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Data Massaging Continues: Initial Claims Tumble To 339K Lowest Since 2008, Far Below Lowest Expectation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC's Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures." Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise.

It is also sad that the US "economy" has devolved to such trivial data fudging on a week by week basis, which makes even the Chinese Department of Truth appear amateurish by comparison. Needless to say, Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K in the past week but who's counting. Finally, what is the reason for ongoing QEternity if the employment situation is now back to normal. Finally, in completely ignored news, because who needs global trade when you have toner cartridge, and generally ink, the US trade deficit in August rose by 4.1% to $44.2 billion, on expectations of a deterioration to $44.0 billion. Then again nobody talks about the US trade deficit during presidential debates so all good here.

Jobless Claims beat by the most since May 2009 and is the lowest since Jan 2008 - the new normal...

 

with the biggest 3-week drop since Jan 2006..

 

and the idiocy of relentless revisiosn continues...

 

as the six-sigma beat plays out...

 


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Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Welch just called me, his iAnalysis; "Bullshit"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

"This is just getting stupid"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well i beieve em.

they couldn't say it if it wasn't true you know...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

It's those damned boys from Chicago, the gang run by that Capone guy. I wonder what role Rahm Emanuel and Bill Daily played in this.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

"one large state" didn't report

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment N. B. Forrest
N. B. Forrest's picture

figures never lie, but liars figure.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

If one state doesn't report, then how do we report an number? Wouldn't it make sense to wait until all number are in.
Also just take sometime, to look at the numbers and look around in your cities.
Things are still not in great shape.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Drudge picked this story up, enjoy the hits Tylers.  But for the rest of us, goodbye site performance for today...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Fuck you Drudge!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment ndotken
ndotken's picture

The only "large state" large enough to skew the numbers that far is California, whose government employees just happen to be one of Obama's largest campaign contributors. Jobless claims in CA are just under 50K, which just happens to be about the amount of the "massaging". Corruption and theft really know no boundaries in the Obama Administration.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

My thoughts exactly. California's "leaders" constantly brag about their ability to influence national policy. I would not be surprised if this was a calculated move to influence the election.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

CA was my first thought as well.  The fact they won't reveal which state it is also is very telling.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It's a Texas asswhoopin'.  Or it's a lie. Or they are runnung out of people to fire, and if that's the case, it's pretty much over.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Seriously. I can't even bring the page up sometimes. Look on the bright side, maybe more people will read some of the other postings and awaken.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

That explains a lot. The site is barely functional for me. At first I thought it might be a DDOS attack. Oh well. Guess I actually have to work today.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Remember when everyone used to consider Chinese economic data as either complete fabrications or massive exagerations. No one would trust or give them respect. America clearly isn't paying attention to the consequences of what they are doing.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment oldschool
oldschool's picture

Right.  How convenient.  When was the last time that happened, I wonder?  

So maybe the Chicago gang stole this headline.  Now, the question is how quickly can someone get that missing state's number, and then get the story behind its omission?  By tonight would be nice, at least for one of those factoids.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They are the BLS with the S standing for STATISTICS.  Why would an organization just leave the number at 0 from the missing state???  Wouldn't statisticians EXTRAPOLATE that number based on the numbers coming in from the other 49 states and the recent historic trend from the missing state???

It truly is the BS and not BLS.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

Had the same thought. It is getting more than stupid, it is getting downright scary that these things are happening.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Three guys at the BLS had qualms about being so blatant with fudging the numbers. One is sleeping with the fishes at the bottom of Lake Michigan while the other two are being reeducated at Guantanamo. The Chicago crowd's role was to provide the concrete galoshes.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

49 States, 57 States what's the difference? Unless the Dork from Delaware from has repeatedly been making a 49 state mistake in debate prep.

is all that matters to those seeking to maintain the status quo...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Maybe the Feds are no longer recognizing some slacker state that just isn't doing well. Maybe its Texas, we all know they are part of the 47% that won't vote for Obama. Or maybe its a state that is in negotiations for sale to China. We gotta keep deleveraging if we want to have goodies to dole out to cronies. Defeatism will not be tolerated! 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

These numbers would make Capone and Giancana blush!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

This is WAY beyond stupid now. We are now in full blown retard mode. Hell, even my 14 year old is saying: "Dad, what they say and what I see are too different things."

A 14 YEAR OLD folks with no guidance from me. I intentially haven't brought it up in years because I wanted a more honest opinion (and not one to try to please his parents). But, then again, we unschool so he is already in a different league.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Re-education's the key. Broach the subject with the young and they get it. They aren't blindsided by the bullshit story that schools serve up, which is paper currencies have stable value and that the value of their savings grows, as that magic Compounding Interest multiplier makes them all rich.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:44 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

You find the stupidity and ignorance everywhere.

 The worst cases I've found among older retired military people. Patriotic. They just can't imagine that things aren't as they always believed. Little experience with finance. Have often sacrificed much. But in these matters, extremely naive. (And Im from a military family and served myself.)

"I have seen the enemy and he is us."

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

+ 1

Read that article and the first words from my mouth were "This is fukn' ridiculous !"

There are people I know (actually fine individuals ) and I just have to stay away from them till the damned election is over and Whoever is sworn in. They believe all of these lies - and can't imagine questioning any of it. The really sad part is the criminals tell the Big Lie, because they seem to be able to get away with it.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Remember when FDX warned a month ago?  Now the stock is well above its pre-warning level. BULLISH.

**

Do you think Jamie Dimon would swagger in a world-televised public meeting two days before JPM posts 3Q earnings if JPM did not have blowout earnings?  BULLISH

**

Do you think Team O is going to allow any bad data to reach the market before the elections?

BULLISH

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So there is is slaughterer...I was wondering what was going to levitate this market now that QEinfinity has been thrown aside. Fudged data and bullshit earnings.....it just seems so easy.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

So many sheep out there... someone had to put the "laughter" in "slaughter".

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Lohn Jocke, snooki's baby is cute.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I'm going to audition my daughters for babysitting.  She's gonna need a good roll model.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@slaughterer

I don't disagree with your assertions, just question who is left shorting these issues to cause a massive rip.  I don't think there are that many buyers left, so where is the kindling to start another bull run?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think you are seeing it with Apple from the minute it hit 625. There are a ton of shops out there that had awful performance this year. They are probably desperately buying any dip hoping to make up a few bps. That's just my guess.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

There was a massive speculative short wave initiated at 1470/AAPL$700.  

They wll slowly want to take profits.  They are not threatened with losses.  

Then there are the technical shorts entered at much lower levels.  They are a little more desperate. 

Kindling to start fire?  Massaged earnings, with most surprises located in ... ta dah ... big financials ... and tech.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

For how long did Apple stay down last time they disappointed?

Anyway, entirely in line with everyone ignoring Spain downgrades. News or fundamentals just don't matter. It's all about Benny and the Inkjets.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL stayed down less than 2 days last time they disappointed.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

 

 

Jamie Demon is the president's favorite banker insider false information and walla

 

Stocks rise on jobless claims data

 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/11/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN

 

John Williams on Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate

snip

 

John Williams: I normally put out a commentary on the numbers, and, in this one, I raised the possibility of politics as a factor. The problem is very serious misreporting of the numbers and the result is what appears to be a bogus unemployment rate. The BLS reported a drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8%, three-tenths of a percentage point, which runs counter to what is being experienced in the marketplace.

 

What few people realize is that the headline unemployment rate is calculated each month using a unique set of seasonal adjustments. The August unemployment rate, which was 8.1%, was calculated using what BLS calls a "concurrent seasonal factor adjustment." Each month the agency recalculates the series to adjust for regular seasonal patterns tied to the school year or holiday shopping season or whatever is considered relevant. The next month, it does the same thing using another set of seasonal factors. Rather than publish a number that's consistent with the prior month's estimate, it recalculates everything, including the previous month, but it doesn't publish the revised number from the previous month.

 

The assumption is that the monthly recalculations don't make much difference over time, but they do. The depth and the protraction of the current severe economic downturn have thrown off the annual seasonal-factor adjustments. The result is very volatile seasonal factors month-to-month. That means the new calculations for the September number may have resulted in a very significant revision to the August number. Again, though, the BLS doesn't publish that, so the headline August-to-September 2012 change in the unemployment rate is not consistent and not comparable. Last December, when the BLS put the seasonal adjustments on a consistent basis for the year, as it does once per year, the November 2011 unemployment rate had just been reported as showing four-tenths of a percentage point drop – an unusually large monthly decline that never took place. When revised to a consistent basis, the drop in headline November unemployment revised to two-tenths of a percent. That is a big change. I think something like that happened here.

 

The BLS knows what the actual number is. It has an actual estimate for August, which is consistent with September, but it doesn't publish it because it says it "doesn't want to confuse data users." But it is putting out numbers that have no meaning month-to-month. One month before the election and a month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Quantitative Easing (QE) 3, is not a time to have inaccurate numbers. The BLS should publish the consistent numbers now.

 

more

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep3/john-williams-lies-unemployment-rate.html

 

Enrollment in Food Stamps, Medicaid, and Disability Far Outpaces Job Growth in Last 4 Years

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

Stock is up because they announced layoffs.  When you don't see any growth in revenues you need to reduce costs.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

This is getting stupid, these guys are getting better than the Kremlin bullshit at its best!!!!!!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Jack Welch is making the rest of us sound like kooks.

The numbers ARE manipulated and phony, but NOT on a one-month basis, which is what Welch is pushing. That's tin-foil hat stuff.

The numbers are manipulated on a weekly and monthly basis. They are ALL manipulated! Not just the ones before the election.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The simple fact is that they won't even release the weights for the seasonal adjustments - which essentially means they are entirely at liberty to change the filter on a month by month basis.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

That's right. Here is the key now... Now that they need to go full retard with the numbers, they need to make it seem political... Both on the number fudging front and on the calling out the number fudging front. It keeps people perfectly divided. Idiot republicans can call it Chicago politics, and idiot democrats can roll their eyes and call the claims of fudging typical sour grape republican BS.

The goal is to always keep the battle political... It helps to hide the truth, in plain sight. Drudge has this article linked... I sure hope people wake up to this false R vs. D charade. The BLS is a propaganda machine. All of the numbers are propaganda. Lies, damn lies and statistics. Inflation running hot? Change the formula, take out food and oil, print. Unemployment running high, publish U2, hide U6 and let the sheep look at a happy number. It's all bullshit. This isn't a democrat or a republican thing, it's a government thing.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

People, people, don't get your panties in a bunch.

We have started incorporating the employment numbers for Hookers, full and part time, Dope dealers, casual and serious, Ebay sellers and lawn sales.

When you think about it that's a lot of earners.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment MRCDH
MRCDH's picture

Following are three quotes that capture what appears to be happening relative to information that is being released:

1) "All this was inspired by the principle--which is quite true within itself--that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."—Adolf Hitler , Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X

2) "In our country the lie has become not just a moral category, but a pillar of the state."---Alexander Solzhenitsyn

3) A lie told often enough becomes the truth. ---Lenin

Shame is not a word in their vocabulary who play so loosely with the truth.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Data Massaging Continues:

 

At little to the left please....that's the spot!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Massage? This is a run 'n' tug.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

In England the Queen calls that wanking.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Thomas

"run 'n' tug"

Now that's an olympic event everyone would watch.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I do beleve the term is called "RUB & TUG"

A massage with a hand job at the end.

In the case of the initial claims, its more like a REACH-AROUND.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

GetZeeGold

MR.GORE!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Word is.....Mrs. Gore....was not amused.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

GetZeeGold

But she knew how to keep her mouth shut.

Fuck she didn't even get a couple of political positions like Hillary.

Poor bargainer our Tipper.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

Paging Jack Welch......

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

You will not be hearing from Jack anymore...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Secession begins, one state at a time

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

GolfHatesMe

I read the Sioux already started.

You live near them?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Nope, just want to see where I need to move if one state is giving the double middle fingers to the BLS survey monkeys, I may want to go there.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment jeff314
jeff314's picture

No need for QE anymore then....

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

#winning

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

I'm from CREEP (the Committee to RE-Elect teh President), and I authorized this data release.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Super Marco
Super Marco's picture

My friends it finally happened, absurdem 1+1= 1

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

absurdem 1+1= 1

 

= Full Tilt Retard.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

GetZeeGold

There is nothing above "Full Retard".

Full tilt retard means you are just tipping the fucker.

Next it's reclining followed by prone.

All three are accompanied by crying and screaming.

This ain't cow tipping you know.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

This ain't cow tipping you know.


It's just a damn video......the Hindus need to get over it already.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Super Marco
Super Marco's picture

Please CNBC Liesman vs Santelli! we want more we want more!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh shit.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

<omitted, duplicate post to GetZee Gold>  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh shit.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Santelli may not be enough, cue up the 'Bob Sagett' tourettes guy (RIP).

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

You are absolutely right this is stupid and retarded I am bailing on this shit show .... hear that NSA?????

if you dont hear from me again you know i have been 'neutralized' wave to the drone for me

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

everything is fixed, no need for debates or elections.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

ministry of truth claim: UNIMPLOYMENT IS EMPLOYMENT

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

USDX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD.

USDJPY looks interesting. It's since popped up further.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/10/11/forex-3/

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Even the sheeples will not believe this. And LIEsman was stunned. He did not even believe it.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

You mean to tell me he didn't have the numbers ahead of time???

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

When the subtractions are added back in, there is going to be a very ugly set of numbers.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I think algos just add, they are not permitted to subtract.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Cue Rick Santelli head explosion...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment kill switch
kill switch's picture

The U.S. is nothing morre than a Hollywood set...a creeping coup!!  Run by grocery clerks.

 

Loved that line Marlon

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

One large state, huh?  Looks like the Chicago boyz done it again.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Yikes
Yikes's picture

I'm betting that it's a blue state: IL, NY, or CA

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Yikes

Funny, that's the exact 3 I was thinking myself.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Yikes
Yikes's picture

Yep, CA.

From Business Insider:

-------------------------

Since then, the argument has raged on, and there have been a variety of different reports and interpretations.

Well, we're glad to say that we've finally gotten to the bottom of what happened.

We spoke to a source at the Labor Department. According to this source, who is an analyst at the Department, here's what happened:

  • ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week's jobless claims. Assertions that "a large state" was excluded from the report are patently false.

HOWEVER...

  • It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state--California--were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state's jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.
  • The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week's jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week's or the following week's. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.
  • The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed totalled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to "normalize" the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.
  • This week's "normalized" jobless claims number, therefore, would be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.

In other words, had all of California's jobless claims been processed in time to make the jobless-claims release, this jobless number would still have been better than economists were expecting--but not as much better as it appeared.

Again, the as-yet-unprocessed claims will appear in future reports. So next week's number may well be higher than expected.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Probably all three Yen....after all, why lie "a little"?

Wanna be a (lying) bear? Be a fibbing GRIZZLY!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Yea, I that noticed Liesman crawled back into his "test tube", and slithered away! He wanted to go jump on the red line to the BLS. Either that or he wanted to put his body armor on before Santelli gets to him!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Santelli I find usually lacks sharp teeth at the moments when they are most necessary. He is better than the rest of them but.....

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I agree...he loses his cool and then his point gets lost in the screaming. He wasn't like that long ago ,but I guess being in the lion's den of daily lies  might make me want to scream at somebody too.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment khotel
khotel's picture

I love the smell of manipulated jobless claims in the morning.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Last week included a federal holiday so people only had 4 days to file claims.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

conveniently NOT included, unlike the "it was the weather" excuse....

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Every day is a new surprise in how low and pathetic this country has become. 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

No kidding Doc. I have become truly jaded and yet they still find a way to make me say Wow every day. This one does not surprise me though. I truly believe there is NO way Obama and Ben came this far to trip at the finish line. Everything will look spectacular for the next month.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's become so sickenning that I can't even begin to decribe my feelings of disgust. Then you look at the other "financial" web sites and the propoganda is so blatant that it makes me want to vomit.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Don't let it get you crazy. It's like you said about gravity yesterday. They have suspended it temporarily but man when it comes down it will hurt. Some people will listen to you and some are just destined to get their ass kicked. In the meantime it is almost humerous watching how far desperate gimmicks can convince real people that their lives are not getting worse right in front of their eyes. I was a Psych major and I never saw experiments this nuts.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Acet
Acet's picture

You mean those sites are for real!???

And here I was thinking that their farsical, ridiculous and outrageous propaganda was for humouristic purposes and as a subtle criticism of the modern world.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Now someone tell us again how the Fed is non political you couldn't possibly have anyone working closer together then obama and ben. Look how blatant Forbes is about it...

Memo To Investors: Bernanke And Obama Are Your Business Partners

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jerrybowyer/2012/10/10/memo-to-investors-bernanke-and-obama-are-your-business-partners/

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Here's another surprise for you-

Because of the War on <Insert Excuse Here>, all available digital ink resources have been redirected to Treasury and the Federal Reserve, and this left the GPO unable to even produce PDFs of Titles 42-51 of CFR (which are supposed to published as of October 1).

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

(B)ul(L)(S)hit

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I am actually not getting this, the owners win with ether a Obama or Rommney win, so why risk a loss of confidence like this?  Are they no longer following the script?

 

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment kill switch
kill switch's picture

 

If you remember back a few months ago in Chantilly Virginia the Bilderberg group met. In hat meeting several things where leaked that indicated Obama was not moving fast enough in the grand design to destroy the remnants of the middle class and the geopolitical collapse. There analysis of Romney was he would intensify the attack on Iran and be a better pusher of the NWO diagram..In short there is a profound differences,,don't run to the false safety of consensus in this played no difference card, not real.. The false employment data is a diversion to escort the belief that the fix is in for Obama, It's not!!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures.""

The second read I noticed the word 'quarterly' - are they f**king kidding or what ?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

how dare you second guess these numbers. and the crude market knew of this a day ago. isnt that illegal? oops. sorry. Its" horny asian nurses 3" day at the sec

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment james larson
james larson's picture

Ive never never seen the actual and seasonal adjusted figure so close

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture

 

You guys are so funny, everything is negative yet put in perspective things are certainly better. Even if the number is 340k,350k, 360k - remember last year the number was 402k. I don't how bad your math skills are, but a number below 402k is better.

 

Instead of trying to 'spin' everything, how about looking at realty and the trend. The trend is from extremely high weekly unemployment claims to lower levels. Is there more to go? Of course, but the trend is moving in the right direction.

 

And don't forget, this is with the election and fiscal cliff overhanging the economy. No smart businessman would hire people before year-end. With these issues to be resolved, we should see extremely strong growth next year no doubt as the housing market picks up and companies use their historic levels of profitability to upgrade and capex

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"...after another 10 years of trillion dollar deficits, we'll FINALLY be where we were when we only ran $400bn deficits."

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

"no doubt as the housing market picks up and companies use their historic levels of profitability to upgrade and capex"

 

They have been saying this since 2008, Since summer of recovery,  is the plan just to keep saying it for 10 more years.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture

I guess you don't actually read the data from housing that in many markets prices are nicely off the bottom. It will take over 10 years to exceed the previous top as that was created through artifically means, but prices are moving up...

 

You don't even need to read the data if you're a conspiracy guy, you can just look at the corporate reports from home builders - Toll is making record profits and sales, inventory and backlog orders are up massively - are they 'inventing' these numbers? LOL stop being so biased in trying to justify your opinion and look at the real data

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

yeah, because comparing costs from four years ago in direct dollar nominal terms makes perfect sense.

the fact of the matter is, which fewer good paying jobs for the middle class, and declining purchasing power coupled with rapidly rising inflation equals no real housing recovery.

you're posting on ZH and you really need this explained to you...?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

*banging head against wall*

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

i  agree...i love me some obama and his criminal gangstas....obama for life and shaky schumer for treasury....

dont want to live in cement shoes

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Only if the number of people in the workforce remains constant.  Which it hasn't.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

QEinfinity workin its wonders.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

The only true indicator of the unemployment rate will be when an employer receives less than 100 applications for a part time miminum wage, no benefits job posting.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment james larson
james larson's picture

They dont even get the direction correctly

 

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,063 in the week ending October 6, an increase of 25,990 from the previous week.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

At this point I'm thinking the unemployment number released just before the election will come in around 5%.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

And it will be no lie ... millions have been hired as election workers and poll watchers. /sarc

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

BTW, Biden will suck in debate against Paul Ryan.  But at least Joe has some "numbers" to wag in front of Ryan.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Zombie Investor
Zombie Investor's picture

The main thing with debates is not to commit a gaffe. Everything out of Biden's mouth is a gaffe and everyone accepts that as normal, so there's little chance he can lose.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

i think i saw jack swimming in da ocean....dont quote me but the kremlin got nuthin on the chicago gang...good to be a gangsta

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

isn't it great that government agencies are not influenced by the current administration during an election year

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment crimson
crimson's picture

I don't know what you people are so fired up about - they just reversed the numbers! they meant 393k.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Yep.  Only 18 minutes more 'til we watch the magical market levitate with unicorn farts and Hopium fairy dust.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment oldschool
oldschool's picture

Numbers don't lie.  Politicians do.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

The difference between the fucktards who threatened to leave the country if a Republican is elected and me, is that I LEFT the country in 2008.  I will be be relinquishing my US citizenship next year to become a German citizen.  Why, you ask?  Because if O is re-elected I expect more draconian measures against those of us working overseas and the taxes we pay the US (in addition to our host countries).  Never forget, Obama hates white people, and will be more than happy to conficate their private retirement accounts to keep the "gimmedats" on coming to Holders "people."

No, in the long run, Romney won't be any better.  But in the short run, we might have a little breathing space to convert our retirement savings into bullets, bullion, and beans.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

Good luck with Merkel and the Euro boyz...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"All is well"

Rally on bitchez!  (pay no attention to those of us stacking or preparing to leave for our private islands)  All is well.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Obama is a sad, sad man.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anyone who wants to brag about 339,000 unemployment claims is totaly out of touch with reality and delusional if they think that gives them a boost. People dont care about numbers, they care about FREE OBAMAO PHONES!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

" Labor Dept said one large state didnt report additional quarterly figures as expected, accouning for a substantial part of the decrease."

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Reuters: Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest in Four and a Half Years

should read...

"Incomplete Jobless Claims Data Might Have Changed from Previous Week, But We Don't Know"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL is manufacturing the IPAD MINI solely for Obama: these cute little devices are to be distributed for free to all unemployed and starving citizens on Nov. 4th under the name the O-PAD.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Reuters: Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest in Four and a Half Years

should read...

"Incomplete Jobless Claims Data Might Have Changed from Previous Week, But We Don't Know"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

with all due respect TD, things have been really stupid for quite some time now.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

So do you think the unions have enough bucks in their coffers that they could tell their members NOT to file for unemployment until after the elections, and that the unions would pay them until then?

My research shows that profit growth has fallen below the level to generate job growth.  So the very opposite of what we are seeing reported should be happening.

Another anolmony is tat the corporate profits number as reported by the GDP now reflects higher year over year profit growth rates than the 1700 companies in the Value Line Study and higher growth rates than the S&P 500 have been reporting.

So either the smalll businesses in the US are going full out, or the data has been screwed with big time.

And it all started to look rather bizarre when the BEA came out and revised their GDP numbers last spring(2012).  Suddenly we had wide swings in their corporate profit numbers quarter to quarter, wheras the Value Line and S&P data remained in a consistent trend.

 

 

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Perhaps these are derBanke's new 'tools' ... after all, he does have an 'employment' mandate (I thought elected reps had those), and he is used to just making shit up.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

    Let's see now:  3 more weeks of -30,000 jobless claims before elections....that would bring the Unemploymnt rate to somewhere around 7.3 per cent.    Somebody plse get JW a straight-jacket!

     Anyway, we are all passengers on the bus heading full-speed into the proverbial brick wall irrelevant as to who the driver is.

    Buy physical gold and silver.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

The true level of unemployment is the holy grail of statistics.

Without employment or a society that can offer it to "everybody" what will those with no unemployment live on? They will exist no matter how many of the population you decide to wipe out. Note unemployment is a % of the total population and is determined by the efficiency of the economy.

In global terms, a single populations, then which portion of the world is not getting any work? Next time a politician says we are going to improve the efficiency think what this means for unemployment. Where unemployment becomes a problem the politicians can't debate and conceal on every turn is what is permitted for people with nothing do live on do? NO LAW WILL EVER HOLD UP ON EXPECTING PEOPLE TO LIVE ON NOTHING!

Try this, your income is now considered nothing so have can you be expected to pay taxes? Government will then tell you that you cannot live on nothing pay your taxes.

Go and ask Obama or Romney the former is foodstamps the latter by the nature of words he seems to frequently utter and defines the individual would be?

Man was a clever f^&ker that created all these wonderous things to make himself more efficienct to the point he can't provide enough work for everybody and destroys his own construct of laws in the process. Utterly f%^king stupid!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Why do I think this "unnamed state" is Taxifornia? I mean they are just kickin' economic ass out there!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Roland99
Roland99's picture

Um...California is mentioned specifically in the numbers' detail.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Lowest since 2008?

Coincidence?

Think not.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

This article has been linked by the Drudge Report. This is like the old "Slashdot Effect".

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

well unemployment is,in fact, one the rise here in NY so...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So when will IL report their number to the BLS, November 7th?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

These do not reflect the true seriousness of the jobs situation. People are getting off the rolls, you pretty much have the take a cavity search to let any employer hire you, and people are getting part-time work with no benefits and low-to-low median pay.

the shit is getting worse, and there's nothing Obamney can do anything about it.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

I am shocked, shocked!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Why do they bother to publish a number if they know it is wrong?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment flacorps
flacorps's picture

Algorithms (and sheeple) eat headlines, not body text.

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