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Oil Surge, Stocks Purge, AAPL Bulls Regurge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UPDATE: AA earnings beat, missed, won, lost, with forecasts up and down... facts below!

From the close after the Fed's QEternity announcement, it may surprise some that the Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and Dow Transports are all down 4%. S&P futures have retraced all of last week's gains, dropping the most in over week amid significant volume. AAPL dumped to its 100DMA, bounced, failed to break yesterday's VWAP close, then tumbled back to today's VWAP for another down day. VIX popped the most in 2 weeks (up over 1.2 vols) to end at 16.2%. From the 9/14 peak in stocks, only Healthcare is in the green, with Energy/Tech/Materials down around 5%. Oil jumped higher (up 3% on the week) in the face of USD strength that weighed a little on the rest of the commodity sector.

Post-QEternity - Dow Transports, NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 are all in sync -4%...

 

 

S&P futures tumbled - taking away all of last week's gain on significant volume once again...

 

and Healthcare remains the only post-QEternity close sector in the green (with Staples very small)... and Tech/Energy/Materials down 4.5 to 5%...

 

USD is up 0.9% this week with major divergence between European currencies relatve to AUD and JPY strength agains the USD...

 

Oil pushed back above $92...

 

AAPL had a down-up-down day - leaving a nice techical tail bounce off the 100DMA which we are sure will be discussed as the bottom-signal... a look at the day in terms of VWAP suggests this was less than a 'recovery day' as the ramp off the lows stalled at yesterday's VWAP and sold off on consaiderably heavy volume intrday...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: Some annoying factual facts about Alcoa's earnings (as the bots hold it steady after exploding higher...)..

The Press-Release

  • *ALCOA 3Q ADJ. EPS 3C, EST. BREAK-EVEN :AA US
  • *ALCOA 3Q LOSS CONT OPS 13C :AA US
  • *ALCOA LOSS FROM CONT OPS OF $0.13-SHR; INCOME OF $0.03-SHR EXCL


Oops:

  • *ALCOA CUTS 2012 GLOBAL ALUMINUM DEMAND FORECAST TO 6% VS 7%


and the facts:

  • Free Cash Flow: Q3 -$39MM
  • Adjusted EBITDA Q3 $282mm, down 45% from Q2
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 2011: $821 MM; Q2 2012: $ 517 MM; Q3 2013: $282 MM
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin Changes                  12.8   %      8.7   %       4.8    %



 

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Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:15 | 2872433 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

So this is still bullish right?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:29 | 2872477 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yeah actually...it is. Provided you have good credit of course (something we all need to work on I'm sure...since the more you borrow the better credit risk you are.) what is missing from "the anger management list" are utilities and chemical companies....which have been STAR performers since QE began. This stands to reason since these are HIGHLY capital intensive industries and thus subject to....how to put..."the vagaries of interest rate policy." they don't have that problem...well, MOST don't I should say...and those that don't...are KILLERS.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:15 | 2872434 CPL
CPL's picture

WHo wants to start calling bottoms before the biggest bailout ever gets released?

 

S&P 50

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:30 | 2872481 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Both the Red and Blue team know a lot of old decrepit brainwashed sheep will vote for whoever levitates their 401K's..

And Obama and his boss Big Ben have some jobs to keep / buy..

 

Might want to play "calling tops" instead?

 

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:38 | 2872500 CPL
CPL's picture

Yeah, but there's actually some guess work to where it falls.

 

Tops is something I wouldn't count on in the next day or so.  Someone is going to have to tell the Chinese to back up from NYC/Jersey and LA in their subs.  

 

The War just started btw.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:59 | 2872567 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well its now been confirmed, what GW/ZH were saying about Syrian shelling of Turkish border settlement that killed 5 Turks.

Its was a Nato shell that did it provided to the rebels by the west.

Is this a false flag to get Turkey into the Syrian free for all? 

NATO Mortar Killed 5 Civilians In Turkey - Business Insider

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:34 | 2872657 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

I don't think anybody's surprised. Nobody really believed that the beleaguered Syrian Government was shelling Turkey in an attempt to take on a superior military and the full force of NATO.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:35 | 2872493 CPL
Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:47 | 2872522 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

As I predicted months ago,the polls start to go against Obummer,means war in October.

This puppet wants that office no matter what the cost to others.

Even the puppets are psychopaths.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:49 | 2872528 CPL
CPL's picture

And Googlebot predicted Oct 17th as the collasal shit storm.

 

9 more days.  Wonder what happens?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 19:14 | 2872932 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Time for a punt on oil futures ?

Only paper that might be good long enough to make money.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:20 | 2872450 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Worse case senerio for the fed where prices rise due to printing,  profits and  demand falls. Stagflation baby!!

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:22 | 2872454 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Did they sing dirges in the dark?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:23 | 2872456 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"...AAPL Bulls Regurge"

"Regurge"? That's a bit tortured.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:26 | 2872460 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Bernanke imposes "double tests of resistance" to TBTF US banks this autumn first by the FED and then internally by the banks thmselves.

More false flags and sleight of hand....bigtime. 

Etats-Unis: doubles tests de résistance pour les géants bancaires cet automne

This should put FED on par with ECb and ESM....the world is saved from bank collapse...

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:25 | 2872463 malikai
malikai's picture

Today was pain day for the muppets. Amazing.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:26 | 2872464 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Going to be a nasty recession, all those excess dollars swishing around with nowhere to go as the overall economy tanks. Nasty comes this way.  ThE Economy is choking on dollars like the guy who ate the cockroaches.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:45 | 2872520 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

Good post! I just knew someone would work the dead cockroach eater story into a post!

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:51 | 2872537 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

Had he won the python things would've been totally different.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:32 | 2872465 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No reference to PMs?  I will add one.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/lawrence-williams-gold-not-commodity-strongest-currency-all

What do you think of that weird flip of a giant trader short position into a banker short position in an overnight accounting trick?  Now the banker short position is absurd.  IMO either a client defaulted, or banks had been hiding their positions in subsidiary hedgefunds until the CFTC position limits issue was killed.  But who knows?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:27 | 2872467 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Just got my "tough decisions had to be made in an uncertain healthcare environment" email, no surprise here that healthcare stocks are up.  About 10% would be my contribution.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:54 | 2872535 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Uncertain?  What's uncertain?  They will raise costs 10% per annum as we make the same or less.

The only thing that is uncertain is when the U.S. Sickcare money-grubbing leech infested bloated wild hog industry stops goring the population and dies an inglorius death.

Tough decisions my ass - those corporate vampires are making money hand over fist and letting people die AFTER they push them into bankruptcy.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:28 | 2872471 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

There is still some positioning in the "QE3 favored stocks" going on.  Even today, some of them ended GREEN.    

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:29 | 2872475 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ben's going to need another 40 billion per month.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:35 | 2872490 e-man
e-man's picture

October surprise?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:50 | 2872532 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Honestly, I think he's going to triple it in the upcoming months. He's not going to have a choice. The markets will take choice out of the equation.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:10 | 2872592 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I hope so... Stick a fork in it and get it over with.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:19 | 2872613 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

X2 but I doubt it. Stagflation is en vogue. Just ask Mdm Lagarde.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:32 | 2872484 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Is there a MD in the house?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:38 | 2872503 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Remember now all good news is already out there.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:40 | 2872507 Lax Accounting
Lax Accounting's picture

AA is trading pretty significantly under book value. Buy of the century or....

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:40 | 2872509 gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

What a dogshit stock AA is. How many years of negative cash flow do they have to post to get kicked out of the Dow?

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:41 | 2872510 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

I heard some very unsubstantiated (but specific) rumors that Israel is prepping for war. Supposedly, Israel is contracting "militants" from other countries--specialists I would assume. S&P aerospace and defense was down .72% today, but all petro and NG gains seem overdone, as WTI is up 2.9 bbl and Brent 2.4 bbl.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:42 | 2872513 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

YUM kicked some butt. I guess everyone is trading down to fried chicken and cheap tacos.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:51 | 2872539 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

YUM has Taco Bell.  

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:30 | 2872647 edifice
edifice's picture

Indeed. My trade from MCD to YUM has worked out, nicely. Keep the taco machine rolling!

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:47 | 2872524 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

 

  • *ALCOA CUTS 2012 GLOBAL ALUMINUM DEMAND FORECAST TO 6% VS 7%"

That's a 14% slowdown...Yikes!

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:34 | 2872656 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Don't worry about aluminum demand.  I will single-handedly support that entire market via beer can production and usage.  I would speculate that, given the fact that the election season is now in full swing, I could single-handedly cause a 10% uptick in global Al demand over the next few weeks.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:48 | 2872525 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Naysayers and doubters!  The Fed has created yet another new yardstick to measure with.  This thing you call a top is merely the one inch marker of a footlong.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:48 | 2872527 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Slish-slosh.

It's like a tidal power generator.

Surf's up for the robots, poor humans bobbing up and down in a barrel.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:53 | 2872546 FranSix
FranSix's picture

I have it figured out. AAPL investors take their profits then buy something to eat at Chipotle.  Then they watch something downloaded from Netflix.  Once they get bored with Facebook, they drive somewhere out of boredom.  They realize that driving costs money and takes energy, so they buy oil futures.   But gas is expensive at the pump, so they take their profits there and buy bonds because the Fed is buying bonds, which they could look up on Google.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:26 | 2872634 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

LOL FranSix!  I appreciate the cynicism.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 16:57 | 2872557 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

AAPL is a metaphor for the entire US economy: "Losing Jobs and putting Cook in charge of the books".

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:15 | 2872602 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bring back the retail investor by making NWO, AlQD and CITZ stocks that regular people can bet on.

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 17:25 | 2872626 news printer
news printer's picture

Price of final products like gas and diesel will go higher, cause they add methanol (to gas) and oil from soy beans (diesel), there was a drought which still is in most of US.

And there are some predictions (models) of how high will go price of food; correlate it with methanol and soy oil and there we are. Next year after elections, U'll see prices of fuel never seen before:

Drought = Food = Fuel

http://www.section9department17.com/1/post/2012/10/drought-food-fuel.html

 

Tue, 10/09/2012 - 21:39 | 2873233 Grill Boss
Grill Boss's picture

The downfall of AAPL... No insurance.... massive liabilities...

http://bcfreedom.wordpress.com/2012/09/24/death-lies-and-mutations-what-...

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