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Complete Fed Failure: Retail Investors Pull Out Most From Domestic Equity Funds In Two Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just as we had suspected for months, Bernanke's attempt to herd cats and to drive retail investors into equities is now a complete and unmitigated catastrophe. According to just released ICI data, in the week ended September 26, the second full week after the announcement of QE3, retail investors pulled $5.1 billion from domestic equity funds, following a massive $4.8 billion outflow the week prior, and the most in 2 months. This is also the sixth largest weekly outflow in 2012 to date, a year in which over $100 billion has already been pulled from equity mutual funds. And since we now know that Bernanke's only motive for QE3 is to stimulate a wealth effect and to push everyone into the broken casino, where such trading farces as Kraft's flash smash today, as Knight Capital's implosion a month ago, and FaceBook's IPO, not to mention the virtually daily Flash Crash in at least one name, have killed every last shred of faith in equities, it can be safely said that QE3 has failed three short weeks after being launched. As to where the money did go: why taxable bonds of course - not even the "dumb money" is that dumb to go where the Fed tells it to, and instead merely does what the Fed does: it keeps on frontrunning the Fed's monetization of the US deficit, which is now going on for the 3rd year in a row. Eventually "this time may be different." But not yet.

 

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Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2853212 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Fuck you Ben.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:48 | 2853229 redpill
redpill's picture

Rabbi Benjamin Iosef Shalom Bernanke, I want my financial foreskin back you bastard!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2853253 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

C'mon Tyler, the idea that Benron is trying to drive retail investors into the market is all a part of the script!

Benron, et al., know full well that retail is dead, and "the market" is nothing but algobots and their resulting systemic destruction. (I mean, it's not like we're the only ones with access to your outflow chart.)

Besides, every buy today will be a sell some tomorrow that they have to deal with. It's far easier to create fake trades that never have to be unwound in order to support the indexes.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:17 | 2853405 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

He circumsized you while going down a bumpy, dirt road out in the country.

 

You can have your foreskin back, but the damage is done.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:39 | 2853553 Mr. Regression
Mr. Regression's picture

Ouch.  I puckered right here at the keyboard....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:23 | 2853455 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"Mission accomplished....."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2853217 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sell those stocks and bonds!  Buy gold!

(or bearings)

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2853247 redpill
redpill's picture

Gold bearings?  They'd wear out kinda quick.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:46 | 2853219 Cdad
Cdad's picture

LOL!  Average Joe...kickin' ass and selling strength again.

Makes you wonder what the leverage factor in the big banks is just now?  They must be choking on equity positions at this point.  I wonder which TBTF bank will sell first [best]?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2853294 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Joe ain't selling strength, they are selling because they are cash-strapped.

That they got to liquidating their equity positions tells you all you need to know about their balance sheets and their access to leverage.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:02 | 2853659 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I was referring to the leverage in the big banks.  Thought that was pretty clear.

With equities being put back to them like they are, the need for Bernanke Bucks is growing every week.  And...Presto...QE3.

Funny how The Bernanke refuses to cede to the will of the people.  Every week, the people vote no confidence in the equity casino, and every month now, the FED props them back up.

Nice Banana Republic.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:29 | 2854296 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The market's propped up like El Cid 'til the election.....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:09 | 2854219 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

I was a selling Joe, mainly because I believe what Bernanke is saying.

1. He said he will keep pumping the stock market above where the free market would otherwise price it. That tells me I will get above-market pricing if I sell while he is pumping.

2. One must print to pump. That tells me he will keep eroding (counterfeiting) the fiat, possibly to the point of official devaluaton some years off. I'm not great at timing, so that makes 'now' a good time to take action.

3. I know the Chairman believes his theories will avoid a Depression, but I think he is probably only hiding one that is in progress already. My ability to see through official obfuscation is about as strong as my timing abilities. Those who weathered the GD entered it with low debt and good cash flow. I'm copying the historical survivors.

4. I also got confused by college loans this summer. They sent me a $150 check in June. Then in July the monthly payment jumped $150/mth. This was after five crony loan administrators were given a piece of this huge pie. I know this was tied to legislation that was a political football all year, but it just told me I really did not understand the details of the loans. Plus, they're non-dischargeable. I was in a position to just get out of them, so I did. 

Of the people, for the people, and by the people is being encroached upon. What the numbers show is nothing short of the people extracting themselves from a system that no longer holds them as the central and singular raison d'etre. 

I'll be a spender and borrower again with an honest 900 S&P before I will be at a vacuous 1,450. 

All I need is a true market to be active in one again.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:47 | 2853224 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

There has to be a price for retail investors' risk-aversion.  Everyone on the 'safe' side of the boat won't end well.  SHOULDN'T.

In a world of not only near-zero returns on fixed-income but of great risk to asset 'values', bonds will sell off viciously one day and slaughter them - hopefully.

We are being forced to embrace RISK. 

But you don't have to do it on the Fed's or the banks' or the government's terms...the future belongs to the nimble day-trader who manages his OWN portfolio.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:02 | 2853656 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Why do you think eTrade has a baby in its commercials?

 

 

October 1, 2012: Global hedge funds are putting up some of their worst returns in years relative to the S&P 500 as the market for hedging strategies gets more saturated, says Mary Ann Bartels, technical research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“Hedge funds are up 3.04% year-to-date as of September, 2012, compared to 13.97% for the S&P 500,” said Mary Ann Bartels, technical research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Source: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/01/relative-hedge-fund-returns...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:47 | 2853225 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So where the hell did all of the money for Fidelity's assets come from to go into the "bond and money market assets" of $848.9 billion?  Are they managing for the algos now?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:27 | 2853482 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

I don't know about Fidelity but GE (perhaps others are doing the same)

General Electric ignores $100 billion of cash to borrow $7 billion

snip

The offering allows the company to use the cash it brings in for stock buybacks, dividends and acquisitions. While Immelt seeks to pare debt at GE's finance arm, the offering may boost bonds of the parent by 22% to $11 billion next year. "It's a no-brainer ," Jody Lurie, a corporate credit analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said in a telephone interview. 

"It costs nothing to issue, so why would they use cash on hand" to pay off maturing obligations? GE borrows at lower rates than the average for US investment-grade issuers, whose bond yields dropped to an unprecedented 2.85% on Monday, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. That compares with 2.62% for GE, which includes yields on obligations of its finance arm GE Capital. 

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:07 | 2853680 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

This is what fascist corporatism is all about.  Lift your head out of the feedbag and you will see that this is heading directly for "industrial boards" so the stealing can take place without these embarrassing intermediary actions.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:42 | 2853817 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Yes I posted something about that on an earlier post. 

 'Economic patriotism': Corporatism dressed as populism

Revealed – the capitalist network that runs the world

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html

Who Runs the World ? – Network Analysis Reveals ‘Super Entity’ of Global Corporate Control

http://planetsave.com/2011/08/28/who-runs-the-world-network-analysis-reveals-super-entity-of-global-corporate-control/

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:47 | 2853228 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

ETFs baby yea yeah!!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:49 | 2853233 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

At this point I am more interested in what the "retail herd" is buying and what the big money (insiders) are doing.  Is everybody walking away, where are they going?  Mars?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2853246 hannah
hannah's picture

the retail herd is paying the min payment on their credit cards for all the shit they bought in 2006....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:56 | 2853262 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Winnah!

Let's also not forget that those cards are now nearly ALL variable rate, tied to LIBOR... er... I mean the "Prime Rate."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:50 | 2853236 kornholio
kornholio's picture

Bullish!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:51 | 2853238 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

So who or what is behind the market caps in equities, besides Bens Magical Mystery Monies?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2853304 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Retail muppets don't matter anymore. Institutionals need to stay in the game and work in lockstep. If one big boy spooks they all take a flush. My 2 cents anyway. 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:00 | 2853282 petolo
petolo's picture

My shoeshine boy told me to buy AAPL today.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:06 | 2853327 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Wait, they have an app for that now? Cool.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:23 | 2853456 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Hey, I did a good job on your shoes, didn't I?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:02 | 2853293 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

pulling out of equity funds is a terrible way to measure anything, most people I know are buying individual stocks and have come to the realization that fund managers are a complete waste of skin

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:03 | 2853295 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Does this not contradict what ZH reported earlier today?

who is "all in" then?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-03/about-money-sidelines-its-all

 

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:06 | 2853326 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Institutional: banks, primary dealers, prop desks, hedge funds: anyone with access to $1.7 trillion in excess reserves and/or is one degree or less removed from the discount window.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:08 | 2853340 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Didn't Einhorn say the fed put was really under the bond market?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:37 | 2853538 ekm
ekm's picture

We should draw out own conclusions. Einhorn is there to lure his own suckers.

 

This is a pyramid scheme, about to collapse.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:43 | 2853569 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you EKM. It's the "about to" part that I still have trouble reconciling....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:46 | 2853591 ekm
ekm's picture

It's metaphorical, but do you know anything about Pyramid Schemes? Like Maddof one?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:49 | 2853606 ekm
ekm's picture

(Reposting)

 

 

 

Pyramid scheme

Forced buying

 

When newscomers stop coming, the only thing the Pyramid can do is spend its own money until:

- Nothing left to spend

- Somebody else calls 'margin' (remember JPM and MFG?)

S&P at 400 is INEVITABLE

 

There is absolutely only 1 thing that can save 1 or 2 primary dealers from a collapse: APPEARANCE OF A SUCKER.

However the Sucker-in-Chief or otherwise known as Federal Reserve, will they be allowed to buy stocks from the primary dealers?

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:01 | 2853654 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My problem is I think the fed is already in there buying securities now. I have no doubt they are doing it in fact. How they are doing it and how they are hiding it is beyond me. It will eventually be exposed. But if I am right Ben can technically prop this thing up indefinitely.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:04 | 2853672 ekm
ekm's picture

Ok, let's assume the Fed is buying stocks, thus being the sucker-in-chief.

There's nobody else left to buy from the Fed. It would practically be the real end of the Fed.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:11 | 2853704 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You are saying the fed eventually owns everything..I hear you man. I really do. I also know not to talk in absolutes. There still is plenty of seeking alpha ass clowns out there salivating over their next dividend paying stock purchase. Their still are people buying weekly in their 401k's. But I agree with your math, and it's end point. Completely.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:49 | 2853848 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Not necessarily the Fed has lot's of tricks it can pull out of it's sleeve for instance


 HOT: Fed Hides Major Accounting Change

snip (in full at link)

But they are averting asking the Treasury for money in the future by an accounting gimmick that will simply dump the debt off the capital part of the balance sheet, so it won't be reported as a loss, and make it a liability to the Treasury. More from Reuters:

[According to]Raymond Stone, managing director at Stone & McCarthy in Princeton, New Jersey, "An accounting methodology change at the central bank will allow the Fed to incur losses, even substantial losses, without eroding its capital." 

The change essentially allows the Fed to denote losses by the various regional reserve banks that make up the Fed system as a liability to the Treasury rather than a hit to its capital. It would then simply direct future profits from Fed operations toward that liability...

 "Any future losses the Fed may incur will now show up as a negative liability as opposed to a reduction in Fed capital, thereby making a negative capital situation technically impossible," said Brian Smedley, a rates strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and a former New York Fed staffer. 

"The timing of the change is not coincidental, as politicians and market participants alike have expressed concerns since the announcement (of a second round of asset buys) about the possibility of Fed 'insolvency' in a scenario where interest rates rise significantly," Smedley and his colleague Priya Misra wrote in a research note.

Bottom line: We all knew the Fed was going to have to do some kind of monkey business to deal with all the junk securities it purchased, here it is: Negative liabilities. Yes, only at your local Fed.

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:51 | 2855763 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

S&P FUTURES>>>NO DOUBT...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:53 | 2853618 ekm
ekm's picture

Only the Fed can help the primary dealers now by buying stocks from them.

Will the Fed be allowed to do it? That's the question.

 

It would be the practical end of the Fed. The gov will practially own the means of production - marxism.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:55 | 2853978 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Well, isn't that the Goal?

Communism for everyone!

Xcept barry and hillarity.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:09 | 2853348 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

So how long can the Casinos remain open playing against each other's Houses?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:29 | 2853493 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

As long as the casinos keep playing with the "house money" that the fed provides by purchasing all their underperforming assets.  In a poker game, the house takes a rake (read the investment banks / fund managers).  Over a period of time, a few players win, most players lose.  What keeps the game going is the in-flow of new players and new money from "producers" (people who make money doing something other than playing poker).  If new "producers" fail to continue to show up for a game, then the good players sit playing with each other, and often none of them are able to gain much of an advantage.  As a result, the house would end up with all of the money via the rake.  Typically, however, once the easy money has left the table, the good players leave also, as they know that the house is going to end up being the only winner if the game continues. 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:35 | 2853497 ekm
ekm's picture

Pyramid about to collapse.

No more newcomers.

I bet on Morgan Stanley. It's going down.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2853306 Zombie Investor
Zombie Investor's picture

Is there any way to know where the money is going?  Bonds, ETFs, individual stocks, fast food, mattresses?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:08 | 2853337 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The ratio of mutual fund outflows to equity ETF (because there are bond, commodity, FX, levered trading, etc varieties) is 10-15 to 1.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2853309 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

It can not be the other way round: retail must be out of the market(s) and algos making the market, thats the script, supervised by the master himself. At least, as I said time ago: election year, manipulation of the third degree. Nothing easier than that. Put the nail in the coffin on nov 4th. Everyone is happy and the teleprompter aficionado is (already now ) elected. Poor Mitt, give him something to play with.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:05 | 2853318 youngman
youngman's picture

I can see why people are pulling out the money...but where is it going?  And WHO is picking up the slack cause the market just keeps going up and up and up....kind of like the drum bunny...shoot that SOB.....some went to pay bills..some to PM´s...some to bonds....Junk????...I wish I knew....in time we will all know..financial forensics will find out

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:16 | 2853701 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I think the official index ticker you see is about as valid as the official CPI.  Seriously.  It's all an electronic black box and fraud is child's play.  Could this ever be reconciled with hard proof of genuine trades?  Of course not.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:52 | 2853973 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Bernanke has a secret "buy" account at Scot Trade.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:14 | 2853379 max2205
max2205's picture

Ya gotta go with the red trend line to trade that chart....tough one....BTFD BTFD

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:14 | 2853384 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Go Joe Sixpack !!!

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:18 | 2853412 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

I would think that the typical mutual fund investment is derived through a 401k.  Couldn't these outflows be desperate people cashing out of their 401k's in order to make ends meet?  100 billion relative to the universe of funds invested in the US is rather small isn't it?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:19 | 2853419 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Double Post

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:19 | 2853434 max2205
max2205's picture

Despite being told again and again by any-and-every commission-taker and newsletter-vendor that sentiment is terrible, managers will need to high-beta performance-chase, and the 'money-on-the-sidelines' is just around the corner; it appears that reality is different. The Net Long Interest in S&P 500 Futures (the most liquid equity trading vehicle in the world) is now at its highest since December 2008. The last time investors were this 'net long', the S&P 500 fell over 25% in the next two months

 

 Ummm, what week are we in here

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:21 | 2853442 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I personally know people who have finally woken up and are closing out their retirement accounts and buying real assets. Real Estate, metals etc. It's going to pick up speed.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 20:07 | 2853972 Umh
Umh's picture

Buying real things. It's tougher than it sounds to buy real assets that are resistant to aging (food, the freezer is full) and diversified ( I don't want to put all of my wealth in gold). Buying land sounds good, but it doesn't come in small to medium packages( I'm not looking at building lots here). In many areas land is selling for 1998 prices or better, but 100 acres of forest or clear cut for that matter isn't cheap or portable. I bought a new truck with a loan; my investments are doing better than th 2% rate I'm paying. I never thought I'd get a 60 month loan, but I think interest rates will be over 2% sometime in the next few years. Does anyone feel like suggesting real assets for investment directly not through a REIT; I've got those too.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 20:06 | 2854011 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Buying Rental Real Estate is a great idea.  Especially with prices this low and interest rates at all time lows.

This could also  be the reason why so many people are pulling money out of Stocks.  To buy Rental Real Estate with a steady cash flow.

P.S. Banks are not lending so many instead of needing 30% down, investors will have to liquidate many more stocks to pay cash for the good Real Estate deals.
Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:25 | 2853467 CraShit
CraShit's picture

Selling stocks, paying bills.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:46 | 2853589 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Selling stocks to pay increased food and gas prices.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:44 | 2853576 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

My thesis is bullish.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:48 | 2853584 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

So many wre underwater after 2008.  Now they are whole and may even have a profit.  Who would blame them from getting out while the getting is good.

No one trusts this Market any more.

Wall Street Traders are inflating because of QE3 and Retail is taking profits.  Interesting reversal on Wall Street where the Retail Investor is the first one to sell.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:39 | 2854324 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

And who knows what capital gains tax rates will be next year?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:48 | 2853599 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

As long as rebate for order flow continues the decimal pricing will continue or some such utter jibberish the NYSE wants you to swallow.

Public markets should not be "for profit".  They should act like the FAA in keeping things half-ass safe.  

 

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 20:39 | 2854121 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

That's a new concept for me! I can't say I don't like it. +1

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:53 | 2853624 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Bernanke is losing against the Boomers.  They are taking Money out of the Market to live on because of zero interest on savings.  They are also going for the safest of the safe.

Under their Mattress, paying of Mortgages, Credit Card debts and car loans.  Why not?  It you are paying over 2% interest on any of your loans and getting 0% in your Bank account why not pay them off and live debt free?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:58 | 2853641 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Also have to consider that many People are out of a Job or under employed which will reduce or eliminate any contributions to their 401K or retirement.

I know People that liquidated their entire Retirement account just to survive.  Pay their Mortgage and buy Food and Gas.

With no one putting any Money away for Retirement or in their 401K who is going to feed the Wall Street Beast?  I do not care how much Bernanke prints, without new Money the Market is going no where.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:03 | 2853663 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Welcome to the Holograph.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:06 | 2853675 saycheeeese
saycheeeese's picture

well... this is the transmission mechanism....    putting money in the retail investors so they feel wealtier and spend  hahahahah   whos is smart here ?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:30 | 2853778 backhandtopspin...
backhandtopspinslicer's picture

Why pull out early when master obama is giving you free contraceptives in the form of QE forever and ever amen

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:47 | 2853840 woggie
woggie's picture

the dogs don't like the candy anymore.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:22 | 2853914 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

Baby steps, bitches. Mandatory IRAs. Full of ETFs. The New Social Security.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:43 | 2853953 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And all that's left are a bunch of algos/bots playing amongst themselves.

 

What a fargin gong show.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:48 | 2853965 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yeah, so who's left?

I pulled all but some oil and went FIZZ!

Achmed was manning the twin-50s when the truck came in today.

And, thanks to a company switch, I get ALL my 401kilo. It's going FIZZ!

....and some farmland.

My next stop is Vienna, time for some Phil Harmonics.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 20:57 | 2854186 Marc45
Marc45's picture

And look at the market lately, its no wonder why retail is called the "dumb money". I thought I was brilliant when in early August 2008 I moved all my 401k into cash. Brilliant except I would have been better off leaving it in...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 13:33 | 2856339 pingpongthesecond
pingpongthesecond's picture

Apparently nothing has changed, this usedto be a bullish indicator right?

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