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Bonds Down, Stocks Down, Gold Down, Oil Down, Jobs... Up?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While Europe was ripping higher this morning, commodity prices were slipping quietly lower and Treasury prices higher as the USD was very modestly higher and US equity futures were treading water. The payroll print provided the fuel to pump us up to within a tick of the year's highs in the S&P, smashed the USD weaker, twanged Treasury yields higher and sent Financials and Materials zooming higher. Unable to break those record highs, stocks reversed as Energy (Oil was sliding once again) and Tech (AAPL) led them lower. Within a few hours we had retraced the entire NFP spike in FX and equity markets but Treasury yields kept pushing higher (30Y +14bps on the week). Gold closes green on the week while Oil/Silver/Copper were red as the AUD lost almost 2% against the USD and EUR gained 1%. AAPL tumbled 2%, closing below its 50DMA for its biggest 2-week slide in six months. VIX was jabbed under 14% briefly but ended fractionally lower on the day at 14.4% (-0.2vols). Equities and risk-assets disengaged today and equity's inability to manage a late-day ramp (and AAPL closing at lows) must be a little concerning for the cheerleaders.

Gold and Silver remain the post-QEternity winners, followed by the Dow, with Oil and European stocks lagging...

 

and while the Transports remain the post-QEternity losers, they have caught up a little this week as the Russell and Nasdaq pull back...

 

S&P futures gave back some of the week's gains and was unable to stage a decent ramp into the close. We have seen three high volume, high average trade size sell-offs this week punctuated by a lovely linear tickle-algo-driven ramp...

 

Gold drifted lower post-NFP, and while the USD and stocks diverged from the barbarous relic in the short-term, they repidly turned back around as the post-European close proceeded. Bonds kept pushing higher in yield to end somewhat synchronized on the week with stocks (from their early Monday correlations)...

 

Quite a week for Oil... but Gold managed to close the week positive (up 0.5%) and Silver and Copper unch...

 

The USD, aside from the 70-pip ramp-and-return in EUR this morning, has been dead-pan flat for over 24 hours - ending the week -0.75%. AUD has lost significant ground on the week and the day (as JPY also dropped 0.85% on the week against the USD)...

 

Treasuries slid all week - with 30Y ending +14bps and 10Y +10bps - all inching close to unch from QEternity levels...

 

While we touched the year's highs in the indices today, the sectors are behaving quite differently since the post-QEternity peak... with Healthcare +3.5% since the 9/14 peak, Staples +1.5%, Utilities Unch, Financials & Tech -2.5%, and Energy -4.8%...

 

and the major financials tried to recapture the 9/14 post-QEternity highs today but were immediately sold... BofA and MS are -4.5% from that peak despite the apparent euphoria...

 

So the indices keep on suggesting the world is fixed and life is good, the risk-aversion seems high.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: unLOCKed value... after IPOing at $9.00 per share, opening at $8.66, spiking to $9.02, LOCK has dropped to close at its lows at $7.30 - for a 19% wealth transfer in 3 days - congratulations...


 


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Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Good news must now be bad news.....of course the 'good news' can't bear too much scrutiny, so it must really be headline reading algo's misinterpreting good news for bad news....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

So let’s say I got a part time job and can’t make ends meet.

So I go out and find another part time job to fill the void.

Does that now count as two people employed?

The statistics are as fake as my avatar!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment unknownknowns
unknownknowns's picture

I don't know Badabing, your avatar may come to reality in this one!

'don't know who will trash you twice though :)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Offtopic and innapropriate.  but i didn't know where else to post...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ-OHqCbrZk

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

AAPL DOWN?

 

 

DAMN THOSE HEDGE FUNDS ARE SCREWED

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

if we remain in this re-election channel on the indexes until Nov. 6, the top of the channel at that point is over 14,000, trade it until then, or just ram your head into a hard object of choice repeatedly.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Ha ha, said it before, AAPL is not a viable investment anymore, just an instrument to short and long based on technicals, options calculations and algo codes.  I look forward to the day when the entire religious world of analysits, blogs, hedge funds, etc. surrounding AAPL  get sucked away to the "desert of the real."    

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

It took about 40 years for people to figure out that the Soviet state was lying to its people.

The US had a good run and survived thanks to that failing Soviet state earlier but I think the gig is up here as well.

When people figure out their state and government is FULL OF SHIT, the collapse is not far off anymore.

You guys all have made the same experience where you find yourself talking about the lies of our government and the collapse of the system and your family and riends don't want to hear about it. Well, they do now.

Just wait for the day when a majority of people figures out that there's no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

I was having exact same thought regarding those citizens of "non democratic" states that manipulate, control the media, the propaganda...those poor Germans and Japanese who believed they were winning the war til days before the Red army and US troops came driving through their towns.  Who is more deluded now???  North Koreans or Americans???  When I speak to college educated, "smart" businessmesn, civil servants, and the like...they have no idea what is going on.  Never heard of QE.  No idea how government is functioning.  Just a belief that someone is working on their behalf!!!  I'm pretty sure most don't want to be awoken and will fight to avoid that outcome.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Some quotes that have proven to be quite fitting:

"You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it."

And one more:

I know *exactly* what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know you can't explain, but you feel it. You've felt it your entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about? "

Morpheus

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

At best case there are people in the system who believe to "save" democracy and capitalism that they must be put into a coma to allow for a "healing" period before reinstating...but this seems wildly too kind and optimistic.  I think more likely the lethal injections were already applied but it just takes a while to fully run through the system.  But something will be...I just wonder when it is that people will recognize it for what it is?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I find myself sometimes wondering, why the hell did I wake up? Living in ignorance is truly more blissful. Especially when you realize that there's not a damn thing you can do to really change it. Lies, lies and more lies. Day in and day out. Propaganda on every channel, in every medium.

To get anyone unplugged from the programming is a big deal. Getting someone to realize that the indoctrination is near impenetrable once you're out, is yet another thing.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"So the indices keep on suggesting the world is fixed and life is good, the risk-aversion seems high."

There is a major re-allocation game going on where stocks that are not performing as well as their index are being thrown in a "dead-beta short pool" (CMG, AAPL, BAC....)

Then, there are various QE baskets (based on what performed best during QE2: SCHN) as well as a "quality" basket (based on individual theses, like MON for desperate farmers who need a better crop next year, or WMT for "housing recovery" (I know, I know)).  

There is even an "Obama basket" (health care, clean energy, soft capitalism, Tesla, WPRT) and a "Romney basket" (beaten down coal stocks like ANR, BTU, as well as military defense ...) that is beinf algoed based on what elections prospects are at the moment.  

It was pretty obvious early today that shorts were out for blood, from the "Einhorned" CMG (hard to borrow at this point) to AAPL...

When PMs get hit next week, then things get "morer" desperate for longs.

It is as if the whole world sees through the BLS manipulation at this point and it throws shame on POTUS in a way that Romney has not yet exploited.  

BTW, wrt David Kostin, if you talk to him, he admits a little doubt about this 1250 EOY target, as it is pretty apparent that Congress is not as linear a disappointer as everybody in their bile acidic skepticism makes out.  

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

It is as if the whole world sees through the BLS manipulation at this point and it throws shame on POTUS in a way that Romney has not yet exploited. 

But not the whole world is voting the next POTUS.

Who are the oligarchs putting in power is the question? Was Obama really that much worse during the first TeeVee duell? Did Obama get a Fed endorsement with unlimited QE?

Let's say the Lord of the Leveraged Buyout Kingdom, Mitt Romney gets elected. He can pull whatever dirty tricks he has up his sleeve and blame the "bad Obama economy" for his controversial actions. Maybe Obama got told to prepare for an exit and stick with the program?

Which platform is more suited to benefit the oligarchy which had its ass rescued by a President who increased the nation's debt and gave trillions to them in bailouts and other programs?

The oligarchs and their banks are fat and happy. They're "saved" but they're not making money in a NIRP environment. Bernanke said he would pay the banks "more" on their deposits. Nice gig. In order to do that though, he or the next guy would need to raise rates across the board.

Who cares that the official unemployment rate is 7.8% unless you're the guy who would use this as an excuse to raise rates on deposits for the cabal?

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment GAAPpreNixon
GAAPpreNixon's picture

Agreed.

The problem with achieving the oligarchic wet dream of "Government By Game Theory" is that once all truth has been stamped out and only one reptile is left standing, anything that "reptile" says, by definition, lacks credibility.

WE ARE THERE.

Rod Serling: Logic is the enemy and truth is a menace. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=oADlQPJ_Zfc  

 

 

 NO TRUTH = NO HOPE

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oh yea baby. So much so we're saved and Benny the Ben Bernake can stop printing and go home with chin up.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Crakkajamma bitchez!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:40 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Today the market - "Ripped", "Slipped", "Smashed", "Twanged", "Zoomed", "Jabbed", and AAPL "Tumbled".

 "Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!"

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Great. You could add "nosedived", "tanked" , "dumped" or just "SLASHED"

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

That was an ugly session...on many metrics.  Lots of bearish action on the individual equity names I follow.  The entire market was hit by the macro sell signal coming from Apple...and the volume on the VXX was titanic.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Quad-inverse split/vxx.

Now they can short it some more.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I agree it was an "ugly session"--actually, it was the worst, most depressing session I have seen in a long time.   But it was also reassuring: The market called the entire BLS lie for what it was.   Today, I initialized major shorts on ES/QQQ--I have no belief the "election channel"  will peak at the Tom Lee 1495.  Throw me in the Charles Bidermann coffin when ES is 1560, but for now, short.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Transparent lies....and the people shrug. Sad.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

There's an app for that.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

It's all so "in your face" now.  The manipulation of all sorts of data, the lies, the dislocations...Everyone knows fundamentals no longer matter (til they do), you don't fight the Fed, etc.  These are dislocations on a grand political, economic, financial, societal scale.  We are all so deep in the lie and denial we can't face it.  The pain of the honesty would be too great it seems for this nation.  This farce of an election with whatever farcial result will create real anger that will need an outlet somewhere...where o where will the polarized sides work this out???  Perhaps a sandy, far off distraction could be arranged?  Anything to avoid looking in the mirror for just a little longer.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment zendome
zendome's picture

We should take up Lewis Black's idea from a few years back.  A group of We the People should go to Washington and take our elected officials out for an afternoon of electroshock.  Just to get them back on track.....just to get 'em back on track.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Ham-bone, totally on your side, but have you ever stared into the eyes of a true believer who denies any rational argument about these dislocations? You underestimate how many people are blindly committed to the lie without any anger whatsoever.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

I know I am the lunatic...and you are apparently my lunybin mate.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Hey, you write really well...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

you wanna know what's crazy, I'm well positioned and in good shape going into this thing...but it's driving me mad.  You'd think I'd be pleased certain positions are doing so well but quite the fucking opposite...my winners are predicated on humanities foibles and I'm not enjoying this...I swear I wish there was some "other" side to take in this game where my gain isn't predicated on societies loss.  If I'm right there really will be no winners, only bigger losers.  I really don't like this game and pretty sure I'm really not gonna like what this game is going to inevitably force us into.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It overcame the moral self-questioning of short selling other people's futures long ago--I have absolutely no guilt contributing to the disaster to come--I look forward to the next sucker to step into my trap--if I were to take the "humanitarian" side of many of these trades, I realize I would lose my ass within a few days given my leverage ratios--I do not want to be begging for Chicken McNuggets and living in a dumpster in Oklahoma while the dude with the shotguns, organic garden and gold bars is living well.   I could be "big loser" in a day or two if I do not watch out, esp. in this market.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

spoken like a true scholar of Gordon (the) Gekko

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

processing...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

I cant figure oil out.  How can it be less than $100 a barrel with WW3 knocking at the door?  I know I must missing something.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Simple.

A fight between depression and WWIII.

Eventually something will give.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment thomasincincy
thomasincincy's picture

i think it's having both at the same time

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

WTI/Brent is the most psychotic commodity right now.   The manipulation is so desperate and blind.  It is clearly the most difficult part of any commodities portfolio right now.   It tugs at my attention nearly every 15 minutes 24/7--I almost cannot sleep without dreaming of WTI/Brent futures at this point.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

Someone is making big money in California because I paid $4.979 per gallon last night to fill up the tank.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

And gas prices still high.

I really thought about betting on lower prices for brent&WTI (before London close) over the weekend, but I didn't dare to touch that potatoe with my bare hands today.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Prices do not reflect supply, demand, or anything else not included in Bernanke's "What should oil cost today? (pseudorandom number generator)" equation.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

yes. its called an election.... have fun with DTO and make a buck in the next 30 days

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

In other words, nobody gives a fuck anymore.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

You will drink your recovery kool-aid and like it.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment malikai
Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I bitched all morning that I was going to buy stocks, but I never actually did it.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Everyone got jobs no need to buy/sell stocks.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment NOTfromSanFrancisco
NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

Wall Street Regulator Ramps Up EnforcementNew York Times

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/wall-street-regulator-ramps-up-enforcement/

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, once considered a toothless regulator, brought a record number of enforcement cases over the past year, as fines soared.

I feel so much better now!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

I would prefer "70 pimp rap and return".

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

DEFLATION IS COMING HEAD FOR THE HILLS GRAHRAM SUMMERS WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG!!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

DJ ramped in the dying minutes.

 

It seems it takes one of the established boys to make other people see the emperor has no clothes. For anybody to doubt that the stock market, statistics, records and history are not massaged and falsified to suit the powers currently at the helm, requires belief bordering on religious faith.

If they can buy debt with new paper money, they can also buy minds, labour, effort and support, and they sure as hell can buy shares and manipulate numbers.

The ramp of the Dow Jones today is an example of that, I think.

The house is trembling and the effort to keep it standing is going to increase until it is no longer possible. That day will come. I just whish I knew when!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment QE49er
QE49er's picture

What kind of brain did you put in the economy?  Abe Normal?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

The big picture is that gold, silver; their miners and stocks are in primary bull markets courtesy of the Fed.

Furthermore, October 4 was a relevant day for silver and gold because market action has clearly frustrated the incipient secondary reaction that was beginning to develop in such markets. We are, “in the clear” thereby being the primary bullish trend reaffirmed and negated any secondary reaction.

Thus, now both the primary and secondary trend is firmly bullish.

Furthermore, this bullish breakout in gold and silver has also implications for the stock markets.

More on the breakout and its consequences here:

http://bit.ly/QK5T0C

On the other hand, bonds are in a very difficult juncture. There are four clouds on the horizon that spell trouble for bonds and the USD. Look at the chart and the comments thereto:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/10/dow-theory-update-for-oct-5-m...

As to stocks, they continue long term bullish because of five reasons:

http://bit.ly/On8jUg

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

With all respect, I wish you were right, but: Gold/silver will be taken down at least 3/5% shortly by the corrupt powers that are amassed against them.  This goes without saying.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Please be correct! The day gold/silver might crash is the day I'm prepared to go shopping and converting some more. But I'm not holding my breath.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

$32.78-$33.50 and $1691.95-$1727.57 sounds like hopium to me.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

They were $26 and $1550 just a few weeks ago.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

$26 was good for me. But it didn't last long enough. $1550 was like a mirage.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Early August but yeah. Since then we've had QEternity. I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm just saying it sounds like a pipe dream. I'll take it, then again I buy it every week no matter the current price. I'm dumb like that.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I stand corrected on the first few %.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

You just mean the rigged price on paper. Let it be as low as possible before the SHTF, that will help us all. It doesn't change anything on the worth and value of silver or gold.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment PhysicalRealm
PhysicalRealm's picture

The Securities and Exchange Commission said Friday that it had temporarily suspended the securities trading of the Canadian firm Liberty Silver Corp.  http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/10/05/51015.htm

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 F/X doesn't buy the Bernanke put! Risk F/X should be much higher!  I'm not talking about that ponzi "Euro", either!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

Tyler,

Everyone is confused because Arch-Opportunist Romney threw you Austerity-Mongers under the bus on Wednesday.

Now nobody in the US market is very sure about anything at all.

New Market Mechanics, however, remain very much in place, unless various PPTs are pumping extremely hard to an unsustainable level:

A convincing general market rally depends on allowing Brent, Gold, and Euro to escalate - not just one, not just two, but all three.

Now everybody has to decide whether they want a market rally - and when.

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The SP500 weekly shows top.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-weekly-october-05-2012/

 

With earnings coming in over the next few weeks, it's going to take a lot of mirrors and magic for this market to go much higher.  But then again, the bulls have the Bernake in their corner writing more checks at multi year highs.

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