Data Massaging Continues: Initial Claims Tumble To 339K Lowest Since 2008, Far Below Lowest Expectation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC's Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures." Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight. Everything else is now noise.

It is also sad that the US "economy" has devolved to such trivial data fudging on a week by week basis, which makes even the Chinese Department of Truth appear amateurish by comparison. Needless to say, Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K in the past week but who's counting. Finally, what is the reason for ongoing QEternity if the employment situation is now back to normal. Finally, in completely ignored news, because who needs global trade when you have toner cartridge, and generally ink, the US trade deficit in August rose by 4.1% to $44.2 billion, on expectations of a deterioration to $44.0 billion. Then again nobody talks about the US trade deficit during presidential debates so all good here.

Jobless Claims beat by the most since May 2009 and is the lowest since Jan 2008 - the new normal...

 

with the biggest 3-week drop since Jan 2006..

 

and the idiocy of relentless revisiosn continues...

 

as the six-sigma beat plays out...

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Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:44 | 2877425 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Welch just called me, his iAnalysis; "Bullshit"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:47 | 2877434 Thomas
Thomas's picture

"This is just getting stupid"

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877441 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well i beieve em.

they couldn't say it if it wasn't true you know...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:49 | 2877448 Thomas
Thomas's picture

It's those damned boys from Chicago, the gang run by that Capone guy. I wonder what role Rahm Emanuel and Bill Daily played in this.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | 2877481 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

"one large state" didn't report

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877505 N. B. Forrest
N. B. Forrest's picture

figures never lie, but liars figure.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:51 | 2877590 Shocker
Shocker's picture

If one state doesn't report, then how do we report an number? Wouldn't it make sense to wait until all number are in.
Also just take sometime, to look at the numbers and look around in your cities.
Things are still not in great shape.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:45 | 2877663 redpill
redpill's picture

Drudge picked this story up, enjoy the hits Tylers.  But for the rest of us, goodbye site performance for today...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:11 | 2877693 fuu
fuu's picture

Fuck you Drudge!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:12 | 2877774 ndotken
ndotken's picture

The only "large state" large enough to skew the numbers that far is California, whose government employees just happen to be one of Obama's largest campaign contributors. Jobless claims in CA are just under 50K, which just happens to be about the amount of the "massaging". Corruption and theft really know no boundaries in the Obama Administration.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:20 | 2877785 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

My thoughts exactly. California's "leaders" constantly brag about their ability to influence national policy. I would not be surprised if this was a calculated move to influence the election.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:16 | 2877954 redpill
redpill's picture

CA was my first thought as well.  The fact they won't reveal which state it is also is very telling.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:21 | 2877970 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It's a Texas asswhoopin'.  Or it's a lie. Or they are runnung out of people to fire, and if that's the case, it's pretty much over.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:16 | 2877699 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Seriously. I can't even bring the page up sometimes. Look on the bright side, maybe more people will read some of the other postings and awaken.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:17 | 2877778 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

That explains a lot. The site is barely functional for me. At first I thought it might be a DDOS attack. Oh well. Guess I actually have to work today.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | 2877516 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Remember when everyone used to consider Chinese economic data as either complete fabrications or massive exagerations. No one would trust or give them respect. America clearly isn't paying attention to the consequences of what they are doing.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:46 | 2877599 oldschool
oldschool's picture

Right.  How convenient.  When was the last time that happened, I wonder?  

So maybe the Chicago gang stole this headline.  Now, the question is how quickly can someone get that missing state's number, and then get the story behind its omission?  By tonight would be nice, at least for one of those factoids.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:20 | 2877633 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They are the BLS with the S standing for STATISTICS.  Why would an organization just leave the number at 0 from the missing state???  Wouldn't statisticians EXTRAPOLATE that number based on the numbers coming in from the other 49 states and the recent historic trend from the missing state???

It truly is the BS and not BLS.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:39 | 2877655 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

Had the same thought. It is getting more than stupid, it is getting downright scary that these things are happening.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:02 | 2877499 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Three guys at the BLS had qualms about being so blatant with fudging the numbers. One is sleeping with the fishes at the bottom of Lake Michigan while the other two are being reeducated at Guantanamo. The Chicago crowd's role was to provide the concrete galoshes.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:31 | 2877585 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

49 States, 57 States what's the difference? Unless the Dork from Delaware from has repeatedly been making a 49 state mistake in debate prep.

is all that matters to those seeking to maintain the status quo...

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:27 | 2877721 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Maybe the Feds are no longer recognizing some slacker state that just isn't doing well. Maybe its Texas, we all know they are part of the 47% that won't vote for Obama. Or maybe its a state that is in negotiations for sale to China. We gotta keep deleveraging if we want to have goodies to dole out to cronies. Defeatism will not be tolerated! 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 13:33 | 2878043 PAWNMAN
PAWNMAN's picture

These numbers would make Capone and Giancana blush!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:59 | 2877491 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

This is WAY beyond stupid now. We are now in full blown retard mode. Hell, even my 14 year old is saying: "Dad, what they say and what I see are too different things."

A 14 YEAR OLD folks with no guidance from me. I intentially haven't brought it up in years because I wanted a more honest opinion (and not one to try to please his parents). But, then again, we unschool so he is already in a different league.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:15 | 2877562 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Re-education's the key. Broach the subject with the young and they get it. They aren't blindsided by the bullshit story that schools serve up, which is paper currencies have stable value and that the value of their savings grows, as that magic Compounding Interest multiplier makes them all rich.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:44 | 2877751 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

You find the stupidity and ignorance everywhere.

 The worst cases I've found among older retired military people. Patriotic. They just can't imagine that things aren't as they always believed. Little experience with finance. Have often sacrificed much. But in these matters, extremely naive. (And Im from a military family and served myself.)

"I have seen the enemy and he is us."

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:36 | 2877737 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

+ 1

Read that article and the first words from my mouth were "This is fukn' ridiculous !"

There are people I know (actually fine individuals ) and I just have to stay away from them till the damned election is over and Whoever is sworn in. They believe all of these lies - and can't imagine questioning any of it. The really sad part is the criminals tell the Big Lie, because they seem to be able to get away with it.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:48 | 2877440 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Remember when FDX warned a month ago?  Now the stock is well above its pre-warning level. BULLISH.

**

Do you think Jamie Dimon would swagger in a world-televised public meeting two days before JPM posts 3Q earnings if JPM did not have blowout earnings?  BULLISH

**

Do you think Team O is going to allow any bad data to reach the market before the elections?

BULLISH

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | 2877459 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So there is is slaughterer...I was wondering what was going to levitate this market now that QEinfinity has been thrown aside. Fudged data and bullshit earnings.....it just seems so easy.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | 2877518 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

So many sheep out there... someone had to put the "laughter" in "slaughter".

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:13 | 2877556 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Lohn Jocke, snooki's baby is cute.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:45 | 2877598 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I'm going to audition my daughters for babysitting.  She's gonna need a good roll model.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:56 | 2877480 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@slaughterer

I don't disagree with your assertions, just question who is left shorting these issues to cause a massive rip.  I don't think there are that many buyers left, so where is the kindling to start another bull run?

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:58 | 2877487 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think you are seeing it with Apple from the minute it hit 625. There are a ton of shops out there that had awful performance this year. They are probably desperately buying any dip hoping to make up a few bps. That's just my guess.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:01 | 2877494 slaughterer
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There was a massive speculative short wave initiated at 1470/AAPL$700.  

They wll slowly want to take profits.  They are not threatened with losses.  

Then there are the technical shorts entered at much lower levels.  They are a little more desperate. 

Kindling to start fire?  Massaged earnings, with most surprises located in ... ta dah ... big financials ... and tech.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:04 | 2877515 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

For how long did Apple stay down last time they disappointed?

Anyway, entirely in line with everyone ignoring Spain downgrades. News or fundamentals just don't matter. It's all about Benny and the Inkjets.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:12 | 2877554 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL stayed down less than 2 days last time they disappointed.  

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 11:06 | 2877683 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

 

 

Jamie Demon is the president's favorite banker insider false information and walla

 

Stocks rise on jobless claims data

 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/11/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN

 

John Williams on Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate

snip

 

John Williams: I normally put out a commentary on the numbers, and, in this one, I raised the possibility of politics as a factor. The problem is very serious misreporting of the numbers and the result is what appears to be a bogus unemployment rate. The BLS reported a drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8%, three-tenths of a percentage point, which runs counter to what is being experienced in the marketplace.

 

What few people realize is that the headline unemployment rate is calculated each month using a unique set of seasonal adjustments. The August unemployment rate, which was 8.1%, was calculated using what BLS calls a "concurrent seasonal factor adjustment." Each month the agency recalculates the series to adjust for regular seasonal patterns tied to the school year or holiday shopping season or whatever is considered relevant. The next month, it does the same thing using another set of seasonal factors. Rather than publish a number that's consistent with the prior month's estimate, it recalculates everything, including the previous month, but it doesn't publish the revised number from the previous month.

 

The assumption is that the monthly recalculations don't make much difference over time, but they do. The depth and the protraction of the current severe economic downturn have thrown off the annual seasonal-factor adjustments. The result is very volatile seasonal factors month-to-month. That means the new calculations for the September number may have resulted in a very significant revision to the August number. Again, though, the BLS doesn't publish that, so the headline August-to-September 2012 change in the unemployment rate is not consistent and not comparable. Last December, when the BLS put the seasonal adjustments on a consistent basis for the year, as it does once per year, the November 2011 unemployment rate had just been reported as showing four-tenths of a percentage point drop – an unusually large monthly decline that never took place. When revised to a consistent basis, the drop in headline November unemployment revised to two-tenths of a percent. That is a big change. I think something like that happened here.

 

The BLS knows what the actual number is. It has an actual estimate for August, which is consistent with September, but it doesn't publish it because it says it "doesn't want to confuse data users." But it is putting out numbers that have no meaning month-to-month. One month before the election and a month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Quantitative Easing (QE) 3, is not a time to have inaccurate numbers. The BLS should publish the consistent numbers now.

 

more

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rep3/john-williams-lies-unemployment-rate.html

 

Enrollment in Food Stamps, Medicaid, and Disability Far Outpaces Job Growth in Last 4 Years

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 15:31 | 2878594 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

Stock is up because they announced layoffs.  When you don't see any growth in revenues you need to reduce costs.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:53 | 2877466 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

This is getting stupid, these guys are getting better than the Kremlin bullshit at its best!!!!!!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:03 | 2877512 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Jack Welch is making the rest of us sound like kooks.

The numbers ARE manipulated and phony, but NOT on a one-month basis, which is what Welch is pushing. That's tin-foil hat stuff.

The numbers are manipulated on a weekly and monthly basis. They are ALL manipulated! Not just the ones before the election.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:05 | 2877519 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The simple fact is that they won't even release the weights for the seasonal adjustments - which essentially means they are entirely at liberty to change the filter on a month by month basis.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 10:34 | 2877640 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

That's right. Here is the key now... Now that they need to go full retard with the numbers, they need to make it seem political... Both on the number fudging front and on the calling out the number fudging front. It keeps people perfectly divided. Idiot republicans can call it Chicago politics, and idiot democrats can roll their eyes and call the claims of fudging typical sour grape republican BS.

The goal is to always keep the battle political... It helps to hide the truth, in plain sight. Drudge has this article linked... I sure hope people wake up to this false R vs. D charade. The BLS is a propaganda machine. All of the numbers are propaganda. Lies, damn lies and statistics. Inflation running hot? Change the formula, take out food and oil, print. Unemployment running high, publish U2, hide U6 and let the sheep look at a happy number. It's all bullshit. This isn't a democrat or a republican thing, it's a government thing.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:06 | 2877522 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

People, people, don't get your panties in a bunch.

We have started incorporating the employment numbers for Hookers, full and part time, Dope dealers, casual and serious, Ebay sellers and lawn sales.

When you think about it that's a lot of earners.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 12:59 | 2877790 MRCDH
MRCDH's picture

Following are three quotes that capture what appears to be happening relative to information that is being released:

1) "All this was inspired by the principle--which is quite true within itself--that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."—Adolf Hitler , Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X

2) "In our country the lie has become not just a moral category, but a pillar of the state."---Alexander Solzhenitsyn

3) A lie told often enough becomes the truth. ---Lenin

Shame is not a word in their vocabulary who play so loosely with the truth.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:45 | 2877426 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Data Massaging Continues:

 

At little to the left please....that's the spot!

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:50 | 2877451 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Massage? This is a run 'n' tug.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 08:55 | 2877475 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

In England the Queen calls that wanking.

 

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:07 | 2877530 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Thomas

"run 'n' tug"

Now that's an olympic event everyone would watch.

Thu, 10/11/2012 - 09:31 | 2877584 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

I do beleve the term is called "RUB & TUG"

A massage with a hand job at the end.

In the case of the initial claims, its more like a REACH-AROUND.

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