie is getting kind of old and played out...  Can't we get a Newer World Order or something?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:07 | 2846327 Umh
Umh's picture

SOWO: Same Old World Order.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2846209 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

The Czech and Slovak Chiefs of state already dare to tell openly: There is no shame to have your Drachma back!!!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:48 | 2846276 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

BOHEMIANS RULE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:36 | 2846227 Islandcarl
Islandcarl's picture

Hmmm..possible shades of the Demyansk Pocket.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2846236 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I look forward to Krugman finding some way of distorting that graph, much like he did with those of the Baltic nations.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2846237 Jason T
Jason T's picture

There is hope I must say.


Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2846241 youngman
youngman's picture

I have a letter from a friend who lives in Argentina.....its bad and getting worse...and yes the public numbers are fake...he says inflation is 25%....and you can´t buy dollars...

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:46 | 2846271 knukles
knukles's picture

Ditto from a buddy of mine... a Tango nut... goes there once a year to dance, believe it or not...
He says it's downright next to a living hell.
Broad based impoverishment.

And yes (I beleive there were even articles here on ZH?) about the "official" manufacture of joy and delusion which nobody believes.
Dystopian reality.

I Love Kristina

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2846289 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Wasn't there an article about Argentina jailing economists who reported un-official numbers?

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:19 | 2846376 11b40
11b40's picture

Soon coming to a city near you......

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:04 | 2846322 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

She looks like the Palin del Sur.

Mon, 10/01/2012 - 16:48 | 2846476 mccoyspace
mccoyspace's picture

article from the NYT from a few weeks ago about well-off Argentinians bidding up condos in Miami and NYC to try to protect against the really bad inflation.

(how dare they export their inflation to our markets! Who would do such a thing?)


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