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The Bump In The Night

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

“How many times have we stood here, you and I, surveying the field before the battle? How many times have we won? How many times must we lose to have lost all those victories and promises of victory? Just once, old friend. Just once.”
 
                                       -The Wizard
 
I know it is sometimes difficult. Europe puts out the numbers which many assume are real. Then they talk about the data as if it was real. Then they point to the numbers time and time again as if they were real and finally people make decisions and act upon the figures thinking they are real and then the train begins to go bump in the night and derailment is possible on the next track and people wonder how it happened. We are at that point where “bump” is about to happen because there is nothing left that can happen.
 
The dream is about over. Soon everyone will be waking up. It will not be a good morning.
 
After all of the horses and all of the King’s men have met, convened and had one more council of war; the bills are still unpaid. We have no solution for Cyprus, no answer for Spain and no plan for Greece as the IMF has made two things quite clear. Number one is that they will not give Greece any more money and number two is that they expect Europe to take the unavoidable financial hit and that it will not be them that is going to get left holding the proverbial bag. Now the public bondholders of Greece have already been whacked and even with a modest extension of two years in payments Greece would need $25-40 billion in new funding as Austria and the Netherlands have said they are done providing money. All of this is on one side of the equation with other being that Greece will be out of money sometime in November. This, my friends, is what is known as “Crunch Time” because there is no open door that does not lead to pain. Does the ECB take the hit and wipe out their $18 billion capital base and have to be refinanced? Does the EU Stabilization fund take it so that there will be a capital call on the participating nations which some may refuse to pay? Perhaps Germany will surreptitiously force Greece back to the Drachma so that the people of Greece take the hit while providing some sort of financing that uses Greece as a conduit so that Europe can repay itself. We are about thirty days out on this because the country of Greece is about to run out of Euros. The days of wine and roses and mucking about in the sandbox are just about over and real decisions with real consequences are about to come storming into the Great Game and I suggest you prepare your portfolios for the event.
 
 
Then the money requested by Cyprus will be nowhere what is needed if Greece returns to the Drachma as the Cypriot economy, already banged by the Greek Public Sector Involvement, will be forced to its knees as the tragedy plays itself out in Greece. Then we have the “Big Bang,” which is Spain, whom Germany contends does not need any money, which is about an accurate a statement as Wichita, Kansas can be found in Bulgaria. Spain is reeling; calls for secession, banks that are insolvent and held together by paperclips and scotch tape, regional debt that is fifty percent of the country’s total and now the downgrade by S&P with one by Moodys placing them into junk and out of the major European Indexes which can be expected shortly. “Dead man walking” would be the accurate phrase. I will tell you; when there is no place left to run and no place left to hide then it is “tag and you are it” and Europe is now days away from getting tagged.
 
You have to prepare yourself now for the possibility that Europe is a misrepresentation. You must own running shoes and be prepared to use them!

 

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Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:25 | 2877368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The shark always bumps once.....next time it will be for real.

 

They mostly come at night.......mostly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | 2877424 Stackers
Stackers's picture

All in on Adidas

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877506 dmger14
dmger14's picture

"Great!  Why don't they put Newt in charge?"

 

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:39 | 2877582 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Cat didn't make the cut.....sorry Amigo.

 

Coke or Pepsi......pick one.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:36 | 2877583 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Double post.....gotta take either more of it or less of it....I'm not really sure which one - Jackson Browne

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:54 | 2878143 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I didn't do it.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:25 | 2877376 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"You must own running shoes and be prepared to use them!"

Better yet: you must own a rocket ship and be prepared to use it.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:29 | 2877381 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I want to know what is triggering the 1/2 cent dxy selloff? the Spanish 10year is back up 10basis points. something fishey is going on in the swaps market me thinks.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:44 | 2877423 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and real fishy in crude to. for the last few days some entity is determined to get the price to somewhere i have no idea.. its so obvious if you follow the incremental tick tick. thats not a "market" folks .. really if you want it at 95 or whatever. just put it there. quit this fucked up game. oh well. were used to all these shinanigans by now. Have fun calif.. seems wall street is determined to make you suffer more with their silly games.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877446 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good post. Cali. is FUBAR, and the high gas prices are just iceing on the cake!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:01 | 2877498 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

But, but, didn't you see the initial claims report . . .

Hell, I can't even say it without laughing my ass off!!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:28 | 2877383 Quintus
Quintus's picture

"...which is about an accurate a statement as Wichita, Kansas can be found in Bulgaria..."

 

I just checked on Apple maps, and Wichita does indeed appear to be in Bulgaria.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:29 | 2877385 malikai
malikai's picture

Nonsense. Draghi says the Euro is 4eva!

Also, isn't snooki's baby the cutest little thing?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:32 | 2877389 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Awwww, c'mon I'm sure the can wouldn't object to one little kick more. I'm sure if we kick it again this time it will be different. Believe me when I say it.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:32 | 2877390 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Look at those numbers that just came in. Funny shit.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:35 | 2877397 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

You couldn't make this sh!t up, could yo...

 

oh, hang on, someone is!!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:34 | 2877394 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

So the European collapse is only "days" away. Yep. Been days away for almost a year now.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:41 | 2877413 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

While the collapse has not actually happened we must nevertheless admit that the conditions on the ground for workers, the unemployed, the pensioners and everyone in general is demonstrably worse and getting worse by the day. Total collapse is just a matter of degree.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877444 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

Possibly, but my point is the collapse is imminent until it isn't. Meanwhile we have the US stock market hovering around all time highs...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:52 | 2877456 unrulian
unrulian's picture

Technically any point in the future can be measured in days including the end of the world...say in 71 days

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877507 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

Well if the author of the post were to clarify by saying that by "days", he meant anything from a couple of days to several thousand, I would suggest he go fuck himself sideways and die.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | 2877468 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

If the U.S. economy abruptly contracts by 5% in January, I don't see how Europe avoids going up in flames.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:34 | 2877395 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

From his position at the center of the universe Prez O thinks a month is just fine.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:11 | 2877399 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's down to just a handful of days now......just don't do something stupid. Call off the debate Amigo....just do it.

 

Just go golfing and hope the storm blows over.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 15:15 | 2878535 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

"Apres moi election, le deluge" - Obama the First

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:38 | 2877407 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

How much shit can one fan take?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:40 | 2877411 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Who cares...it's still under warranty. Hit it hard!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:40 | 2877410 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have seen some different sites and media lately trumpeting that the debt to gdp is at it's lowest point in blah blahg blah time the last few days. What are these pople referring to? Can someone help me out here?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:42 | 2877418 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Please provide link(s).

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877438 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-hits-a-6-year-low-2012-10

I saw Jon Stewart say the same thing last night. I get that he might have a tiny slight liberal bias. I was just wondering about the math. I guess these guys are referring to private debt, which is "being deleveraged" which is bullshit. But if you have any thoughts I am all ears.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877439 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-hits-a-6-year-low-2012-10

I saw Jon Stewart say the same thing last night. I get that he might have a tiny slight liberal bias. I was just wondering about the math. I guess these guys are referring to private debt, which is "being deleveraged" which is bullshit. But if you have any thoughts I am all ears.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:26 | 2877793 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

you got to love debt to GDP ratios.  It gives them the opportunity to lower the debt by raising the GDP.   Then they can hedonically add another 1.6 trillion to GDP to complensate the "eCONomy" for foreclosures. 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:41 | 2877414 CrabGrassKila
CrabGrassKila's picture

Close your eyes real tight, Blow your Nose real loud, Tap your feet together 3 times, and say:

Thank goodness for places like Boys Town....... 

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | 2877428 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

From the cradle of civilization to its grave

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | 2877430 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Stages of grief:

Shock: What?

Anger: Fuck!

Bargaining: Seriously?

Depression: Damn.

Acceptance.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877496 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Step Six.....go hang with Vera. Learn to cope in your new third world country.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTYRtmK-EdU&feature=related

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:22 | 2877787 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

Stages of grief:

Shock: What?

Anger: Fuck!

Bargaining: Seriously?

Depression: Damn.

Acceptance:  Fuck me!

 

Fixed it !

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:46 | 2877432 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 There must be a lot of new babysitters out there with that B/S jobs print! They sure as hell didn't come from this number.

05:30  USD   Trade Balance -44.2B -44.0B -42.5B
Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:51 | 2877455 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Is it possible that the U.S. and Europe both go over the fiscal cliff at the same time?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:52 | 2877457 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

This is the same old stuff that pops up every six months or so.  These stories are getting old. 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:54 | 2877472 unrulian
unrulian's picture

yea...sometime in december...i'd say around the 21st

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:33 | 2877815 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

That was Argentina 2001 and they don't talk about it either.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | 2877474 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Seems like we are facing a choice between a Rothschild zionist engineered collapse, designed to stampede the public into a single currency (and life as slaves) and a Greek default that results in Greece returning to the Drachma, hopefully claiming the right to issue its own currency back from the Rothschilds and then returning to financial health while the rest of Europe slowly suffocates.Greece leaving the Euro in this context represents perhaps the only ray of hope that the Rothschild tyranny can be broken and that Europe can have a positive future...Maybe the panic merchants are merely producing Rothschild funded propaganda.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:08 | 2877537 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

It worked for Iceland. So "they" just stopped talking about them.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:41 | 2877659 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Lord Evelyn wants to do us all.

Greek style

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877502 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

C'mon..... so you want me to believe the Wolf is really here this time?  Fool me 87 times, shame on you, fool me 88 times........

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:28 | 2877580 Stud Duck
Stud Duck's picture

"The holders of the US Treasury debt are sharpening their long knives in the humid darkness"

James Howard Kunstler, Aug 2009

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:04 | 2877612 TomGa
TomGa's picture

"Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) --International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Greece should get two years to meet fiscal targets and suggested debt reductions are needed before a 130 billion-euro ($167 billion) bailout can proceed."

 

And proceed it will because international bankers have to get paid back. Screw Greece.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:26 | 2877794 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Run Forest, run.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:50 | 2877876 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

"real decisions with real consequences are about to come"

Ask the people over there about real decisions and real consequences. My italian cousins which were "the rich ones" in the family are already broken after two generations of hard work since WWII. I can immagine (and I can read) what is going on in Greece not to mention Ireland and Spain.

Golden Down is "helping" the greek police. "Greece's far-right Golden Dawn party is increasingly assuming the role of law enforcement officers on the streets of the bankrupt country, with mounting evidence that Athenians are being openly directed by police to seek help from the neo-Nazi group, analysts, activists and lawyers say."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/28/greek-police-victims-neo-nazi

And this: "greeks anti-fascists tortured by the police"

http://www.comedonchisciotte.org/site/modules.php?name=News&file=article...

It seems "real consequences" are already in progress.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 15:00 | 2878457 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

What this article is really talking about is the loss of one layer of government.  Which will it be?

The locals need their local government.  Foreign aid for Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, France will need the EU.  There is no need for the "National Government".

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 15:24 | 2878570 Meatier Shower
Meatier Shower's picture

Wolf! Wolf!

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