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Why It's Different This Time With AAPL's iCorrection

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We have seen bigger drops in AAPL's share price and each time that dip has been bought. Critically though, not just nibbled on but backed-up-the-truck volume surges as AAPL's price fell as what seemed like institutional buyers using any dip to grab some high-beta meth into this trend. The current almost-10% drop is missing this volume surge - where are the BTFD'ers? But, but, but what about iTV, the mini-iPad, and the pending vendor-financing corporate spin-off?

Volume (2nd pane from top) is not ramping like it has in the past on 'decent' sized sell-offs in AAPL...

 

and interestingly we have typically (though not always) seen a spike in average trade size as AAPL's dip was bought institutionally - this time the spike occurred on 9/21 - the day of the top...

and also of note is the level (red dotted line) of the last major ramp in volume and average trade size (in early August) is close to where we are trading now - suggesting plenty of action as the auction was heavy here.

 

Is it different this time? With AAPL a mere $1.50 away from its $634.56 10% correction from the highs, we wonder if that or the 100DMA 200DMA $619.75 will be the next support?

 


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Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
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c

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Tyler, $619.75 is 100DMA--200DMA is much, much lower.   My advice is: wait until the 100DMA, or RSI (14) is at 30.  This latest stretch is a pretty ugly drop below a hideous H&S on the 6 Week.  For those who say AAPL does not tradfe technically, you are wrong.  It is one of the most technical stocks of the QQQ.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

[^^ Submission fail.]

I recall a time when high volume validated a move, and it was the low-volume corrections that were considered unreliable -- I guess all those days of sense and sensibility are behind us.

I suppose I should welcome my new hedge-fund-hotel-resident iHFT overlords.

I wonder whether anyone runs HFT on Mac Xserve?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Deflation < C + PRNT

Look for the Central Banks to btfd.  Beats the shit outta owning USTs and MBS which will just swell their liabilities.  This considering most of the gold has been loaned out by now.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:42 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL is due for a bounce, and maybe even before the 100DMA.   The hedgies have to keep the AAPL illusion alive to sell their shares to retail--at the rate of HF ownership and volume, it will take till Christmas to compelte the switcheroo.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

iCaramba!!!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Think it's falling now?  Wait until the appeals court throws out the Apple Samsung verdict.  It will mean a lot more than a $1B jury verdict gone.

It will mean Apollo Creed gets an ass kicking by Samsung / Google phones for the next 12 rounds.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Anyone see the new Droid ads running on the TBS baseball playoffs?  Good stuff.  Apple nerds should fear deflation on many fronts.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

iWouldSell

 

BTW, compared my S3 with my buddies' i4.  No comparison technically - S3 walks on it.  Apple facing serious competition.

 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

oh iGod, make this AAPL shit stop.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

"Is this the line for apps?"

Samsung FTMFW

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

The apple cult continues!  They make the iphone 5, what, a half inch diag bigger and ooooooh it can take panoramic photos!    Stuff the galaxy S phones have done for years.   

Just wait until the Galaxy note 2 comes out.   Apple replies by making an ipad mini.   Who wants to carry TWO devices?  a phone AND a tablet when you can have them both in one with the galaxy note/note 2.

Ive had an iphone and it was fine.  but once you venture out of the cult and try a galaxy s2 or s3, you won't be back.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Touche.

Well done, ORI.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

Aren't three rising volume dips enough for distribution to muppets?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment mr_T
mr_T's picture

The iSlaves are revolting today at Foxcomm.

Workers want more suicides nets / worker.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

in hopium-land what is tecnhical one day is merely lifted the next day on unicorn tear condensation steam. a chart is valid until there's some central bank magic. just be careful. and SHORT THE PLANET.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

For those who say AAPL does not trade technically, you are wrong.

yep. and the 100 dma failure great entry for short with 200 dma as target.  bottom feeders will be fighting bears for a little while though

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It would appear investors see Sammy standing behind apple with a very large baseball bat, cocking back getting ready to swing.

Unfortunately for apple, the impact is once again coming from the direction they are not looking in...

 

Investors may want to don 2mm thk plastic suits, as there may be bone flying with this one.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

CRAAPL

- Tyler Durden, in a past posting

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

Tyler,

Why dont you use the same logic on equity index declines?  When volume is high on sell offs and low on ramp ups that tells me there are more buyers then sellers.    The same logic you just implied with Apple. 

Id love to see a low volume decline on the ES then I know SHTF. 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Maybe the icorrection has to do with the upcoming Supreme Court case in which it would be illegal to resell your used icrap, or pretty much anything else that was not made in the USA.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-right-to-resell-your-own-stuff-is-in-peril-2012-10-04

 

 

Tucked into the U.S. Supreme Court’s agenda this fall is a little-known case that could upend your ability to resell everything from your grandmother’s antique furniture to your iPhone 4.

At issue in Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons is the first-sale doctrine in copyright law, which allows you to buy and then sell things like electronics, books, artwork and furniture, as well as CDs and DVDs, without getting permission from the copyright holder of those products.....

 

 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

Mmmmm.  I'm skeptical.  The SC does not like decisions which are difficult to enforce.  I think they would consider getting rid of first-sale, an unenforceable decision.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

Uncle Sam to the rescue!!  Don't you see what is happening.  Apple is becoming the new GE.  I don't think ZH understands the fascist-corporatist protocol.  A company is successful?  Thank you, now you get to be cannibalized by the Government.

 

The Government will simply turn Apple into a home mortgage financer.  That is to say, it will become a branch of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which is run from a very small cubicle somewhere in the basement of Goldman Sachs.

 

See?  Wasn't that easy?

 

Next?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Pretty dangerous calling an AAPL short, Tyler.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

I'm one of the many bears who has been shot, stuffed and mounted in the living room over the last 3 years, but I think this is the real deal. Propping up this market is getting quite expensive for the Fed

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Everyone is probably selling their Apple stock to buy Huawei and ZTE.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

... or NFLX.  (With SJ rolling around in his grave). 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Apple is making it's Microsoft transition. A large used to be innovative company that generates a lot of cash. It will find it's equilibrium and trade like Mr. Softy.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The 1999/2000 MSFT chart should be studied relentlessly by all AAPL traders.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Study? Lemmings are not known for their analytical skills. They just run with the crowd until all is lost.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:43 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Watch out for that last step, it's a doozy!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

<sinister chuckle>

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment flapdoodle
flapdoodle's picture

It sure seems like they've made the sea change from technological innovation to "innovative" lawsuits against Samsung and "innovative" use of decidedly inferior Apple Maps in order to not have to give Google credit for theirs...

If you can't invent, spend your warchest on lawyers and DRM. Sounds about half way to Microsoft already...

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

Note that MSFT hit it's $60/share, half a trillion $ mark, then fell never to return. What would that put Apple at? $200 a share for the rest of eternity?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

Note that MSFT hit it's $60/share, half a trillion $ mark, then fell never to return. What would that put Apple at? $200 a share for the rest of eternity?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment dracos_ghost
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iCaramba!!!!!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
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Hah.... great minds... LINK TO MY COMMENT

ori

 

 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All good iThings must come to an end.

<iExit stage right.>

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Deflation is coming any minute guys....

....any minute....

[checks watch]

.....any...minute....

[puts hands in pockets, looks up, whistles]

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Mr. L-H, the irony of it all is that 90% of professional portfolio managers are only hedging DEflation risks.   They could give a shit about INflation.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LH,

While I don't expect Deflation to linger I do expect Deflationary impulses to strike now and then. They will often come disguised as market "corrections" or even "crashes".

That is until everything decouples with everything else and the "everyone fends for themselves" final stage begins.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

impulses of deflation? ... out with it ... you really mean abrupt fartiness.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Are you recommending AAPL as a buy..??

I thought you and Reggie M. were shorting it...???

Seeing 'AAPL' and 'buy' in the same thread is unusual here at ZH.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I shorted AAPL from 703.80 to 671.00.  It was enough.  I have not taken any positions since then.  I like to keep shorts somewhat ... er ... short in time ... in the Bernanker market.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Retail and Muppets (including Big Bird) have left the building. That leaves the new dumb money hedge funds who can't sell or chase until "something" happens.

Betting on a 5% surge up vs a 20% crash down depends on how much faith you have in politicians and central bankers.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yet you forget the most important part of the equation:  the Corporations.

The corporations are running the Banks, the politicians.  So now that retail is out, what will they do?  You have cashed out your 401k to pay your mortgage for the next 4 years and you are living off of your pension to eat and buy gas.  You have no stake in the game anymore.

So what happens when it all unravels?  Who will be left after the Controlled Demolition of the economy?

THE CORPORATIONS....

That is the Plan, anyway.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

So many of those corporations are foregoing capex and buying back stock and paying out dividends just to keep the investors they have. Corporations only have power as long as everyone stays on the endless debt wheel and continues to buy their crap - all of which is slowing imploding as we speak.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

When it gets added to the Dow, that's the day you short it. Kiss of death for a tech company.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

As mentioned previously, overextended AAPL weekly & monthly parabolic charts are at EXTREME levels.

This will end in tears and longs will be badly burnt.

http://trader618.com

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:46 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Even stranger is money rotating out of AAPL and into much "safer" stocks like AMZN 325 p/e and NFLX. /sarc

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The recent promotion of NFLX to "value stock" by C/MS has to be the most sinister joke of 2012.   Nevertheless, even if you have to hold your nose when buying it, NFLX is a nice money machine right now--soon to be over.  Those expecting $80 on NFLX in short order will be cruelly disappointed by the end of the week.  A few analysts will come out opposed to the C/MS bull thesis soon enough.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

AAPL is in a good position to short. They've had a runnup that is typical of big tech companies. They will come down, and at this point, the risk of them rising higher is much lower than the risk of them falling

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

The recidivist gambler always get what it wants.  It isn't after something of value to hold or it would.

It's all about the roller coaster ride,  isn't it boys and girls? 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I would not short AAPL within the event horizon of an 'iPad mini" announcement.  But at least the China Mobile partnership is on ice right now.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
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miniPad is a saturated market

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Saturated market" yes, but the announcement will spike AAPL on a squeeze.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

humor fail. minipads. saturated. sheesh.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Should be happy, competition drives prices down.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

One REALLY NASTY iGap still beckons from about 432.....

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

it was an iBubble back in february at $535, you can lose a lot of money on ZH's apple predictions

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ibubble-apples-market-cap-now-same-entire-...

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Where was it said to short said bubble? It was a bubble, it still is a bubble (just as we said Netflix was a bubble in March 2011 when it was $250). And that's the problem: bubbles do not trade on fundamentals, they trade on human irrationality, momentum chasing and euphoria. Those who wish to time inflection points in any of these above 3 unquantifiables are welcome to do  so on their own.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment All Rise
All Rise's picture

Since when are stocks in at bubble at 14 times earnings? Considerable lower if you ex out cash on the balance sheet? If Apple was trading on 30 or 50 times earnings or more like some tech stocks then fair enough, but it isn't, and it still has a growth rate far higher than its PE. It's market leader in its field and they normally trade at premium to market. There's not even a case for saying Apple is expensive, let alone a bubble. The only way you can argue that Apple is a bubble is if you think the iPhone is finished, and there's no evidence of that yet.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Earnings in fads (even those with quote unquote ecosystems) can and will change on a dime. RIMM (and Motorola, and Palm, and other notable gadget makers du jour) was once cheap at $100. Then earnings imploded. Now nobody talks what its multiple in 2005 was, when it too was "cheap." Finally, by the time there is evidence that the iPhone is finished, it will be too late to sell.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment All Rise
All Rise's picture

So basically you think the iPhone is finished then. Let's see if you are right bubble picker!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Damn I love the Fight Club....

Least we forget, manufacturers are going to dump a shitload of MS desktops, tablets and phones for Win8/Metro and a ton of infrastructure is going to upgrade from XP. Most small to large businesses I know are Win based and have been waiting for something better than Vista(crap) and Win7.

Watch MS metro/win8 tablet market share over the next 2 years. Add in Amazon's program for Android Kindles and Google's push, you will see tons of profit compression at Apple. Can you say applesauce?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Wait Tyler, so you only make right calls when you make right calls? 

Damn ZH is comdey hour when the bears are out!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

RIMM's management was beyond awful and the blackberry was a one trick pony.  Please don't even throw Palm out there as an example, or the hand radio (rolls eyes) company.  Apple won't go on forever, I think everyone knows that, but you have proven time and time again, not to be the appropriate one to make the call.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The only call made is that the stock is a bubble. Whether you take emotional offense to that is of course your right, just as it is your right to keep buying it for as long as you desire.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Tyler, I don't take emotional offense, I think you make a weak analytical case that lacks reason and logic.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

iAye, thy iApple of mind mine's... meme!?, always forbidding// competition... shackling and crippling creativity and the progress of man... whence, shan't never come too  pass!     

please be my guess :-))

"To Me, Fair Friend, You Never Can Be Old" __ Sonnet 104?

http://www.nosweatshakespeare.com/sonnets/104/

thankyou tyler

 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I think the bubble starts to deflate with Apple TV I think it will prove to be a dud of a product. It will be horredously expenseive, priced to perfection, feature a glitchy version of Siri no doubt, and so on, and all for a device that folks are used to paying not very much for. Samsung is already ahead with its smart tvs that do all you need them to do right now. 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Ned you may be right and the Smart TV competition will be fierce. I like GTV which is really sweet. Samsung and others are ramping up the nextgen stuff. Even old MS will have kickass Xbox to Win8/Metro functionality.

Applesauce coming just sayin'

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

You haven't seen the competition to the iPhone 5. Really?

What an interesting sociological specimen you make.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Tyler, please please please explain how Apple is not trading on fundamentals!  How much cash and growth do they need to have in order to earn a trailing 15 and forward 12 PE ratio?  Please define bubble for all of us.  Why don't you tell us what the correct price is for Apple on fundamentals, and then why don't you put yourself out there and make an investment/short/trading call so we can track just how good you are.

Compare Apple to T, VZ, NFLX, GOOG, EQIX, AMZN and Apple is cheaper than all of them.  It has the same trailing PE as Microsoft!

 

 

 

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment All Rise
All Rise's picture

He's trying to pick bubbles. Let him be.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

fad
   [fad]
noun
a temporary fashion, notion, manner of conduct, etc., especially one followed enthusiastically by a group.

I liked the following from dictionary.com:

Origin:
1825–35; noun use of dial. fad to look after things, busy oneself with trifles, back formation from obsolete faddle to play with, fondle. See fiddle

When I was a kid it was roller skates and platforms... I'm sure the roller skate manufacturers extrapolated their exponential demand charts to infinity and exclaimed that soon everyone in the world would skate. There would be no more walking. A new future has arrived... etc etc. I think I remember something like that recently about a scooter of some sort as well.

And then it was kids who went through fads. Now it's supposedly grown adults.

p.s. How old are you?

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

It's because of the new Nokia Lumia 920.

 

Apple could take the spare hundreds of billions they don't know what to do with, buy Nokia, rebrand the 920 as the iPhone 7, forget about the iPhone 5 debacle and get decent maps as well as a better operating system and Apple users will get a high quality state of the art phone instead of a second rate copy of the previous generation of iPhone. Everyone wins.

 

(talking my book)

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

iReality

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Samsungi buddha say;

iAppleQe... the new refurbished reseller of- 'Dr. iOz Applejuiced rewrapped/repackaged yesterday's today iFad... will be burn'd by yellow rice`wine-sake!

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Could the top be in?  I am probably one of the last few peasants on the planet that has never purchased an Apple anything.  Sorry, but in my view, Jobs was a crook, not unlike the banksters and Congress.  His stock option manipulation rates a big ZERO in my book.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Options made valuable by the strategic deployment of slave-like labor.

Its the stuff of which heroes are made.

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

btfd its 3PM !

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

ha ha, but we are not rallying too strongly into the close.  

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Grill Boss
Grill Boss's picture

http://bcfreedom.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/death-lies-and-mutations-what-...

as the public continues to understand the above link, the demise of apple approaches

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 23:33 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

iBetter ditch the iPhone

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

iTV, hmmm is that real? I dunno cos I am not an AAPL believer, but if it is, the British tv channel ITV, might have something to say

Mon, 10/08/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Looks like AAPL's sliding down the side of the right (from my perspective) ear of a classic head and shoulders top. If I had more money I'd buy a bunch of Jan 14 puts. Maybe Jan 15 if I want to avoid any shenannigans.

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