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Is Gold In A Bubble?
With precious metals once again on the rise, the questions begin as to whether or not gold is in a bubble. While these questions never seem to occur among the cogniscenti when equity prices race ahead non-stop for months on end with no volatility, Brent Johnson (of Santiago Capital) offers up five 'facts' that help to explain why gold at $1800 is far from a bubble - especially as central banks shift from 'measured' responses to open-ended debauchment.
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Gold will be the last bubble.
Silver is my drug of choice.
If gold was a bubble, there wouldn't be "we buy gold" advertisements everywhere.
"Is Gold in a Bubble?"
Unequivocally, YES. If you are tempted to buy gold at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think. Ask yourself: what is gold useful for? Is a piece of shiny metal really worth this much money? How can gold just keep going up and up? If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. BE RATIONAL; DON’T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA.
Yes, my Gold is in a Bubble wrap.
Gold is not in a bubble.
Gold is the single best wealth preserver in town.
Bearings of good value are pretty close...
pretty sure LULZ just meant he bubble wrapped his gold
Actually, gold most definitely is in a bubble.
Gold is in the middle of the biggest bubble on earth - the bond bubble.
Which is itself a bubble composing an even larger bubble: the Dollar bubble. A bubble inside a bubble. BUBBLECEPTION.
No gold is not in a bubble. But when the crash comes, it is likely that gold will temporarily dip, so keeping some of your wealth in fiat for that last stocking up may be advisable.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/03/12/kyle-bass-says-gold-is-going-a-...
Actually what Kyle Bass said is that a gold standard is a bad idea if you think about "it rationally". But that's completely irrational. Rationally a gold standard is ideal because it doesn't grow too fast but it does grow, it does maintain purchasing power vs goods of importance like food & energy and land, and it does remain money even if central banks go bonkers or new plastic bills melt in the sun or old paper bills get thrown in the washing machine, shredder or burned in a fire.
Good luck finding any takers of your fiat for gold transaction when the crash comes.
Yes.
Bad currency drives good money into hiding.
Sell your gold when this happens;
The global stock markets become honest, trustworthy, palces of true business.
The big banks are broken up into small ones.
The global financial sector once more serves the economy, instead of the other way around.
Governments drastically downsize and start realistically representing the poeples wishes.
There comes into being a solid, trustful global exchange vehicle for all business.
Large multi-national corporations are broken up into small independent entities.
Miletarists and warmongers are laid hands upon and rendered useless.
Will this occur? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH! HOLD YOUR GOLD.
Central bankers are in a bubble.
Like Dr. Benway said, when the crash comes gold will temporarily dip too (look back at the charts end of '08), that's when you make your switch from fiat to gold.
The 2008 pattern will not repeat like that. The 2006 pattern is repeating now in a proportional manner.
2011 dec 27 gold 01 | goldpricemodel | 277 week ROC visual confirmation
be wary. Rolling forward this trend looks like this: 2012 09 18 277week roc 01 | goldpricemodel
and SPY isn't so hot 2012 09 13 spy crash soon | goldpricemodel
Please DIAF, kthanxbai!
Your worst troll effort to date.
It's all about timing. Being right but being early (or late) is still wrong. In that context, the plan to pop the bubble has been set: NASA to mine asteroids. Of course no one will be able to audit the payloads but gold will be found and immediately warehoused at Ft. Knox (unless it really works and then JPM and HBC will take delivery).
http://www.mining.com/nasa-takes-asteroid-mining-serious-funds-viability...
"Is Gold in a Bubble?"
Unequivocally, NO. If you aren't tempted to sell your chits of paper for something tangible you must be thinking that the chits will always be worth something. What are chits of paper really useful for? Is a dull piece of paper/linen really worth anything? How can a chit of paper just keep going up and up? If it's too good to be true, it probably is. BE RATIONAL; DON'T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA. OWN SOMETHING REAL RATHER THAT A CONFIDENCE SCHEME.
LOL!, I fucking hate chit's of paper. When a taxi driver tells you to buy gold, sell gold.
Thanks to the internet I don't think it will work that way this time. When the taxi driver says to buy gold & silver, and the shoe shine boy is buying silver, this time it will because everyone is being told by US to dump dollars because they aren't a viable currency. NOT because you will profit massively by selling gold and silver "at the right time".
I have now run into SEVERAL people who are total strangers admitting they buy gold and silver. NOT for re-sale. For barter & retirement. Now that's NOT a mania. Having anyone try to save anything for retirement or for prepping is a very sliver of a minority in the population even when IGNORING precious metals.
MDB...
Uncle Ben left a little of his white stuff on your chin... You might want to wipe that off.
There is no mania, just people choosing to save and store the benefits of their hard work in sound money. That must be some frightening shit for banksters and paperbugz.
This guy's bullshit is quickly losing it's comedic value. His trolling seems to be the bubble and it seems to have peaked.
It's the same problem that's affected Saturday Night Live for so long, single dimension characters go stale quickly.
One can only tell the same joke so many times.
Saturday Night Live ceased being funny when it became politically one sided years ago does anyone except die hard leftist's really even watch that show anymore?
Who the fuck cares if they watch it?
OK, Warren... We've just entered the mania phase of the bull market. Still has a loooong way to go...
Oh MDB....
"Is the US Dollar in a bubble?"
Unequivocally, YES. If you are tempted to buy US dollars at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think. Ask yourself: what is rectangular pieces of green paper useful for? Is a peice of processed pulp really worth this much labor? How can the US Dollar just keep staying at this value when they are printing so much of it? If it's too good to be true, it probably is. BE RATIONAL; DON'T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA
Fixed it for you
Did you watch the video?
"BE RATIONAL; DONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA" Tremendous, talk about a useful idiot.
yeah pumptard....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv5BYEOQYLo
The question you should ask yourself: what is paper currency useful for? Is a piece of paper with green ink on it really worth anything?
Its backed by the full faith and credit of the USG.
No, it is on a mission. A forty five year mission. 38 years to go. It is to double in value every three years. To grow by 1.913% each month.
It's mission objective is to free mankind from slavery.
Slavery is barbaric. Please help gold whenever you can.
Free gold, free yourselves!
(I have definitely said too much this time!)
I have to stop and ask myself, is this little piece of paper with green ink on it worth $100 when they are printing them faster than I can wipe my ass with them?
"Is the Treasury in a Bubble?"
Unequivocally, YES. If you are tempted to buy treasuries at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think. Ask yourself, what is a treasury useful for? Is a piece of toilet paper really worth anything? How can treasuries just keep going up and up? If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.
BE RATIONAL; DON’T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA.
FIFY
All joking aside millionDollarBonehead, I just want to know how in the FUCK did you get 10 GREEN weenies? You must have 10 relatives that have online access, God forbid. I think your mother is calling.........
gold is an alpha particle deflector - radiation shielding - and as it happens many of us indirectly rely on satellite communications that depend on this shielding. Some are direct but many of us merely benefit from the financial go-ahead of the companies & militaries that use such communications, not also accounting for "benefit" of entertainment/fraud/propaganda fed by satellite consumer TV.
Rationally gold can stop going up when paper curency is NOT issued at these rates (or higher) and stops entirely, and when real interest rates are over 10%. So long as treasury yields are near 0 nominal and are negative vs real inflation for food prices, gold must go up and will go up, no less than 2500/oz. That's rational. Not mania. Mania is the 100% coverage of gold vs currency or gold vs debt. That's 12,000/oz territory & not sustainable without even more collapse stages carved in stone.
Gold is also useful for dentistry and electronic circuits.
No...Gold will not enter a bubble phase...it will seek its true value and remain there.
Alternatively, paper will reach it's true value which zero and stay there.
I don't know about a bubble, but the S&P is slowly making fibonacci retracement from September 25, 2012. That is another "golden" ratio to finger out.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/how-12th-century-mathematician-just-doomed-bernankes-wealth-effect
Let one be a number, yet another unity
And the one be to the other as their union be to the one simultaneously
Still equal to this union you will find
A magic square of the most irrational kind
Whose inverted side is but the one diminished by the other
What is that one sacred number my learned brother?
LoneStarHog, Gold potentially could enter a bubble phase, especially if people begin to panic.
I don't normally minus anyone's comment but yours is so dangerous that I felt I had to. Gold is no where near a bubble now but if panic sets in it could do.
There is a difference between a bubble and a spike, the latter being nowhere near the highs of an irrational bubble. So, you have to ask yourself: If there is a gold spike due to panic, WHAT would get in payment for your gold? Will someone be crazy enough to offer you another hard asset, like land? "Dangerous"? Think about it.
If it is a bubble there are lots of fish at the bottom of lakes enjoying a bubble bath.
Right, nothing wrong with bubbles. Another glass of champagne please!
Spoken like Soros, and I totally agree. I guess before it pops, we all have to diversify into the non bubblicious item of 50% ammo/50% canned goods. Not yet though.
Yes!!!!!!!!!!! Now watch the negative ratings pile up.
Fuck you Bernanke!
It's not a question of how high Gold is or will go. The only question that counts is how low will your favorite fiat go.
We ain't seen nuttin' yet.
It's not just falling fiat. The real value of gold should go up as well. As the value of a stream of future fiat payments falls to zero, the real prices of things currently purchased with credit should collapse to near their cash price.
And the reprice of gold will then occur. Of course that will be after the hellstorm.
Only then will the market clear.
<How much is that doggy in the window? I'll gladly bring you a wheel barrel of cash on Wednesday if you'll give me the doggy today.>
Feelin' peckish, are ya? :>D
@ Cognitive
+ 1, yes: "We ain't seen nuttin' yet."
Fuck You Bernanke!
USD is in a bubble right now.
And the bubble consists of 3" of solid titanium...
No, but CRApple might be.
DavidC
Gold and silver are money.
Paper is for toilets and wallpaper.
Gold BITCHEZ?
.
Gold: The Ultimate Un-Bubble
All the gold ever mined in human history is about $9 trillion. US debt is $16 trillion and unfunded liabilities are $121 trillion (Kotlikoff says $222 trillion) and rising at $8.3715 trillion a year (Kotlikoff says $12 trillion a year). All the gold bullion available now is $4 trillion. So every six months, US debt and unfunded liabilities can buy all the gold bullion in the world.
The value of land in Beijing alone is estimated to be $20 trillion. Enough to buy all the gold bullion in the world 5 times over.
So - No, gold is not a bubble. Debts and unfunded liabilities and real estate prices are very large bubbles.
I know people on this website sleep with their gold or silver....but trading it seems that oil is rolling over and gold should follow.........
It wouldn't be unusual for gold to decline in Oct, especially after such a nice advance. Sept and Nov are typically strong months with Oct typically down. Any correction should present a great buying opportunity before the next move up.
Only if you mistakenly believe that gold is a commodity which it is not. Gold is MONEY, commodities are consumed.
Fiat currencies are, and that is what the hyperbolic curve shows.
but but but but it takes only $5 to get it out of the ground!
Holy shit! Let me put my shoes on. I'll be over in a second! You wouldn't happen to know were I could dig up some $5/barrel oil?
No, there will be a smack down before 2:30. Wait, wut?
best feeling ever was to hold some metal in my hand , bought from paper i made shorting JpM this summer , l-o-l
keynes , bitchez
me like shiny metals - precious.
....an give us our daily " Gold is/is not i a bubble thread so we can give.....
Gold is not in a bubble. It is in a primary bull market and such primary bull markets have long legs both in time and price gains. Under Dow Theory primary bull markets tend to witness price gains exceeding 40%. The median duration of a primary bull markets is 2.5 years. So we are not talking of a "tradable" rally but of a powerful move.
Hence, a nagging issue for latecomers wanting to participate in gold's bull market is whether now it is too late to jump aboard. Some recent timid declines haven't corrected much and gold remains quite overbought.
Here are some ideas for latecomers to "time" the entry in gold and to participate from the bullish outlook of the article:
http://bit.ly/RSyFI6
GLD is just like FRN: Paper..
I wish gold was in a bubble. That way it would have floated on top of the water after my unfortunate boating accident.
When gold shops and LCS' have customers lined up for blocks outside their doors...like Yarowat Road, when gold crested $1000/oz....then, the bubble talk can commence.
Americana is seriously retarded...they will show up later than most. Perhaps 3000+ per oz will bring them to the streets to stand in line. They much rather stand in line for the new i-phone
They won't line up to buy until $30,000 an ounce and then it will be too late.
cognoscenti (sp.)
Gold price hasn't kept up with the increase in cost of mining, what bubble is that?
A Gold Bug at Treasury in a Romney Administration?
snip
I have finally found something to like about a potential Romney Administration. WaPo is throwing the name of Robert Zoellick as the top name for Treasury in an RA. Zoellick has always said positive things about gold and hinted to me last November that he considered gold a good investment.
On top of that neocons hate him! This summer Jennifer Rubin wrote:
oil hasn't budged in four years and is less than 6 years ago. check out the chart for OIL.
food is less than it was 5 years ago. check out the chart for RJA
so why does oil cost more? because the closing of several refineries and price gouging.
so why does food cost more? well for me it doesn't. in fact i pay way less now than i did several years ago.
so why is gold rising while food and energy aren't. because of huge speculation in GLD. GLD has become the 4th largest holder of gold (maybe rehypothecated but that's another story) in the last 10 years.
hundreds of trillions were lost in the derivative crash of '08/'09. over $30 trillion was lost in the u.s. real estate market alone. yes, the Fed pulled approximately $16 trillion out of its butt in the last four years but that ain't enough to refill the hole. qe3 is not gonna create hyperinflation. i see hyperhysteria in the gold bug world but who is really profiting? do you really think people are going to use gold bars for transactions? especially now that we see that they can be forged?
the fed has extended low rates for several years because it knows it doesn't have to worry about inflation. if and when inflation comes, the fed can raise interests rates. in short, we're in a deflationary market just like japan has been for the last 23 years.
Where do you live? I live in the NY Tri-State are and both Gas and Food is way higher than it's ever been. You work for Bennie Boy?
You are an egregious fucking liar and you know it.
Go to Hell, you ridiculous lying bastard.
Sure gold's in a bubble, Bernanke is blowing them out of his ass.
This guy seems to think so: http://www.papermoneyshield.com/2012/10/gold-bubble-has-reached-equivale...
In my opinion it's not a bubble, we will see multiple of today's prices within the next few years IMO, then it will be a bubble. Perhaps the bubble to end all bubbles.
Gold and Silver will continue to rise, probably exponentially. But they won't drop. They will find their true value and stay there.
And anyone holding physical will trade it for something of equal value, not paper.
“With respect to personal finances, in virtually every national currency devaluation and major political upheaval in the past, gold has represented sanctuary for the affected people. Gold has not just preserved wealth, but personal freedom as well. While governments can devalue fiat currencies, they cannot, by edict, devalue gold. Yes, they can try to manipulate its price, but unless all governments join in the collusion, ultimately the price will return to market. The market for gold is global, and demand exists in all nations and among all peoples. Should the government attempt to confiscate gold, it will be an outright admission that the financial system is collapsing, and the people will know better than to hand over to a corrupt government their only means of survival. The most important point is this: devalued currencies never rise again. Once they are destroyed, they are gone forever, and those whose wealth had once been denominated in them are wiped out. As you have no doubt heard before, not one fiat currency has survived over time, and that is an indisputable fact. More significantly, no fiat currency has ever suffered the abuse that has been inflicted upon the United States dollar, meaning that it is at extreme risk. Gold has been money for 5,000 years. It has not merely survived, it has prevailed over each and every fiat currency collapse throughout history.
Given this, the most important financial question a person can ask him- or herself today is: How is my wealth denominated at this time? And given its denomination, is my wealth likely to be safe in current and evolving circumstances?”
-Stewart Dougherty - Specialist in inferential analysis, the practice of identifying historic and contemporary patterns and then extrapolating their likely effects upon the future. Dougherty was educated at Tufts University (B.A., magna cum laude), and Harvard Business School (M.B.A. and academic Fellow) – March 2010 -
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-america-s-impending-mast...
http://www.bearishnews.com/post/3044
Interesting comments. The one I like most is the US Dollar is in a bubble.
So let's play. The US Dollar drops like a stone. So what happens? Well the Euro and the Yen take off like a rocket - collectively the Euro plus Yen account for 72% of the US Dollar weighting.
What else happens? Well the markets and commodities priced in US Dollars take off too. So that would add fuel to revenue and earnings of the SP500.
So I guess we'll find out soon about revenue and earnings.
Anything is possible, but what is probable is that Gold will fall.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-october-03-2012/
put into perspective, this is 10% off the highs.
Big deal, it was 30 yrs ago, what gold cannot go higher without all the pundits going BUBBLE, its a top, etc.
Stocks go to new highs all the time, commodities as well so if their is a pullback, big deal its part of the fun. Look at oil from 25 as a floor to 80 bucks minimum or they lose money- new floors are created all the time.
RiverRoad, I don't disagree, but if the value of money drops harder than gold or silver, you won't be able to buy as much, because it's the ounces that matter not the cost. And will there be any physical you can get your hands on, because the drop in price will mostly be due to paper gold and silver sellers liquidating a) because it's the only asset they have left that isn't underwater and b) to try to get physical.
I'd stay ahead of the curve and buy physical now.