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Stocks Up, Bonds Up, USD Up, Gold Up; Oil Plungapalooza
It wouldn't be the new normal markets if something freaky did not happen. WTI crude was crushed lower (back under $88) and now down almost 10% from pre-QEternity on supply build (totally ignoring the Iran and Syria-Turkey SNAFUs). HPQ stunned investors back to reality and fell 13% to nine-year lows. AAPL did it again - same 310ET time, same velocity of liftathon - which dragged indices up off what could have been a red close. Equities entirely disengaged from risk-assets soon after the US equity open this morning and never looked back as Treasury yields pushed higher into the open and slid lower all day, the USD rose quietly all day long, and gold drifted sideways to modestly higher on the day. VIX limped lower on the day but on the week stocks are up around 1%, Treasury yields down 1-2bps, USD unchanged, and gold/silver marginally higher (with WTI -4.6%). Healthcare and Financials are up around 1.75% on the week with Materials and Energy down 0.6%. Gold and Stocks are recoupled.
Summing up today's equity action - risk assets just weren't buying the hype at all... and as stocks started to drift into the final hour, so AAPL came to the rescue once again...
AAPL seems entirely Algo-driven now - just look at the ramps, supports, and resistance levels (click chart for large version) - all VWAP-related levels... After spending all day between today's VWAP and Monday's closing VWAP (red oval) - we ramped into the close to enable some large orders out near September's closing VWAP (cyan line)...
But Oil was the real story of the day...now down 9.6% from pre-QEternity...
and WTI notably underperformed Brent...
Is Oil 'rebalancing' to the low-end of the demand-peg against Gold?
Stocks and Gold recoupled once again into the close - as Treasuries remain 'flaccid' on the week...
On the week - HY spreads, HYG, and equities are back in sync at today's close - but the bid for IG credit seems a little less than aggressive risk positioning...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
Bonus Chart: LOCK - the new IPO - ended the day -5.67% at the lows of the day - another great wealth transfer completed...
Bonus Bonus Chart: AAPL Seasonals - lots was made of the +10% average performance of AAPL in October... not much was made of the -9% average November performance that follows!!!!
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LOL! Great opening line.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop smoking Iranian Rial bills.
Sheila Bair's Ridiculous Story About John Thain
Cost average to zero on the way down. lol
Saudi fat finger of fate.
Roll over bitchez!
Like the movie?
Charts, bitchez!
Of course, this all has absolutely nothing to do with the debates tonight!
can i haz obama fone
I called and the message said the phone was disconnected. It said something about payment options to restore service..
October surprise.
$263 billion left on the debt ceiling. $111 billion knocked off in two days.
Fun times dead ahead.
In addition to AAPL, all the other momo favourites were going crazy today. When will it end? When will the teflon Nasdaq take one on the chin?
When will the bond bubble burst? When will the fiat dollar die?
yes those are important and even more fundamental questions
BTW... bullish on oil...
Turkish parliament will vote tomorrow to give permission to the government to do a ``BUFFER ZONE IN SYRIA`` AKA WAR.
"Buffer Zone" sounds like a kama sutra pose.
+ 1
Ha ha!
Syria annexation, bitchez!
Syria (apparently) bombs turkey and oil goes down... This has to be the finest example to date of the "new normal" so often reffered to.
Incredible
And the DXY. Who the feck is buying this peice of shit? No human being surely.
I think the central planners can only "manage" a few assets at a time, they are obviously trying to supress commods, PMs and energy but they cant do it all at once which is why we get these pops in various assets day to day, week to week. Correlation is totaly left FX and RIsk.
BLS soon. Perhaps a temporary break?
You obviously have not been watching your mandatory and brain deluding ration of BlowHorn [CNBC] programming. I'll get you up to speed...
You see, tomorrow, if it is observed that M. Romney has won the debate, the dollar will bounce and precious metals will tank. I know...I know...the world's oldest and only solid currency reacting to these two clowns after their infomercial tonight. I'm just telling you the setup.
On oil, it is either simply front running this moronic thesis that you will hear folks talking about tomorrow...or The Bernanke is well engaged in selling down crude to fight the perception that he is creating super dee duper inflation.
You see, if you are to understand this "new normal" market, you have to tune in and watch the dumbest people in the country, that being every criminal syndicate pitch man who shills this and that all day, to know why various asset classes are acting entirely insane....ie tune in to the inmates running this banana Republic asylum.
Recommend ice cold vodka martinis during tonight's debate, and a healthy dose of Valium in the morning...and you'll be all set.
I'm rolling with some single malt and a good cigar.
i was thinknig hours of sex would be a better distraction
You may as well...because I believe Wall Street just called the debate for Romney...so there you go.
What - the solid butt-fucking we've all been getting isn't enough for you?
I'm with ya on the scotch and stogie. Fortunately I work second shift and do not have to bother watching the "debate" at all. Sure to be a real Snoreapalooza.
Let's say Romney *does* "win" the debate tonight, and gold goes back down into the low $1750s tomorrow morning. Should I rush right out and buy some gold tomorrow? Or should I just sit tight and keep my powder dry until it goes on down to the $1720s, and then buy?
*Will* we ever see $1720-something gold again? $1700? $1680?
If there's going to be a significant dip or correction I don't want to miss it. But I don't want to act prematurely either.
Can't tell you where it goes to, or when to buy. The point of my comment was supposed to be ironic. While the BlowHorn [CNBC] is almost certain to prattle on for a couple days about a "strong dollar" in the wake of a Romney's perceived debate win, the fact is neither of these men have any interest in a strong dollar.
My guess...gold does go down tomorrow...maybe Friday, too. You can see folks shorting PM ETFs in the after hours tonight. However, the dip will simply be yet another engineered market response that will be short lived.
Like all things that come from the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street, it will be just another completely bullshit moment, a poorly thought out thesis, another momentary failure in due dilligence, the continued papering over of the real problem...the actors themselves.
More banker pinks slips, please...and BTFD!
Thanks, Cdad.
Oil down just in time to cover obombers ass tonight. Now he can hammer Mittens about how he was"wrong about the effects of QE".
Won't be the last debate. Meg Whitman, rumored to be Mormon and certainly a Romney supporter did her job today to start the cascade downward. Romney hasn't even tried to use the economy to his advantage yet. Why? Maybe he knows it will be more effective after the crash. Or maybe I'm just a bit more paranoid than normal. This is fun circus to watch that's for sure.
Oil? Uh, did someone tell my gas station about that? Now we'll see how fixed gas is if the price of oil stays low and gas keeps rising.
Gas has been going down in my neck-of-the-woods. One particular station was over $3.72 for regular two weeks ago, now $3.49.
What's the best way to invest in oil for someone who doesn't trade on Comex? I think it's going to go ballistic within five years.
Oil stocks? ETFs like XOP? Any ideas?
If Comex is the best way, how the hell do I open an account? Googled it and no luck
If oil goes ballistic you might get a wheelbarrow full of dollars, but there will be nothing left of the economy to spend it on.
A question I've asked myself. I would look for minimum overseas exposure. You don't want gas at $15 but your company has been nationalized by the People's Republic of Mecca. USO better than OIL. CVX over XOM. We're probably looking at several years to get there so the leveraged ETFs will bleed dry over time.
Never mind the abysmal tracking of USO to the actual price of crude.
If you can't answer those questions easily right now, stay away. Whatever wealth you lever in the paper markets will be wiped out quickly.
So many people who can answer those questions easily have met the very same fate I describe.
You will be very lucky indeed to see any better result.
You should look up money laundering in the encyclopedia.
5 years!!?? holy shit, better be LOT sooner than that...lulz. Of couse, if Crash Part Deaux comes, it goes back to $40/bbl (?)... Or if______ then______
or if, on the other hand, ________, then__________........
I wouldn't buy stawks [but you might], just play price of crude: USO or UCO (x2). Buy all the way down if yer brave or catch a falling knife; next entry for UCO = $24-$25. Be aware that these two will send you K-1's at year end so you have to deal with that BS on taxes
I mean doubling or tripling within five years. It'll go up once the election is over, but probably $5 gallon, not 10 or 15. I think it'll take a few years for the inflation to work into the system. I'm just wondering the best way to go long if my timeframe is 5 years or so. I never have invested in oil, oil stocks, etc so just clueless about this sector.
oil minis that trade on indexes, they are derivatives. the plus you buy then as cash contracts with no margin. but have stop losses built in. i think citi warrants offer them. which is cool, get a good trading platform and you can see them (citi and others with mega bucks) hedge in this all in market. when they move, you move. as in topped out hellstorm.
the oil volatility trade is picking up now. we get a liquidation trade, which i think is just around the corner. oil will be slaughtered. unless iran/israel start their war.
Either the plan is to destroy Iran economically, keep gas prices down before the election to help out Barry, or both.
I agree. Kick the can past Nov. 6th for Barry. Then, austerity will come to a neighborhood near you in the form of gas lines. I'm already buying my mass transit tickets for Nov and Dec.
Oil down - prospect of new Gulf war up! (the old take the price down before you know there's going to be a spike routine).
major issues Turkey/Syria tweets of syrian military posts hit by Turks and war delcared???!!!!!!
Why in the hell would Syria attack Turkey? That's a false flag bunch of horse shit.
I'm hankerin' to get the first tee time on December 22nd
Not fair! Everyone else will be hungover...
Apple's own hedge fund has enough cash to bail out AAPL every single day if need be.
Fuck the PPT may have just given Apple the keys to the big green buy button. When one company makes up 20% of the index, that is all you need to pump.
Ponzinomics at its best. Wonder how much of the run in Apple was due to buying their own stock through shell corporations?
On Apple...yep. That is why I bought the dip there. They will go to it again tomorrow...in a sad attempt to hold up the broken market.
It is all Saudia Arabia......they want it dwon big...they are worried we are going to be self reliant when it comes to oil and gas......scared to death.....
Good joke. Very funny.
Credit was up too...IG19 closed in the high 95s vs. close of 98bps yesterday....
I am in the tech industry. HPQ is already commoditized Chinese technology. Perfect example of management going after profits and failing to reinvest in the business. Short sighted and they may not pull out of it.
Holy smokes... wonder whatcha'll call it when Iran gets bombed back to Sumerian Prehistorical Greatness?
WWIII
Gulf War, The Next Generation
(GWTNG)
one more time.. DTO bitchez 8% today.
How the hell has oil Ben down so much I just Don't get it. How can it be a demand issue. Last time I checked demand for oil was pretty inelastic
Gas demand is down around 2003 levels. Oil demand is down around 1998 levels. Oil should be priced lower just on those facts, same for gasoline. What is keeping the price up is CTRL P.
Myself, I've been back on my motorcycle for over a month. Due to that I have spent a whole $12.26 on gasoline in the last month. Normally I would spend over $60.00 a week filling my Ford Lightning. Now it is hiding out in the garage and the bike is seeing all the action. Plan on doing that as long as the weather permits. Once night time temperatures are down in the low 30's, the bike gets parked.
Demand destruction, bitchez.
Here's a chart:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
Thanks for that one. It looks even worse than I thought it was.
There is no other year on that chart with anything near as low as this years lows.
Just WOW!
OBAMA TO BERNANKE: "PUT OUT THE TWOSOME FEEL_GOOD SAUCE AHEAD OF MY SPEECH TONIGHT"
BERNANKE TO JP MORGAN: "THE TWOSOME? MUST BE A SPECIAL OCCASION!"
OBAMA BACK AT BERNANK: "GOT THAT DEBATE TONIGHT .LETS SEAL THE DEAL AND REEL IN THE MUPPETS"
BERNANK: "NO PROBLEMO . I'll CALL JP MORGAN first thing. The MUPPETS love nothing more than watching their iSHIT go higher and a 4 dollar decline in oil at the same time"
WHERE WAS MY SILVER/GOLD SMACK DOWN BY 2:30?!?!?!?
Smackdown coming, just not yet. Will be on the back of a USD surge. Contrary trade of the year. Possible catalyst extraordaire: "resolution" of the fiscal cliff. (May be coupled with an extension of the debt ceiling in a promised austerity package.)
Sure the charts are manipulated, but they are manipulated for a reason. Oversold USD? Check. Overbought Au? Check. Overbought Ag? Check.
Need muppets burned on PMs so they never think about real money again... until it's too late.
Thanks for the heads-up. I already came across one rumor to this effect, but you just confirmed it for me.
Reminder of a recent post regarding post QE oil pricing (a.k.a. listen to the Tylers and track the dates)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/curious-case-post-qe-oil-hangovers
"Is Oil 'rebalancing' to the low-end of the demand-peg against Gold?"
Is there further elaboration on the topic?
Onset of volatility to liquidation, everything is going to go except the USD.
A 100% priced in market with a 99% cash-all-in (by everyone)...does take much brains to play the contrarian move.
This thing is going to crumble.
"Oil priced in gold"...what exactly is the story being told here? are the gold producers now accepting Brent as a barter trade? do they all have this chart posted up on their office walls for easy conversion?
As an oil consumer, I’m happy about the oil price drop. I’ll be happier if it lasts for more than a day. But, therein lies the real problem. I find it strange that a world scale commodity like oil, with transferability, tradability, and liquidity second to none (literally), can see a 4-5% change in its price in one day. This is not a sign of changing supply and demand. This is a clear sign of a commodity futures market that is highly inefficient, corrupt, manipulated, and broken.