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Guest Post: Housing: Plenty Of Reasons To Be Pessimstic

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Panzner of Panzner Insights,

There’s plenty of debate about—and money riding on—the question of whether we are in the midst of a sustainable recovery in the housing market. Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic.

For one thing, the supply of homes, in terms of what is currently on the market and what is potentially for sale whether or not prices rebound further—the so-called shadow inventory—remains significant relative to demand, even though data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that inventories of existing homes are back to where they were eight years ago.

Aside from the question of whether developments that have occurred since then—including the fact that their are more ways to sell property than by going through a broker—have distorted the inventory calculation, the composition of sales has changed from what it was. Nowadays, a much greater share of transactions are in the “distressed” category than before the bubble burst. Given that more than 20 percent of sales are foreclosures and short sales makes the current ratio look healthier than it is in comparable terms.

Needless to say, shadow inventory is far greater than it was during the go-go years, when people were happy to remain long despite a booming market. With prices having fallen sharply since then, we now have a situation akin to those seen in other post-collapse markets: Holders can turn seller on a heartbeat as prices move closer to what they paid or owe on their mortgages. Given that more than 20 percent of mortgagees are underwater, that represents a sizable overhang.

The tide of past, present, and future foreclosures—actual and de facto—has also left lenders with substantial holdings of “real estate owned” (REO) properties that will undoubtedly be offered for sale at some point. These are not voluntary investments being held for the long-term; they are unwanted assets that are costing money by the day to finance and maintain. According to HousingWire, nearly half of mortgage giant Fannie Mae’s REO holdings are unable to reach the market at present.

It’s not just about supply, however. Demand is significantly less than it used to be for a variety of reasons, most notably because it is much harder to get financing now than it was when the property market was booming. Despite some recent loosening of credit conditions and ultra-low mortgage rates, anecdotal and other reports make it clear that lenders are generally unwilling to grant loans except on stringent terms to the highest quality borrowers.

But even if you discount the fact that traditional home buyers are having a difficult time borrowing the money they need to buy a home, it’s apparent that other factors, including societal shifts, are undermining demand—and will likely continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

Number one among them are economic conditions in the post-crisis era, which are having an adverse affect on prospective homeowners’ willingness and ability to take the plunge. A structurally weak employment market, where temporary and low-paid services jobs comprise the lion’s share of the jobs being created and where the odds of finding another, better paying, and more secure opportunity are low, is not the catalyst for people to step up and make what could be the biggest investment of their lives.

Demographic factors are also playing a role. The upheavals of the past decade or so have reaffirmed the truism that growing older means trading down and taking less risk. And while ultra-low interest rates have pushed some of those who survive on their savings to invest in something other than a bank CD, real estate is definitely not the investment of choice. At the same time, broader societal changes, including more people living alone and more single-parent households, is undercutting demand for what has traditionally been a nuclear family-oriented investment.

Perspectives about what really matters are evolving as well, especially among the younger generation. Whereas in the past the milestones of getting married, buying a car, and acquiring a home represented the natural progression of things when children reached adulthood, priorities have changed. A recent Bloomberg report noted that 4G wireless telephones trumped V-8 cars for the 80 million U.S. consumers born from 1981 to 2001. Meanwhile, the still-ailing post-crisis economy has convinced a growing number of young people to embrace “the age of frugality.”

In addition to shifting preferences, many of those who are at the lower end of the demographic scale already have a big financial burden hanging around their necks, which precludes them from taking on other big commitments like a mortgage—that is, student loans. Aside from the fact that, for many graduates, these obligations are far higher than they were, proportionally speaking, even a decade ago, the prospect of being in the hole for as far as the eye can leave a lasting impression on impressionable individuals.

Policy-making in Washington and by the Federal Reserve further underscore doubts about taking big risks that might backfire. While the latter keeps reassuring everyone that it has matters under control and that interest rates will remain low for years to come, given how many promises they and other authorities have broken over the past several decades, it’s not surprising that people are hesitant to count on that on those assertions going forward.

Lastly and perhaps most importantly, demand is being undermined by broader-scale mood swings. People are beginning to accept that it isn’t necessary to own your own home, nor is it necessarily a long-term goal. That might seem like heresy in a country where property ownership has been viewed as a God-given right, but when you consider that in economic powerhouse Germany the share of residential property accounted for by rentals is more than 60 percent in most states and 90 percent in the capital, Berlin, it’s not all that strange.

In sum, while it is easy to focus on the traditional indicators of supply and demand and start believing that the long-awaited recovery in the property market has arrived at last, the fact is that much has changed in the wake of the events of the past decade, a development that is likely to weigh on prices for many years to come.

 

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Sat, 10/06/2012 - 18:58 | 2863608 jusman
jusman's picture

Yeah well, and 1400 ft2 in the centre of Montreal across from a market and walking distance to everything (including the subway) is much better than 2800 ft2 with 4 bathrooms in the burbs of Toronto....and there are communal gardens across the street.  Choices, all about choices.

 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:28 | 2863642 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

MUST SEE: 

How Crony Capitalism Corrupts the Free Market | David Stockman

 

 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3AKiWGawGs&feature=player_embedded And germane to this post: 
U.S. level of vacant homes is "extraordinary": Fed's Duke

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-fed-duke-idUSBRE89414F2...

 

 

and scary shit:

 

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2012/10/06/enter-at-your-own-risk-police-uni...

 

 

 

 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:49 | 2863750 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Stockman is so right to throw the tirade.  

Here is what baffels me and I'll use ZH as platform to state my concern/belief.  I read "The Great Inflation" about Germany... there is a chapter called "the mandness of it all" and it is by far the most depressing chapter in the book about the episode.  Morals were' gone.  The puritain value of thrift and working hard, saving money was GONE.  The Devil took full front in ther minds of the German people and took them straight to hell. ..printing money as Mr. Rudy von Havenstein did back then isn't much different to  0% interest rate as Ben Shalom Bernake is doing .. for 6 years?  Saving your wages and let them die?  You're savings from 3 years ago is worth in some cases, half of what it was 3 years ago.

Save money (Ben Confetti) for college?   HOW IN THE FUCK with 0% interest rates for 6 years?!!  

didn't the bankers learn their lesson about printing money from the German episode?

 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 21:43 | 2863815 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Oh, they learned...only not from us muppets.

They follow an agenda we don't like.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 10:54 | 2864602 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Germans who converted their fiat to RE, stocks or gold did ok.  In many 3rd world countries (India, Argentina) small savings are made in gold.  Maybe we should be learning from them.  Afterall, that is where we are headed.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 14:49 | 2865324 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Detroit 50 years of rule by Democrats not so bad considering the damage obama has done in just 4 short years. 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:36 | 2863653 jusman
jusman's picture

Yes, well there is the "GARDEN NAZI" who is a bit overbearing at times (everything in perfect lines and NO weeds).  And yes, given the climactic changes (longer autumn) they could have left things in longer, but we are talking about Montreal you know...Pesto for days!

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:55 | 2863679 max2205
max2205's picture

Ummm...why did you throw in Germany ?

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:58 | 2863683 jusman
jusman's picture

Similar attitude to the Soup Nazi on Sienfeld...

 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:06 | 2863612 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Assuming interest rates have to rise in a big way eventually just to reach some semblance of historical normalcy, and given that most people are more worried about their monthly payment then the actual purchase price, then it stands to reason that housing will be clobbered during the years the rate adjustment occurs.  Unless they [deliberately or unintentionally] hyperinflate the currency to the point where people can plop down $100K down payments from a job a the mall.   Either way, non-productive real estate seems like a very poor investment at the moment.  If I were an evil oligarch, I would hoard cash or PMs and then buy in a big way when interest rates put most borrowers out of the market.  

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:04 | 2863692 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

I think it's simpler than that.  Housing reaches its real value when there's no credit available, when buyers have to pay cash.  How much can the avverage American afford to pay for a house in cash?  About 50 bucks?

Usury system supports present housing prices.  That's all.  Question is, when's the system going to break?

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:08 | 2863620 PUD
PUD's picture

Homes were once viewed as shelters not "assets" or "investments" They were place where you lived not speculations. The FIRE economy and the inherent greed, stupidity and bank led propaganda turned shelters into assets to be tapped, leveraged, traded and of course...manipulated.

There is plenty of blame to go around. Banks, whose only mission statement is to get as many as possible in as much debt as possible for as long as possible and at as high a cost as possible bear the bulk of it. But the "consumer" has his role in it all too. When one looks at his home with $ signs in his eyes, as an atm machine, an asset to be flipped etc the whole thing was ripe for disaster. Jingle mailing the keys was the final manifestation of this mentality...that your word was no longer your bond and your home was just another asset to be managed to your greatest advantage.

If the day ever comes when homes are viewed as sanctuaries, shelters, safe places to raise a family we will all be the better for it. As long as banks, brokers and the greedy continue to view them as financial tools we will continue up the driveway to ruin.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:40 | 2863657 booboo
booboo's picture

You failed to mention the governments roll in all of this, regardless of the corrupting forces (they are fucking adults after all) government does bear much of the blame. No Turd Left Behind or what ever the policy was, it was born in the halls of D.C.

This of course could be said of any clusterfuck that plagues the entire planet. Why we continue to look to the halls of government for solutions to problems they create is beyond me, in fact now that I think about it this is their M.O. They create a crisis and then pretend to have a solution and that solution always involves stealing a right that they never bestowed in the first place. 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 22:11 | 2863856 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Jesus, are you people idiots?  When did banks decide it was a better business model to lend to people who obviously could never pay it back? When did that theory go into vogue without their being compelled by the power of government?  That is not what banks do if allowed to be prudent.  They lend with good odds of getting the money plus intertest, not houses. Banks aren't in the real estate business. They never wanted to be and it shows.  This whole mess doesn't start with banks, it smells like Liberal Progressivism.

 

FORWARD SOVIET!

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 23:07 | 2863929 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

The roots of the crisis started decades ago. That was when government officials, egged on by left-wing activists accused

mortgage lenders of racism and "redlining" because minorities were being denied mortgages at a higher rate than suburban whites. The pressure to make more loans to minorities led to the Community Reinvestment Act which empowered regulators to punish banks that failed to make subprime loans to low-income, minority, and distressed neighborhoods." Lenders then loosened their underwriting standards and started making shoddy loans that they otherwise would not have. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, encouraged this "subprime" lending by authorizing "flexible" criteria by which high-risk borrowers could be qualified for home loans, and then buying up the questionable mortgages.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 09:21 | 2864523 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Aging boomers no longer need big houses; there's no one to put in them anymore.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:09 | 2863622 FiatFapper
FiatFapper's picture

Proof that doom 'n gloom is highly subjective; Kyle Bass mentions he's long on MBS's and owns 1% of the market (4m55s), yet this article tries to paint a deeper inflection point.

Atleast from the gutter, you're always looking up at the stars.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:14 | 2863625 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

MBS's are being purchased by the Fed so it's a no brainer for Bass.  The Fed is purchasing them at 100% of face value, when they are worth no more than 30% of that amount or less.  When the Fed eventually off loads all that shit from its balance sheet to the tax payer, guess who gets to pay it all back.  In this society, it is not permitted for bankers to lose money on bad investments.  They get the profits, we get the losses.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 11:00 | 2864606 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Yes, but does that mean it is a good investment given today's environment?  The problem with these "investments", IMHO, is that it is dependent on the whims of politicians instead of sound financial principles.  Perhaps Mr. Bass is reading the tea leaves correctly.  But in this environment, things can change.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2863635 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My guess is that housing will continue declining until trade with Asia and South America is halted. The middle men have sucked about every last dollar from developed economies and without a return of manufacturing and competiveness everything will be fucked. There must be someway to feed the Government monster until it is done away with through technological advances. We are being controlled by destructive human systems run by mad dogs.

Starve the Beast. Which reminds me there is a new werewolf movie out that I hear is pretty good.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:31 | 2863722 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Technology is being advanced and perfected in Pakistan. Any over speeding, no stop violations and disobeying law enforcement devices will be prosecuted on the spot from above. No court hearings required . Video evidence will be available on request.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:24 | 2863639 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Seriously, it's a challenge to be in the advertising/marketing/selling biz right now because priorities have dramatically changed.  In our dented and beaten up society, the contrast level has increased tremendously.  Now, for many it's not just status, braggin' rights, or even "keeping up appearances" as much as plain ol' survival.

We're a long way off from where we were even in 2008.  It's a different world and not for the better, IMHO.  I sure as hell wouldn't buy real estate now, you never know when some feudal lord will decide the property tax needs to increase 1000% or the ground underneath will crumble due to another "land owner" exercising their mineral rights to "your" land.

Maybe I'll consider buying when about 40 acres of farmland is worth one gold coin.

Until then good luck to us all; we'll need it.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:27 | 2863646 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Navel gazing.

 

 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:32 | 2863651 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke and the Fed' bubblizing plans work until they blow up. 

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:46 | 2863659 sitenine
sitenine's picture

This problem is a poorly thought out generational investing bubble.  The Fed and the Federal government encouraged what they saw as an endless source of prosperity instead of unwise and dangerous real asset appreciation.  Fact is, retirees need to sell houses and properties they accumulated to retire the way they planned, and there are not as many 'new investors' coming in behind them as they delusionaly expected there might be.  So, keeping the housing bubble from imploding eventually is just another pipe dream of centrally planned lunacy imho.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:49 | 2863662 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

Any idiot will tell you that if something is too expensive they won't buy it. If prices come down to where they can afford it, they will buy it. Thus is true with housing.

For the life of me I can't understand why politicians are trying to stimulate demand by doing everything in their power to keep the product as expensive as they possibly can, in the case homes.

If prices come down nationally, it's not a bad thing even if you are a homeowner wanting to sell  a home....unless you leverage your home to entertain your juvenile fancies and in that case if you get hurt you can just go ahead and fuck yourself. If I have a $200,000 that becomes a $100,000 home that is bad right? Unless the home I'm looking to move to was a $200,000 home that is also now $100,000.  Sure you took a haircut on your home but you're also getting 50% off on the home you're moving to. I bet the new homebuyer would love the oppourtunity to purchase the property I have for $100,000 instead of $200,000.

My grandfather served in WWII, worked his whole life, lived most of his adult life in the same HOME, and raised a family in that home. He was responsible, thrifty, honest, and humble. He purchased his home for $50,000. It was recently appraised for $350,000. What's my point? Stop looking at a home like a fucking stock or a vehicle that you can borrow against to do shit or buy shit you don't need. When you buy a home buy it because you want to spend the rest of your life there, be responsible with your lives and you'll never have a problem.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 02:52 | 2866717 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

For the life of me I can't understand why politicians are trying to stimulate demand by doing everything in their power to keep the product as expensive as they possibly can, in the case homes.

They're not trying to stimulate demand for homes.

They're trying to keep home prices up so trillions of dollars of MBS owned by the government, Wall Street firms, and the Fed doesn't lose value. 

Of course they're losing that battle as the economy gets worse, more people losing jobs, etc, and MBS keep dropping in value.  It's why the Fed started buying MBS, creating artificial demand for MBS, keeping values up (just like Treasuries).

They don't care about the real world anymore.  All they care about is the paper world. 

They don't care if empty homes pile up on banks' balance sheets.  All they care about is keeping MBS from losing value, so Wall Street firms' balance sheets don't turn red again.

But the cash flow just isn't there.  When homes go vacant from foreclosure or owners vacating and mailing keys back to the bank, that monthly payment cash flow for those MBS just isn't there anymore.

As the gap between the paper world and the real world gets wider, it's more difficult to keep those paper values up. 

They know they're losing that battle.  They know it's impossible to keep paper values up with the real economy sinking further and further.

But they have no solution.  They've demonstrated they won't do anything to save the economy, so their paper world will collpase eventurally.   It's just a matter of time.

If I have a $200,000 that becomes a $100,000 home that is bad right? Unless the home I'm looking to move to was a $200,000 home that is also now $100,000.  Sure you took a haircut on your home but you're also getting 50% off on the home you're moving to. I bet the new homebuyer would love the oppourtunity to purchase the property I have for $100,000 instead of $200,000.

One little problem with that scenario.  Both mortgages are probably underwater.  Both homes depreciated but the paper on those homes didn't.  Both would be short sales banks might not go along with.

This is the point I made above.  Homes are losing value but Wall Street is trying to prevent mortgage paper on those homes from losing value.  It's why they stopped mark-to-market.  The market is tanking.

Wall Street lives in a fantasy world back at '07 levels when the market was high.  

They absolutely don't want to recognize the real world today where homes have dropped 50% in value.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:50 | 2863670 Lord Drek
Lord Drek's picture

//Perspectives about what really matters are evolving as well, especially among the younger generation.//

True. I'm 23, and right now, my biggest priority is having a large enough stock of food, supplies and 00 buck to survive when TSHTF. Who cares about going into debt for a piece of paper these days? Just gonna ride this storm out...

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 23:54 | 2863982 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Smart young man.  Don't forget water too... 6-7 days without it and you're dead.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:53 | 2863675 max2205
max2205's picture

DC is rocking. Condos and town homes selling like hot cakes....thanks Ben!

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 22:32 | 2863889 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

This is true.  The Federal Government employees are the best paid in the USA.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 01:56 | 2866905 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Yep, DC is an oasis of prosperity in a desert of economic depression (the rest of America).

Wouldn't you prosper if you could borrow all the money you want at 0%, and never have to pay it back?

I guess we can include Wall Street, another oasis of prosperity.

Wouldn't you prosper if you were on the receiving end of trillions of dollars printed by the Fed, buying worthless crap from you at full mark-to-fantasy value, plus fees and commissions?

Yep, pretty nice arrangement there, having the Fed's printing press at your command.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 19:53 | 2863676 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

When the Macro is broken,
based on lies,
left unchecked,
macro becomes micro...

False wealth exposed
is a net drain on spending
of any kind,
the big kind, too.

Housing based on lies
already met truth
It ain't gonna resurrect itself,
'til the macro = truth
and trickles down to the micro.

And that's even the best-case scenario...

Good article.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:04 | 2863681 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

XHB puts, bitchez

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:05 | 2863693 zanez
zanez's picture

A pessimistic article on ZH? I am SHOCKED.

 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 02:52 | 2864102 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Get back to your regular programming

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:13 | 2863700 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Perhaps another threat to US housing is the number of houses that are built which are cheap and nasty and will not stand up to the test of time with their wooden frames and cheap cladding.

Having visited Greece I can at least say that while as an economy and a system they are totally f.....ed, they nevertheless build with bricks and concrete and housing that was built decades ago is alive and well.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:24 | 2863712 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Atlanta is full of that shit.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:31 | 2863721 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the bubble burst 5 years ago in housing...it has not recovered nor will it for decades. i think it's been safe to move from that thesis and let the bulls disprove that thesis. The burden of proof is on the bulls...they have always failed the test. the best that they can say is "we have found a bottom." the more interesting take is of course Amazon.com, which is a direct assault on the commercial real estate market unlike anything seen in history. while you, me and everyone else can bitch about the valuation...the simplicity of their business model isn't in doubt: no friggin' overhead/sell and deliver DIRECT to the consumer. can't beat the vision...the fact that the business is putting it into practice is PURE Fed policy as only when credit is so freely available can such a system be effected. and how about JP Morgan "going on the down low" in New York City real estate?http://www.trulia.com/blog/thedavidrosen/filter/category/Foreclosure/43
good luck finding a bottom in that market...as China get's smashed to pieces the annihilation of the commercial real estate market should be quite spectacular. hence "be New York City's bitch" Bernanke is taking that worthless paper in the ass lie a friggin' HO. the irony of course is that this will only accelerate the plunge in values as...sure, the banks get paid...but that will only make Jamie Dimon smile and "contemplate the buying of his entire Homeland ("the nation formerly known as Greece") for a dollar and giving it as a gift to his Washington DC pains in the asses" as a consequence. this of course is not news. simply put the collapse of incomes AND benefits is now pretty much complete in the private sector...but has only just begun in the Government Patch as World War III gets underway and "all those high paying jobs decamp to foreign lands" per the Mossad's instruction manual. Ahh, sweet smell of success. "Wrecking another City"...desert warfare style.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqoF-Xu4gIw

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 20:57 | 2863760 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Whether or not housing is "recovering" is the wrong question (as PUD noted above).  It might be better to ask---given all the woes that stemmed from the house price boom---why should it be considered a good thing if house prices rise?  Is housing an investment or a consumer good?  The vast majority of the bubbles in human history are RE-based, and have arisen because societies made the wrong choice, which was that a home was an investment.

Bernanke cannot create jobs, so apparently the next best thing is to create the three income household again: Dad, Mom and the Home Equity Loan.  As always, the "solution" remains that which caused the problem in the first place. 

Perhaps that is all we have left: the hopes and dreams of something for nothing (calling Mako!).  We made one last and ultimately destructive attempt to pull forward demand by massively expanding debt.  For a time it looked like a winner.  The US home equity ATM was the mother who gave birth to the BRICs.  China would still be Tiananmen Square, if not Cultural Revolution II, if not for the US consumers' ability to purchase---not from labor-produced wages and real productivity, but from HELOCs---all the crap that so-called "economic miracle" churned out.  Without Call Centers created to help the US consumer max out his or her credit card, India would still be a fantasy land run by fat and corrupt Maharajas (oh, wait, it still is).

Then when it all blows up, like it did in 2007 when the debt can no longer be serviced and the music must stop, the world points fingers at each other saying "that country didn't work hard and save enough like us" or "those guys need to open their market and create a consumer culture".  The fact is, excess debt was the only thing that allowed the fantasy of infinite growth to continue.  We all got "rich" from debt.

We don't learn, because the reality is too unpleaant.  We convince ourselves that adding 30% more debt to create a 3% larger economy is "recovery".  China added 100% more debt to create a 10% larger economy.  We both think that math works and we can spend our way to prosperity.  Even those nations that did not run up debt (are there any?) are only "succeeding in a prudent way" because everybody else ran up debt to buy whatever these "responsible countries" produced.  China boomed because of the US, Germany boomed because of Greece.

Unless somebody out there knows a new New Math, what we are trying to do doesn't---cannot---work.  Collapse is inevitable.  After that we'll re-invent the wheel and do the same thing all over again.  Those of us alive today were just fortunate enough---if that is the right word---to catch a cycle at its peak.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 21:35 | 2863802 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

California and Nevada construction is full of Chinese sheetrock.  A disaster in the making.  There is no climbing out of this housing bust.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 21:40 | 2863812 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Why is the govt even involved in writing mortgages? It is mind bottling. oh well it will all end soon.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 22:15 | 2863866 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

i agree that there is a pincer movement of demographics - seniors trading down when they can trade at all, and youngsters straddled with debt and limited economic prospects even with degrees...while the supply of homes remains at high levels - i wouldn't believe or trust the nar any farther than i could slobber....so the tax payer is forced to subsidize the housing paradigm of the greedscab go go years....more shoveling of money to banksters to keep the homes off the market.

Sat, 10/06/2012 - 23:08 | 2863930 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

Sure there might be a recovery in the housing market, hell, maybe another boom, even bigger than the last one, based on even EASIER to get credit, .

 

We all know how well that ended.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 00:03 | 2863994 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

NONSENSE....   CNBS assures me that housing is almost mended. 

'Full Rebound' in Housing a Year Away: Larry Fink

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49292706

 

So, within a year housing will be back at the speculative house flipping prices and E-Z credit if you have a pulse subprime level where it was when the depression started right?  Of course everything else will also be doubled in price since then so relative to everything else house prices will have to double from there.  Can you say a cute little starter home on a 50X100 lot with 2 beds and a bath and a half for $600k? 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 09:14 | 2864516 gilligan
gilligan's picture

Can you say a cute little starter home on a 50X100 lot with 2 beds and a bath and a half for $600k?

Yeah..."Australia".

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 13:35 | 2865160 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

There are plenty of reason's to be Pessimistic if you are a lender or investor that is. There are millions of homes coming up for foreclosure in the next few years right now investor's are complaining because enough inventory hasn't been released for them to buy for pennies on the dollar. The Banks are actually fighting with the government right now because they want the loan business. Here's why...

That means a lender gets 6 percent more than the principal amount of a loan upon a sale. They also receive income stream usually equal to 0.25 percent a year that can be retained for servicing the mortgage.

The gains that are helping banks are also benefiting bondholders. An investor betting $25 million that the securities would outperform yield benchmarks in a trade suggested by Barclays would have made $6.7 million between Sept. 7 and Sept. 20. The wager involved using 20 times leverage, a typical amount for a hedge fund on such bets.

This isn't for YOU unless you are a lender or investor this was planned months ago it is a wealth transferrence to the wealthy crony's like buffet you will be allowed to rent. Soon only the wealthy and the thrifty will own property. This is all part of the plan to bring down the American Middle Class.

Rental Market's Big Buyers Private-Equity Giant Blackstone's $1 Billion Bet on Foreclosed Family Homes

 

The Impact of 28.1 Million Real Estate Investors on Housing 

 

Las Vegas-based investor willing to take $550 million gamble on distressed properties in Southwest

 

Investors Ready to Take Bigger Bite Out of Market Banks reap profits on mortgages after QE3 Mortgage Putback Threat Reduced for Lenders Under New Rules

 

 

 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 01:14 | 2864047 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Excellent summary of conditions in the residential market.  Really good.  I would add that there can only be one reason for such a huge number of properties with loans in default that "can't" reach the market -- the federal government doesn't want them to reach the market.  Banks file foreclosure and/or get a short sale application but they cannot get approval from Fannie and so nothing gets done.  Here in Colorado, there are a lot of homes occupied by owners who aren't making payments, and it goes on for years.  I'm reduced to looking for properties without regard to the MLS.  Homes listed for sale are priced way too high, and one reason is that people bought huge mansions that nobody wants now.  There are very few REO and short sale listings.  I went to one the other day and 3 separate parties showed up in the 15 minutes I was there.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 06:41 | 2864181 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

I'm starting to get a sigourney crush on Meredith Whitney fuck these empty headed broads, meat and a heart beat, she's no dunce, I wish she put her brain in all the other women. I wouldnt have to say a word just eye contact and a nod.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBzadRjKJmA&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 07:14 | 2864205 wjkins
wjkins's picture

Very well said Cosimo  

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 08:20 | 2864263 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Dear Real Estate Mafia Goons,

I have 20% down, a 780 FICO, and a top 3% income.

But I don't fucking care what the interest rate is; I know it will be "historically low" for a "historically long" time to come. I can do math too; so I know that you've got 15-20% more to drop on the principal before it's even worth my consideration.

I feel for the fact that you didn't think while buying like a shark with its eyes rolled back in its head, but that doesn't mean I want to bail you out of a bad buy with one of my own.

Seriously. None of this will clear until that drop happens.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 14:42 | 2865309 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"but that doesn't mean I want to bail you out of a bad buy with one of my own."

But that's just not the spirit of our bailout economy Mad - get with the program!  ;)

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 08:47 | 2864478 plainpilot11
plainpilot11's picture

Who cares about housing prices when we have Agenda 21 to look forward to?

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 09:16 | 2864518 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Agenda 21 can be avoided with hardly a shot being fired. Just enforce the law and arrest a hundred bus loads of financial-political criminals, mostly from Capitol Hill and the White House. Sort of like the ending scene of 'Boiler Room' when the paddy wagons and prison buses roll up to JT Marlin headquarters to arrest everyone, only on a bigger scale... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 17:49 | 2865998 reTARD
reTARD's picture

The issue at hand is not one of the "chain of command," but one of the "chain of obedience." At the end of the day it is up to the individuals to not obey their orders from those up above.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 08:58 | 2864491 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Fire up the bulldozers and level millions of distressed and underwater homes. That's the only way to cover up a crime of this magnitude.

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 09:16 | 2864517 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Just think of all those "security details" we'd need to hire on.

"I can hire one half of the workforce to kill the other half." - Jay Gould

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 09:16 | 2864521 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Larry Kudlow was saying that back in 2008, just bulldoze them, that is how I know it is a criminal sinful suggestion.  I quit making the payments on my house in July 2009 and moved out the following February, but one of my neighbors quit paying August 2008 and is still living in her house.  How much more proof does the average American need that this country is toast?  How many more trillions does the Fed have to give bankers?  Will they just not get it until they cannot buy a gallon of gas at any price? 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 11:06 | 2864611 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Ahem. One has to first have a well paying job and the prospect of keeping that job or its equivalent for 15 to 30 years before home buying becomes a viable prospect. 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 12:30 | 2864750 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

I have said this a million times on this site.  The "red flag" for our approach to the bottom of the housing market will be when the 30 year mortage is over 10% for an extended period and not a day sooner.  All these other factors are useless.

 

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 14:39 | 2865303 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Number one among them are economic conditions in the post-crisis era, which are having an adverse affect on prospective homeowners’ willingness and ability to take the plunge. A structurally weak employment market, where temporary and low-paid services jobs comprise the lion’s share of the jobs being created and where the odds of finding another, better paying, and more secure opportunity are low, is not the catalyst for people to step up and make what could be the biggest investment of their lives."

But, but Prez. Obama's team just dropped the UR number to 7.8% - we're saved!

Sun, 10/07/2012 - 17:42 | 2865983 reTARD
reTARD's picture

"That might seem like heresy in a country where property ownership has been viewed as a God-given right..."

Property ownership is an illusion in this world where the "owner" is forced to continually pay property taxes as well as subjected to ever changing zoning laws and "eminent domain." Kings and serfs have now only evolved to governments and taxpayers with the illusion that our governments represent and work for us and that we taxpayers are free people who freely choose our type of slave labor.

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