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Obama Reelection Odds Vs The S&P

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Not much to say here. Hopefully, for the bulls' sake, the Obama reelection odds (which really are Bernanke, and thus QEternity, termination odds) are not a leading indicator to the market. Either that, or the recent spike in Obama's ratings was merely a bubble which got preemptively popped even without 5 consecutive CME margin hikes on the Obama InTrade contract.

Via John Lohman

 


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Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The problem is inTrade doesn't have HFT, so clearly it's just an issue of needing market-perfecting liquidity.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

charts schmarts. there is clearly little correlation to anything other than hopium, which is gaseous and as such levitates until it dissipates. Ergo, the SP as per above should have crashed after last evening's Obummer debacle.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i totally agree.. charts farts. Bernake probably already knows what the SP will finish on 10-16 or 11-20 or any given day. All this is pre programmed theater now. It finishes what they want.. See Crude last 2 days if you need an example

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

meelooveeyoouloongtiime.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Dalago
Dalago's picture

What about his odd of returning to Man's Country bath house of Chicago?  Ya'll should know about that.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

He was there for just a tug bro.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Should have filmed a Got Milk? ad.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Dalago
Dalago's picture

Tugs, blow and some good ol' fashion Caligula-like loving.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

After losing the election he can quit the Low Down Club and have a coming out party. 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Hosted by AC360

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Does that mean the S&P will crash? 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

wtf?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

I'm afraid it's not Obama's chances leading the market but rather the market leading Obama's chances.

That confidence thing, you know.

Obama knows for sure.  That's why there's no limit to his Wall Street ass-kissing.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Well, his reelection is priced in, so I guess Soros told everyone the winner already.  It's a big club, and I ain't in it.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

Soros is privy to the vote count ....he can make anything he wants ....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 02:25 | Link to Comment Reven
Reven's picture

I think you're right.  Romney won the debate, and so stocks go up?  Stocks should be collapsing as Romney's chances rise this week if they reverse were true.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

I thought it depended on whether or not on election day he sees his shadow.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Even his shadow is distancing itself from the campaign at this point.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

Now that there, is funny. X-D

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment notbot
notbot's picture

Someone is getting "offed" for this debate.  

He looked like a kid playing in the big leagues (of course, he's always looked that way to me).

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Constitutional lawyer from Harvard/Columbia and now an incompetent debator...

wtf.  doesn't add up.  Who is this guy?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Life is hard without an axelrod-loaded teleprompter

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

As a prosecutor (blaming Bush), he did OK.

As a defense attorney (defending his own record), not so much.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment Zola
Zola's picture

Actually the move in the Obama contract is very consistent with a free market. He was extremely overbought, Romney was way below the 100dma as well. Only a catalyst-whatever it could be was needed. I dont think this changes the trend - yet.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The bottom is going to fall out of the Dem turnout numbers this time around, the apathy is thicker than pot smoke in the choom wagon during total absorption.  That being said I'm sure as hell not looking forward to Mitten's regime.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I agree the Dem turnout should fall, especially younger voters, but I still think the election will be awarded to Obama.  Not that there's any reason to care.

I don't think the Republican Party wanted to win this one, that's all.  That's the only reason I think that Romney selected Ryan as a running-mate. 

Old folks VOTE, and I doubt they're fooled about the past threats he made about Medicare.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

It's true.  I'm really surprised anyone wants to be president next go around.  History will place the most blame on whoever is sitting president when the great ponzi ends.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Old folks vote, but Diebold votes more often.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment ChubbNut
ChubbNut's picture

Lmao.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

That is funny.  I was actually wondering whether Obama decided to say "fuck it" and went into the debate high as a kite and maybe that was why he was lethargic and slow with his words.  Whatever the case, once again ZH sees to the heart of the matter which is that the issue is whether QE Forever Benyamin is pulling the levers behind the curtain or we get a harder money guy in John Taylor.  Market definitely reacted in real time to the Mittens performance but as I wrote someone this morning, I wonder if they need to be careful what they wish for because with BB gone, the money tsunami stops and Mr Market will have a hard time walking on water.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Sell the Romney rally--if he wins, it will be 1600 +/-, then reality will set in--and then buy the ensuing recession's bear market for the beginnings of big business-as-usual secular bull.

And if O wins, more QE, etc.  will be a good market longer, but end in disaster.

I'm ready for anything....

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Are you ready for rehypocarthiating counter party stole your money risk?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment zapdude
zapdude's picture

I'm still writing in Ron Paul, and after that waiting for the inevitable collapse. 

Prepare and gird your loins, for our country is slowly accelerating its descent.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Don't be so crass, its angle of inclination is just below zero, that's all.  Minus signs deserve their fair share, too.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Translator
Translator's picture

Nothing says I'm a desperate moron more than throwing away one's vote in order to help a racist socialist win an election!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Let me see ...what are our choices? A colored big government spender..or a white big government spender? No thank you. I'll still be voting for Ron Paul.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

I would think voting for Obama would be say that more given that he IS a racist socialist

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Voting is a privilege too many have sacrificed too much for, as a matter of their principles.  If the choices in an election SUCK, a vote of principle is better than surrendering the privilege that was so sacrificed for.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Exactly.  I'm voting Gary Johnson.  Though anyone is better than those two fools.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Hey grats on the 8 whole weeks of douchebaggery!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

"racist socialist"

You're gonna have to be more specific there . . .

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

The Chairsatan will be buying Obamashares on inTrade with freshly printed dollaz just as soon as he finishes today's AAPL rampfest.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Intrade is a lot like the "market" used to be. There was a time when it was obscure and you could find true price discovery. But once it became more popular and any clown with an internet connection started trading based on what ever delusional thoughts they may have, then it lost all of it's accuracy. Now it's just plain old gamblimg.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

As a delusional clown with an internet connection, I resemble that remark!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Who "won" the debate? Did he pull his pitcher in the 5th? Did he pinch hit for his catcher and have to put his DH in the field? I hate when that happens.

Oh, wait. This is politics, not sports? Whatever. Same thing to most 'merYcans.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

I still think they are running Romney to lose.

He's got no chance against Benny's Inkjets.

IDK...obamacare is now pushed through, maybe they are done with him, whatever.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

he had a sore arm - got milkl...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

whatever the outcome; pm up and ready to break thru to da other side...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

S&P 500 gains of >10% favoured electoral vote incumbent landslides 94% of the time (n=15/16):

 

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904819604577647440046292220.html

 

MR said he would not reappoint BSB in 2012 after his top economic adviser said BSB should be considered for another term:

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/24/business/la-fi-mo-bernanke-romney-federal-reserve-chairman-20120824

 

Mt Everest Fade Intrade Irish had 0 as high as +36% Last over MR:

 

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

 

More accurate and reliable IEM had 0 as high as +62% over MR:

 

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

 

That dropped drastically last night and today to +36% Last to match Intrade:

 

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html

 

Thus today we Sold to Close Long SPY Calls for +43% profits in three days

 

and

 

Began accumulating Buy Open Long QQQ Puts:

 

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/chip-company-targeting-100.html

 

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/09/147451-spx-decline-alert.html

 

Cheers... 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Obama went from -382 to -304 in the span of two days on Pinnacle Sports.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment deejo
deejo's picture

Let's hope "They" don't figure out a way to make these bugs work any faster ! not cost prohibitive...yet.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2212807/21st-Century-alchemy-The-tiny-bug-turn-common-elements-24-carat-GOLD.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

"'This is neo-alchemy. Every part, every detail of the project is a cross between modern microbiology and alchemy,' he said. 'Science tries to explain the phenomenological world. As an artist, I’m trying to create a phenomenon. Art has the ability to push scientific inquiry.'"

 

Im not worried.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The empty suit got exposed and the emperor has no clothes.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

If the empty suit has not clothes I guess we're left with this:  http://cdn.breitbart.com/mediaserver/Breitbart/Big-Government/2012/09/03/NECD/beach-chair.JPG

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

Barack Obama was dreadful in the first presidential debate. He seemed confused and hesitant; his thoughts were incoherent.

There seems to be confusion among the Left as to how such a thing could have happened. How could such a celebrated orator underperform? The answer is simple: Obama did not underperform.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100020522/obama-did-not-underperform-we-saw-the-real-man/

 

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

it's astonishing that a president with less than 50% approval and a basket case economy can even think of re-election - it is the adle brained american who is supporting the little boy and yet the alternative is no better.....both are fascist totalitarian control freaks who have no substantive policy differences....

if romney thinks that he can lower taxes to raise revenues he is full blown nut case.....obamney wants war, huge spending, huge deficits, totalitarian health care, wars of imperial aggression, and so much more destruction to the nation in favor of the plutocrats....

watch the price of oil to see if the oligarchs have switched butt boys...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Political commentators in France and Germany registered surprise at Obama's underwhelming performance, saying the election could be much tighter as a result.

 

"Obama showed a lack of desire to be president, which could put him on shaky ground as a presidential candidate," said liberal German news magazine Der Spiegel.

 

"It's now clear that to get back into the White House the U.S. president needs running shoes, not flip-flops."

 

France's Le Monde appeared equally surprised by Obama's sub-par performance. "Where did the favorite go?" it asked on its front page, with a headline below saying: "Obama fails his first televised debate against an incisive Romney."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-europe-us-debate-idUSBRE8930Y520121004

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment sgorem
sgorem's picture

obummer is his own BLACK SWAN. YIPPPPPPEEEEEEKIAAAAAAAAAA..................

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