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Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement
We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.
So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.
Q.E.D.
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Just printing jobs!
Yep, just change the denominator...
[Does this mean we're now counting those people waiting in line for their Obamaphone as "part-time employed"?]
yes exactly, as well as those hired to protest at rallies, and to stand in line for AAPL toys
There is no doubt that a decline in unemployment is good for the economy. There is long way to go and many things to fix. The risks and dangers are present tambien.Sin But there is no doubt that the numbers provided are very positive this morning.
"There is no doubt that a decline in unemployment is good for the economy."
I believe you are confusing cause and effect here..
Show this employment data against income tax receipts and wages data.
Hey Stock Tips, didn't you already post this comment. Ctrl C, Ctrl V today?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/obama-mission-accomplished#comm...
Good idea, I'm going to start posting all my comments twice too:
Hey Stock Tips, didn't you already post this comment. Ctrl C, Ctrl V today?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-05/obama-mission-accomplished#comm...
You believe the data? You're a fucking idiot.
Wow, David Axelrod is on ZH!
LOL
(discharged in 1967 under Section 8 for consuming AGent Orange and Sterno)
Part time printers......WANTED!
If you have three of those part time jobs, it is probably close to one full time job. I am glad Obama pulled this one out. I wonder why he waited so long to get the economy rolling again, isn't an election right around the corner?
Dey took er jerbs!!!!
Flip them burgers bitchez!
So let me get this straight. If 12 million full time jobs were turned into 24 million part time jobs, America would no longer have any unemployment ?
What do they take us for ?
Benny's doin' a heckuva job...
Yep, and there goes QE3. He just hit his target.
time to start raising rates!
Part time at 7 eleven =bullish= full blown recovery
And is it me or people are already acting like animals in California due to the gas shortage?? Fights breaking everywhere at gas stations and lots of panic buying going on.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-increases-navy-force-in-mediterr...
Turkey increases navy force in Mediterranean
Turkey is reinforcing its position in the Mediterranean Sea following the escalation in tension along its border with Syria.
A number of warships and submarines have been sent to bases in the Mediterranean from the northwestern province of Gölcük where the main base of the Naval Forces is located. The ships were fully loaded with arms labeled "war load."
Were you around in the 70's with the gas lines? It was everywhere, not just California.
The October surprise.
Wait for the November surprise, it'll be even more hilarious.
Data massagers jumped the shark this time.
I get that feeling too. Too obvious. They are desperate.
Yeah, but how many union thugs were hired at $56/hr to build that ramp used to jump the shark?
Winning! DUH!
Part time workers are eligible for free cell phonez!! I be vote fo Obama!
McDonalds, 7-11 and PayDay Loans part time jobs are booming!
Don't forget Starbucks, that is some high quality production there. My wife paid $4.50 for a pumpkin spice latte. I think I need me one more of them part time jobs to pay for her coffee habit.
If we all get 2 jobs it will go negative!
Lies, damn lies, and government statistics.
Really? You want me to put that where?
Check out table B-1 NSA private payrolls contract by 400,000. NSA participation rate drops again. Y/Y Participation rate has dropped dramatically.
Retail sock gonna MOVE.... this has to be a top....suck'em in baby
So one Job is now counted as 2 Jobs. One full time Job lost and 2 part time Jobs to replace the prior 1 Job.
service industry FTW!!!
that would be the rationale for the number....the reason for it is to keep Obama in office for a 2nd term.
Those folks that have been dropping off their 99 weeks have found it necessary to find some employment.. any employment. Bullish!
Big factor, I agree.
And the ones that had been working under the table are now on the books.
You kinda make sense. Good catch!
It don't matter.
Batter up! Pass the popcorn, let's get another beer, yeah!
No one reads the fine print anymore.
Especially those who don't even know who is running for election.
Canadian Unemployment Rate (Sep) M/M 7.4% vs. Exp. 7.3% Stupid Canuks!
Canadian numbers were a blowout, +52,100 vs expected +8,500.
But Self-Employed made up 33,800 of these "full-time" spots, so we'll see. Wages dropped to 3.3% yoy versus 3.8% last month which also feeds into the "employed but crappy wages" theme.
Hard to see how Canada surges from here with Europe imploding, China slowing, US dead in the water, but WTF do I know.
Keep thinking about quitting this business and becoming a landscaper, working outdoors. Nice.
These jobs numbers are so good that I demand Ben Bernanke resign immediately due to his reckless abuse of monetary policy! sarc.
Are we now counting those guys who stand around in front of Home Depot and get hired for a day to rake your leaves?
Seasonal workers...Christmas crap has been in stores since Agust..Pretty soon, stores will have christmas crap year round..
This happened in West Virginia years ago. In order for the state not to have to worst unemployment in the nation the governor hired a shitload of campaign workers for three weeks. It worked! West Virginia soared to 49th in unemployment (thank you Arch Moore) just ahead of Mississippi and Arch won the governor job. Right after the election these "jobs" went away.
Part time my ass. They made the whole damn thing up.
What is not mentioned is that these part time jobs are second jobs for people, so they can afford groceries and gasoline.
QE is working so good that if the tripled it unemployment would not exist. Print faster you sums of bitchez
Added 190K jobs in July, UE stayed above 8.1%
Added 150K jobs in August, UE stayed above 8.1%
Added 114K jobs in September, UE rate plummets to 7.8%
Doesn't add up.
That is because you are too dumb to understand Obamamath. Obamamath is something mere mortals are incapable of understanding. Let us bask in his ever warming glow and praise the Great One for saving us from ourselves.
the Socialist MIRACLE rolls on! Its amazing what one can accomplish when one controls the press.
Livin the dream.
So the number of unemployed do not actually matter, but those that count the number of unemployed are those that matter?
The acid test will be government tax receipts and how the percentage of the gov budget that needs to be borrowed changes. By replacing full time high paying jobs with part one jobs, there's no way tax receipts can increase, all else being equal.
Got math?
The acid test will be government tax receipts and how the percentage of the gov budget that needs to be borrowed changes. By replacing full time high paying jobs with part one jobs, there's no way tax receipts can increase, all else being equal.
FORWARD SOVIET!
Touché
Wake up 'blue pill' brethren!
Again, it's the income, stupid.
This is the dirty little secret of the math.
If you replace fulltime workers at high pay with multiple part time workers, TAX REVS PLUMMET, because those workers shift to the lower tax rate. Even if the total money earned doesn't change, the tax revs on it crash.
All the deficit projections are bullshit and becoming even more bullshit.
The declining economy is becoming more and more obvious, even to the sheeple.
The vacant stores and houses. The empty parking lots at Home Depot and others.
Food and gas prices rising rapidly. Very few families are unaffected by lay-offs and
cut-backs in hours worked. The BS of the BLS is not fooling many. Once the public
starts mistrusting Gov. data, it's not long before they start mistrusting the Gov.
They play this game at their own peril. In the end, the biggest loser is the goverment and its tax collectors. Uncle Scam is going to need new revenues if he plans on people believing in his Ponzi much longer.
What is "employed for 'economic reasons?'" Everyone's employed for economic reasons. That phrase makes absolutely no sense.
Don't forget about the businesses that drop their folks to less than 40 hrs a week and bring in part-timers to avoid health insurance costs. POOF! Numbers up!
This quote from Denninger says it all:
"This is rather amusing; +114,000 is fewer than the working-age population growth in the household survey (206,000) and yet unemployment decreased.
Huh?"
Exactly. The old rule of thumb was you must create 200K+ jobs just to keep up with number of kids reaching workforce age.
But I will not go back to the Ministry of Love for reindoctrination. So I'm keepin my mouth shut.
So no more QE?
Target for ending QE is when a cup of coffee costs $100.
Oh...11/3/12 it is then.
Who needs to create jobs when you can just print them.
Forward
Obama 2012
See? We're actually adding manufacturing jobs... McDonalds is manufacturing, right? Manufacturing burgers? Actually, I made a pretty good return on McDonalds. Rode it up from $40-something to $93 and made ever-increasing dividends during that time.
The U6 unemployment rate counts not only people without work seeking full-time employment (the more familiar U-3 rate), but also counts "marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons." Note that some of these part-time workers counted as employed by U-3 could be working as little as an hour a week. And the "marginally attached workers" include those who have gotten discouraged and stopped looking, but still want to work. The age considered for this calculation is 16 years and over
U6 is 14.7%
EXACTLY! Thank you for pointing this out! The media needs to stop reporting U-3, and start reporting U-6. Been saying this for a long time.
May I point out that the survey method is the easiest method to cheat. All you have to do is survey more than your usual quantity, then throw out the ones not needed until you get the answer you want.
JUST LIKE THE MARKETS, ITS ALL FRAUDULENT.
The last dose of positive news before the collapse.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-hourly-october-03-2012/
This should be the last push up as was noted a few days ago. What an atrocious mess this is. It's going to be a living hell in the months and years ahead.
Learning from the Japanese who have kept the unemployment rate under 5% for 2 decades. Meanwhile, nearly 40% (and growing) of Japanese workers are part time.
Liesman say fuck you to Rick Santelli....@ 8:20 on this video listen to becky then liesman
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000120507&play=1
Excellent catch
In a a nation of retirees, we must check the Employment to population ratio, other statistics are more or less irrelevant. In 1960 there were more than 5 workers per retiree in the USA. By 2007, that ratio had dropped to only 3.3 to 1, and by 2032, that ratio will have plummeted to 2 to 1 !!!
People are throwing in the towel and taking whatever they can get now.
I have noticed there are more 75 year old bag packers at the grocery store.
Obama busy hiring part-time campaign workers for re-election push...
Look out for cliff after election...no matter who gets elected...
Well, we lost three guys (including me) on a contract expiration 9/30.
We are not supposed to pick up another until 12/12.
Plus, there are about 14K jobs at risk in this state alone.
I think the U6 is off, too. I think real U is about 20%.
This is why you save fiats in cans under the house, for a rainy day.
But, hey, maybe I qualify for an OPhone now!
Too bad the little stalin won't get my vote.
Seriously? I wish a giant metor would just hit this shit hole of a plant and put us all out of our fucking misery.
PRAVDA sez, "just be good citizen and buy stocks"
Election jobs! Gotta love the election cycle. Short term optimisim will lead to helliacious q1 2013.
It looks like sharp increases in temp employment is a sign of worsening employment as people transition from full time jobs to temp jobs and the is followed by a dramatic decline in temp jobs. Is this number not a one time aberration that will be corrected next month? It looks so historically.... Got it its election jobs.
This was intended as a response to those who posted re the increase in gas prices in CA, much earlier in the thread. A bunch of refineries have gone offline, for whatever reason, in CA. There is no indication that there will be massive increases elsewhere, and this is a temporary situation.
I wonder if unemployment is actually lower than the reported numbers. ADP processes paychecks for some of the largest employers in the USA. Paychex processes paychecks for the smaller businesses. Both are near all-time highs. One can attribute this to easy money chasing stocks. However, there are many stocks who have gotten trashed and aren't near their highs. How can these companies, ADP and Paychex, be doing so well stock-wise when unemployment is so high. I think ADP employment gains are a better gauge of what has been happening to the employment situation in America. The reason why I think it is more reliable is that the BLS is just a survey of a few households. ADP actually takes data from the companies they handle paychecks for. ADP can actually get sued for sending out garbage data to mislead. I've never heard of the BLS being sued for faulty data.