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Spot The Odd One Out

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As a job-safe Big Bird might have said "one of these things is not like the other" as we look at the performance difference between financials and industrials in the new normal. While short-term newsflow keeps banks to'ing-and-fro'ing, the inevitable truth is that it appears it is different this time - and not in a good way.

 

We have had crises before...

 

but this one 'looks' different...

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:50 | 2859633 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Manufacturing is so 20th century.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2859668 Precious
Precious's picture

The Romneys are inviting Big Bird over for Thanksgiving. 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:45 | 2861205 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Big Bird will eat him.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:54 | 2859671 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Shadow banking is the new growth industry.  Until it isn't.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:07 | 2859727 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Banks are parasie=tes now - depending on others who created value and wealth.  They no lopnger serve to help allocate capital to productivve endeavors, they suck productive endeavors dry.  You can only slice, dice, repackage, resell  and skim off fees so many times off EXISTING assets.  It's liek saying a casino is somehow productive for society as a whole.

But - for now - the smoke and mirrors continue (funded by the masses through government - whether government has their consent or not)

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 18:18 | 2861283 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

I'm sorry for posting this as it is offtipic, and innapropriate, but it is time I begin asking around for help, b/c I really do need it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ-OHqCbrZk

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:13 | 2859748 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's a FIRE world.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:17 | 2859768 centerline
centerline's picture

FIRE is going to take on a whole new meaning soon enough.  This has to be one of the best charts I have seen in a long time.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:28 | 2859810 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I'm slow roasting a big bird.  Dark meat anyone?

 

Ok. ok...thats a bit non PC

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 16:29 | 2860920 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

D'ya ever stop to think?

The cunts are keeping all the profits for themselves - golden handshakes, bonuses, expenses (lear jets, hookers, coke and blow), options, provisions, golden parachutes, siphoned out the back door, whatever - and the shareholders get jack.

No wonder their SPs are sideways. Huh? 

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2859691 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

See Ben?? The fucking QE is working FLAWLESSLY!!!

Black line from '09 proves it's all FED all the time..

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:05 | 2859723 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Yeah m8. Here in the UK it's deffo a barbarous relic. Banking's where it's at..............oh, wait.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:50 | 2859637 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SDS volume skyrocketing.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:00 | 2859699 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

There was a 4:1 reverse split

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:35 | 2859834 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Cool. Since one of my banksters charges me 20 cents PER SHARE , i can finally buy some. 1250shares at the close so i pay the minimum of $250.

This was my PERSONAL black swan. I USUALLY do very well with sds.

Now , i have reasons to be with these types of banksters, anyone want o guess?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:40 | 2859854 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The decay on 2X and 3X short ETF's is terrible. If I didn't know better I'm guessing the folks running those funds take that money and somehow magically use it against you and take "rebalancing" at the end of the day. Be real careful using that stuff.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:51 | 2859888 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

The trick there is to short them.  If you want long, short the 3x short etf for example.  That way the decay works for you.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:51 | 2859642 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Dow as at 887 in 83 and now at 13636. It resembles to Fed balance sheet. http://www.freefdawatchlist.com

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:50 | 2859647 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So will the mean reversion be industrial to bank levels or vice versa?  S&P double top might lead me to believe the former, but Bernanking might pull the latter.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2859669 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Looks to me like the banks have plenty of support...at about 300...and then again at about 0.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:55 | 2859681 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The support of a bra with overstretched elastic holding up a fat old lady's boobs perhaps?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:58 | 2859690 knukles
knukles's picture

Hey, that's a little too close to home, Doc....

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:18 | 2859774 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Sounds like you just went to Walmart.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2859677 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Either way, gold will have the same store of value.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2859689 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This pig will roll over eventually regardless of what the Bernank does. Japan is our model there is no escaping it.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2859695 knukles
knukles's picture

BINGO!
Japan, the New Normal

 

Eatchur sushi.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2859717 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

It's a global village now.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:09 | 2859733 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

With an annual income and standard of living quickly approaching that of your typical thrid world shit hole.  Welcome to the new global serfdom.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:57 | 2859907 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Global shanty town with McCastles on the hills.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:54 | 2860085 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

We are Japan!

... minus the exports.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2859697 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Isn't the real point of QEing to entice the sheeple back into equities (I refuse to use the word *market*)? Until that happen, banksters have no one to sell to. *If* it ever does, and the banksters are able to unload, we'll see our *correction* and *they* will buy up the entire world on the cheap, the very cheap.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:00 | 2859704 csmith
csmith's picture

...but Bernanking might pull the latter.

 

Of course he will. Everything he's doing is aimed at reflating the value of failed assets from the last cycle. What he CAN'T do (without causing serious inflation) is bring the income generated by those assets back to previous levels.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:21 | 2859789 centerline
centerline's picture

Anything the CBs pull is only going to be smoke and mirrors.  Animal spirits, hopium, and brainwashed masses will eventually have a "come to Jesus" moment with reality.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:52 | 2859655 duo
duo's picture

Aren't there two banks, and a retail chain that gets a third of its sales from EBT cards in the "Industrials" index?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:06 | 2859694 hedgeless_horseman
Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:53 | 2859657 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

So? Stocks are going to keep going up because the dollar will keep devaluing to make up for this.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:13 | 2859743 toady
toady's picture

Out of all the shit they say about 'the market' that's the one thing that makes sense to me. The dollar is worth less and less, so it cost more and more to buy stocks.

When gas is $5 a gallon, apple will be $1000, when gas is $10, apple will be $2000, all the way up until the bus reaches the end of the line and everyone is forced to get off.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:26 | 2859795 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Yes, I'm beginning to realize that is the case. Even though QE directly targets treasuries, MBS, etc, owning those things doesn't create any profit. QE bails out dealers so they can continue market manipulation more effectively, the drawback being the market is worth more and more in ever more devalued dollars. I don't think they're interested in pushing interest rates any lower. Those will just hold. So stocks will go up like precious metals until the time the system vaporizes.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:52 | 2859658 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

makes you wonder what the chart would look like when the derivatives start imploding.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:52 | 2859660 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL 50DMA test #2: let it kiss $656

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:01 | 2859709 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

until it is needed monday to hold up the indexes

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:52 | 2859661 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

so, moral of the story is to buy banks, since its impossible for industrials to fall.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:54 | 2859665 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We became a service economy, and by "service", I mean we service the bankers like a hooker would for a $1000 bill.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:54 | 2859667 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

So what you are saying is buy the banks right? No.....? The next four months are going to be interesting.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2859687 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

That's NOT what Kyle Bass said.  You could GO to the bank and get a bunch of nickels, though.  That might be good.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:01 | 2859705 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I was being sarcastic. The only thing I want to see is for the banks to continue their slide to zero.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:55 | 2859674 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Notwithstanding... the thieving banksters get the biggest salaries...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2859679 mjorden
mjorden's picture

The right one. did I win?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2859680 Zola
Zola's picture

Actually its head and shoulders of death. Targeting 0. Would make sense in a communist country as all equity is worth 0

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2859698 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Great observation, it is a head and shoulders pattern.  Best way to short the banks is to buy gold and silver.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2859683 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Mark-to-unicorn-to-bonus is one helluva drug

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:56 | 2859684 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

American banks can no longer sucker the world to buy their "shit-breathing" products.  

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:06 | 2859714 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What happened to your " big after the close news" three days ago?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:19 | 2859773 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

NATO: Turkey/Syria.  Turkey is already calling for a no-fly zone over Syria.   Lots of the news there is not being reported to spotlight Obama rally today

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:14 | 2859686 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Are we going to be beaten over the head with Big Bird 2 Eternity ?     When do we get a president who will put on his Pilgrim clothes and chop the Thanksgiving turkey's head off on a stump in the rose garden ? Celebrate our fucking traditions ! Pardon my French !   I'm sick of wimpy presidents that do the wimpy bidding of the MSM !  I want a MFing  president who KIX ASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:15 | 2859754 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Don't hold your breath.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:35 | 2859835 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Wouldn't you like to see Big Bird hold the turkey's head down on the stump .... and the whole Sesame Street gang applauding .... and later helping the first lady prepare the dinner with the white house staff .... all dressed in period costumes .... teaching history to our polyglot urchins !      We get Jimmy Carter pardoning a turkey .... a turkey should pardon Jimmy Carter .... well, that's for another day !  Where's our next Teddy Roosevelt !

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:40 | 2859848 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Somewhere past the looming valley of the shadow of death...if we are lucky.  Its for damn sure that neither the Choom Wagon nor Rafalca are going to carry us there.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:36 | 2860034 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Yeah that's what we need.  4 more years of a further expansion of warmongering.  As if Obama hasn't expanded even further our wartime adventures.  Escalation of the war in Afghanistan (which are going to lose) and further expansion of covert wars in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen along with new adventures in Mali and other African hot spots. 

US is playing the 'Great Game' only this time it is against China as we race for control of resources and geopolitical leverage.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2859703 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Paper-pushing does indeed pay when you own CONgress and can print money. - FAIL.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:01 | 2859708 blindman
blindman's picture

http://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumps-1-5-x-us-annual-silver-product...
Cartel Dumps 1.5 x US Annual Silver Production on Futures Market in 5 Minutes on NFP Release
October 5, 2012 By The Doc

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2859721 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

That black line propped up in the golden circle looks like El Cid...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:06 | 2859725 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

The banks need to get cracking with offshoring production to lower cost countries.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:48 | 2860284 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

like bayview loan servicing:  operations in uraguay and philiipines...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:09 | 2859730 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

One of these days we will wake up and this will all be over.  I have no idea when, when, or how, but I tell you one thing, I will be relieved when this does come to head.  It'll be like someone lifting a weight off our collective shoulders.

And it is up to us to stop any single one of the heartless bastards who put us here in the first place, from having absolutely anything to do with the new paradigm.  Whatever it may be.

We owe it to our kids, all of us

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:15 | 2859755 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The way this thing is going we'll more than likely wake up dead.....on a long enough timeline.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2859737 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

I'd love to see the links in that chain laid out end-to-end leading all the way back to TARP/stimulus.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 11:11 | 2859742 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

The Zimbabwe stock market have performed better, Bernanke can do more than that.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:00 | 2859920 Xue
Xue's picture

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=food%20stamp

This chart is better than every words.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:24 | 2859997 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

interesting how the FED's balance sheet peaked in January/February this year and has been slowiy shrinking since then.  end of the bond rally in sight?

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2860041 Crispy
Crispy's picture

Huh, well actually producing stuff that people need makes money....go figure

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 12:40 | 2860048 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Huh, well actually producing stuff that people need makes fiat....go figure"

------------------------------------------------------------------

Fixed.  But yes, +1 for you.  Now about the purchasing power of that fiat...

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:12 | 2860150 Crispy
Crispy's picture

fair enough...lol

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:44 | 2860258 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

yes, the poosr common stock holders....try putting up a chart of relative bond performance.     there are some 'investors'  who simply do not lose, they just change the rules.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 13:50 | 2860287 Burticus
Burticus's picture

Save the banks and destroy the rest of the economy.  Mission accomplished.

This chart would look even better (worse) measured by a stable yardstick, the universally-loved barbaric relic of more honest times.

Fri, 10/05/2012 - 17:51 | 2861220 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Homework for banksters.

Upper chart: Do you see a pattern? Add the missing arrow and text to the rightmost box.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!