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Popping The "Black Friday" Myth

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so another urban legend falls, this time of the retail "doorbuster" ploy known as "Black Friday", whose only goal is to get as many gullible US shoppers into retail stores with promises of massive discounts and unbeatable bargains. As it turns out the promises are completely hollow, in based on an analysis by the WSJ, those highly touted Black Friday deals aren't deals at all, and in fact the bulk of the "discounts" are smaller compared to comparable price cuts throughout the year. In fact, the only thing that is true about the day that launches Holiday shopping, is that it is a great demonstration of the herd effect in play, where people line up in droves just because other people line up in droves. In the meantime, everyone else has already managed to snag that much desired purchase long ago and at a lower price. Of course, if this key day that anchors the start of the profitable retail shopping season is relegated to the dustbin of urban legendry, then retailers' already negligible margins will be cut even further, leading to severe adverse economic consequences for a country whose economy is 70% based on consumption, and which is already on the edge as said consumer is largely tapped out and whose credit cards have been maxed out long ago.

From the WSJ:

After crunching two to six years' worth of pricing data for a number of typical holiday gifts, The Wall Street Journal has turned up the best times to go deal hunting — and they almost never involve standing in the freezing cold all night.

 

It turns out that gifts from Barbie dolls to watches to blenders are often priced below Black Friday levels at various times throughout the year, even during the holiday season, and their prices follow different trajectories as the remaining shopping days tick down.

 

Watches and jewelry, typical last-minute quarry for well-heeled shoppers, get more expensive as the season progresses, according to Decide Inc., the consumer-price research firm that gathered and analyzed the data for this article. Blenders, which might sit around for months if they aren't bought in the holiday window, get much cheaper at the end.

Presenting this visually:

 

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Wed, 10/10/2012 - 07:57 | 2874004 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

This is how we con you Bitchezz!!!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:05 | 2874028 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Myth it all you want....I got the snot kicked out of me on Black Friday.

 

But then again.....I probably deserved it....and didn't realize it was Black Friday.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:42 | 2874424 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

Personally, I can't wait til my lovely Americans go into a consumerism frenzy to trample their countrymen to death for appliances that are marked down under their inflated MSRP.

It's pure genious.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:48 | 2874441 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I can't wait til my lovely Americans go into a consumerism frenzy

 

Fighting for 5 gallons of gas at the Stop and Go is ugly to watch......4 more years please.

 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:46 | 2874746 toady
toady's picture

This is news? I've been saying this for a couple of decades!

And I still can't convince the wife. At least I get a day of peace around the house while she's out losing money.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:15 | 2874508 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Refering to the beginning of the Christmas holidays as "black Friday" is the work of Lucifer .... and I don't want to hear that lame explanation about businesses going into the black !

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:07 | 2874034 pasco35
pasco35's picture

I'm boycotting Black Friday this year and I encourage everyone to do the same!!!

 

 

-Frank
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgmdSv_R6l8&feature=plcp

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:13 | 2874041 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Huh? How does one that has never participated in a fucking "Black Friday" boycott it???

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:25 | 2874137 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

easy...don't buy, but return something on Black Friday.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 11:07 | 2874840 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I was wondering too, having never in my long life played the insane Black Friday game, but Soup Line gave me the answer.

As good as it is, I think I'll still pass and go flying, weather permitting.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 12:55 | 2875270 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

The drones will shoot you down for not shopping

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:18 | 2874517 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I've never understood why people turn out for Black Friday. The crowds alone are enough reason to avoid the places.

I think people who stand all night in November for this manufactured event are clinically insane.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 11:00 | 2874798 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Some people like action.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 12:57 | 2875279 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Turn it into game shows. Climb a greased freezing pole for 50% coupons

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 07:57 | 2874005 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Consumption Junction, What's Your Function?

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 07:57 | 2874006 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

No black Friday for Gold:

 

24 Reasons For Gold

There are many reasons for Gold. First and foremost: Preservation of Wealth. The illusionary paper wealth will implode in the next few years. The initial trigger will be the collapse of the world’s reserve currency – the US dollar. The financial system is unlikely to survive in its present form. Gold has been money for 5,000 years and will continue to be the only currency with integrity.

 

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/11038-24-reasons-for-gold

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:08 | 2874035 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh good......the barbarians are up.

 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:15 | 2874043 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Get you some silver too!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:19 | 2874054 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

More barbarians.....crap......this is bad.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:21 | 2874058 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

We're at the gate!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:25 | 2874100 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh shit - Joe Keren

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:34 | 2874559 fuu
fuu's picture

The gaul of some people.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 07:58 | 2874008 spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

If we wanted to trim the population, black Friday shoppers would be a good place to start.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 07:59 | 2874012 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

 CNBC will still have some of their idiots at the malls gushing about the crowds and telling us how sales are so much better than last year. By 4 pm on Black Friday, Maria will have her pom poms and be doing cartwheels. Until the printing stops, It's all Bullshit!!!  Rally on.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:03 | 2874023 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

"CNBC will still have some of their idiots..."

 

Correction

 

"CNBC will still have ALL of their idiots...."

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:28 | 2874196 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"some" or "both" are equally redundant when referring to CNBC and "idiots"

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:00 | 2874015 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Dont be sad... Here Merkel dance for you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEF63hPDukA

 

If you can see past the hot chic, there is a nice song from Greeks to Merkel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxnsEagfyG4&feature=related

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 11:10 | 2874858 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Oh God I wish I hadn't watched that!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:00 | 2874016 max bucket
max bucket's picture

I need more stuff

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:02 | 2874018 Redhotfill
Redhotfill's picture

Rascal down!    So you mean to tell me my favorite retailers plan on jacking up the pices on my goodies just as X-mas is to be rolling around the corner? Next you will tell me its like planned or something!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:35 | 2874407 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

SDOK

Spit Drink On Keyboard

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:35 | 2874563 Monedas
Monedas's picture

COBD       Come On Blue Dress !

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:54 | 2874533 Monedas
Monedas's picture

"X-mas" offends Muslims .... an X is just a cross being carried on someones shoulder !      "Black Friday" and "X-mas" .... Boycott PC !     It's Christ's Mass  .... heathen Socialist filth !        As a child "X-mas" confused me !   As an adult it offends me that Jewish, Muslim and Wimpy Leftist Christian merchants, wanting the business, would disdain their customer's religion and the beautiful Holiday Season ?  PC is a lie and lies don't help anyone !      Monedas' First Christmas Salvo !      PS:  To be truly PC, X-mas should be changed to "X-religious service" .... "mas" refers to the Catholic mass .... very un-PC ?    Once you look into it .... you'll find that all Socialists are low grade morons .... at their best !

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:02 | 2874020 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I am by far NOT a BF commando, but curious that electronics especially LCD TVs were not analyzed.  Of course the Brick-n-mortar stores are more and more but showrooms for their unaffiliated online competitors.

 

PS

I do not think AAPL ever discounts anything new.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:59 | 2874791 toady
toady's picture

I saw a story on this 'news' in the msm. What is basically be done is a roll back in prices on big ticket items, like an LCD, and higher prices on everything else, from tickle me elmo to a dozen eggs.

The only ones who save $20 or $30 are the ones who buy the LCD and nothing else. Everyone else pays more.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:03 | 2874025 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Gets some fat asses off the couch is about it. I have never shopped on Black Friday.

Did get one of these -

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=307846957

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:18 | 2874052 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

I call, and raise you one of these....

 

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=310721629

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:22 | 2874060 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Can you say how well it runs?

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 11:49 | 2875025 hannah
hannah's picture

keltec sub2000 is a better deal if you already have the glock mags......high capacity mags baby...!

 

 

* but if you want the hipoint...watch cabelas. they have these for $185 every once in awhile....but they are heavy (in weight) for some reason. the keltec is all plastic.....run and gun.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:04 | 2874027 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I just saw a 1845 german 1 oz gold bar sell for $2150, free shipping of course. Consume that!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:04 | 2874029 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

The madness of a lost society on Black Friday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOshw4kIGR4

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:05 | 2874032 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Nice mortgage ap. print.

04:00  USD   MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -1.2%   16.6%  

not! Yet, ES goes positive.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:16 | 2874048 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i struggle w/wsj. look and feel like another corporate adverstising firm made to look like journalism.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:17 | 2874051 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Peaple, peeple, peonple, we have been studying the psychology of human animal spirits for ages (a long time).  We get paid to do this, and the results of our studies are privately held.  We know more about what motivates your animal than you could ever know, and we are not going to tell you what that is, that we know about you.  Our preference is simply to motivate you, as the animal you are.  We really despise you, because you are not one of us, and because that's just how we roll.  We will take any advantage of you no matter how cynical, amoral, unethical, or just plain mean, that may be, because we can, and, well, truth be told, we are animals too, just higher ones than you.  Don't let this admission bother you, because we understand that you will forget any pain of realization soon enough.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:20 | 2874055 cbaba
cbaba's picture

I remember a news i read , the Electronic TV, Computer manufacturers make a special model used during just for that shopping period to reduce the prices but then they remove some of the features from their devices which makes them possible to cut more. Its another trick, you think you are buying this samsung tv cheaper but it is not the same tv.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:27 | 2874170 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Would be nice to dispell the need of people to "keep up with the Jones'"

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:30 | 2874233 Ljoot
Ljoot's picture

The telly's blurting out that layaway is back at WalWart. Rush to lock in the full price now and pay for it when it's half off!

 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:31 | 2874305 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

My sons PS3 broke right before black friday last year. There were good deals and I decided to go to sears at 4 AM to get in on one. What a mistake. Every register had 100 or so people in line and they ran out of PS3's immediately. I went home and found the item I wanted on amazon and with free shipping and no sales tax. So I saved 6%. I will never ever go shopping on black friday again. Once in enough.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:49 | 2874440 yudd
yudd's picture

i read this study , and they forgot to mention that they dont take into account the instore deals, so that this report does no include Door busters, THis is like that stupid study about the organic foods being no different than normal food, as always READ THE FINE PRINT AND DONT FORGET TO CHECK WHO FUNDS THE REASEARCH.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:49 | 2874447 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Scottish Christmas:  You buy presents from 12/26 - 12/31, and you share gifts on New Years.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:26 | 2874536 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Whoa!  In the genetics, you think?

As the largest portion, I am 3/8 Scots in my Amerwreckan mutt mix, and, without knowing of this ethnic perjorative, I have been doing the Chistmess on New Years thing for a long time.  Recipients like it; mooooore Presents!  I like it; haaaaaaaalf cost (think fooooooood baskets).

And since I am already seeing the vestiges of Christmesses future:

Let me now sincerely wish you a Cherrymistress!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:53 | 2874458 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Black Friday antidotes:

1.  Celebrate Little Xmas which is a couple weeks after Xmas

2.  Re-gift

3.  Get a life

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 08:57 | 2874467 lostcause
lostcause's picture

Pack them into the shopping malls where our government can hit them with those 30,000 drones and blame it on Iran.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:05 | 2874477 Simulacra10
Simulacra10's picture

It is a myth in the sense that there is a perception that EVERYTHING is slashed, when in fact it is a few select items. I live in a small town ( >15K people ) and I enjoy pulliing the all nighter to get a deal or two. It's reminisant of the days when you had to camp out for concert tickets. You get to talk to stangers and swap stories. 

I'm a bargain shopper and my wife is too. If you wan't to find all the good deals you have to start shopping the day after Christmas. We usually fininsh all of our Christmas shopping for the year by mid January. Stuff get's marked down to 70 - 90% after Christmas and typically we spend at most a $200 to $300 for our family and girls with the exception of one or two gifts that we pick up during the season. 

FYI - last Christmas it took us 6 hours in total for our girls to open all their gifts. They actually got board with it. We have scaled it back this year. 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:26 | 2874539 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

My friend has been gushing about Black Friday for weeks and I cannot get him to shut up about it.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 09:43 | 2874579 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What if they gave a Consumermas, and nobody bought?

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:11 | 2874601 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Remember the articulate and sedate woman who proudly thanked Obama for her Obamaphone? I was run over by her and her relatives years ago on a Black Friday. I went because I'd never gone before and wanted to see what it was like. Two people were trampled severely enough to require being removed by ambulance drivers and taken to hospital.  No thanks. I will never ever do that again.

My Christmas shopping is finished by June except for the gifts I make by hand that require more supplies.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:01 | 2874617 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

It's called "Black Friday" because the theory was that stores made enough to go from being in the red to being in the black.

Only marketing and a lack of intelligence on part of the consumers would have anyone thinking it was the best day to get a deal.

 

 

 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:07 | 2874631 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think there are a very great number of those anyones.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:14 | 2874648 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Not only that, those anyones can get highly physically and emotionally aggressive if they think someone else is about to 'cash in' on a deal they think belongs to them.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:38 | 2874726 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I have never in my life done Black Friday (my family observes Buy Nothing Day), but I have seen the videos. Yikes.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:25 | 2874676 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Businesses that are in the red for the first eleven months of every year .... and you fell for that ?  PC sucks !

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:29 | 2874670 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Now that Johnny Grant is dead .... the Hollywood Christmas Parade .... will be henceforth referred to the Black Friday Multi-Cultural Street Break Dance Event !    PC sucks !       To be PC .... all those Macy's balloons should be festooned in black .... charming !   PC sucks !

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:31 | 2874700 Vooter
Vooter's picture

As Sartre wrote, "Hell is other people." Live accordingly...

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 10:57 | 2874782 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

How about some "popular products" I really need...?

5 lb. potatoes

Loaf of bread.

4 liters milk

Light bulbs

I'll bet they'll NEVER be "on sale"...because we're not supposed to buy...STUFF WE NEED!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 11:33 | 2874957 hannah
hannah's picture

",,,it is a great demonstration of the herd effect in play, where people line up in droves just because other people line up in droves."

 

i am sick of people constantly denigrating being a herd animal...i saw 2 cows last night in a field quietly munching their cud and they were so happy and blissful.not a care in the world.

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