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Consumer Confidence Soars To Highest Since September 2007, Biggest Beat Since 2005
In continuing the pre-election twilight zone data series, respondents to the UMichigan consumer confidence poll apparently have not a care in the world about the upcoming fiscal cliff, or record high gas prices in California for that matter, and are more confident than they have ever been in the past 5 years. With the final number printing at 83.1, well above the highest Wall Street forecast of 81.0 from DB's Joe LaVorgna of course, and 5 std deviations above the consensus forecast (a 7 year beat of expectations) of a decline to 78.0 from last month's 78.3, all one can do at this point is pull a Biden and just keep on laughing. The internal, while completely irrelevant as we have uncovered merely the latest doctored economic data set, joining the unemployment rate and the initial claims number, current conditions rose to 88.6 from 85.7, while it was expectations that set the mood, rising to the highest since July 2007 or 79.5, up from 73.5. And while last month it was the inflation expectations, both 1 and 5 year, that soared because apparently UMich was unaware these have to decline for "inflation expectations to be anchored" this time around respondents saw 5 year inflation decline from 2.8% to 2.6%, apparently confused that the only reason why expectations are soaring is because the Chairman promised to send future inflation soaring. But who cares about logic when massaging data.
Highest since Sept 2007, Biggest beat since Dec 2005
A 5-Sigma beat of economist expectations...
Charts: Bloomberg
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California excluded?
2005 in Cally was freakin ausome......not so much these daze.
You didn't! Don't tell me you took the brown acid!
I demand that issa get off his lazy ass and start a congressional investigation now! how dare they inflate the fact that people are happy with everything...the nerve of these people! don't worry...be happy
Consumer CONfidence - faded.
http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/10/12/sp-5/
2,000 UMichigan college students are very confident in the purchasing power of their student loan to buy the iphone6 next year.
2000 idiots couldn't possibly be wrong.
Just another excuse for the Yids to spend the excess reserves before the peasants figure out their money is worthless.
Kill the central bankers all over the world.
The Christmas shopping frenzy is nearly here...
Why wouldn't consumers be ecstatic...???
If only I can find my flashlight I might be able to find my way back to the portal out of Bizarro World...
What people do you know that are happy with the way this economy is going? If the country as a whole shows that 75% of the people are dissatisfied, how can such a report be true? You’re either a liberal or an idiot in which case they are usually one in the same.
We are heading toward a cliff people. With all of the blatant manipulation of almost every economic statistic that flashes red at the top of Bloomberg, CNBC, etc. despite record high gas prices, Europe still not being fixed, the US nearing its debt ceiling limit, etc. I feel it's pretty clear that we are nearing a major event. Shortly after November 6th, expect reality to return with a revengence.
Hate to say it but I think you are being optomistic that we are near a major event so we can just start over. The possibility that this is like getting attacked by the blob seems more likely. This could drag on for a long time.
The decline is "steady as she goes".
Until it doesn't. Was discussing this with friends last night. It could go either way, but I think at some point there will be a catalyzing even that speeds things up. Not sure what, though.
Oh.....like...
FUCKING ALL OUT WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST WITH IRAQ/IRAN...EUPHRASIA (nod to Stevie Wonder), Azerbaijanis, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Israel, Jordan (Michael too), Yemen, the Saudis, the Turks, and a whole LOT of US bullying; shooting, shitting and fartin in every direction - add in Russia, the Pakis, the Indians, the Talbani douches, the George Bush, Al Qaeda, Willie Wonka, and sprinkle with a big FAT dose of Chinese weaponry....
perhaps.....that
We have been through numerous catalyzing events in the last few years that the Central Planners were able to weather.
But I tend to agree that it is going to be a steady-managed slide down until the general misery index gets to the point where people become unmanageable and respond to an event. At that point, it should get pretty hairy.
We are like the preverbal frog in the slow heated pot. Food and fuel prices are through the roof, and going to get much higher. Living the life of luxury will soon change to living to survive. Buy PM's if you can afford. Food for sure, and G&A a must.
Hey, dont trust me, trust John Williams!!!!
http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php/category-table/258-hyperinflation-in-1-yearnew-john-williams-interview-oct-2012
I don't know about that. Get a feeling that is eerily similar to that of late 2007. The writing was on the wall then and no one seemed to care. Once again the writing is on the wall (referencing the non-manipulated economic indicators such as global PMI, corporate earnings, food and gas inflation, etc) and no one seems to give a shit. Plus throw in what appears to be a pending war with Syria and Iran (the FSA seems to be intentionally doing whatever it can to spark a war between Syria and NATO member Turkey - including continually fighting near the Turkish/Syrian border) and we have a lot of shit that can happen.
If the data is manipulated, as you say, as long as they're consistantly doing it then what does it matter since the trend is still positive? Meaning, you think they're adding 5 points to the data, fine and take away 5 points across the board, it doesn't change the fact that recent data is positive.
The time to buy is when people are scared, the time to sell is when people are 'sure' about something - in 2006 everyone was 'sure' about real estate, today everyone is 'sure' about gold which means we're certainly close to a top in commodities like gold and a bottom in real estate, maybe another 12-14 months etc... learn to trade, buy and hold is dead
Maybe. An increase in the war element would complete destroy your analysis however. Moreover, you are still talking about trading paper promises and when fraud is the status quo, possession becomes the law. So be nimble and never to far from cash or physical. didn't junk you BTW.
I'll proudly take credit for his red arrow.
I saw a commercial once that said trading was so simple a cave baby could do it.
Gold Top, noted. Glad the print fest is almost over.
Maybe you should leave the satire to MillionDollarBonus. If you are serious...please don't vote or reproduce.
Everyone is "sure" about gold? Makes sense, considering the vast majority of investment firms aren't heavily invested in gold. The only people that are "sure" about gold are members of the fringe blogosphere and "tin foil hat conspiracy theorirsts."
Either you are a troll, or you are a fucking idiot.
Gold is not a commodity, gold is money. That is why central banks hoard it. And based on the conservations I have, hardly anybody else is buying gold yet. It remains the refuge of a small but dedicated community.
Real estate isn't anywhere close to a bottom. If it was, and if the market was healthy, why would the Fed need to commit to mortgage securities purchases to infinity.
Maybe they just polled San Francisco and the Peninsula, then extrapolated.
.....maybe just Palo Alto, about the only spot I know of where real estate prices are headed up....thanks to some of the frothy IPO's...and Apple stock price.....like these will now be the new norm????
"These are not the stats you're looking for."
"These are not the stats we're looking for. Move along."
So, with all this great news, the Fed will be able to stop QEing?
Exactly. How did the fed get it so wrong, again? Everything is coming up roses!
Just coincidence on Bernanke's statement about continuing QE past the point where things are finally turning around? How convenient, but he wants to be sure it's for-reals real
They just polled federal workers in D.C. making a minimum of $80,000/yr.
this is almost as ridiculous as the EU awarded the nobel prize
True. I'm very confident... we are fucked.
*double bonus green arrows: FYB and Bitchez
The *Wizzard* is becoming more and more brazen with his manipulation. Is he about to step out from behind the green curtain and reveal himself?
Clicky + for you.
Easy explanation for the beat.
Californians are highly confident that they will have zero money to spend after filling up at the gas pump.
In fairness to the survey takers...there are a lot of idiots out there.
I know! I work with them
very true, but still funny
We are only polling those who do not eat nor drive
.......the price of 50 / 50 Night Train is still the same....
You're Not Your Fucking Khakis
I believe everything.......they would not tell a lie, would they? TGIF
Though I hate Rommney I think this is due to his debate performance and seeing the end of Obama.
Hate is a strong work?
You might not like his politics, but based on his personal life you have to admit he is one of the nicest guy's
LOL But he tied a dog to his frigging roof!! He will be sellout just like O and he is a warmonger. I agree.. Hate is the wrong term.
Mutts for Mitt all agree …
Better in the crate than on the plate.
Must be reading MDB's posts
Lemme guess - this is the "expectations" question:
or maybe this:
People are working more and more part-time jobs, are working more and more for undeclared wages, and are still collecting benefits...why wouldn't they be confident?
@RSloane
Last Friday, my wife got into an extended conversation with an acquaintance who went on for 30 minutes about starting up a T-shirt business to make some undeclared "side" income. Her whole conversation was about what government program she could game and how important it was for her and her handyman husband to make cash income that they did not have to report. Fuck the equity bull market, there's a bull market in black markets.
Yep. History tells us that as one economy fails, people create a new one out of necessity. What's surprising to me [blame my naitivity] is how blatantly and proudly people are gaming the system while complaining about others who are doing exactly the same thing. Sometimes it feels like most of the country is made up of the Obamaphone smurf.
I hear you Sloane. I can't begin to count how many people I know who are on the dole in one way or another ,but then they bitch about everybody else. In the mean time I'm doing what I can to hold things together myself...I don't know...maybe I'm the stupid one.
No, you're not the stupid one. The stupid ones are the people who allow themselves to become increasingly dependent on a government that is sagging under the weight of its own promises and lies. The growing black market or shadow economy tells us that the current economy is ineffective in terms of providing a market that fosters the true value of labor to exchange for goods and services. In a way, this supports most of the ZH contention that the current economy is failing.
The gov't insistence on making subsidies so readily available is a desperate effort on their part to have some control over the failing economy. If you have over half of the population dependent on gov't largesse it makes them much more maleable in terms of achieving gov't goals.
If anything, you're one of the smart ones.
Uh....let's see....because they do not like to think??????
Polling 995 dummies plus 5 that have a handleon what is going on....gives the dummies the nod.
These polls are more a reflection of the success of brain washing than reality...proof positive that the dummying down of America is at a new 'personnel best'.
"Maam how is your confidence today?"
"OBAMA PHONE KEEP OBAMA IN PRESIDENT!"
"I will put you down for confident"
@fonzannoon
My favorite part: "Romney? Romney Sucks!"
If they put a webcam in her living room I would check it probably twice a day to see what she is up to.
I don't know...I might be a little scared of what I might see. There is potential to have your retinas burned out.
I pass. I'd be deaf after only a half hour of listening.
So in the face of rising prices, they are expecting increased wages? Revolving credit offers? Easy refis?
Wow. IF these are real respondents, they are real clueless.
The 55" rectangular tube - with the help of the illuminati controlled mass media - offers a HEAVY dose of conditioning...
control...
and brainwashing to the massess.
...
The general population is clued right the fuck out. That is the power of the tools 'they' use against us commoners. The general '2 minute news report' - satisfies the large majority of people.
Be thankful most of you fellow ZedHeds are capable of independent thinking...as most are not.
-Godspeed.
I find very few people who are confident about the future. Most everybody I talk to keeps going on about how bad things are and getting worse...realtors can't move houses...budgets are getting cut ....the only banks lending are the community banks, and that is you have an existing relationship with them. Everybody is talking about the debt and the fact prices keep climbing. Either it's more propoganda or they people they survey are walking around with their head up their ass. My guess is that it's the former.
I talk to business owners every day. To a person nearly every business owner will say they want to wait until the election is over. That is the level of confidence they have in the economy. They are somewhat optimistic if Romney gets in and less to frightened if Obama stays in office.
Either way I don't get the optimism in my conversations.
Street only cares if consumer confidence is positive and is ALWAYS dismissed when negative. I assume all these consumers are driving around in a new Chevy Volt and talking on easily scratched iPhone 5.
Well, I don't know from nothin', but if this "news" stops my employer from shedding my job this month, I'll be happy about it. But confident? Er, no.
One other thing: This sort of blatant data manipulation might serve to drop gold back down for a little while. Long enough for me to make my monthly purchase at a slighlty reduced rate of FRNs.
No incumbent party has ever won the election when this last reading before it comes in below 100.
No incumbent party....
Well now, it we had known that, it would have been taken care of.
We're at the edge of the fiscall cliff where average household taxes will go up $3500
Heating oil could hit $5 a gallon in hte northeast.
I just paid $4.13 a gallon of gas upstate NY.
We've had 0% interest rates since December of 2008 and will be for 6 years by mid 2015 making saving money a complete joke.
Food prices are ripping higher.
i'm about as downbeat about the future as ever ..
I'm confident the BLS put this together too.
The past two weeks must have seen the greatest economic growth in generations. Everything must have been fixed and I didn't notice.
You have to love the giant frown on the first chart.
Tyler, how would CONsumer CONfidence look like in light of the continuous equity outflow chart? Any connection? Moar CONfidence after pulling out from the rigged game that is the equity market? LOL
Boy oh Boy the marxist have been active these past 2 weeks.
Crackheads !
Bullish until January when people return their Christmas gift to pay their heating bills.
No heating bill for me. I took the upstairs apartment. The people downstairs will supply my heat. In return, I will provide them with cool air in the summer. Molecular bitchezz
While the economy is certainly not growing extremely fast, no one can doubt that compared to a couple of years ago things are better. Housing is moving up, in fact the problem with housing is that there are shortages of homes for sale in many markets (SF etc..), while the jobs data isn't great, it is better than a couple of years ago... etc...back then there were hundreds of thousands of jobs fired per month, now there are hirings occuring, yes less than ideal but still positive
While some people might throw out the idea of 'conspiracy', the truth that no one can deny that in every metric the economy is in better shape - once this election and fiscal cliff are resolved, the economy is certainly primed to exceed expectations next year.
"brainwashing to the massess" this is funny, how can you brainwash better economic data? If you look outside and it's rainy, yet are we to believe that we've been brainwashed to see the rain?
One has to put aside all biases and look at realty. Forget the nonesense and look at the trend. The chart posted here clearly shows higher highs and higher lows, that's not an opinion that's the facts.
Hey Jo, that old fightin' Irish is comin out in ya, isn tit now?
Are you blind? Ben printed 1.3 T to get 0.5 T GDP increase in 2011. Prices for food and energy are doing fabulous, no doubt about it. How do you think the fiscal cliff will be resolved? I do not see a resolution that will lead to an economic boom.
Your numbers are really the only ones that mean anything. When you double a nation's debt in 4 years sure there's going to be some money sloshing around. Especially if you're in the right income bracket.
The jobs number reduction is diminishing returns and you are full of shit
I have a bridge i would be willing to sell you if you are interested
All they've done is blow a little bit of air back into the same old bubble and that's making the proles giddy after being in a depression for 4 years... America is still in decline longterm as the charts of real wealth show. One has to put aside all biases and look at realty. Forget the nonsense and look at the real longterm trend.
If You Follow TF Metals Report You Need To Wake Up
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/if-you-follow-t...
Yeah right, good thing you bring up gold manipulation during another manipulation/article.
The penicillin in containing the syphilis. Looking good Billy Ray.. Feeling good Lewis
So when all is said and done, unemployment down, new claims down, consumer confidence up, Bernanke prematurely ejactulated on the whole QE3 apparently.
Meanwhile across the (Nobel Farce Medal) pond the 10year bund closes down 3.62%.
this news makes me want to run the mall and max out my credit card. i can't control myself.
Swing low, sweet chariot !
Figures to be revised....Nov 7th...
This is a fuckin joke!
How do the American people feel about having economic numbers doctored by this courrpt administation because I say, enough, this imposter needs to go.
Let's go buy some fuckin' iSHIT. Liquor store and gamestop here I come cuz I gots to spend my gubmint check,YO!
I don't believe that data for one minute.
I stopped by the grocery store last night to get a half gallon of milk and orange juice, only to find a half gallon of orange juice is now 1.8 quarts.
Smaller package sizes, part time jobs, artifical stock market rally all mask the reality. Why wouldn't people feel happy?
Every little thing is gonna be all right.
"all knowledge, meaning and value exists only in the collective mind of the Party; reality is what the Party says"
If you disagree then a trip to the Ministry of Love will be arranged for you.
What does it mean when a HFT induced spike is faded almost as quickly as it happened?
Make sense to ANY here?.With $3.50-$4.00 per gal+????
Not me.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/us-poised-for-boom-in-crude-oil-exports/article4605560/?cmpid=rss1
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/shell-usexports-crude-idUSL1E8LBGQT20121011?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/USenergyNews+(News+/+US+/+Energy)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/11/us-usa-crude-exports-idUSBRE89A1N220121011?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
This will go over HUGE w/ US Drivers.......................
It puts the lotion on its statistics.
No one ever asked me if I was confident. Hmmm.
The lies get more blatant each day and that tells me to have hope since the reset button is near
Time for a gold and silver breakout big time to the upside even before the general public decides to jump in
CNBC said a couple months ago that the average automoblie age on the streets is 10 yrs. I would have liked to have seen this data and I would also like to know how many drivers have been going without insurance.
People can't be unhappy all the time. The numbers, manipulated or not, are more or less meaningless right now. If someone is happier in a more impoverished state, it clearly does not mean they have more money to spend or that the economy is strong or improving. The economy has been in a nosedive for the last five months, and we will hit crisis by xmas time.
double post
Overextended equity/commodity/gold/silver daily charts still indicate impending correction.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
http://trader618.com
Clarification: of the remaining populace that can afford to be consumers, they're feeling pretty good. Data was unavailable from "the dissatisfied "....
fedex didnt get those#, thier planning for something else, my guess is ups is too
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