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An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:

  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

 

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Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:37 | 2859299 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

That's just coincidence, come on

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:41 | 2859316 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Hey Tyler...you're famous

 

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2012/10/unemployment-plummets-78/57640/

 "Fuck it, let's throw some crackpots in there to legitimize ourselves,"

MDB could work for the Atlantic.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859352 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

I hear the "Illuminati" like to "code" messages to each other with"numerology". But hey, you hear all kinds of stuff, right?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:48 | 2859374 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

I'm pretty sure 873,000 is code for "suckers!"

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:58 | 2859419 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I'm pretty sure when we were told to watch for the sign of the beast this is what he was talking about.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2859427 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

WOW... Another Sign For

DECEMBER 21, 2012 !!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:03 | 2859446 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

It's a little scary how brazenly corrupt things have become.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:11 | 2859478 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I actually prefer it that way.  It increases the odds stupid people will finally realize what's going on...provided they're not easily distracted by shiny objects...hey look, an iPhone 5!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:28 | 2859561 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

MLB playoffs, college and pro football... Stupid people are set.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:42 | 2859578 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Good enough for government work.

Bring on the Iron Maiden!

Torches blazed and
sacred chants were phrased
as they start to cry
hands held to the sky
In the night
the fires are burning bright
the ritual has begun
Satan's work is done
0.666666666666* the Number of the Beast
Sacrifice is going on tonight

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:36 | 2860030 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Tyler, you are pure evil! You won't let them enjoy even a moment of glory. Why can't you let sleeping dogs lie?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:40 | 2860047 viahj
viahj's picture

even Socrates enjoyed a good play now and then. 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:29 | 2859564 redpill
redpill's picture

Gosh, apparently that spam account that claimed his friend's mom was making $18,000 in two weeks working from home was telling the truth x 800,000.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:28 | 2859557 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Yeah, and look at gold and silver plummeting on the good economic news.  Oh wait....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:53 | 2859391 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Ca-winky-dinky

QInfinity

BLSInfinity

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2859409 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Watch slaughterer and his friends short ES/QQQ today.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2859439 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Expecting more HORROR after hours, eh?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2859453 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Horror already hit 2 days ago.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:06 | 2859467 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Phuck the batteries must be dead in my HORROR alarm.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:43 | 2859610 AGuy
AGuy's picture

BLS I got your number 
I need you to make a new number mine 
BLS change your number 
873-5820

873-5820

873-5820

BLS, BLS, you're got the number I need!

 

-O'bama Tutone

 

Pun on Tommy Tutones Jenny I got your number 867-5309

 

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:58 | 2859915 mantrid
mantrid's picture

peculiar statistical aberration

 

no, it's called model fitting :D

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:48 | 2860283 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Silly rabbit. Math is for nerds.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:37 | 2859302 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

hey thats Obama's number

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:48 | 2859312 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

The "devil you know" vote to ensue; an outcome seeking a model?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2859305 Zola
Zola's picture

The tree of liberty must be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2859451 Laretes
Laretes's picture

parrots and trannies?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:05 | 2859464 Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious. - Oscar Wilde

Yeah, I saw the Rock, too. Great flick if you take out Cage.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:34 | 2859582 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Calling out patriotism for what it is will likely invite a number of junks. Even people who can see lies all around them still cling to the lie of patriotism. It's a tough one to give up... Like voting.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:50 | 2859636 Gazooks
Gazooks's picture

...like theism 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2859309 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Do we really PAY for that crap?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859355 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

I bet everything is calculated in an Excel spreadsheet.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:07 | 2859728 Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla's picture

Sub USEmployment ()

 

'Find out the new "employment figures" by running the module below

GoalSeekElectionData

Msgbox "Now send this out to the NYTimes"

 

End Sub

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2859311 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Alright Tyler you're freaking me out.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859358 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

As always the devil is in the detail

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859379 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

So this time the detail is the devil?  ; o

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2859313 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Couldn't they just throw a 5 or 7 in to throw us off?

Maybe .66656667 or something?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:43 | 2859341 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Actually, my T.I. calc says .666666667

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:47 | 2859363 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Bernanke's calculator can only add zeros to the end of digits.  Some say that it is broken, but the Bearded one says, "It's fine, just fine."

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:47 | 2859364 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Gubmint employees are forbidden to go past the 8th decimal point.  It's a security thing.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859398 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

After 8 we need to charge you overtime.

 

signed,

Ministry of BS

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2859460 Jake88
Jake88's picture

duh. good thing you have a calculator.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:15 | 2859496 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Obama gave it to me.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2859315 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

lol rich

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859320 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Times Kiss of death for Hibernia.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1005/breaking25.html

 

We are now (since 1986 really) a vital conduit / Peg for the shadow banking system.

What did we do to deserve this weak servile leadership ?....oh yes we voted for it..................

The Icelanders took all the best women me thinks.

Before you could get 30 or 40 of them on a long boat.....now its 3 or 4 - anything more and you are in danger of sinking.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:41 | 2859325 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

LOL... funny shit.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:42 | 2859330 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I don't want to be a religious wacko but I think I'm seeing the devil.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:43 | 2859335 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

the  mark of  cain      these  people  better  be  careful   they  are  making  utter  fools of  themselves  

    the  whole   world  is  watching   and  the  whole  world  is  retching 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859336 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Biggest one month change in the unemployment rate in 29 yrs. Truly laughable if you're awake.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859404 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Obama will receive the Nobel Prize in Physics for this feat of levitation.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2859432 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Natural progression.....he's already got the one for peas.

 

Not really sure why.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859344 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

POS US Dollar is getting smoked.  US Communist leaders need another PM smackdown to keep the Pig from breaking 79.00

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859345 ekm
ekm's picture

 

Same as Open Ended QE, this is NOTHING LESS THAN PANIC.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859348 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

It's all 6's to me.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859350 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Numerology,

Sacred Geometry,

and

Astrology

=

What they go by and how they communicate.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2859452 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Because phones are dumb.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:51 | 2859643 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Guess they haven't see the game changing iPhone5???!(lol, good stuff tmosley)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859351 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Relax,

Its only the phone number for the bloke who "does gods work".

who is a "chosen one" himself.

Goes by the name of bielzibub or something, a bloke who works for him told me in strict confidence, so dont tell no one else, that he is a "bit of a cunt mate, well no infact, he is a lot of a cunt, and the best part of him ran down his mothers leg"

Keep it to yourself ZHers, woudnt want this getting out now....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2859494 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

IntheMix96, I gotta tell ya, since no-one else will:  You're a foul-mouthed, disgusting mouth-breathing knuckle-dragging moron.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859518 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Zeroavatar.

Cheers mate!!

:-)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:58 | 2859693 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Zeroavatar,

I couldnt resist this though.  How do you know I am fouled mouthed?  What the fuck gave you that idea?

You dont understand irony much do you?  You dont realise you will probably never hear me speak?

Unless you fucking missed it sunshine, we happen to be typing here boyo, and now you understand just what irony is eh?

Typing and speaking are not the same things.  And I get the feeling you dont like the word "cunt".  Well skip my posts then, no skin off my nose sweetheart.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 02:26 | 2862280 awakening
awakening's picture

I like it actually, beats 'political correctness' (read: 'baffle with bullshit') any day of the week.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859353 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I've got another aberration for you.  873K jobs added last month - the highest job growth in the last 30 years?  I can't believe that they have the gall to stand by these numbers.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859362 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

They just follow the orders of their dear leaders.  Who needs facts?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:43 | 2859856 notbot
notbot's picture

I'm totally speechless.  What a complete joke...look at the chart.  It's 2x anything in the last 4 yrs.  

https://buffer-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/50200b1b64fea2686900002f/7439bc1...

 

You had to know some misdirection was coming after that debate performance...should have guessed it'd be a gov stat.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859365 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Moscow expressed regret on Thursday over Romanian attempts to raise in the Council of Europe the issue of the restitution of 93 tons of gold evacuated to Russia during World War I, and called on Bucharest not to "stir up the past," Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said. "Romanian parliamentarians have more than once tried to internationalize this issue, which long ago lost its urgency," he said.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859381 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I divided it 9 times and got the same answer every time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859382 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Thanks Zerohedge.  There has always been a part of me that wanted to give the benefit of the doubt about these BLS numbers to the regular people that work there.  But no longer.  I call upon whistle blowers to come forward about this report.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2859406 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

good  idea   but   good   luck

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2859905 Doomer_Marx
Doomer_Marx's picture

Yeah, I do statistics in pharma. I've looked for something to show up in the numbers, never seen something so obvious. Real data isn't clean enough for this. There's got to be at least one guy/gal in there that does a few of their own checks to keep them honest. Then again, maybe not. I remember being right out of school and applying at a tobacco company for a biology lab job. They gave me the weirdest personality test. I have always been convenced they found me too honest to do tobacco genetic engineering for them (minored in genetics which seemed to be their true interest). Wouldn't be surprised they don't screen their applicants at the BLS the same way.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859383 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is the way the former Soviet Union ran their economy. Until it all collapsed. I can't believe anyone with any ounce of sense will believe these numbers. Hear me Jim Cramer? Anyone who does is a complete fool.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859386 valkir
valkir's picture

I think,time to get out of Dodge is almost here.This will not end well.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859387 Sgt. Oddball
Sgt. Oddball's picture

"Woe to you, Oh Earth and Sea, for the Devil sends the
beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short...
Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the
beast for it is a human number, its number is Six hundred and
sixty six."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrSiIqCpxB8

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:53 | 2859396 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

    WOW...one can only imagine next month's numbers:  everbody and their uncle will be working!!!

As a side-bar, Dr. Michael Hudson tears apart timmy, the geitner as the king of crooks on keiser report....just as I've alluded to many times on here.

   Buy physical gold and silver.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:54 | 2859399 kito
kito's picture

romney better start working the hair angle........his well coiffed 'do is about the only thing left for him.........

between the ongoing gulf buildup and now these shadazzling unemployment numbers................its all ovah' for mittens..............

 

i hear u.s debt was reconfigured, there was a huge accounting error discovered.............seems it was bushs fault................good news.............. the country is only in the hole for $10 bucks.................

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:15 | 2859498 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Let the new sheriff give it a shot......couldn't do any worse....that's all I'm saying.

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:18 | 2859508 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

-The sheriff is near!

-No dangummit, the sheriff is a niDONG

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859401 irie1029
irie1029's picture

My Obama phone number!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:56 | 2859403 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

how evil is that?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859405 Racer
Racer's picture

and if you are one of those ahem, 2/3 and only work on minimum wage for 1 hour, you are still employed aren't you!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:44 | 2859608 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Yep, gearing up to sell "Tickle me elmos(big birds?)" at the toy supermart store for $7.25 an hour has saved the economy!!!! Vive la capitalism, bitchez!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:58 | 2859421 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Tyler(s),
Priceless!

DavidC

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2859429 Michelle
Michelle's picture

It's no wonder American students are lagging in Math and Science, even our "leaders" don't know how to do it.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:17 | 2859766 unrulian
unrulian's picture

fuzzy math

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:00 | 2859435 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

these  people  better  work  on  their  lying  skills    in  some  respects    i  hope  they  do,  one  more failed  pinocchio  like  these  comical  efforts    and  we  go  to  war  within  short  days...  now  thats  a  winner

    vomitUS

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2859438 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

From the Arima X12 web page:

"Many seasonal and trend filter options"

Exactly.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:03 | 2859444 JimRogers
JimRogers's picture

Anyone able to recreate this math?

 

Which line items ought to be totalled to observe this malfeasance?

 

Cuz I couldn't see it...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2859447 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Once in college we had to do a household survey for a geography course. Some kids fudged their data and got caught through a random spot check done by the prof. They automatically failed the course and were put on academic probation.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:14 | 2859495 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Not double secret probation?

Bet those kids wound up at the BLS.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:17 | 2859502 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

...after which, they were hired for government work.

FIFY

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859506 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

too late...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:05 | 2859462 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Check out the participation rate for the 65yr and older crowd...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU01375379

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:06 | 2859465 Satan
Satan's picture

You will find me in the details...bitchez.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:08 | 2859469 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

You've finally gone and cracked the fake employment numbers code.  our congrats!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:08 | 2859470 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

This is as close as we're gonna get to a "smoking gun."  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:10 | 2859477 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I really am surprised no one here has mentioned this demonic fact....

This number here is an Obomb'a'nation.

The devil has devious ways folks, watch out strangers bearing gifts....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:11 | 2859480 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Goldman's Jan Hatzius on CNBC doing a reach around follow up for Obama on the BLS 7.8% print.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2859517 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If this number were true. Which undoubtedly it's not. How was the QE infinity justified by the Fed? There mandate is unemployment and price stability. Unemployment is now suddenly at a 44 month low.

This government is so out of control under Obama it is beyond compare.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:22 | 2859532 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

caught red-fucking-handed

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:27 | 2859551 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

and I thought the unemployment rate falling magically to 7.8% was the only odd statistical aberration I would see today...

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2859584 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

My wife and I were married on 6-6-66 and we're still married.  Does that mean we're a "statistical aberration"?r

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:34 | 2859585 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

My wife and I were married on 6-6-66 and we're still married.  Does that mean we're a "statistical aberration"?r

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:22 | 2859794 unrulian
unrulian's picture

she's cheating on you dude   .6666=2/3  you and her are 2 out of 3.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:48 | 2859630 Kina
Kina's picture

Heck their corruption is just so obvious.

The corrupt morons didn't even have the sense to change it so it wasn't totally obvious the numbers were simply invented.

 

Then again, honestly, is there anybody in any of the markets, media at all the believe any of these stats?

 

Of course not, the main stream media are just drones, functioning for whatever poltical outcome they are instructed. They may as well not exist for what benefit they are to society.

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:55 | 2860084 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

Lincoln channeling P.T. Barnum: "It is true that you may fool all of the people some of the time; you can even fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time."

The “market” moved positively and PMs sold off, clearly a sufficient number of devil worshipers believed the numbers and acted accordingly. The larger question isn’t whether people believed the numbers, for clearly many did, the question at hand is: How could they? The answer lies in the distressing fact that a majority of the voting public is still fine with voting for cultural Marxist max or cultural Marxist lite.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2859702 Uinta
Uinta's picture

I think Tyler is pulling your legs. The 873,000 employment number should be your first clue. What is that? It didn't come from the source he linked (neither does the 582K part time number). It certainly doesn't represent US employment in thousands since it would exceed the US population about two and a half times. It's not actual survey participants since the survey samples only 10,000 households. Maybe he is checking for guillible readers.

You folks need to review Tyler's disclaimer/full disclosure information again.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2859740 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

you need to spend 10 seconds learning how to use Google

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:23 | 2859798 Uinta
Uinta's picture

I'm all ears (or eyes since were reading). Show me how to find the 873,000 number. 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:34 | 2860027 Abednego
Abednego's picture

Cocky fucking idiot.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:28 | 2859811 Uinta
Uinta's picture

Never mind, found it. I guess I did need 10 seconds to learn

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2859744 bidaskspread
bidaskspread's picture

So does this mean time to short Apple? With the rate below 8% states start losing federal long term unemployment benefits, aka less IPADS sold.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:23 | 2859797 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Tylers!  You caught them red (no pun intended) - handed in a blatant lie!  Too bad no one other than on this page will ever see or hear about it...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:19 | 2859982 Zerohedge fan
Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:10 | 2860139 stiler
stiler's picture

The Catholic church is a part of the woman who rides the beast for sure. Roman church came from Babylon via I think Pergamos. Google Dave Hunt; good on the Catholic church. But 666 is the number of Antichrist's name; in Hebrew which has numeric equivalence for letters. By it you can buy and sell; feed your family. Now who here wouldn't take the number?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 15:16 | 2860668 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

They love the number of the beast, why do you think Apple stays at 666 so much?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 15:18 | 2860678 Mark_BC
Mark_BC's picture

Yesterday I bought some food and the total came to $6.66. True.

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