QE3 Has Been Fully Priced In: Comparing QE1 vs QE2 vs Twist 1 vs Twist 2 vs QEternity
In the weeks leading into QE3 we repeatedly stated that virtually the entire impact of the latest Fed market boosting quantiative easing program has already been priced in. Below, we present this visually, while also comparing the impact of all the other (four of them) easing programs launched previously by the Federal Reserve.
And here is Goldman's Kamakshya Triveri explaining just what we said all along:
Q. Have equity markets already “paid” for QE3?
In short, yes. In the past, equity returns have typically increased following QE announcements, with the S&P 500 rising by an average of around 5% in the 30 days after announcements. But the equity market performance since the QE3 announcement appears to be running short of that. Perhaps markets have learnt from history-a unique feature of the QE3 announcement was that equity markets already climbed sharply into the announcement day itself, despite tepid macro data. But history also suggests that equities could make further progress as long as the macro data surprise to the upside. There have been two prior instances when equity markets gained materially in the 30 days following the easing action after having already risen into the announcement itself (round 1 of QE1 and QE2), with the macro data beating expectations following the easing announcements in both cases. We likely need to see similar improvements in the cyclical data now as well to see another leg higher in markets.
Of course, we have yet to see any actual credible surprises. All eyes to tomorrow's NFP which even if a beat will likely be attributed mostly to pre-election propaganda in light of the European triple-dip recession.