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Stocks Up, Bonds Up, USD Up, Gold Up; Oil Plungapalooza

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It wouldn't be the new normal markets if something freaky did not happen. WTI crude was crushed lower (back under $88) and now down almost 10% from pre-QEternity on supply build (totally ignoring the Iran and Syria-Turkey SNAFUs). HPQ stunned investors back to reality and fell 13% to nine-year lows. AAPL did it again - same 310ET time, same velocity of liftathon - which dragged indices up off what could have been a red close. Equities entirely disengaged from risk-assets soon after the US equity open this morning and never looked back as Treasury yields pushed higher into the open and slid lower all day, the USD rose quietly all day long, and gold drifted sideways to modestly higher on the day. VIX limped lower on the day but on the week stocks are up around 1%, Treasury yields down 1-2bps, USD unchanged, and gold/silver marginally higher (with WTI -4.6%). Healthcare and Financials are up around 1.75% on the week with Materials and Energy down 0.6%. Gold and Stocks are recoupled.

 

Summing up today's equity action - risk assets just weren't buying the hype at all... and as stocks started to drift into the final hour, so AAPL came to the rescue once again...

 

AAPL seems entirely Algo-driven now - just look at the ramps, supports, and resistance levels (click chart for large version) - all VWAP-related levels... After spending all day between today's VWAP and Monday's closing VWAP (red oval) - we ramped into the close to enable some large orders out near September's closing VWAP (cyan line)...

 

But Oil was the real story of the day...now down 9.6% from pre-QEternity...

 

and WTI notably underperformed Brent...

 

Is Oil 'rebalancing' to the low-end of the demand-peg against Gold?

 

Stocks and Gold recoupled once again into the close - as Treasuries remain 'flaccid' on the week...

 

On the week - HY spreads, HYG, and equities are back in sync at today's close - but the bid for IG credit seems a little less than aggressive risk positioning...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: LOCK - the new IPO - ended the day -5.67% at the lows of the day - another great wealth transfer completed...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: AAPL Seasonals - lots was made of the +10% average performance of AAPL in October... not much was made of the -9% average November performance that follows!!!!



 

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Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:21 | 2853091 Cdad
Cdad's picture

It wouldn't be the new normal markets if something freaky did not happen. 

LOL!  Great opening line.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2853103 redpill
redpill's picture

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop smoking Iranian Rial bills.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:26 | 2853759 CPL
CPL's picture

Cost average to zero on the way down.  lol

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2853162 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Saudi fat finger of fate.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:21 | 2853092 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Roll over bitchez!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:24 | 2853112 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Like the movie?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:34 | 2853527 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2853097 malikai
malikai's picture

Of course, this all has absolutely nothing to do with the debates tonight!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:24 | 2853104 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

can i haz obama fone

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:50 | 2853234 malikai
malikai's picture

I called and the message said the phone was disconnected. It said something about payment options to restore service..

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:23 | 2853101 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

October surprise.

$263 billion left on the debt ceiling. $111 billion knocked off in two days.

Fun times dead ahead.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:24 | 2853107 gjp
gjp's picture

In addition to AAPL, all the other momo favourites were going crazy today.  When will it end?  When will the teflon Nasdaq take one on the chin?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:29 | 2853137 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When will the bond bubble burst?  When will the fiat dollar die?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:32 | 2853155 gjp
gjp's picture

yes those are important and even more fundamental questions

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:26 | 2853120 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

BTW... bullish on oil...

Turkish parliament will vote tomorrow to give permission to the government to do a ``BUFFER ZONE IN SYRIA`` AKA WAR.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:35 | 2853173 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"Buffer Zone" sounds like a kama sutra pose.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:49 | 2853232 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Ha ha!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:04 | 2853315 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Syria annexation, bitchez!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:27 | 2853123 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Syria (apparently) bombs turkey and oil goes down... This has to be the finest example to date of the "new normal" so often reffered to.

Incredible

And the DXY. Who the feck is buying this peice of shit? No human being surely.

I think the central planners can only "manage" a few assets at a time, they are obviously trying to supress commods, PMs and energy but they cant do it all at once which is why we get these pops in various assets day to day, week to week. Correlation is totaly left FX and RIsk.

BLS soon. Perhaps a temporary break?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:37 | 2853186 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You obviously have not been watching your mandatory and brain deluding ration of BlowHorn [CNBC] programming.  I'll get you up to speed...

You see, tomorrow, if it is observed that M. Romney has won the debate, the dollar will bounce and precious metals will tank.  I know...I know...the world's oldest and only solid currency reacting to these two clowns after their infomercial tonight.  I'm just telling you the setup.

On oil, it is either simply front running this moronic thesis that you will hear folks talking about tomorrow...or The Bernanke is well engaged in selling down crude to fight the perception that he is creating super dee duper inflation.

You see, if you are to understand this "new normal" market, you have to tune in and watch the dumbest people in the country, that being every criminal syndicate pitch man who shills this and that all day, to know why various asset classes are acting entirely insane....ie tune in to the inmates running this banana Republic asylum.  

Recommend ice cold vodka martinis during tonight's debate, and a healthy dose of Valium in the morning...and you'll be all set.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:07 | 2853333 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I'm rolling with some single malt and a good cigar.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:20 | 2853435 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

i was thinknig hours of sex would be a better distraction

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:27 | 2853485 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You may as well...because I believe Wall Street just called the debate for Romney...so there you go.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:22 | 2853915 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

What - the solid butt-fucking we've all been getting isn't enough for you?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:40 | 2853558 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

I'm with ya on the scotch and stogie. Fortunately I work second shift and do not have to bother watching the "debate" at all. Sure to be a real Snoreapalooza.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:29 | 2853773 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Let's say Romney *does* "win" the debate tonight, and gold goes back down into the low $1750s tomorrow morning. Should I rush right out and buy some gold tomorrow? Or should I just sit tight and keep my powder dry until it goes on down to the $1720s, and then buy?

*Will* we ever see $1720-something gold again? $1700? $1680?

If there's going to be a significant dip or correction I don't want to miss it. But I don't want to act prematurely either.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:04 | 2853879 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Can't tell you where it goes to, or when to buy.  The point of my comment was supposed to be ironic.  While the BlowHorn [CNBC] is almost certain to prattle on for a couple days about a "strong dollar" in the wake of a Romney's perceived debate win, the fact is neither of these men have any interest in a strong dollar.

My guess...gold does go down tomorrow...maybe Friday, too.  You can see folks shorting PM ETFs in the after hours tonight.  However, the dip will simply be yet another engineered market response that will be short lived.  

Like all things that come from the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street, it will be just another completely bullshit moment, a poorly thought out thesis, another momentary failure in due dilligence, the continued papering over of the real problem...the actors themselves.

More banker pinks slips, please...and BTFD!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 21:52 | 2854374 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Thanks, Cdad.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:30 | 2853132 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Oil down just in time to cover obombers ass tonight. Now he can hammer Mittens about how he was"wrong about the effects of QE".

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:42 | 2853203 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Won't be the last debate. Meg Whitman, rumored to be Mormon and certainly a Romney supporter did her job today to start the cascade downward. Romney hasn't even tried to use the economy to his advantage yet. Why? Maybe he knows it will be more effective after the crash. Or maybe I'm just a bit more paranoid than normal. This is fun circus to watch that's for sure.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:31 | 2853150 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Oil?  Uh, did someone tell my gas station about that?  Now we'll see how fixed gas is if the price of oil stays low and gas keeps rising.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:42 | 2853565 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Gas has been going down in my neck-of-the-woods. One particular station was over $3.72 for regular two weeks ago, now $3.49.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:35 | 2853153 devo
devo's picture

What's the best way to invest in oil for someone who doesn't trade on Comex? I think it's going to go ballistic within five years.

Oil stocks? ETFs like XOP? Any ideas?

If Comex is the best way, how the hell do I open an account? Googled it and no luck

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:40 | 2853198 adr
adr's picture

If oil goes ballistic you might get a wheelbarrow full of dollars, but there will be nothing left of the economy to spend it on.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2853250 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

A question I've asked myself. I would look for minimum overseas exposure. You don't want gas at $15 but your company has been nationalized by the People's Republic of Mecca. USO better than OIL. CVX over XOM. We're probably looking at several years to get there so the leveraged ETFs will bleed dry over time.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:09 | 2853344 akak
akak's picture

Never mind the abysmal tracking of USO to the actual price of crude.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:57 | 2853269 malikai
malikai's picture

If you can't answer those questions easily right now, stay away. Whatever wealth you lever in the paper markets will be wiped out quickly.

So many people who can answer those questions easily have met the very same fate I describe.

You will be very lucky indeed to see any better result.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:58 | 2853271 PRINTallDAY
PRINTallDAY's picture

You should look up money laundering in the encyclopedia.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:03 | 2853298 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

5 years!!?? holy shit, better be LOT sooner than that...lulz. Of couse, if Crash Part Deaux comes, it goes back to $40/bbl (?)... Or if______ then______

or if, on the other hand, ________, then__________........

I wouldn't buy stawks [but you might], just play price of crude: USO or UCO (x2). Buy all the way down if yer brave or catch a falling knife; next entry for UCO = $24-$25. Be aware that these two will send you K-1's at year end so you have to deal with that BS on taxes

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:19 | 2853422 devo
devo's picture

I mean doubling or tripling within five years. It'll go up once the election is over, but probably $5 gallon, not 10 or 15. I think it'll take a few years for the inflation to work into the system. I'm just wondering the best way to go long if my timeframe is 5 years or so. I never have invested in oil, oil stocks, etc so just clueless about this sector.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 00:24 | 2854794 chump666
chump666's picture

oil minis that trade on indexes, they are derivatives.  the plus you buy then as cash contracts with no margin.  but have stop losses built in. i think citi warrants offer them. which is cool, get a good trading platform and you can see them (citi and others with mega bucks) hedge in this all in market.  when they move, you move. as in topped out hellstorm.

the oil volatility trade is picking up now.   we get a liquidation trade, which i think is just around the corner.  oil will be slaughtered.  unless iran/israel start their war.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2853163 At120
At120's picture

Either the plan is to destroy Iran economically, keep gas prices down before the election to help out Barry, or both.

 

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:19 | 2853431 Big Swinging Richard
Big Swinging Richard's picture

I agree.  Kick the can past Nov. 6th for Barry.  Then, austerity will come to a neighborhood near you in the form of gas lines.  I'm already buying my mass transit tickets for Nov and Dec.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:33 | 2853164 Master Chef
Master Chef's picture

Oil down - prospect of new Gulf war up! (the old take the price down before you know there's going to be a spike routine).

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:34 | 2853171 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture
@russian_market

 

major issues Turkey/Syria tweets of syrian military posts hit by Turks and war delcared???!!!!!!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:39 | 2853191 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why in the hell would Syria attack Turkey? That's a false flag bunch of horse shit.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:49 | 2853231 knukles
knukles's picture

I'm hankerin' to get the first tee time on December 22nd

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:51 | 2853241 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Not fair!  Everyone else will be hungover...

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:39 | 2853190 adr
adr's picture

Apple's own hedge fund has enough cash to bail out AAPL every single day if need be.

Fuck the PPT may have just given Apple the keys to the big green buy button. When one company makes up 20% of the index, that is all you need to pump.

Ponzinomics at its best. Wonder how much of the run in Apple was due to buying their own stock through shell corporations?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:41 | 2853199 Cdad
Cdad's picture

On Apple...yep.  That is why I bought the dip there.  They will go to it again tomorrow...in a sad attempt to hold up the broken market.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2853205 youngman
youngman's picture

It is all Saudia Arabia......they want it dwon  big...they are worried we are going to be self reliant when it comes to oil and gas......scared to death.....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:46 | 2853221 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Good joke.  Very funny.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:43 | 2853207 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Credit was up too...IG19 closed in the high 95s vs. close of 98bps yesterday....

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2853215 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

I am in the tech industry. HPQ is already commoditized Chinese technology. Perfect example of management going after profits and failing to reinvest in the business. Short sighted and they may not pull out of it.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:45 | 2853218 knukles
knukles's picture
Plungapalooza

Holy smokes... wonder whatcha'll call it when Iran gets bombed back to Sumerian Prehistorical Greatness?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:47 | 2853223 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WWIII

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:00 | 2853283 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Gulf War, The Next Generation

(GWTNG)

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:52 | 2853242 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

one more time.. DTO bitchez  8% today.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:53 | 2853251 fig_newton Trader
fig_newton Trader's picture

How the hell has oil Ben down so much I just Don't get it. How can it be a demand issue. Last time I checked demand for oil was pretty inelastic

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:48 | 2853604 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Gas demand is down around 2003 levels. Oil demand is down around 1998 levels. Oil should be priced lower just on those facts, same for gasoline. What is keeping the price up is CTRL P.

Myself, I've been back on my motorcycle for over a month. Due to that I have spent a whole $12.26 on gasoline in the last month. Normally I would spend over $60.00 a week filling my Ford Lightning. Now it is hiding out in the garage and the bike is seeing all the action. Plan on doing that as long as the weather permits. Once night time temperatures are down in the low 30's, the bike gets parked.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:51 | 2853615 Alea Iactaest
Wed, 10/03/2012 - 22:50 | 2854590 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Thanks for that one. It looks even worse than I thought it was.

There is no other year on that chart with anything near as low as this years lows.

Just WOW!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 16:59 | 2853279 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

OBAMA  TO BERNANKE: "PUT OUT THE TWOSOME FEEL_GOOD SAUCE AHEAD OF MY SPEECH TONIGHT"

BERNANKE TO JP MORGAN: "THE TWOSOME? MUST BE A SPECIAL OCCASION!"

OBAMA BACK AT BERNANK: "GOT THAT DEBATE TONIGHT .LETS SEAL THE DEAL AND REEL IN THE MUPPETS"

BERNANK:  "NO PROBLEMO . I'll CALL JP MORGAN first thing. The MUPPETS love nothing more than watching their iSHIT go higher and a 4 dollar decline in oil at the same time"

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:18 | 2853418 fuu
fuu's picture

WHERE WAS MY SILVER/GOLD SMACK DOWN BY 2:30?!?!?!?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:54 | 2853632 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Smackdown coming, just not yet. Will be on the back of a USD surge. Contrary trade of the year. Possible catalyst extraordaire: "resolution" of the fiscal cliff. (May be coupled with an extension of the debt ceiling in a promised austerity package.)

Sure the charts are manipulated, but they are manipulated for a reason. Oversold USD? Check. Overbought Au? Check. Overbought Ag? Check.

Need muppets burned on PMs so they never think about real money again... until it's too late.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:34 | 2853784 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Thanks for the heads-up. I already came across one rumor to this effect, but you just confirmed it for me.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 17:38 | 2853542 Auburn
Auburn's picture

Reminder of a recent post regarding post QE oil pricing (a.k.a. listen to the Tylers and track the dates)

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:04 | 2853671 GlobalThesis
GlobalThesis's picture

"Is Oil 'rebalancing' to the low-end of the demand-peg against Gold?"

 

Is there further elaboration on the topic?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 18:54 | 2853863 chump666
chump666's picture

Onset of volatility to liquidation, everything is going to go except the USD.

A 100% priced in market with a 99% cash-all-in (by everyone)...does take much brains to play the contrarian move.

This thing is going to crumble.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 19:30 | 2853927 BubbleBobble
BubbleBobble's picture

"Oil priced in gold"...what exactly is the story being told here? are the gold producers now accepting Brent as a barter trade? do they all have this chart posted up on their office walls for easy conversion?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 22:16 | 2854459 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

As an oil consumer, I’m happy about the oil price drop. I’ll be happier if it lasts for more than a day. But, therein lies the real problem. I find it strange that a world scale commodity like oil, with transferability, tradability, and liquidity second to none (literally), can see a 4-5% change in its price in one day. This is not a sign of changing supply and demand. This is a clear sign of a commodity futures market that is highly inefficient, corrupt, manipulated, and broken.

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