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Noisy ADP Print Declines But Beats Expectations; Just 4000 Manufacturing Jobs Added

Tyler Durden's picture





 

For some reason, despite the ADP number coming month after month within a 3 std deviation of the actual NFP, and thus confirming it has absolutely no predictive power, vacuum tube headline scanning algos continue to trade off the number which explains why futures had a brief spike moments ago after the latest September ADP Private Payrolls number came out at 162K, on expectations of 140K. Of course, last month's print which initially came at 201K only to see the August NFP come in at less than half this print, was revised materially lower to 189K, as was the July ADP which was cut by 17K to 156K. But who cares - the algos already had done their ramp job a month ago. Remember: in an election year, all Initial Claims will be revised upward, while all ADP. NFP prints must be revised downward - it's not called the economy for nothing. In other news, when adding the +/-150,000 margin of error on both side of the equation, we can boldly say that according to the ADP, Friday's NFP will come in a range of -1,000,000 to +1,000,000. Courtesy of John Lohman:

Perhaps the only relevant datapoint in the entire ADP report is that manufacturing jobs added were 4,000 in September. Only 996,000 more to go until we hit the president's solemn promise of revitalizing US manufacturing. There was however, a last hurrah for Wall Street: "The financial services sector added 7,000 jobs in September, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain." Correct: the Wall Street layoffs usually begin just before bonus season.

A pretty, if completely irrelevant chart of ADP data:

The breakdown:

From the report:

Private-sector employment increased by 162,000 from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month. Estimated gains in previous months were revised lower: The July increase was reduced by 17,000 to an increase of 156,000, while the August increase was reduced by 12,000 to an increase of 189,000.

 

According to today’s ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 162,000 August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment in the private service-providing sector expanded 144,000 in September, down from 175,000 in August. Employment in the private goods-producing sector gained 18,000 in September. Manufacturing employment rose 4,000, while construction employment rose 10,000, the strongest since March when mild winter weather was boosting construction activity. The financial services sector added 7,000 jobs in September, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain.

 

Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP said, “This month’s ADP National Employment Report shows an increase of 162,000 new jobs in September. Today’s report shows that year-to-date employment gains averaged 171,000 jobs per month, compared to an average increase of 138,000 jobs per month compared to the same period last year.”

 

According to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “The September increase was above the consensus forecast for today’s release and for the official jobs number due out Friday from The Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continued solid gains in employment since Spring further allay fears that the broad economic recovery may be undermined by a softening trend in employment. The gain in private employment in September is strong enough to suggest that the national unemployment rate may have declined.”

 

Employment levels among medium-sized payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose by 64,000, while employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased by 17,000 jobs in September.

More noise here.

 


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Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Tremendous victory comrades!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:33 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

ZH and other sites need to start mentioning the following:

http://ownershiprights.org/

 

What’s at stake?

Ownership rights are an integral part of our everyday lives.  Here is what could happen if we no longer had Ownership Rights:

  1. Selling a used book, iPhone, or pair of shoes on Amazon, eBay  , or at your local flea market could be illegal.
  2. Giving away a couch away on Craigslist could result in prosecution for being an unauthorized distributor.
  3. Libraries would not be able to lend out books.
  4. Redbox and Blockbuster would not be able to rent out movies.
  5. Retailers that obtain their products from a source other than the original manufacturer – which most retailers do – would be engaging in illegal activity.
  6. Consumers could pay more for everyday items purchased online because with less competition, manufacturers could impose higher costs.
  7. Donating clothes to charitable organizations would be considered unauthorized distributions.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Includes ban garage sales. This isn't a fucking joke, several US mfg are the bastards behind the likes of SOPA coming right out and saying they don't want it legal to sell used on items on sites like ebay and craigslist.

As usual "our safety" is all that matters.

This is the solution to high unemployment and a consumer driven economy. Illegal to sell used items, you have to  buy new.  Somehow that will create more jobs? Ha.  Another example of the stupid fucking government getting involved in bullshit it shouldn't that will fuck over all us poor bastards even more so.  I hate this fucking planet.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Relax, it doesn't matter since fraud is the status quo and the moral hazard reamins unchecked.  possession has been the law for quite some time now.

The more they try to kill truly free markets, the quicker they will kill themselves.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Cut the boyz some slack......do you have any idea how hard they had to work to find those 4000 jobs?

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

8. Keeping what you earn

9. Keeping what you save

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Beating expectations, all...  the ... way... down...

 

Won't some channel stuffing fix this?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Indeed it will.  I'll get the shovel.

Oops.  Look Obama created a job.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

You can expect beatings, alright:

http://www.pakalertpress.com/2012/10/03/5-million-volt-cattle-prod-devel...

 

Until morale improves.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

I'll put my money on -1,000,000 for NFP

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

"If it's broke don't fix it"!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

7000 bank jobs when BAC is firing 16,000? hmmmmmmm things that make you go hmmmmmmmm

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Somone has to be hired to process the severence checks.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

4k manufacturing jobs is just deplorable.  

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Our glorious central planners in the Peoples Statistics Bureau have again produced positive jobs report for Glorious Revolution. Vodka rations will continue.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment prianku12
prianku12's picture

Klanttevredenheidsonderzoek

Het klinkt heel logisch, maar tevreden klanten blijven langer klant dan ontevreden klanten. Daarnaast zijn tevreden klanten loyaler en kunnen zij ambassadeur worden van uw organisatie. Alleen al om deze redenen hebben tevreden klanten een positief effect op uw omzet en continuïteit.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

What? Did Burger King add a night shift too?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Naw, there's a roast beef sale at Arbys.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That used to be roast beef.......I don't think roast beef should have bubble holes in it. Just saying.

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Those are arterial channels usually found in the best cuts like the neck. Technically bull scrotum, testicles and bull anus is "Beef" and if roasted it's "Roast Beef"

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

So the corporates continue to say to the survey that they are hiring, yet the tax reciepts we count towards the actual number stay stagnant.  Hmmmm....

.....I will say, I bet this disparency is due to the variance added to the report thanks to temp workers.  A guy can have 2-3 gigs in a month, yet it could be counted as a "hire".

My guess for the NFP number will be 100K.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Hiring people at 30% less pay for the same position is the NKI

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Do they count the number of new hookers and drug dealers in the Service-providing Sector numbers?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Foxconn's recruitment drive in Henan falling apart: report

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1102&MainCatID=...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

Disgusting. IT's like they need 200k slaves and they just pull up to a provence and demand they get the "workers."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment prianku12
prianku12's picture

Klantloyaliteit

Vraagt u zich ook weleens af wat uw klanten gaan doen in deze onzekere tijden? Wat u kunt doen om uw klanten loyaler te maken in deze turbulente markt ? Wie zijn uw huidige klanten en wat zijn hun toekomstige plannen? Is er sprake van klantenbinding of juist niet?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment wareco
wareco's picture

Hmmm, Tyler, you may want to re-read this and make some revisions of your own:  "Remember: in an election year, all Initial Claims will be revised upward, while all ADP. NFP prints must be revised downward - it's not called the economy for nothing."  I dunno, maybe its just me, but I would think Initial Claims would be revised DOWNWARD, while ADP, etc. would be revised UPWARDS, but hey, I'm not runnin' the place.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

dto bitchez...only short makin money

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Fucking Animal Farm.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

rate alert rate alert, Bernanke has just printed another Trillion, 

mortgage rates are 3% and you can buy homes with no credit/ and no score, and no downpayment thru FHA

if you buy prices will collapse but who cares, 

its an election year,

remember we have 1 million hookers and gamblers we need to retrain as Realtors.

remember, houses, arent an abode, 

its an investment, in the future,

FORWARD. to foreclsosure,....

need a wipe for your tush...?  use your college degree financed with your $ 50,000 student loans.

Sheeple...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment d_taco
d_taco's picture

Obama administration tells contractors again: Don’t issue layoff notices

http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/industry/259305-omb-tells-contracto...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Forward Comrades!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Which dance would you prefer to do?

 

1.  Watusi

2.   Electric Slide

3.     The 'Monkey'

 

4.   The GOOSESTEP? (Comrades)

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