Incumbent Presidential Winners - Be Careful What You Wish For

Tyler Durden's picture

Between Obama's (equity-market-driven) election odds at Intrade and IEM, WaPo's projections, and Gallup's poll results, it seems an incumbent victory is all but guaranteed - even after over-hyped video clips are distributed. Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley's erstwhile realist strategist digs through the empirical data and finds that Gallup's latest poll suggests the 2012 election will not be close. History is also on Obama's side - 10 incumbents have won while 3 (Hoover, Carter, and Bush Sr.) have lost since 1900. The trouble for equity investors is that, despite what you have been told (and we already warned) about election year cycles, the post-election incumbent-victory performance is on average a 4.5% loss over six months. So add this 'doldrum' hangover to the post-election European 'event risk', the US 'fiscal-cliff' and debt-ceiling debacle, and China's Politburo meeting on Nov. 6th and it looks like Thanksgiving can't come soon enough.


The S&P and the IEM Contract for Obama’s Re-Election Appear to Move in Tandem


While odds and polls may be high, WaPo's projections perhaps offer some hope to Romney...


Quadrennial Presidential and Congressional Elections Since 1928


On Average, the Market Rallies Before and Sells Off After an Incumbent Is Re-Elected


And in case you wondered whether Obama was the driver of equity market strength as opposed to equity market strength driving Obama's increasing odds of a win - here are the results...


Source: Morgan Stanley

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Atomizer's picture



We’ll greece ya’ll mother fuckers one way or another.. 

Yo ya’ll porch mokeys will vote fo’ me in November. if’in ya’ll niggas don’ vote fo’ me, ah’ll make sho yo’ vote count towards me. Dont make me close yo’ highways an make ya’ll take SEIU bus trip ta voting boof Don’ make me come ova there bitch...

Yo Let me be clear, anyone hoo thinks dey can escape from da plantation iz mistake just like mammy.


You’ll see what I mean very shortly. In the meantime, enjoy the WH carnival side show.


AU5K's picture

Ironically, Obama is very very bullish for gold (due to his complete and utter incompetence), which I happen to be 100% invested in.  What a catch 22.


Or should I say, catch $22 hundred.

Richard Chesler's picture

Corrupt hopey changey will make sure this time is different because his masters are savvy businessmen.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Maybe they will wear little hats and drive onto the debate stage in clown cars.

RSloane's picture

Or maybe wear their Summer of Recovery party hats!

AGuy's picture

"Obama is very very bullish for gold"

No matter who wins, it bullsh for gold. We have two incompetence candidates. I think if even Geo. Washington was running again, it still would make no difference. There is simply too much debt, too many false promises made to save the union. Any decisions made can only speed or slow down the collapse.

malikai's picture

Yep. I think this makes one thing certain. Obamney will definitely fix everything.

Just look at the superior talent he's seeking. Who couldn't feel all warm and fuzzy looking at those names?

Ayn NY's picture

First, I agree with you, but second; keep in mind Washington was a Hameltonian and therefore supported a federal banking system.

AGuy's picture

"keep in mind Washington was a Hameltonian and therefore"

But not Crony capitalism. Hamalton's interests was to promote real growth and to secure the union.  His intention (whether it was incorrect) is to provide a banking system that promoted sound banking to make sure people that needed loans could get them, not to promote plutocrastic gov't. He had no idea that the US central bank would turn into an abomination. or perhaps I should say "an obomination".


putaipan's picture

well he certainly has played the 'cosby card' before the debate, but twhat really got me me in the last ten days of the drudge side bar news cycle was how "sexy"  the democrats were....biden's wife description of joe, vote like you nether regions depende on it, i forgot like 3 or 4 obvious ones.....but the messege was clear- we're too sexy for this job too sexy. straight out of bernaise getting women to smoke.

The Shootist's picture

Thankyou Dick Morris and Karl Rove. Dumbasses.

The Shootist's picture

What, they're the stalwarts who kept preaching Romney's electability. GOP stupidity and arrogance coming home to roost.

max2205's picture

And believe me, it will be frontrun too

LetThemEatRand's picture

The two party system is a sham.  Unfortunately, it will take a collapse to convince the general population of this fact.  And then it will get worse.'s picture

Now tell us one more time how elected government will save us all.

chump666's picture

It will be amusing when the markets tank to hell just before elections.

Mmm the panic...

SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

no, it will be more amusing when obama blames it on bush.....the markets are going to fucking tank sometime 10/12-election

syntaxterror's picture

what markets? most stocks are owned for less than 10 seconds now anyway...

disabledvet's picture

a 40 percent turnout is no victory. our system is BROKEN. it will be interesting to see who follows Texas Governor Perry "into the vacuum." it is interesting to think...since we haven't had an election about what's actually in the National Interest since Reagan...what particular interest this one will be about? It's sure not terrorism! Income inequality? HAHAHAHAHAHA! Hmmm. NOPE, NOT THAT EITHER PRESIDENT OBAMA! Let's see....uhhhh, "i killed that guy."? yep...that sounds better...

"and his name better be Assad"...and "you'd better tell the folks that's just for starters."

Dr. Engali's picture

At this point I really don't care. Even though I know Obummer is a lying evil SOB through and through at least I know what we are up against. I'll still vote for Ron Paul in good conscience and prepare for what is to come.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I wish Ross Perot would run again.

"Perot says his three wishes for the country would be to have a “strong, moral ethical base,” a “strong family unit in every home” and a better public school system."

He's a Billionaire who gets it.

El Tuco's picture

America doesn't deserve Perot or for that matter Ron Paul....It deserves what it is about to get.....4 more fucked up years. Here's hoping time flies....

LetThemEatRand's picture

I disagree that we deserve less, but I agree that we're going to get [more].

Dr. Engali's picture

Rand you are a fairly smart person surely you know Perot was part of the game. In case I'm wrong let me tell you why he was. Bush was a fairly popular war president with a whopping 91 % approval rating,but they needed a democrat to pass NAFTA. There is no way Bush could have gotten away with it. So they enlisted Perot to steal votes from Bush and voila we got Clinton with 41% of the total vote. Why do you think Perot started acting nuts when he got too popular? He ce too close to breaking the two party system. Nafta they say .. Is history. Think it through. The matrix runs deep.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I never thought about it that way before.  If you're right, it proves my basic tenet that We The People need to resist the accumulation of dynastic wealth.  I voted for Perot because I believed (perhaps naively as you suggest) that a Billionaire could have the interests of someone other than himself in mind when running for office.   If your matrix theory is correct, then we all need to focus on getting these monied elites out of politics or any other non-elected version of running things.

Manipuflation's picture

LTER, I have supported Ron Paul since before anyone even knew who he was in 2008.  Hell, do you remember Helen Chenowith?  I have done all of the delegate bullshit and seen it for what it really is and that it is that it is a dog and pony show.  When Campaign for Liberty started up right after the 2008 electon I began to have my doubts about the whole situation.  I bought into the dogma for a little while longer but it was not for me with C4L. 

Well, 2012 came around and even though I moved to a different senate district, they tracked me down because I kept the same cell phone number.  I was planning on going to a DFL caucus this time so I could see how those jags rig the game but cocksuckered myself in the name of liberty again by going to an R precint caucus because I got guilted into it.(my bad)  I planned on staying quiet but it turns out no one knew how to run the caucus there except for me so I had to go to the front of the class and get it done.  It is scripted for fuck's sake but the covener was lost and time is money.

I could go on and I will eventually but right now I am so sick of the charade of this "political choice" that I can not express words.  I really do not see any future for the US despite the Constitution or shortcomings thereof.  It is my opinion that the idea of a United States is invalid.  Drag out the Constitution or whatever but the reality is that Article 1, Section 8 exists.  Not to many RP folks can explain Article 1, Section 8 and then validate why we should just "follow the Constitution" arbitrarily.  I think we did that already, and where have we arrived as a result?      

vast-dom's picture

why look at things so black and white LetThemEatRand? of course a billionare could be a good prez, in theory. but at this stage no good man would want the job, rich or poor. it's like Plato said once upon a time: no Philosopher King would ever want the leadership job when it's obvious they're just steering the ship of fools. It was in Ancient Greece as it is today: humanity may have more iGadgets, but they just can't transcend their shitty natures.

Common_Cents22's picture

Perot handed it to Clinton.

Perot recently said he wasn't really in favor of the tea party.

Perot is a rich idiot redneck. 

Perot made his billion off government contracts.

malikai's picture

Perot made his billion off government contracts.

Sounds like most coopting TP politicos to me. Not sure why he wouldn't be in favor of them.

putaipan's picture

naw he was an innocent lamb who made his money off the government teat....look how genuinely supprised/scared he was by the dirty threats from gb's goons he got . betchya he actually thought oswald did it.

Overfed's picture

Eggzactly. I've been explaining to everyone who will listen that there is no appreciable difference between O'bomb-a and Ro-money.

When it comes to:

 Indefinite Detention

 "Patriot Act"


 The "war on drugs"

 The never ending false flag "war on terror"

 Expanding the police state

 Expanding entitlements to buy votes

 O'bomb-a care

 Shitting on the Constitution and wiping with the Bill of Rights

They are on the same fuckin' page.

AGuy's picture

"I'll still vote for Ron Paul in good conscience"

Sure wouldn't matter either way. Mittens is unlikey to be any different than O'bama. Nov 2012 is a "Its heads I win, tales, you lose" election.

CosmicDebris's picture

O and R either don't have a clue as to what is coming, don't believe what
many think is coming, or have some inside word that any collapse
will not happen during the upcoming watch. Otherwise, who in their
right mind would even want the job at this point.

Dr. Engali's picture

Over the past four years we have witnessed the unbelievable narcissism of Obummer. There is no doubt in my mind that this fucker wants to be at the helm of this ship when it sinks. As a " citizen of the world" he will consider it a great honor to take this fucker under. Like Nero playing his violin while Rome burned ( a myth I know) Obummer will be remembered as the one who played golf while the empire crumbled.

TBT or not TBT's picture

This is active nocivity, for sure.   The guy bathed in theories about how to take down the evil imperialist exploitative west, and USA for most of his life.    D'Sousa has him nailed.

The Shootist's picture

I thought it was a good film and D'souza was generous about not harping other likely radical Obama sentiments.

Manipuflation's picture

"There is no doubt in my mint..."

WTF?  This whole time you have had a mint?  Why didn't you say so?  Why waste any more time then and let's get to minting up some silver coins.  We have already learned from Mr. von NautHaus what not to do so let's start with that in mind.

Here is my idea.

Denomination:  1 Dole

ASW:  .10, .25, .50 and 1.00 ounces of .9999 fine silver

Obverse:  Fist with extended middle finger in high relief so it really stands off the coin

Motto:  In No One We Trust

Mint mark: FU

Date:  Eternity

Reverse:  High relief of the stock ZH avatar of a person with a bag over his head.  Denomination of One Dole.

Rim:  (Smooth) Fuck Legal Tender For All Debts Public or Private imprint.

Die:  Highly polished

I'm open to other ideas as well.


+1 to you Dr. E

samcontrol's picture

A violin during the
empire :).

It was a harp, no myth.

ebworthen's picture

After six months the euphorhysteria wears off and people realize the shit doesn't matter.


Banks:  1
People:  0

A Lunatic's picture

You didn't elect that..........

Cloud9.5's picture

The writing is on the wall.  Our future is Detroit.

tony bonn's picture

obama was drooling over the prospects of the highly "electable" romney (even though romney is the sacrificial bob dole the plutocrats / bildebergers selected to guarantee the indonesian's election )

 a hoover / carter ticket would have generated more enthusiasm that romney - talk about a turd.....

in the end it doesn't matter....anyone who votes for obamney is a traitor....

Curt W's picture

Make your vote really count,

Write in NONE of the ABOVE

And loudly pronounce your choice as you leave.

pashley1411's picture

Eubonics will be the language of our new overlords.   ;/

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Don't waste your vote.  Romney is going to get wiped out.  Write in Ron Paul.  There is no cost to voting your conscience.

AllTheMarbles's picture

No cost????    The price WE pay for YOU  "voting your conscience" is another four years of Obama.  If you support Obama just say so.....don't be a pussy by saying your voting for RP based on some self-serving principles….. (i.e. don’t blame me…. I did vote for that guy).

Fuck you and your is a thought, be a man - take a position that means something.  You have a choice … is either Obama or Romney – that is it, your vote for RP isn't counted -- fuck you and your feel good buddies!!  

Take a stand – that makes a difference vs. being a pussy all your life………


AGuy's picture

Voting for Mittens is voting for the Morman version of O'bama. Mittens is a closet socialist, just like Mayor Bloomberg is. He will promote a socialist agenda. We are at the point where the candidate they promises the most entitlements or handouts wins. Especially in an depressed ecomony when few real paying jobs are available. America Democracy has died and our gov't has been takenover by a plutocracy.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fuck it, I'm voting for Ross Perot.

slaughterer's picture

I am adamant about writing in 

Ron Paul and Tyler Durden

Laugh all you want.  It is my vote.