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Uncle Sam's FICO Score

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If the US Government were applying for a loan, what would its credit score be? ConvergEx's Nick Colas estimates it at 655 (based on www.myfico.com) - which is higher than we suspected - but consistent with the structural belief in both sovereign and personal debt rating systems that historical payment patterns matter more than ability to pay, leverage, or loan amounts.

 

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas:

If the U.S. Government were applying for a loan, what do you think its credit score would be?  Let’s plug some data into the “Free Credit Score Estimator” on www.myfico.com (the consumer outreach site for Fair Isaac, one of the three major providers of personal credit scores in the United States).  There are 10 questions to the survey, which I will summarize here, along with the answers I plugged in:

  • How many credit cards do you have?  I answered “5 or more” on behalf of Uncle Sam, the largest number offered in the survey.  The follow up question is “How long ago did you get your first credit card?  I entered “More than 20 years ago,” the longest time frame choice offered.
  • How long ago did you get your first loan?  The answer that seems to best fit is “More than 20 years ago.”  Pretty much the same as the prior point – the U.S. has been a net borrower for a long time indeed.
  • How many loans or credit cards have you applied for in the past year?  Trick question, this, I think.  I was conservative and answered “6 or more” since government bond auctions are pretty regular affairs.
  • How recently have you opened a new loan or credit card?  I entered “More than 6 months ago.”  The last increase to the Federal Debt Limit was in January, to the current $16.4 trillion.
  • How many of your loans and credit cards currently have a balance?  Bit of a tough one, this.  Technically, the U.S. government has one massive credit card – the ultimate Black Card, really.  But if you parse this out among the various buyers of U.S. sovereign debt, the more honest answer is “9 or more,” which is what I entered.
  • How many of your loans and/or credit cards have a balance?  “9 or more” as well here.
  • Besides any mortgage loans, what are your total balances on all other loans and credit cards combined?  The highest amount you can choose is $20,000. I checked the box there.
  • When did you last miss a loan or credit card payment?  Thankfully, the U.S. can enter “I have never missed a payment.”
  • How many of your loans and/or credit cards are past due?  Again, thankfully, “0” is the answer.
  • What percent of your total credit card limits do your credit card balances represent?  As of September 28th, the U.S. Government had borrowed $16, 027 billion on its Statutory Debt Limit of $16, 394, or 97.8%.  I check the “90-99%” box.
  • Please indicate if you have ever gone through any of the following negative financial events in the last 10 years: bankruptcy, tax lien, foreclosure, repossession, or account referred to a collection agency.  Toss up call – I check “No.”

According to FICO based on these answers, Uncle Sam’s score is 630 – 680.  And, apparently, America should buy Suze Orman’s FICO Kit Platinum for $49.95, an offer for which appears prominently just below our hypothetic result.  Can’t hurt, I suppose…

Ironically, the average FICO score for a U.S. consumer is 690 – pretty much spot-on with the back of the envelope assessment of the nation’s finances.  It’s not a great score, truth be told, since half of all U.S.-based borrowers have better.  But if America were shopping for a new car or looking to get into a larger house, chances are pretty good it could get a mortgage or a car note.  If you’re wondering how this is possible given all the hand-wringing about the state of the economy and continued increases in borrowings, consider the following:

  • Half of a FICO score comes from an assessment of your payment history and the length of your overall credit history.  If you’ve been borrowing a lot but always pay what’s due, that’s not a problem.  But if we plug even one missed payment for 30 days into that FICO score estimator for Uncle Sam, his hypothetical score drops to pretty sad 570 – 620.
  • Only 30% of a FICO score is driven by the amount of money you owe.  In sovereign debt circles – rather than consumer finance – the most common measure is Debt-to-GDP. The U.S. is essentially at 100% if you include the debt issued to Social Security (and I don’t know why you wouldn’t) and well over that number if you add off-balance sheet liabilities.  Still, as bad as those numbers get, it’s not a big deal to a FICO score.  Or, apparently, to S&P, Moody’s or Fitch.  But going through the FICO questionnaire and the underlying math, I see a little better the logic behind this.
  • The “Types of Credit Used” by a consumer are an even smaller contributor to a FICO score.  So the U.S. Treasury’s proclivity for borrowing over short time periods (5 years or less) even though the country has scant chance of paying the debt back over this time horizon isn’t much of a problem.

Of course, in a typical loan application process, Uncle Sam would also have to enter his current income and –most likely – some history of this statistic.  The Daily Treasury Statement is essentially the record of the money government takes in (taxes, mostly) and spends (Social Security, Medicare/aid and defense, mostly).  You can check out this report here: https://fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html. The simple math is the following:

  • Tax/Withholding Receipts Fiscal Year-To-Date have been $2,179 billion.
  • Incremental debt Issued: $1,280 billion.
  • Total spent: $3,459 billion.  Just over a third of this spending is funded with debt (noted in the prior point), and the balance comes from tax and withholding.
  • So how does someone who earns $63,000/year after taxes and borrows $37,000 to plug the whole in his budget still merit an “Average” credit score?  Because, apparently, he has always paid what he owes, promptly and in full.

The Treasury tax and withholding data is also a useful proxy for employment growth, a timely topic given the upcoming Employment Situation Report on Friday.  The market is looking for 110-120,000 jobs added in the month, but our data shows that this is probably a stretch.   A few points to close out this note:

  • Total tax and withholding receipts for the month of September 2012 were up just 3.6% versus prior year.  If you only look at those payments automatically withheld by employers, that comp moves down to 3.3%.  Over time, tax receipts and job growth should track very closely.  Average income has been flat for +10 years, after all.
  • September’s comp is very close to every monthly result for this data back to April, consistent with a sluggish economy and little net employment growth. 
  • The average monthly growth in non-farm payrolls for the last 6 months is 97,000 workers, and that is a fair estimate of what we should expect for September as well.  That’s consistent with the tax/withholding data.  It’s just not consistent with expectations, which as I noted above sit uncomfortably higher at 110 – 120,000. 
 


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Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

The fattest, dumbest, laziest and most unemployed person in America with a FICO score of 0 can still get a college loan so this juxtaposition is worthless.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Aaaamen!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

In the name of the leverage, the debt, and the holy fiat.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

FICO= Future Income COrzined!

Aaaannnd it's gone!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment johnconnor
johnconnor's picture

and a Obama phone bitchez!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

When the end goal is default on as much debt as possible...I'm not sure they really care.

By the way, I wouldn't care about my score either if I could print $100 bill in my basement.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

200 Trillion in unfunded liabilities and a FICO of 650? I definately need to get more credit cards. They better borrow on "stated income" because their DTI ratio is -55%.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Take the cash back card!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"......but consistent with the structural belief in both sovereign and personal debt rating systems that historical payment patterns matter more than ability to pay, leverage, or loan amounts."

Of course. Because I always look behind me while driving forward and vice versa.

When common sense and reason leave all that remains is pixie dust and belief. Which explains perfectly herd behavior and the hive mentality.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Pretty quiet today, hangovers all around?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

yep. thats the last time i take a shot every time say "obamacare"

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I was done before they even got on stage, 2 drinks for every blink was insane.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Worthless comparison.  Take away the government's ability to print, and then tell me the FICO score.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

agree....even Iceland can easily meter a 700 despite an FU to the banks

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

In reality, there is nothing about "credit"...that is actual "credit".  The fact that repaying indebtedness is called "credit" is a big problem. Good word usage to keep the proletarian in line though...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I have friends that wring their hands about their "credit" score.

When I tell them that a "credit" score is really a "debt" score which is a measure of how much they can be taken advantage of I get the deer in the headlights look and "but...but...but...".

They have been programmed to believe that a good "credit" score means they are a good person.

Go figure.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

+1 Exactly

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment fuu
Thu, 10/04/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's the best GI Joe cartoon I ever seen!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Sounds good enough to buy a new GM or Chrysler, get a home equity loan, buy some AAPL stock, and go on a bender to Vegas.

You can't blow bubbles without soap; government has plenty of soap.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

FICO is a debt score. It measures how likely you are to take out loads of debt and pay bankers interest on the loan. FICO does not care if you own any real assets or if you pay your insurance or utilities on time for deacdes.

After all, doesn't paying cash make one a terrorist???

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

630 to 680 with printing press, 69 without! what a joke

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture
  • dont worry after US declares bancruptcy it will recieve a credit card application 6 months later
Thu, 10/04/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment BrigstockBoy
BrigstockBoy's picture

A bank I reviewed back in 2006 would give the prime rate on an unsecured $75 thousand consumer loan to anyone walking through the door with a 620 FICO. When asked why they used 620 (the "average" reported FICO by Fair Isaac was around 720 at the time), they indicated that they were using the Fannie Freddie guidelines! Just plain stupid...

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

If the US gummit's FICO score falls below mine, will I be able to qualify for a mortgage?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 05:30 | Link to Comment AmeliaV
AmeliaV's picture

Honestly, Uncle Sam's score is higher than I expected it will be, so everything is not so bad. There are lots of articles which say that the US is deeply in debt, and I think that it's true because consumers and government try to fix all the financial problems with a help of making a debt, government isn't focused of saving and cutting expenses, that’s why the debt is growing. Almost third part of Americans do not have any emergency savings and use no fax payday loans online when emergencies arise, so make a new debt instead of managing a budget and saving money for a rainy day.

 

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