This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.

So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.

Q.E.D.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:18 | 2859155 PrintingPress
PrintingPress's picture

Just printing jobs!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859178 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Yep, just change the denominator...

[Does this mean we're now counting those people waiting in line for their Obamaphone as "part-time employed"?]

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:23 | 2859214 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

yes exactly, as well as those hired to protest at rallies, and to stand in line for AAPL toys

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2859323 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

There is no doubt that a decline in unemployment is good for the economy. There is long way to go and many things to fix. The risks and dangers are present tambien.Sin But there is no doubt that the numbers provided are very positive this morning.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:20 | 2859781 hapless
hapless's picture

"There is no doubt that a decline in unemployment is good for the economy."

I believe you are confusing cause and effect here..

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:43 | 2859867 Element
Element's picture

Show this employment data against income tax receipts and wages data.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 14:42 | 2859914 notbot
notbot's picture

Hey Stock Tips, didn't you already post this comment.  Ctrl C, Ctrl V today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/obama-mission-accomplished#comm...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 14:42 | 2859916 notbot
notbot's picture

Good idea, I'm going to start posting all my comments twice too:

 

Hey Stock Tips, didn't you already post this comment.  Ctrl C, Ctrl V today?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/obama-mission-accomplished#comm...

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:02 | 2860104 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

You believe the data? You're a fucking idiot.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:18 | 2860171 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Wow, David Axelrod is on ZH!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:21 | 2860185 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL

(discharged in 1967 under Section 8 for consuming AGent Orange and Sterno)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:21 | 2859185 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Part time printers......WANTED!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:13 | 2859490 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

If you have three of those part time jobs, it is probably close to one full time job.  I am glad Obama pulled this one out.  I wonder why he waited so long to get the economy rolling again, isn't an election right around the corner? 

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:10 | 2859735 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Dey took er jerbs!!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:18 | 2859161 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Flip them burgers bitchez!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2859310 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So let me get this straight. If 12 million full time jobs were turned into 24 million part time jobs, America would no longer have any unemployment ?

What do they take us for ?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:20 | 2859169 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Benny's doin' a heckuva job...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:24 | 2859217 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yep, and there goes QE3.  He just hit his target.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:25 | 2859218 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

time to start raising rates!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:20 | 2859170 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Part time at 7 eleven =bullish= full blown recovery

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859175 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And is it me or people are already acting like animals in California due to the gas shortage?? Fights breaking everywhere at gas stations and lots of panic buying going on.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-increases-navy-force-in-mediterr...

Turkey increases navy force in Mediterranean

Turkey is reinforcing its position in the Mediterranean Sea following the escalation in tension along its border with Syria.

A number of warships and submarines have been sent to bases in the Mediterranean from the northwestern province of Gölcük where the main base of the Naval Forces is located. The ships were fully loaded with arms labeled "war load."

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:29 | 2859563 fuu
fuu's picture

Were you around in the 70's with the gas lines? It was everywhere, not just California.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:20 | 2859180 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

The October surprise.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859200 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Wait for the November surprise, it'll be even more hilarious.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:20 | 2859183 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

Data massagers jumped the shark this time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859198 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I get that feeling too.  Too obvious.  They are desperate.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2859739 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Yeah, but how many union thugs were hired at $56/hr to build that ramp used to jump the shark?

Winning!  DUH!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:20 | 2859184 PUD
PUD's picture

Part time workers are eligible for free cell phonez!! I be vote fo Obama!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:21 | 2859186 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

McDonalds, 7-11 and PayDay Loans part time jobs are booming!  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:16 | 2859499 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Don't forget Starbucks, that is some high quality production there.  My wife paid $4.50 for a pumpkin spice latte.  I think I need me one more of them part time jobs to pay for her coffee habit.  

 

 

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:21 | 2859189 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

If we all get 2 jobs it will go negative!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:21 | 2859195 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Lies, damn lies, and government statistics.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859196 Gilligan4Prez
Gilligan4Prez's picture

Really?  You want me to put that where?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859197 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Check out table B-1 NSA private payrolls contract by 400,000. NSA participation rate drops again. Y/Y Participation rate has dropped dramatically.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859199 max2205
max2205's picture

Retail sock gonna MOVE....  this has to be a top....suck'em in baby

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859203 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

So one Job is now counted as 2 Jobs.  One full time Job lost and 2 part time Jobs to replace the prior 1 Job.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:23 | 2859205 saints51
saints51's picture

service industry FTW!!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:23 | 2859207 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

that would be the rationale for the number....the reason for it is to keep Obama in office for a 2nd term. 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2859208 Monetary Lapse ...
Monetary Lapse of Reason's picture

Those folks that have been dropping off their 99 weeks have found it necessary to find some employment.. any employment.  Bullish!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:26 | 2859227 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Big factor, I agree.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:30 | 2860014 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

And the ones that had been working under the table are now on the books.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:21 | 2860187 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

You kinda make sense. Good catch!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:24 | 2859210 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

It don't matter.

Batter up! Pass the popcorn, let's get another beer, yeah!

No one reads the fine print anymore.

Especially those who don't even know who is running for election.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:23 | 2859211 PUD
Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:30 | 2859267 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Canadian numbers were a blowout, +52,100 vs expected +8,500.

But Self-Employed made up 33,800 of these "full-time" spots, so we'll see.  Wages dropped to 3.3% yoy versus 3.8% last month which also feeds into the "employed but crappy wages" theme.

Hard to see how Canada surges from here with Europe imploding, China slowing, US dead in the water, but WTF do I know.

Keep thinking about quitting this business and becoming a landscaper, working outdoors.  Nice.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:24 | 2859220 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

These jobs numbers are so good that I demand Ben Bernanke resign immediately due to his reckless abuse of monetary policy! sarc.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:25 | 2859223 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Are we now counting those guys who stand around in front of Home Depot and get hired for a day to rake your leaves?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:25 | 2859224 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Seasonal workers...Christmas crap has been in stores since Agust..Pretty soon, stores will have christmas crap year round..

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:26 | 2859229 BandGap
BandGap's picture

This happened in West Virginia years ago. In order for the state not to have to worst unemployment in the nation the governor hired a shitload of campaign workers for three weeks. It worked! West Virginia soared to 49th in unemployment (thank you Arch Moore) just ahead of Mississippi and Arch won the governor job. Right after the election these "jobs" went away.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:25 | 2859230 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Part time my ass. They made the whole damn thing up.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:26 | 2859233 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

What is not mentioned is that these part time jobs are second jobs for people, so they can afford groceries and gasoline.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:27 | 2859239 The big unzip
The big unzip's picture

QE is working so good that if the tripled it unemployment would not exist. Print faster you sums of bitchez

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:27 | 2859246 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

Added 190K jobs in July, UE stayed above 8.1%
Added 150K jobs in August, UE stayed above 8.1%
Added 114K jobs in September, UE rate plummets to 7.8%
Doesn't add up.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:37 | 2859844 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

That is because you are too dumb to understand Obamamath.  Obamamath is something mere mortals are incapable of understanding.  Let us bask in his ever warming glow and praise the Great One for saving us from ourselves.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:30 | 2859256 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

the Socialist MIRACLE rolls on!  Its amazing what  one can accomplish when one controls the press.

FORWARD SOVIET! HAIL PRAVADA!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:31 | 2859266 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Livin the dream.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:39 | 2859851 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

So the number of unemployed do not actually matter, but those that count the number of unemployed are those that matter?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:30 | 2859263 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

The acid test will be government tax receipts and how the percentage of the gov budget that needs to be borrowed changes. By replacing full time high paying jobs with part one jobs, there's no way tax receipts can increase, all else being equal.

Got math?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:32 | 2859273 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

The acid test will be government tax receipts and how the percentage of the gov budget that needs to be borrowed changes. By replacing full time high paying jobs with part one jobs, there's no way tax receipts can increase, all else being equal.

 

Makes no difference, this is about power, not a bunch of piss ants working.  God made the Fed for a reason....

FORWARD SOVIET!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:39 | 2859307 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Touché

Wake up 'blue pill' brethren!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2859343 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Again, it's the income, stupid.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:02 | 2859711 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is the dirty little secret of the math.

If you replace fulltime workers at high pay with multiple part time workers, TAX REVS PLUMMET, because those workers shift to the lower tax rate.  Even if the total money earned doesn't change, the tax revs on it crash.

All the deficit projections are bullshit and becoming even more bullshit.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:33 | 2859275 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The declining economy is becoming more and more obvious, even to the sheeple.

The vacant stores and houses. The empty parking lots at Home Depot and others.

Food and gas prices rising rapidly. Very few families are unaffected by lay-offs and

cut-backs in hours worked. The BS of the BLS is not fooling many. Once the public

starts mistrusting Gov. data, it's not long before they start mistrusting the Gov.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:34 | 2859280 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

They play this game at their own peril. In the end, the biggest loser is the goverment and its tax collectors. Uncle Scam is going to need new revenues if he plans on people believing in his Ponzi much longer.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:34 | 2859283 The Big Ern
The Big Ern's picture

What is "employed for 'economic reasons?'" Everyone's employed for economic reasons. That phrase makes absolutely no sense. 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:33 | 2859284 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Don't forget about the businesses that drop their folks to less than 40 hrs a week and bring in part-timers to avoid health insurance costs. POOF! Numbers up! 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:33 | 2859285 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

This quote from Denninger says it all:

"This is rather amusing; +114,000 is fewer than the working-age population growth in the household survey (206,000) and yet unemployment decreased.

Huh?"

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:45 | 2859347 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Exactly. The old rule of thumb was you must create 200K+ jobs just to keep up with number of kids reaching workforce age.

But I will not go back to the Ministry of Love for reindoctrination. So I'm keepin my mouth shut.

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2859321 fuu
fuu's picture

So no more QE?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:46 | 2859359 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Target for ending QE is when a cup of coffee costs $100.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:55 | 2859400 fuu
fuu's picture

Oh...11/3/12 it is then.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2859324 PapSmear
PapSmear's picture

Who needs to create jobs when you can just print them. 

Forward 

Obama 2012

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:47 | 2859367 edifice
edifice's picture

See? We're actually adding manufacturing jobs... McDonalds is manufacturing, right? Manufacturing burgers? Actually, I made a pretty good return on McDonalds. Rode it up from $40-something to $93 and made ever-increasing dividends during that time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2859378 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over

 

U6 is 14.7%

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:52 | 2859659 edifice
edifice's picture

EXACTLY! Thank you for pointing this out! The media needs to stop reporting U-3, and start reporting U-6. Been saying this for a long time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 09:50 | 2859380 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

May I point out that the survey method is the easiest method to cheat.  All you have to do is survey more than your usual  quantity, then throw out the ones not needed until you get the answer you want.

JUST LIKE THE MARKETS, ITS ALL FRAUDULENT.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2859433 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The last dose of positive news before the collapse.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-hourly-october-03-2012/

 

This should be the last push up as was noted a few days ago.  What an atrocious mess this is.  It's going to be a living hell in the months and years ahead.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:22 | 2859531 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Learning from the Japanese who have kept the unemployment rate under 5% for 2 decades.  Meanwhile, nearly 40% (and growing) of Japanese workers are part time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:30 | 2859567 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

Liesman say fuck you to Rick Santelli....@ 8:20 on this video listen to becky then liesman

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000120507&play=1

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:08 | 2859729 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

Excellent catch

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:44 | 2859588 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

In a a nation of retirees, we must check the Employment to population ratio, other statistics are more or less irrelevant. In 1960 there were more than 5 workers per retiree in the USA. By 2007, that ratio had dropped to only 3.3 to 1, and by 2032, that ratio will have plummeted to 2 to 1 !!!

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2859605 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

People are throwing in the towel and taking whatever they can get now.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:44 | 2859615 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

I have noticed there are more 75 year old bag packers at the grocery store.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:17 | 2859763 pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Obama busy hiring part-time campaign workers for re-election push...

Look out for cliff after election...no matter who gets elected...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:17 | 2859765 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Well, we lost three guys (including me) on a contract expiration 9/30.

We are not supposed to pick up another until 12/12.

Plus, there are about 14K jobs at risk in this state alone.

I think the U6 is off, too. I think real U is about 20%.

This is why you save fiats in cans under the house, for a rainy day.

But, hey, maybe I qualify for an OPhone now!

Too bad the little stalin won't get my vote.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:08 | 2860127 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Seriously? I wish a giant metor would just hit this shit hole of a plant and put us all out of our fucking misery.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:08 | 2860128 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

PRAVDA sez, "just be good citizen and buy stocks"

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:43 | 2860253 boh knows
boh knows's picture

Election jobs! Gotta love the election cycle. Short term optimisim will lead to helliacious q1 2013.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 14:03 | 2860344 elamar
elamar's picture

It looks like sharp increases in temp employment is a sign of worsening employment as people transition from full time jobs to temp jobs and the is followed by a dramatic decline in temp jobs. Is this number not a one time aberration that will be corrected next month?  It looks so historically.... Got it its election jobs.

 

 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:57 | 2861234 puckles
puckles's picture

This was intended as a response to those who posted re the increase in gas prices in CA, much earlier in the thread.  A bunch of refineries have gone offline, for whatever reason, in CA.  There is no indication that there will be massive increases elsewhere, and this is a temporary situation.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 10:17 | 2862580 Charvo
Charvo's picture

I wonder if unemployment is actually lower than the reported numbers.  ADP processes paychecks for some of the largest employers in the USA.  Paychex processes paychecks for the smaller businesses.  Both are near all-time highs.  One can attribute this to easy money chasing stocks.  However, there are many stocks who have gotten trashed and aren't near their highs.  How can these companies, ADP and Paychex, be doing so well stock-wise when unemployment is so high.  I think ADP employment gains are a better gauge of what has been happening to the employment situation in America.  The reason why I think it is more reliable is that the BLS is just a survey of a few households.  ADP actually takes data from the companies they handle paychecks for.  ADP can actually get sued for sending out garbage data to mislead.  I've never heard of the BLS being sued for faulty data.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!