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The Strangest Number In Today's Jobs Number
While we already presented the explanation for the dramatic drop in today's unemployment report (almost entirely driven by the surge in part-time jobs for economic reasons, hardly a thing to be proud of as more and more full time jobs, especially those on Wall Street, are a thing of the past, while the transition to a part-time worker society has been documented extensively in the past here), there is another number that is by far the most perplexing in today's NFP dataset: that showing the employment of workers in the 20-24 year age category (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted). See if you can spot the outlier in the chart below.
The chart above shows the sequential change in Non-Seasonally Adjusted jobs for the 20-24 year old cohort (aka those who normally are in student age) into the month of September going back to 1980, as represented by the Household Survey.
We have shown just 22 years of data, but believe us: in this data set, the September NSA jobs change has been negative every single year since the beginning of data collection. Except for 2012 (and considering the surge in temp-jobs for economic reasons, one can be certain that if indeed correct, all these young people obtained primarily part-time jobs, if any).
Ok, what about the Seasonal Adjusted: after all that Arima-X-12 data fudger should be put to good use. Well, here is the data:
Cutting to the chase: the September surge in Seasonally Adjusted jobs give to 20-24 year old is the biggest in decades. This is on top of the only positive NSA increase in 20-24 year old jobs in history.
How does one explain this stunning discovery? RBS's Richard Tang, who noted it first, proved one explanation:
While we cannot be certain, the back-to-back gains in September 2011 and September 2012 could reflect a decision by younger workers to remain in the workforce rather than pursue a higher education. Given how difficult it is to get a job in the current environment, more young workers may be choosing to hold on to the jobs they already have. In fact, this does seem to be the case during periods of weakness/recessions. The last time we had back-to-back September gains in employment in the 20-24 year old cohort even approaching what we have seen in September 2011 and 2012 was in the 2000-2001 period. Prior to that, it was in 1984-85. In any case, the unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds plummeted from 13.9% in August to 12.4% in September, the lowest reading since November 2008. The 1.5 percentage point drop in September matched the sixth-largest monthly drop going back to 1948.
A valient effort but one thing remains outstanding: the record amount of student loans outstanding, and defaults, which as we explained last Friday, is indicative of one thing: everyone is doing their best to avoid the labor market in this worst possible time for jobs and is hiding instead in the "safety" of a Federally funded college education. This explains not only the record amount of student loans outstanding, well over $1 trillion in total, and over $900 billion just Federally funded.
So somehow in September, in addition to all the other discrepancies in the labor report, we have one more to add: that of the Schrodinger Student: one who is both in college and piling up student loans on one hand, yet on the other hand entering the work force in the month of September, a time when historically every single month in recorded history has seen an exit from the labor force for the 20-24 year old cohort.
We'll leave this one for Jack Welch to figure out.
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He started ALL of this.
Why not bring back Dr Kissenger?
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"Peace is our mission"
Think LBJ who started all this.Remember those nightly VC casualty counts on TV.
We killed the whole population so many times it had to be expressed 10 to the.times.
what do they care. they have their i worlds bitchez!
High school students aged 20-24 are considered workers as anyone who still has trouble adding 1+1 is not going to school for fun.
FOXNews.com asked of the unemployment rate today, "Is the number real?".
My answer:
About as "real" as the booming economy and surging markets during the Bush Jr. years.
Look, folks - economic statistics and economic activity both can be manufactured or massaged.
Sure, 7.6% NSA U-3 may not appear to be "real", but were the boom times brought about by the Baby Boomers' accumulation and reliance upon mountains of debt any more "real"? Was the spike in home prices in the early 2000s "real"?
We have a "new normal" economic reality in this country. And it's likely more real than we've seen in decades.
Really.
It's gonna get even more real if they don't find something to replace this unreality bought with debt.
Pointless- Are you satisfied with the responses above? Did you buy your moms their phones yet? Did you come into cash today? I see you haven't sold your computer yet... Not too late to man up and take care of your family.
I have a friend whose mom works from home and makes these 20-24 year olds look silly.
She makes them wear gimp outfits while she spanks them?
Does she make $64,584.32/month? You forgot the linky.
i can find pinocchios nose, but why cant i find pinocchio?
That is not his nose. Look higher to see it.
THINGS TO COME AND THINGS THAT WILL COME TO PASS:
"Mummy, may I have a bit more porridge, it is frightfully cold outside, and besides, those dreaded long lines at the subsistence office do tend to move rather slowly as the people linger about once inside the warm government office just to capture a bit of it's glowing heat before exiting back out into the frozen air".
Oh no don't tell me. If they start counting going to college as working part time I'm going to have to drop out. Although I was astonished when the professor asked my class about how many of them were working a day job and most or about 3/4 raised their hands.
That's my boots on the ground report. The article is likely correct.
Got a few Russian girls in the class and I was somewhat curious what their job might be.
They live 20 of them in an apartment and sell trinkets in Myrtle Beach.
What I found fascinating in the non-adjusted numbers from 2011 to 2012 was that the number of people not looking for jobs increased by almost the same number as those who got jobs (2.8M vs. 2.7M). So for each person who got a job in the past year another person stopped looking (i.e. retired?).
Hence I conclude that the 2.7M jobs (year over year unadjusted) being 'created' in this report were nothing but part time work since any income is better than zero income even if cash flows stay negative. The fraction that arn't part time ARE NOT even coming close to replacing the cash flows from the full time jobs being given up by older, more senior retirees.
What you report above is indicative of another possible trend. College kids moving back home rather than going to school and taking part time jobs to help themselves and parents while they wait to see what will happen with jobs and economy. Why get any education if you can't get a job?
ENd of LiNE
oh oh. its the red clean up crew . right on time .. the 2:15 express
There are piles upon piles of fliers all over downtown Denver, on poles, in bars & restaurants, advertising "part-time jobs" to "Elect Obama" paying $12-14 an hour for workers aged 18-24. "No qualifications or resume needed, just show up! Everybody is welcome, just bring a government-issued photo ID!"
I'm sure this is just a coincidence, right? It looks like Obama just spent a bunch of Soros cash to hire every single swing-state 18-24 year old for part-time, do-nothing jobs for $12-14 an hour to boost the NFP for his re-election.
RBS's Richard Tang explanation:
"While we cannot be certain, the back-to-back gains in September 2011 and September 2012 could reflect a decision by younger workers to remain in the workforce rather than pursue a higher education..."
mine:
"While we cannot be certain, the back-to-back gains in September 2011 and September 2012 could reflect a decision by President Obama to remain in the Whitehouse rather than pursue early retirement..."
First time it happened in over 32 years? Fuck Six Sigma, what is that, like 6^10 sigma? Def a non-linear event.
Is this "a Zero Hedge fountain of misinformation", as one pundit put it?
No, it's a prune danish.
Does being paid to wait in line for an iPhone count as a job?
stranger things have happened.
"Dewey defeats Truman", only to be contradicted the next day!...
Would that be Nicole Schrodinger of the Pussy cat Dolls?
Tyler, you posted charts on full time and part time employment back in June. Do you have updated charts?\
It looks to me that most all of the jobs created during the recession and recovery have been part time jobs. In fact I read someplace recently that it more than accounts for all of the job creation to the tune of an extra 1.4 million. If this is so, it accounts for the tepid increase in personal income and the slow recovery.
We are undergoing a seismic shift in our economy. We must get more competitive or watch our standard of living continue to fall.
Read a study published on Bloomberg that inflation adjusted median income fell 2.6% during the recession but get this it fell another 4.8% during the recovery and the total decline since the start of the recession is 7.2%. This is a critical stat.
The new part-time normal:
Interesting --- if you turn the chart sideways, it almost looks like a silhouette of Ben Bernanke and Jamie Dimon facing each other.
Full time jobs mean paying into someone's 401K and giving them health insurance.
Corporations and government agencies avoiding full time employees like the plague.
Pay them $9 and hour or less part time and let them pay for health "insurance".
Oh yeah, let them go on food stamps and medicaid too.
Curiouser and curiouser
Eh fuckit, I didn't wanna become rich anyways so let's go commi!
One more way we've become just another European country: our growing numbers of over-educated jobless (in their field) young.
Official job statistics are only going to get better as people hire extra Xmas staff. Thus, market will probably rally until Xmas.
Adjusted for inflation real average hourly earnings are 10% lower now than they were in 1972.
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/real-average-ho...
And that is using the laughably lowballed government CPI figures, which everyone knows grossly understates the real rate of inflation (currency depreciation).
So in actually, REAL wages are probably HALF of what they were in 1972. Which sounds just about right to me.
Fuck Obama!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8% to $2.73 trillion in August, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Revolving credit, like credit cards, grew 5.9% and nonrevolving credit, like car and student loans, rose 9.0%.
we don nee no stinkin jobs
Is being on the household survey list now a prerequisite to getting a job?
Remember folks, its the QUALITY, not the quantity:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/05/jobs-numbers-quantit...
Another data point - there are no bounds to deceit in the service of politics.
The 2010 census was used to manipulate employment stats - census dept *hired* boatloads of workers (for like 1 or 2 weeks - I was one and there were plenty others in my zipcode - we went to some classes and then were let go.) Anything that can be used to make fudge will be.
If we dig enough we'll probably find a trigger like the infamous birth/death model stipulating that college students with financial aid have an employment requirement ergo they must be employed... what month do all the student loans re-up?
But all the government data fudging won't change the plainly visible facts of our so-called recovery - the shuttered shops, offices, factories and company hq; empty homes being kept from foreclosure sale, zombie homeless everywhere, huge turnouts to hiring cattle-calls for any job with some benefits, rapidly rising prices for basic commodities.
Freedom will only be restored when financial criminals are punished, bad banks are allowed to fail, and market pricing is allowed to function again. All the incentives today favor crony capitalism, dishonesty and turpitude. The values that anchored this country's successes have been put in a perverse lockbox. Is there a viable peaceful solution?
they say hyperinflation is triggered by a collapse in the value of fiat as a result of printing but I suggest the fiat collapse may come as a result of the actions of the absolute clown show that serves as our leaders both politicians and fed reserve.. the bold faced lies and spin they urinate on the tax payers with.. but add the two together, printing and lying, and surely this fat whore of a country is going down. How could it not ?
Maybe the number is real. Gee...what would a 20 to 24 year old girl do to make money part time at school. This really surprised me when I checked my old college town:
Blacksburg Strip clubs | Strip clubs in Blacksburg, VA - YP.com www.yellowpages.com/?blacksburg-va/?strip-clubs21 listings of Gentlemen's Club in Blacksburg
I don't recall there being any of these type establishments when I was there.
EDIT: 141 in New Haven!!
Obama screwed himself. This will blow up in his face.
Schrodinger Student = double income no kids
I was so comforted to hear this today on the Daily Ticker. I know you will be too:
"It's a shock to hear that anybody can think that these numbers were manipulated," say Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, in the accompanying interview with The Daily Ticker. "Having followed these numbers for 25 years and knowing the people who put them out it's absolutely bizarre…It's outrageous. The data is based on surveys of tens of thousands of employers and households every month."
That's just ludicrous, those chartss are put together by well-trained economists, who
thoroughly go over those figures.
http://d24w6bsrhbeh9d.cloudfront.net/photo/475013_700b.jpg
I write this off to the fact at my public california university they have 5-6 students running what 1-2 students should be able to do. They went on a hiring frenzy this september.
Today was a missed opportunity for ZH to help refute the BLS numbers with clarity. For years, we've questioned BLS "adjustments" and revisions. Would have thought today, we'd have clear facts at the ready to refute the BLS. So, today ends with the MSM suggesting todays few BLS challengers are extremists. Tomorrow, no one will care. Today was one of those days to put up or shut up.
This could be a very scary number, but 16 to 24 year olds represent 12.5 percent of all people employed but they accounted for 51.4 percent of all new jobs created in the Housing survey.
And they say that Obama does not try to rig the numbers? Then read this!
http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/28/news/economy/spending-cuts-fiscal-cliff/...
I couldn't help but wonder if BSl (bullshit about labor) dept. counted TEACHERS returning to work in Sept?
Yes, I know they were employed (under contract) through the summer, but they weren't actually working, see?
Wouldn't put it past the BSL.
2012 Rosemary's Babies, marked with multi trillion debt and the number of the beast declares the labor(er) of the harvest living at their parents house, at QE billion(s) monthly hopium zero interest fix. What's next? ...a draft to spike the numbers? Next thing you know the second Oath of Office will be done without the Bible, in FDR's War Room, in front of the Grand Masonic Architect Benjamin LaTrobe, but on a Black Horse, only this time the scumbage will have a scale in his hand, with wheat raised high above a Babylonian counterweight, in the other scale cup. LMAO. After he gets done with swearing, he'll high five the SCOTUS and they will both shout with glee ''BTFD', with a company robot accent. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ms638cqCA8E&playnext=1&list=PL6A08D0B9B2F1DED1&feature=results_video
>>>Bohemian Grove Cremation of Care Standup Comedy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdnY8r7_fLw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
I wonder if unemployment is actually lower than the reported numbers. ADP processes paychecks for some of the largest employers in the USA. Paychex processes paychecks for the smaller businesses. Both are near all-time highs. One can attribute this to easy money chasing stocks. However, there are many stocks who have gotten trashed and aren't near their highs. How can these companies, ADP and Paychex, be doing so well stock-wise when unemployment is so high. I think ADP employment gains are a better gauge of what has been happening to the employment situation in America. The reason why I think it is more reliable is that the BLS is just a survey of a few households. ADP actually takes data from the companies they handle paychecks for. ADP can actually get sued for sending out garbage data to mislead. I've never heard of the BLS being sued for faulty data.
ROFLMAO @ The shrodinger student.
A superposition of BS in these stats.
There is a whole bunch of decision making going on behind the scenes. Why does a +70 year old need a cell phone? What is the real reason? So that they will notify the authorities when they feel they need help (official reason). So that the authorities can harvest their remaining wealth and health as soon as they give consent (real reason).