• BullionStar
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An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:

  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

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Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859344 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

POS US Dollar is getting smoked.  US Communist leaders need another PM smackdown to keep the Pig from breaking 79.00

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859345 ekm
ekm's picture

 

Same as Open Ended QE, this is NOTHING LESS THAN PANIC.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859348 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

It's all 6's to me.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859350 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Numerology,

Sacred Geometry,

and

Astrology

=

What they go by and how they communicate.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2859452 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Because phones are dumb.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:51 | 2859643 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Guess they haven't see the game changing iPhone5???!(lol, good stuff tmosley)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859351 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Relax,

Its only the phone number for the bloke who "does gods work".

who is a "chosen one" himself.

Goes by the name of bielzibub or something, a bloke who works for him told me in strict confidence, so dont tell no one else, that he is a "bit of a cunt mate, well no infact, he is a lot of a cunt, and the best part of him ran down his mothers leg"

Keep it to yourself ZHers, woudnt want this getting out now....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2859494 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

IntheMix96, I gotta tell ya, since no-one else will:  You're a foul-mouthed, disgusting mouth-breathing knuckle-dragging moron.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859518 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Zeroavatar.

Cheers mate!!

:-)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:58 | 2859693 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Zeroavatar,

I couldnt resist this though.  How do you know I am fouled mouthed?  What the fuck gave you that idea?

You dont understand irony much do you?  You dont realise you will probably never hear me speak?

Unless you fucking missed it sunshine, we happen to be typing here boyo, and now you understand just what irony is eh?

Typing and speaking are not the same things.  And I get the feeling you dont like the word "cunt".  Well skip my posts then, no skin off my nose sweetheart.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 02:26 | 2862280 awakening
awakening's picture

I like it actually, beats 'political correctness' (read: 'baffle with bullshit') any day of the week.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859353 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I've got another aberration for you.  873K jobs added last month - the highest job growth in the last 30 years?  I can't believe that they have the gall to stand by these numbers.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859362 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

They just follow the orders of their dear leaders.  Who needs facts?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:43 | 2859856 notbot
notbot's picture

I'm totally speechless.  What a complete joke...look at the chart.  It's 2x anything in the last 4 yrs.  

https://buffer-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/50200b1b64fea2686900002f/7439bc1...

 

You had to know some misdirection was coming after that debate performance...should have guessed it'd be a gov stat.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859365 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Moscow expressed regret on Thursday over Romanian attempts to raise in the Council of Europe the issue of the restitution of 93 tons of gold evacuated to Russia during World War I, and called on Bucharest not to "stir up the past," Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said. "Romanian parliamentarians have more than once tried to internationalize this issue, which long ago lost its urgency," he said.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859381 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I divided it 9 times and got the same answer every time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859382 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Thanks Zerohedge.  There has always been a part of me that wanted to give the benefit of the doubt about these BLS numbers to the regular people that work there.  But no longer.  I call upon whistle blowers to come forward about this report.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2859406 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

good  idea   but   good   luck

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2859905 Doomer_Marx
Doomer_Marx's picture

Yeah, I do statistics in pharma. I've looked for something to show up in the numbers, never seen something so obvious. Real data isn't clean enough for this. There's got to be at least one guy/gal in there that does a few of their own checks to keep them honest. Then again, maybe not. I remember being right out of school and applying at a tobacco company for a biology lab job. They gave me the weirdest personality test. I have always been convenced they found me too honest to do tobacco genetic engineering for them (minored in genetics which seemed to be their true interest). Wouldn't be surprised they don't screen their applicants at the BLS the same way.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859383 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is the way the former Soviet Union ran their economy. Until it all collapsed. I can't believe anyone with any ounce of sense will believe these numbers. Hear me Jim Cramer? Anyone who does is a complete fool.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859386 valkir
valkir's picture

I think,time to get out of Dodge is almost here.This will not end well.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859387 Sgt. Oddball
Sgt. Oddball's picture

"Woe to you, Oh Earth and Sea, for the Devil sends the
beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short...
Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the
beast for it is a human number, its number is Six hundred and
sixty six."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrSiIqCpxB8

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:53 | 2859396 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

    WOW...one can only imagine next month's numbers:  everbody and their uncle will be working!!!

As a side-bar, Dr. Michael Hudson tears apart timmy, the geitner as the king of crooks on keiser report....just as I've alluded to many times on here.

   Buy physical gold and silver.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:54 | 2859399 kito
kito's picture

romney better start working the hair angle........his well coiffed 'do is about the only thing left for him.........

between the ongoing gulf buildup and now these shadazzling unemployment numbers................its all ovah' for mittens..............

 

i hear u.s debt was reconfigured, there was a huge accounting error discovered.............seems it was bushs fault................good news.............. the country is only in the hole for $10 bucks.................

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:15 | 2859498 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let the new sheriff give it a shot......couldn't do any worse....that's all I'm saying.

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:18 | 2859508 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

-The sheriff is near!

-No dangummit, the sheriff is a niDONG

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859401 irie1029
irie1029's picture

My Obama phone number!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2859403 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

how evil is that?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859405 Racer
Racer's picture

and if you are one of those ahem, 2/3 and only work on minimum wage for 1 hour, you are still employed aren't you!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:44 | 2859608 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Yep, gearing up to sell "Tickle me elmos(big birds?)" at the toy supermart store for $7.25 an hour has saved the economy!!!! Vive la capitalism, bitchez!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:58 | 2859421 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Tyler(s),
Priceless!

DavidC

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2859429 Michelle
Michelle's picture

It's no wonder American students are lagging in Math and Science, even our "leaders" don't know how to do it.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:17 | 2859766 unrulian
unrulian's picture

fuzzy math

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2859435 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

these  people  better  work  on  their  lying  skills    in  some  respects    i  hope  they  do,  one  more failed  pinocchio  like  these  comical  efforts    and  we  go  to  war  within  short  days...  now  thats  a  winner

    vomitUS

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2859438 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

From the Arima X12 web page:

"Many seasonal and trend filter options"

Exactly.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:03 | 2859444 JimRogers
JimRogers's picture

Anyone able to recreate this math?

 

Which line items ought to be totalled to observe this malfeasance?

 

Cuz I couldn't see it...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2859447 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Once in college we had to do a household survey for a geography course. Some kids fudged their data and got caught through a random spot check done by the prof. They automatically failed the course and were put on academic probation.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2859495 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Not double secret probation?

Bet those kids wound up at the BLS.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:17 | 2859502 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

...after which, they were hired for government work.

FIFY

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859506 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

too late...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:05 | 2859462 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Check out the participation rate for the 65yr and older crowd...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU01375379

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:06 | 2859465 Satan
Satan's picture

You will find me in the details...bitchez.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:08 | 2859469 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

You've finally gone and cracked the fake employment numbers code.  our congrats!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:08 | 2859470 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

This is as close as we're gonna get to a "smoking gun."  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:10 | 2859477 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I really am surprised no one here has mentioned this demonic fact....

This number here is an Obomb'a'nation.

The devil has devious ways folks, watch out strangers bearing gifts....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:11 | 2859480 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Goldman's Jan Hatzius on CNBC doing a reach around follow up for Obama on the BLS 7.8% print.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859517 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If this number were true. Which undoubtedly it's not. How was the QE infinity justified by the Fed? There mandate is unemployment and price stability. Unemployment is now suddenly at a 44 month low.

This government is so out of control under Obama it is beyond compare.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:22 | 2859532 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

caught red-fucking-handed

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:27 | 2859551 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

and I thought the unemployment rate falling magically to 7.8% was the only odd statistical aberration I would see today...

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2859584 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

My wife and I were married on 6-6-66 and we're still married.  Does that mean we're a "statistical aberration"?r

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