Obama Reelection Odds Vs The S&P

Tyler Durden's picture

Not much to say here. Hopefully, for the bulls' sake, the Obama reelection odds (which really are Bernanke, and thus QEternity, termination odds) are not a leading indicator to the market. Either that, or the recent spike in Obama's ratings was merely a bubble which got preemptively popped even without 5 consecutive CME margin hikes on the Obama InTrade contract.

Via John Lohman

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redpill's picture

The problem is inTrade doesn't have HFT, so clearly it's just an issue of needing market-perfecting liquidity.

vast-dom's picture

charts schmarts. there is clearly little correlation to anything other than hopium, which is gaseous and as such levitates until it dissipates. Ergo, the SP as per above should have crashed after last evening's Obummer debacle.

Meesohaawnee's picture

i totally agree.. charts farts. Bernake probably already knows what the SP will finish on 10-16 or 11-20 or any given day. All this is pre programmed theater now. It finishes what they want.. See Crude last 2 days if you need an example

Dalago's picture

What about his odd of returning to Man's Country bath house of Chicago?  Ya'll should know about that.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

He was there for just a tug bro.

BandGap's picture

Should have filmed a Got Milk? ad.

Dalago's picture

Tugs, blow and some good ol' fashion Caligula-like loving.

economics9698's picture

After losing the election he can quit the Low Down Club and have a coming out party. 

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Does that mean the S&P will crash? 

gjp's picture

I'm afraid it's not Obama's chances leading the market but rather the market leading Obama's chances.

That confidence thing, you know.

Obama knows for sure.  That's why there's no limit to his Wall Street ass-kissing.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Well, his reelection is priced in, so I guess Soros told everyone the winner already.  It's a big club, and I ain't in it.

mrdenis's picture

Soros is privy to the vote count ....he can make anything he wants ....

Reven's picture

I think you're right.  Romney won the debate, and so stocks go up?  Stocks should be collapsing as Romney's chances rise this week if they reverse were true.

Aegelis's picture

I thought it depended on whether or not on election day he sees his shadow.

redpill's picture

Even his shadow is distancing itself from the campaign at this point.

Aegelis's picture

Now that there, is funny. X-D

notbot's picture

Someone is getting "offed" for this debate.  

He looked like a kid playing in the big leagues (of course, he's always looked that way to me).

Ineverslice's picture

Constitutional lawyer from Harvard/Columbia and now an incompetent debator...

wtf.  doesn't add up.  Who is this guy?

Rainman's picture

Life is hard without an axelrod-loaded teleprompter

francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

As a prosecutor (blaming Bush), he did OK.

As a defense attorney (defending his own record), not so much.

Zola's picture

Actually the move in the Obama contract is very consistent with a free market. He was extremely overbought, Romney was way below the 100dma as well. Only a catalyst-whatever it could be was needed. I dont think this changes the trend - yet.

redpill's picture

The bottom is going to fall out of the Dem turnout numbers this time around, the apathy is thicker than pot smoke in the choom wagon during total absorption.  That being said I'm sure as hell not looking forward to Mitten's regime.

blunderdog's picture

I agree the Dem turnout should fall, especially younger voters, but I still think the election will be awarded to Obama.  Not that there's any reason to care.

I don't think the Republican Party wanted to win this one, that's all.  That's the only reason I think that Romney selected Ryan as a running-mate. 

Old folks VOTE, and I doubt they're fooled about the past threats he made about Medicare.

CommunityStandard's picture

It's true.  I'm really surprised anyone wants to be president next go around.  History will place the most blame on whoever is sitting president when the great ponzi ends.

Bringin It's picture

Old folks vote, but Diebold votes more often.

t0mmyBerg's picture

That is funny.  I was actually wondering whether Obama decided to say "fuck it" and went into the debate high as a kite and maybe that was why he was lethargic and slow with his words.  Whatever the case, once again ZH sees to the heart of the matter which is that the issue is whether QE Forever Benyamin is pulling the levers behind the curtain or we get a harder money guy in John Taylor.  Market definitely reacted in real time to the Mittens performance but as I wrote someone this morning, I wonder if they need to be careful what they wish for because with BB gone, the money tsunami stops and Mr Market will have a hard time walking on water.

Captain Kink's picture

Sell the Romney rally--if he wins, it will be 1600 +/-, then reality will set in--and then buy the ensuing recession's bear market for the beginnings of big business-as-usual secular bull.

And if O wins, more QE, etc.  will be a good market longer, but end in disaster.

I'm ready for anything....

Bringin It's picture

Are you ready for rehypocarthiating counter party stole your money risk?

zapdude's picture

I'm still writing in Ron Paul, and after that waiting for the inevitable collapse. 

Prepare and gird your loins, for our country is slowly accelerating its descent.

redpill's picture

Don't be so crass, its angle of inclination is just below zero, that's all.  Minus signs deserve their fair share, too.

Translator's picture

Nothing says I'm a desperate moron more than throwing away one's vote in order to help a racist socialist win an election!

Dr. Engali's picture

Let me see ...what are our choices? A colored big government spender..or a white big government spender? No thank you. I'll still be voting for Ron Paul.

Catullus's picture

I would think voting for Obama would be say that more given that he IS a racist socialist

Urban Redneck's picture

Voting is a privilege too many have sacrificed too much for, as a matter of their principles.  If the choices in an election SUCK, a vote of principle is better than surrendering the privilege that was so sacrificed for.

CommunityStandard's picture

Exactly.  I'm voting Gary Johnson.  Though anyone is better than those two fools.

fuu's picture

Hey grats on the 8 whole weeks of douchebaggery!

Saro's picture

"racist socialist"

You're gonna have to be more specific there . . .

ssp2s's picture

The Chairsatan will be buying Obamashares on inTrade with freshly printed dollaz just as soon as he finishes today's AAPL rampfest.

Dr. Engali's picture

Intrade is a lot like the "market" used to be. There was a time when it was obscure and you could find true price discovery. But once it became more popular and any clown with an internet connection started trading based on what ever delusional thoughts they may have, then it lost all of it's accuracy. Now it's just plain old gamblimg.

malikai's picture

As a delusional clown with an internet connection, I resemble that remark!

Catullus's picture

Who "won" the debate? Did he pull his pitcher in the 5th? Did he pinch hit for his catcher and have to put his DH in the field? I hate when that happens.

Oh, wait. This is politics, not sports? Whatever. Same thing to most 'merYcans.

Ineverslice's picture

I still think they are running Romney to lose.

He's got no chance against Benny's Inkjets.

IDK...obamacare is now pushed through, maybe they are done with him, whatever.

new game's picture

he had a sore arm - got milkl...

new game's picture

whatever the outcome; pm up and ready to break thru to da other side...

ATG's picture

S&P 500 gains of >10% favoured electoral vote incumbent landslides 94% of the time (n=15/16):

 

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904819604577647440046292220.html

 

MR said he would not reappoint BSB in 2012 after his top economic adviser said BSB should be considered for another term:

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/24/business/la-fi-mo-bernanke-romney-federal-reserve-chairman-20120824

 

Mt Everest Fade Intrade Irish had 0 as high as +36% Last over MR:

 

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

 

More accurate and reliable IEM had 0 as high as +62% over MR:

 

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

 

That dropped drastically last night and today to +36% Last to match Intrade:

 

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html

 

Thus today we Sold to Close Long SPY Calls for +43% profits in three days

 

and

 

Began accumulating Buy Open Long QQQ Puts:

 

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/chip-company-targeting-100.html

 

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/147451-spx-decline-alert.html

 

Cheers... 

 

 

 

 

Shizzmoney's picture

Obama went from -382 to -304 in the span of two days on Pinnacle Sports.