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The US Economy In Q4 - Just The 'Chart-Porn' Facts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The US economy grew at a 1.65% pace in the first half of the year and, according to Bloomberg Brief's chief economist Jo Brusuelas, is now tracking at a 1.5% pace of growth. The IMF's dour outlook for the world's economy has been shoulder-shrugged by many but in this compendium of everything you need to know about the US economic outlook but were afraid to ask, Brusuelas provides the facts and nothing but the facts. From slack in the labor markets, to a slowdown in investment and soft household spending, even the Fed's unprecedented QEternity is unlikely to grab us back from the edge of a malaise-like sub-2% consensus forecast for Q4.

Bloomberg Consensus: Survey Of Forecasters (seems a little aggressive to us)...

 

Labor Market Slack... (divergent)

 

 

Policy Uncertainty... high!

 

Slower Manufacturing Growth... (accelerating lower...)

 

and Capex Plunges...

 

Full Presentation below:

Us Eco q412 Outlook

 

Source: BloombergBriefs

 


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Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

Five words on the US economy from business owners.

Fuck Obama and his bullshit.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Dow down 128 today, FAZ up only .02 cents.  They aren't gonna let the bears get rich no matter what.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

money flowing into financials all day. just seems like a garbage correction, although i have no idea what good news is going to stop it.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

With rates negative on fixed income, with hedge funds over-invested in AAPL, and with arrears and defauls rising on Real Estate, where else are you going to go but the one sector that seems to have been absolved of its sins and guaranteed to live another day?

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

of course not. they dont want anyone to trade fundamenatals and actually make money. that would encourage more to do so

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture

I know right!!!!!!?

AAPL was up $5.06 and OIH was down $.56. 

Bullshit.

No one can see it like you and I.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

That IS fucked up Scotty. At least my DXD did move +.89 cents - +1.92%......but that is fucked UP on FAZ

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 01:56 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Yeah - the last three minute sell-off in TZA knocked a dime off the percent gain for the day - from .24 to .14 in three minutes. Still made enough to buy a stiff drink, but sheesh! Futures are still in the toilet, so tomorrow may be another down day, but these are slow leak bleed-offs for sure.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 05:55 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Would you just FUCK OFF with this nonsense.

By now you would have thought everyone would have reached the conclusion that ALL politicians are in the pockets of corporate lobbyists.

Here's a message - none of them give the slightest shit about YOU - they care about who is going to give them cash to get re-elected - they care about benefiting from legal insider trading.

Romney Obama who gives a fuck?  Does anybody actually watch these debates? If you do you are a complete fool.   It's all a charade.  You may as well watch Dancing with Stars.

The next time I see someone making these retarded partisan comments I will rip their fucking head off

 

WAKE UP PEOPLE!  YOU ARE BEING FUCKED IN THE ASS HARD - AND YOU ARE PLEADING WITH THESE COCKSUCKERS FOR MORE.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Microscopic QE-shoots!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

Now I dont know, but I been told its hard to run with the weight of gold,
Other hand I have heard it said, its just as hard with the weight of lead.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

All of this is BS since it's all based on more leverage, more debt and more credit.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

The economy is imploding, the Fed is printing, wars are waging and the only thing the Deficit President has talked about this week is Big Bird.  Someone needs to tell Obama that with trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, if he can't cut a subsidy from a profitable venture like PBS, we know he won't cut anything.

VIDEO: Sesame Street Tells Obama To Stop Big Bird Ad

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

they need a distaction. lookee over there!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

The funniest thing I've heard all week (so far until tomorrow) is O'Barry proclaiming he will fight for Big Bird.

Someone needs to tell this "brilliant" teleprompter reading idiot Big Bird is a part of the evil One Percent...as the "collective" known as OWS has a collective heart attack...lol.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I thought I heard on the radio today, possibly Bloomberg on XM, that the actor that plays Big Bird makes over $300k/ year.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

389k I think.

Caroll Spinney aka Big Bird...cannot be amused by his little gravy train act being thrust into the national spotlght by a pandering pol and his assorted acolytes at HuffPo and sneering comedians.

Some day I'll write a book...The Rise and Fall of Big Bird...subtitled...Whats for Dinner? ;-)

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Fuck Obama.

 

I'm Beetle Bailey, and I approved this message. Dammit.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

I gotta a big "bird" for ya, Obama. 

Sh*thead, lazy ass, teleprompter reading, golf playin', party-goin', narcissitic, lying fake.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Slow-walking oil/gas permits.

 

Loss of Pipeline, which has caused loss of discounted oil price from Canada.

 

Oil around 90 a barrel, gas around $3.80.

 

Fiscal cliff getting close, no action, no mention by administration or congress.

 

WWIII ready to ignite at any moment.

 

Considering the above, the economy is surprisingly resilient at this point.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Gas hit $4.29 a gallon when oil was almost $150 a barrel where I live.  Now, its $3.85 and crude is $91.  Quit exporting gas assholes.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 21:04 | Link to Comment mick68
mick68's picture

 

The stock market disconnected from reality before the crash of 1929 too. We are re-living 1929, but this time we're going to do it right.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

What I have noticed is the hope has transformed into begging for hope.

I am being asked to please give customers a reason to walk through retail doors. I thought that was the job of the retailer.

My vendors in China are begging me to place orders with them. My display vendors are begging me to place orders for POP materials. Printers are begging for me to print more catalogs.

Everyone is begging for someone to create demand for all the crap that was overproduced because people believed in the hope that the green shoots would blossom.

I planted grass this past spring. Got thousands of green shoots, but then the drought turned my lawn into a brown patch of dirt. The same exact thing hit the consumer economy right around the same time.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

You can only pull so much future demand foward to the present.  If I was in the market next year to buy a car, but I buy it today, that means I am not a customer a year from now like I would have been.  I simply won't need the car next year.  You can try and goose the economy with demand pull, but that only is going to last so long.  Then you are right back to where you started.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

You will be in the market next year if you bought a GM built by the UAW, or Unemployed Auto Workers of America. My advice, buy a bike.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

yes, but it's like a rush to the top in quicksand. the earth is sinking and you have to do all you can to stay at the top. demand pull is one of the last resorts to accomplish this.

those at the bottom of the sinking sand (meaning : consumers in debt who have lost or are about to lose their jobs) are dead men walking. they just don't know it yet.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment elderstew
elderstew's picture

Yes, yes, and so charmingly so.

File under folder "they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work"

 

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Too much truthiness.  Things are good.  Buy goods! Buy stocks!  Buy!  Buy!  Buy!

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

but but but ..Cramer said hes not giving up on housing. He doesnt lie.. does he?

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment Hi Ho Silver
Hi Ho Silver's picture

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Obama Lies...all the damn time.

 

I'm Beetle Bailey, and I wrote this message, self-approved it, and would like to hang it on a banner and fly it over the Capitol in D.C. - dammit.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Difference between the day shift and the evening shift at ZH...

Ya'll have jobs, and pay your own damn bills.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

We apparently also pay for other peoples' bills ... glad to be of assistance, you Obamaphone types.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Zadok
Zadok's picture

That's Obamapho...to lazy to enunciate I guess.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Primary wave 3 down is here folks.

 

SP500 weekly.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/standard-poors-500-weekly-october-05-2012/

 

Government thought they could stop this - silly fools.  And they spent our future to the tune of trillions - fucking assholes.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:11 | Link to Comment phoolish
phoolish's picture

When Printed Money = Growth they can make the GDP come in at whatever number they would it to.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

When you have unlimited printed money/digital money, you can make any market come in at any number you want any time you want.  They can make it go up, down, or sideways.  Whatever they want to do to suit their needs.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Labor Market Slack?  Title of Second chart should be "Unemployment Rate no longer means Anything".

Best chart in the package and they slap the wrong label on it.

Wed, 10/10/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Wow. The Capex chart is overwhelming. Thanks TD.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

I dont get it, why does anyone believe the  Bul L  Shit  stats.

http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

the only growth these days is in PM,s and SNAP

"2008 budget requests $60 billion for USDA nutrition assistance programs – a 76 percent increase since 2001. Overall, nutrition assistance programs represent 59 percent of the USDA’s annual budget"

I prefer the P.M,s

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 01:53 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

I guess I better go back to Pennsylvania to die at the place that I was born. Things are getting pretty glum. Make that grim.

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