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Payrolls 'Miss' In September On Average

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/05/2012 08:26 -0400

We've discused how to forecast it, how to trade it, and its politicial implications, so just to tie it all up in a bow, here are the 'surprise' factors for September's NFP over the last 14 years - mostly a miss!

And for those curious what the average seasonal adjustment per month has been in the past decade, here is the answer:

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

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Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:26 | 2858785 CPL

Silver is up.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:27 | 2858789 JPM Hater001

You know that part right before the head exploded?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:33 | 2858802 flacon

Silver has to crash fist to take out the stops, and then it's up. Oh look - there is goes now.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:26 | 2858786 GetZeeGold

Dammit......so close.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:28 | 2858794 swissaustrian

Upward revision of August numbers + seasonal (election year) adjustments = better than expected

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:34 | 2858824 swissaustrian

Toldcha :D

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:29 | 2858795 ebworthen

It's bizarre to watch the "countdown" and "the number that could make or break the election".

So, 80,000 to 115,000 people are going to determine the election?

C'mon, it sucks, unemployment is ove 15%, and we hang on monthly numbers?

A joke.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:30 | 2858796 Haager

It's election year, so following the statistics it's a 95% chance to miss expectations.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:32 | 2858801 Yen Cross

R you f..ging serious? I think an ant crawled across the screen?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:32 | 2858805 HoofHearted

You have to be kidding. Unemployment down to 7.8%...only to be revised after the election. Someone tell me the labor force participation rate...please.

Damn Ministry of Truth. It seemed inevitable after Obama failing to show for the Tuesday debate. Lying bastards....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:33 | 2858809 Meesohaawnee

for the hundreth time. as far as trading. totally irrelevant.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:33 | 2858812 DOT

I remember Ms Expectations. She was really hot, but she was just a tease.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 08:48 | 2858947 Conchy Joe

Forget Main Street - it's all about maintaining the Sesame Street Sheeples now

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:03 | 2859029 Shizzmoney

It's ain't about the jobs....it's the incomes, stupid.

Part time workforce went from 8 million to 8.6 million (which could explain huge household survey gain and UE drop).

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2860036 LMAOLORI

Bogus Employment Report: +114k snip

Look what we have here!

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.

This is rather amusing; +114,000 is fewer than the working-age population growth in the household survey (206,000) and yet unemployment decreased.

Huh?

The household survey's unadjusted numbers, however, show some rather interesting figures, none of which make sense. "Not in labor force" increased by 386,000 while "employed" increased by 775,000 a net change off "unemployed and looking" of well north of a million people!

But -- giving up is not the same thing as finding a job.

much more at link

Payrolls 'Miss' In September On Average

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