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Oil & Stocks Win As Bonds, USD, & AAPL Lose

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Threaky Thursday. Oil perfectly round-tripped its plunge from yesterday (ending back above $91.50) as Treasury yields caught 'up' to equity strength on the week. USD weakness was a one-way street of straight-line trend from 0500ET in EUR today - until the Fed minutes broke something. Gold and stocks continue their synchronized lift - though gold is still the clear winner post QEternity. Trannies outperformed again but the day-session in the Dow and the S&P were largely treading water - after the factory-order-driven stop run surge this morning. Meanwhile, all those front-running winners in MBS land have seemingly started to unwind - as mortgage spreads have retraced post-QEternity gains quite significantly (which is likely what helped Treasury yields higher today - though the convergence to risk also helped). The ubiquitous 3ET AAPL ramp was modestly front-run and epically failed as the stock-that-shall-not-be-named closed red with a $666 handle once again with some major volume at the close. VIX was solidly banged lower right at the close (coinciding with AAPL's high volume action) to end at 14.55 (down 0.88vols) in line with the S&P.

 

Brent and WTI recovered yesterday's losses - though the spread remains wider...

 

Bonds played catch up (yields) with the rest of the QE-sensitive risk assets today...

 

Dow Transports (cyan) outperformed on the day but the day-session of stocks was mostly a small sideways drift except for the Russell and Nasdaq...

 

S&P 500 futures have channeled since early yesterday morning - as volumes lag horribly...

 

Treasury yields are leaking higher towards pre-QEternity levels...

 

Mortgage spreads are seeing very significant retracement of the post QEternity front-running... taking profits never flet so good - but what about those rising retail mortgage rates?

 

EURUSD channeled all-day long- providing a nice boost for US equities - can you spot where the FOMC minutes hit?

 

 

AAPL's ramp failed and we saw major volume come in at the close... yesterday's closing VWAP seemed an anchor today...

 

VIX was smacked down at the close to catch up to S&P's performance on the day...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
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TVIX -2.42%  "All is well"

< snicker >

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

AAPL is only needed when it looks like the indexes will close red, otherwise it's left alone.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Blasé Faire
Blasé Faire's picture

I think we may be long lost relatives, Mr. Colon.

Cheerio.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Hmmmmmmm indeed as I am usually lost for long periods

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

TRAN and RTY joining the SPX/NDX today signals more gains in the coming days--they were noticeably underperforming the other indices for a while and making alot of skeptics.

The move out of AAPL is twofold:

--PMs are diversifying their high-beta plays outside AAPL (there are plenty of nice high-betas outside AAPL gaining attention).  Time to $$$ in AAPL and buy other high-beta tickers.

--there was a DB report on China Mobile nixxing any cooperation with AAPL over iPhone 5 subsidy costs--the DB report made a lot of sense and has been going around.

PMs will be raided next week.  3-5% plunge.   

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Looks like the big worms are getting out.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

What do people expect tomorrow in the (paper) silver market , tomorrow?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I expect the price will change.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

down. good opportunity to buy phys

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

NFLX bitchez

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Thousands of $70 Oct 5 NFLX calls will expire worthless tomorrow--the MM tricks in NFLX are tuned to the "maximum pain" level of manipulation.  NFLX trading today: very algo.   

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

EVERYTHING trading today very algo. Like EVERY DAY.

You can't short this market. Bernanke's got everything by the balls.

Those shorting waiting for that black swan to show up are just feeding the monster.

I'm a bear but I'm also no fool. We'll have our day in the sun someday, just not now.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The support levels NFLX bounced off today were pure algo calculations.  That is all I meant.  Yesterday, I actually think some institutional buyers were buying first and last hours.  

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and it algoed after the handshake last night to the up tick of 45 on dow futures.. anything politico these days gets algoed mommy make this stop!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Everyone fleeing AAPL and rolling into safer equities like AMZN with 320 p/e. Makes perfect sense!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

AMZN is a farce.  CRM too.  The whole 'cloud' fetish is sickening.  It's still simply a software service, most everyone uses remote servers.  But apparently if you say cloud enough your stock will just go up forever without ever needing to actually earn anything.  In Benny Bux world anything goes.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I dunno since technical or realities mean nothing, but between IOS6 and the Mac OS X Lion 10.7.5 update, AAPL is looking at an 0-2 count lately.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who's Bernanke's next Debt Bitch gonna be? Anywho...hello from where the first electric turbine was mnfctered folks! And God Save the Queen...and damn the torpedoes, and Hell Hath no Fury...and shit...bro's

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

OT  Why does my RSS feed only give me part of the story now? It used to have the whole story. Now I am actually inclined to not visit the site as much because the abbreviated rss story is often not very interesting.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

PLATINUM was an even bigger winner today.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

The auto industry is the primary consumer of platinum. It goes the way of the catalytic converter.

Shift away from gas guzzlers and cars in general will reduce demand for platinum in the following years. I value it below $800 projected against vehicle sales. In my opinion silver and gold offer better deals.

Hydrogen fuel cells would boost platinum demand, but we haven't taken that path with electric vehicles. The sales of electrochemical cell based ones are abysmal anyway.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1, nice observations on platinum demand.

I just like diversification, even in PMs!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

WTI/Brent market is pure psychosis.  DOJI levels of indecision coupled with lots of paper burning.  Everybody has a different take on supply/demand levels, and  the threat of Syria/Turkey or Iran is balanced out by a SPR dump rumor.    

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

Funny to see a market actually trade on differing fundamental views (if that's what you're saying) while the stock market just goes up, up, up regardless of anything going on in the world it is supposed to reflect.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Key to trading AAPL:

1.) BUY below 666.666

2.) SELL above 666.666

/sarc

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

No. In Finance you walk TOWARD Evil, not away from it.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment kornholio
kornholio's picture

Bullish

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

What it looked like over here. Nice ride in crude.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/10/04/todays-action-2/

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment FiatFapper
FiatFapper's picture

Interesting charts.

So from this chart, there's large divergence (purple histogram) on daily (top chart), so would you be looking to sell EU?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Heavy fighting going on to hold silver below $35. Commercials are shitting their pants.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Non farms report tomorrow: Positive report? Stocks go up. Negative report? Ben prints; stocks go up. All hail Ben, our God, blessed be thy equities. Thee motor of thy market shalt find infinite gas despite the needle on E, for much fiat currency is in the Caymans, the heaven of our God Ben above, Amen.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

havent we learned already the "jobs" report is just a silly media event like,,,elections. They make the market what they want regardless

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

I always thought volatility was a two way street ... gee was that a dumb investment theme.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

The biggest BULLSHIT rally ever!!! We don't need no water let the motherfucker burn!!! Unfortunately, I've been 100% in equities since the collapse before last...

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