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Is Gold In A Bubble?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With precious metals once again on the rise, the questions begin as to whether or not gold is in a bubble. While these questions never seem to occur among the cogniscenti when equity prices race ahead non-stop for months on end with no volatility, Brent Johnson (of Santiago Capital) offers up five 'facts' that help to explain why gold at $1800 is far from a bubble - especially as central banks shift from 'measured' responses to open-ended debauchment.

 

 

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Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:29 | 2852621 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Gold will be the last bubble.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:31 | 2852625 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Silver is my drug of choice.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:42 | 2852690 redpill
redpill's picture

If gold was a bubble, there wouldn't be "we buy gold" advertisements everywhere.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:48 | 2852718 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

"Is Gold in a Bubble?"

Unequivocally, YES. If you are tempted to buy gold at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think. Ask yourself: what is gold useful for? Is a piece of shiny metal really worth this much money? How can gold just keep going up and up? If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. BE RATIONAL; DON’T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA. 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:53 | 2852736 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Yes, my Gold is in a Bubble wrap.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:02 | 2852762 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold is not in a bubble.

Gold is the single best wealth preserver in town.

 

Bearings of good value are pretty close...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:07 | 2852783 Baron Robber
Baron Robber's picture

pretty sure LULZ just meant he bubble wrapped his gold

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:27 | 2852871 malikai
malikai's picture

Actually, gold most definitely is in a bubble.

Gold is in the middle of the biggest bubble on earth - the bond bubble.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:31 | 2853144 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Which is itself a bubble composing an even larger bubble: the Dollar bubble. A bubble inside a bubble. BUBBLECEPTION.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:57 | 2853272 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

No gold is not in a bubble. But when the crash comes, it is likely that gold will temporarily dip, so keeping some of your wealth in fiat for that last stocking up may be advisable.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:56 | 2907358 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Actually what Kyle Bass said is that a gold standard is a bad idea if you think about "it rationally". But that's completely irrational. Rationally a gold standard is ideal because it doesn't grow too fast but it does grow, it does maintain purchasing power vs goods of importance like food & energy and land, and it does remain money even if central banks go bonkers or new plastic bills melt in the sun or old paper bills get thrown in the washing machine, shredder or burned in a fire.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:25 | 2853476 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Good luck finding any takers of your fiat for gold transaction when the crash comes.  

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:55 | 2853868 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Yes.

Bad currency drives good money into hiding.

Sell your gold when this happens;

The global stock markets become honest, trustworthy, palces of true business.

The big banks are broken up into small ones.

The global financial sector once more serves the economy, instead of the other way around.

Governments drastically downsize and start realistically representing the poeples wishes.

There comes into being a solid, trustful global exchange vehicle for all business.

Large multi-national corporations are broken up into small independent entities.

Miletarists and warmongers are laid hands upon and rendered useless.

Will this occur? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH! HOLD YOUR GOLD.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:10 | 2854226 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Central bankers are in a bubble.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:09 | 2854220 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Like Dr. Benway said, when the crash comes gold will temporarily dip too (look back at the charts  end of '08), that's when you make your switch from fiat to gold.

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:48 | 2907350 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The 2008 pattern will not repeat like that. The 2006 pattern is repeating now in a proportional manner.

2011 dec 27 gold 01 | goldpricemodel | 277 week ROC visual confirmation

be wary. Rolling forward this trend looks like this: 2012 09 18 277week roc 01 | goldpricemodel

and SPY isn't so hot 2012 09 13 spy crash soon | goldpricemodel

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:53 | 2852737 fuu
fuu's picture

Please DIAF, kthanxbai!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:53 | 2852738 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Your worst troll effort to date.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:19 | 2853738 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

It's all about timing. Being right but being early (or late) is still wrong. In that context, the plan to pop the bubble has been set: NASA to mine asteroids. Of course no one will be able to audit the payloads but gold will be found and immediately warehoused at Ft. Knox (unless it really works and then JPM and HBC will take delivery).

http://www.mining.com/nasa-takes-asteroid-mining-serious-funds-viability...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:58 | 2852749 ATM
ATM's picture

"Is Gold in a Bubble?"

Unequivocally, NO. If you aren't tempted to sell your chits of paper for something tangible you must be thinking that the chits will always be worth something. What are chits of paper really useful for? Is a dull piece of paper/linen really worth anything? How can a chit of paper just keep going up and up? If it's too good to be true, it probably is. BE RATIONAL; DON'T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA. OWN SOMETHING REAL RATHER THAT A CONFIDENCE SCHEME.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:37 | 2852869 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

LOL!, I fucking hate chit's of paper. When a taxi driver tells you to buy gold, sell gold.

 

 

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:43 | 2907347 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Thanks to the internet I don't think it will work that way this time. When the taxi driver says to buy gold & silver, and the shoe shine boy is buying silver, this time it will because everyone is being told by US to dump dollars because they aren't a viable currency. NOT because you will profit massively by selling gold and silver "at the right time".

I have now run into SEVERAL people who are total strangers admitting they buy gold and silver. NOT for re-sale. For barter & retirement. Now that's NOT a mania. Having anyone try to save anything for retirement or for prepping is a very sliver of a minority in the population even when IGNORING precious metals.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:59 | 2852751 Temporis
Temporis's picture

MDB...

Uncle Ben left a little of his white stuff on your chin... You might want to wipe that off.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:02 | 2852756 oddjob
oddjob's picture

There is no mania, just people choosing to save and store the benefits of their hard work in sound money. That must be some frightening shit for banksters and paperbugz.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:12 | 2852801 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

This guy's bullshit is quickly losing it's comedic value. His trolling seems to be the bubble and it seems to have peaked.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:21 | 2852850 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's the same problem that's affected Saturday Night Live for so long, single dimension characters go stale quickly.

One can only tell the same joke so many times.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:54 | 2852966 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Saturday Night Live ceased being funny when it became politically one sided years ago does anyone except die hard leftist's really even watch that show anymore?

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:45 | 2853957 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Who the fuck cares if they watch it?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:37 | 2852908 edifice
edifice's picture

OK, Warren... We've just entered the mania phase of the bull market. Still has a loooong way to go...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:02 | 2852991 Sneeze
Sneeze's picture

Oh MDB....

"Is the US Dollar in a bubble?"

Unequivocally, YES.  If you are tempted to buy US dollars at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think.  Ask yourself: what is rectangular pieces of green paper useful for? Is a peice of processed pulp really worth this much labor?  How can the US Dollar just keep staying at this value when they are printing so much of it? If it's too good to be true, it probably is.  BE RATIONAL; DON'T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA

Fixed it for you

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:06 | 2853008 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Did you watch the video?

"BE RATIONAL; DONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA" Tremendous, talk about a useful idiot.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:06 | 2853010 kliguy38
Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:17 | 2853074 GoldenDragon
GoldenDragon's picture

The question you should ask yourself:  what is paper currency useful for?  Is a piece of paper with green ink on it really worth anything?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:14 | 2853721 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Its backed by the full faith and credit of the USG.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:01 | 2853289 Darth Rayne
Darth Rayne's picture

No, it is on a mission. A forty five year mission. 38 years to go. It is to double in value every three years. To grow by 1.913% each month.

 

It's mission objective is to free mankind from slavery.

 

Slavery is barbaric. Please help gold whenever you can.

 

Free gold, free yourselves!

 

(I have definitely said too much this time!)

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:44 | 2853573 FlyingPurpleShe...
FlyingPurpleSheepleEater's picture

I have to stop and ask myself, is this little piece of paper with green ink on it worth $100 when they are printing them faster than I can wipe my ass with them?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:55 | 2853977 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

"Is the Treasury in a Bubble?"

Unequivocally, YES. If you are tempted to buy treasuries at these prices, you absolutely have to stop and think. Ask yourself, what is a treasury useful for? Is a piece of toilet paper really worth anything? How can treasuries just keep going up and up? If it’s too good to be true, it probably is.

BE RATIONAL; DON’T GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MANIA.

FIFY

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 22:02 | 2854411 sgorem
sgorem's picture

All joking aside millionDollarBonehead, I just want to know how in the FUCK did you get 10 GREEN weenies? You must have 10 relatives that have online access, God forbid. I think your mother is calling.........

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:39 | 2907342 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

gold is an alpha particle deflector - radiation shielding - and as it happens many of us indirectly rely on satellite communications that depend on this shielding. Some are direct but many of us merely benefit from the financial go-ahead of the companies & militaries that use such communications, not also accounting for "benefit" of entertainment/fraud/propaganda fed by satellite consumer TV.

Rationally gold can stop going up when paper curency is NOT issued at these rates (or higher) and stops entirely, and when real interest rates are over 10%. So long as treasury yields are near 0 nominal and are negative vs real inflation for food prices, gold must go up and will go up, no less than 2500/oz. That's rational. Not mania. Mania is the 100% coverage of gold vs currency or gold vs debt. That's 12,000/oz territory & not sustainable without even more collapse stages carved in stone.

Gold is also useful for dentistry and electronic circuits.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:31 | 2852646 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

No...Gold will not enter a bubble phase...it will seek its true value and remain there.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:38 | 2852677 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Alternatively, paper will reach it's true value which zero and stay there.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:43 | 2852695 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I don't know about a bubble, but the S&P is slowly making  fibonacci retracement from September 25, 2012. That is another "golden" ratio to finger out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/how-12th-century-mathematician-just-doomed-bernankes-wealth-effect

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:03 | 2853302 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Let one be a number, yet another unity

And the one be to the other as their union be to the one simultaneously

Still equal to this union you will find

A magic square of the most irrational kind

Whose inverted side is but the one diminished by the other

What is that one sacred number my learned brother?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:48 | 2852705 gojam
gojam's picture

LoneStarHog, Gold potentially could enter a bubble phase, especially if people begin to panic.

I don't normally minus anyone's comment but yours is so dangerous that I felt I had to. Gold is no where near a bubble now but if panic sets in it could do.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:45 | 2852934 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

There is a difference between a bubble and a spike, the latter being nowhere near the highs of an irrational bubble.  So, you have to ask yourself:  If there is a gold spike due to panic, WHAT would get in payment for your gold? Will someone be crazy enough to offer you another hard asset, like land? "Dangerous"? Think about it.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:39 | 2852675 Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

If it is a bubble there are lots of fish at the bottom of lakes enjoying a bubble bath.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 02:13 | 2854955 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Right, nothing wrong with bubbles. Another glass of champagne please!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:34 | 2852892 killallthefiat
killallthefiat's picture

Spoken like Soros, and I totally agree.  I guess before it pops, we all have to diversify into the non bubblicious item of 50% ammo/50% canned goods.  Not yet though.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:30 | 2852623 fireangelmaverick
fireangelmaverick's picture

Yes!!!!!!!!!!! Now watch the negative ratings pile up.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:30 | 2852626 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Fuck you Bernanke!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:31 | 2852637 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's not a question of how high Gold is or will go. The only question that counts is how low will your favorite fiat go.

We ain't seen nuttin' yet.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:45 | 2852704 Cugel
Cugel's picture

It's not just falling fiat. The real value of gold should go up as well. As the value of a stream of future fiat payments falls to zero, the real prices of things currently purchased with credit should collapse to near their cash price.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:00 | 2852757 ATM
ATM's picture

And the reprice of gold will then occur. Of course that will be after the hellstorm.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:20 | 2852848 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Only then will the market clear.

<How much is that doggy in the window? I'll gladly bring you a wheel barrel of cash on Wednesday if you'll give me the doggy today.>

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:38 | 2854709 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Feelin' peckish, are ya? :>D

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:05 | 2852778 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Cognitive

+ 1, yes: "We ain't seen nuttin' yet."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2852648 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Fuck You Bernanke!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2852649 Haager
Haager's picture

USD is in a bubble right now. 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2852663 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

And the bubble consists of 3" of solid titanium...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:32 | 2852651 DavidC
DavidC's picture

No, but CRApple might be.

DavidC

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:33 | 2852655 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Gold and silver are money.

Paper is for toilets and wallpaper.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2852660 4Y_LURKER
4Y_LURKER's picture

Gold BITCHEZ?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:50 | 2852724 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:54 | 2852662 AT
Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:30 | 2852664 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

All the gold ever mined in human history is about $9 trillion.  US debt is $16 trillion and unfunded liabilities are $121 trillion (Kotlikoff  says $222 trillion) and rising at $8.3715 trillion a year (Kotlikoff  says $12 trillion a year).  All the gold bullion available now is $4 trillion.  So every six months, US debt and unfunded liabilities can buy all the gold bullion in the world.

The value of land in Beijing alone is estimated to be $20 trillion.  Enough to buy all the gold bullion in the world 5 times over.

So - No, gold is not a bubble.  Debts and unfunded liabilities and real estate prices are very large bubbles.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:35 | 2852667 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I know  people on this website sleep with their gold  or silver....but   trading    it seems that oil is rolling over and gold should follow.........

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:41 | 2852687 D-Man
D-Man's picture

It wouldn't be unusual for gold to decline in Oct, especially after such a nice advance. Sept and Nov are typically strong months with Oct typically down. Any correction should present a great buying opportunity before the next move up.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:38 | 2852912 ATM
ATM's picture

Only if you mistakenly believe that gold is a commodity which it is not. Gold is MONEY, commodities are consumed.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:36 | 2852669 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Fiat currencies are, and that is what the hyperbolic curve shows.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:37 | 2852673 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

but but but but it takes only $5 to get it out of the ground!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:47 | 2852713 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Holy shit! Let me put my shoes on. I'll be over in a second! You wouldn't happen to know were I could dig up some $5/barrel oil?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:51 | 2852691 fuu
fuu's picture

No, there will be a smack down before 2:30. Wait, wut?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 14:55 | 2852745 brucyy
brucyy's picture

best feeling ever was to hold some metal in my hand ,  bought from paper i made shorting JpM this summer , l-o-l

keynes , bitchez

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:05 | 2852780 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

me like shiny metals - precious.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:12 | 2852803 Manipulism
Manipulism's picture

....an give us our daily " Gold is/is not i a bubble thread so we can give.....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:16 | 2852818 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Gold is not in a bubble. It is in a primary bull market and such primary bull markets have long legs both in time and price gains. Under Dow Theory primary bull markets tend to witness price gains exceeding 40%. The median duration of a primary bull markets is 2.5 years. So we are not talking of a "tradable" rally but of a powerful move.

 Hence, a nagging issue for latecomers wanting to participate in gold's bull market is whether now it is too late to jump aboard. Some recent timid declines haven't corrected much and gold remains quite overbought.

Here are some ideas for latecomers to "time" the entry in gold and to participate from the bullish outlook of the article:

http://bit.ly/RSyFI6

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:09 | 2853343 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

GLD is just like FRN: Paper..

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:18 | 2852832 Major Miner
Major Miner's picture

I wish gold was in a bubble.  That way it would have floated on top of the water after my unfortunate boating accident.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:18 | 2852833 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

When gold shops and LCS' have customers lined up for blocks outside their doors...like Yarowat Road, when gold crested $1000/oz....then, the bubble talk can commence.

Americana is seriously retarded...they will show up later than most. Perhaps 3000+ per oz will bring them to the streets to stand in line. They much rather stand in line for the new i-phone

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:41 | 2852926 ATM
ATM's picture

They won't line up to buy until $30,000 an ounce and then it will be too late.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:32 | 2852888 Qualitative Tig...
Qualitative Tightening's picture

cognoscenti (sp.)

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:36 | 2852904 katchum
katchum's picture

Gold price hasn't kept up with the increase in cost of mining, what bubble is that?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 15:54 | 2852968 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

A Gold Bug at Treasury in a Romney Administration?

snip

I have finally found something to like about a potential Romney Administration. WaPo is throwing the name of Robert Zoellick as the top name for Treasury in an RA. Zoellick has always said positive things about gold and hinted to me last November that he considered gold a good investment.

On top of that neocons hate him! This summer Jennifer Rubin wrote:

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:20 | 2853085 ojaimalibu2012
ojaimalibu2012's picture

oil hasn't budged in four years and is less than 6 years ago. check out the chart for OIL.
food is less than it was 5 years ago. check out the chart for RJA


so why does oil cost more?  because the closing of several refineries and price gouging.

so why does food cost more?  well for me it doesn't.  in fact i pay way less now than i did several years ago.

so why is gold rising while food and energy aren't.  because of huge speculation in GLD.  GLD has become the 4th largest holder of gold (maybe rehypothecated but that's another story) in the last 10 years.

hundreds of trillions were lost in the derivative crash of '08/'09.  over $30 trillion was lost in the u.s. real estate market alone.  yes, the Fed pulled approximately $16 trillion out of its butt in the last four years but that ain't enough to refill the hole.  qe3 is not gonna create hyperinflation.  i see hyperhysteria in the gold bug world but who is really profiting?  do you really think people are going to use gold bars for transactions?  especially now that we see that they can be forged?

the fed has extended low rates for several years because it knows it doesn't have to worry about inflation.  if and when inflation comes, the fed can raise interests rates.  in short, we're in a deflationary market just like japan has been for the last 23 years.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:14 | 2853385 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Where do you live?  I live in the NY Tri-State are and both Gas and Food is way higher than it's ever been.  You work for Bennie Boy?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:07 | 2853678 akak
akak's picture

 

so why does food cost more?  well for me it doesn't.  in fact i pay way less now than i did several years ago.

You are an egregious fucking liar and you know it.

Go to Hell, you ridiculous lying bastard.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:08 | 2853336 No Euros please...
No Euros please we&#039;re British's picture

Sure gold's in a bubble, Bernanke is blowing them out of his ass.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:43 | 2853566 bullionbaron
bullionbaron's picture

In my opinion it's not a bubble, we will see multiple of today's prices within the next few years IMO, then it will be a bubble. Perhaps the bubble to end all bubbles.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:13 | 2853716 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Gold and Silver will continue to rise, probably exponentially. But they won't drop. They will find their true value and stay there.

And anyone holding physical will trade it for something of equal value, not paper.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:52 | 2853856 graspAU
graspAU's picture

“With respect to personal finances, in virtually every national currency devaluation and major political upheaval in the past, gold has represented sanctuary for the affected people. Gold has not just preserved wealth, but personal freedom as well. While governments can devalue fiat currencies, they cannot, by edict, devalue gold. Yes, they can try to manipulate its price, but unless all governments join in the collusion, ultimately the price will return to market. The market for gold is global, and demand exists in all nations and among all peoples. Should the government attempt to confiscate gold, it will be an outright admission that the financial system is collapsing, and the people will know better than to hand over to a corrupt government their only means of survival. The most important point is this: devalued currencies never rise again. Once they are destroyed, they are gone forever, and those whose wealth had once been denominated in them are wiped out. As you have no doubt heard before, not one fiat currency has survived over time, and that is an indisputable fact. More significantly, no fiat currency has ever suffered the abuse that has been inflicted upon the United States dollar, meaning that it is at extreme risk. Gold has been money for 5,000 years. It has not merely survived, it has prevailed over each and every fiat currency collapse throughout history.

Given this, the most important financial question a person can ask him- or herself today is: How is my wealth denominated at this time? And given its denomination, is my wealth likely to be safe in current and evolving circumstances?”
-Stewart Dougherty  - Specialist in inferential analysis, the practice of identifying historic and contemporary patterns and then extrapolating their likely effects upon the future. Dougherty was educated at Tufts University (B.A., magna cum laude), and Harvard Business School (M.B.A. and academic Fellow) – March 2010 -
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-america-s-impending-mast...
http://www.bearishnews.com/post/3044

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:45 | 2854351 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Interesting comments.  The one I like most is the US Dollar is in a bubble.

 

So let's play.  The US Dollar drops like a stone.  So what happens?  Well the Euro and the Yen take off like a rocket - collectively the Euro plus Yen account for 72% of the US Dollar weighting.

 

What else happens?   Well the markets and commodities priced in US Dollars take off too.  So that would add fuel to revenue and earnings of the SP500.

 

So I guess  we'll find out soon about revenue and earnings.

 

Anything is possible, but what is probable is that Gold will fall.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-daily-october-03-2012/

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 01:24 | 2854780 billsykes
billsykes's picture

put into perspective, this is 10% off the highs.

Big deal, it was 30 yrs ago, what gold cannot go higher without all the pundits going BUBBLE, its a top, etc.

Stocks  go to new highs all the time, commodities as well so if their is a pullback, big deal its part of the fun. Look at oil from 25 as a floor to 80 bucks minimum or they  lose money- new floors are created all the time. 

 

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 03:45 | 2855028 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

RiverRoad, I don't disagree, but if the value of money drops harder than gold or silver, you won't be able to buy as much, because it's the ounces that matter not the cost. And will there be any physical you can get your hands on, because the drop in price will mostly be due to paper gold and silver sellers liquidating a) because it's the only asset they have left that isn't underwater and b) to try to get physical.

I'd stay ahead of the curve and buy physical now.

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