Consumer Confidence Soars To Highest Since September 2007, Biggest Beat Since 2005

Tyler Durden's picture

In continuing the pre-election twilight zone data series, respondents to the UMichigan consumer confidence poll apparently have not a care in the world about the upcoming fiscal cliff, or record high gas prices in California for that matter, and are more confident than they have ever been in the past 5 years. With the final number printing at 83.1, well above the highest Wall Street forecast of 81.0 from DB's Joe LaVorgna of course, and 5 std deviations above the consensus forecast (a 7 year beat of expectations) of a decline to 78.0 from last month's 78.3, all one can do at this point is pull a Biden and just keep on laughing. The internal, while completely irrelevant as we have uncovered merely the latest doctored economic data set, joining the unemployment rate and the initial claims number, current conditions rose to 88.6 from 85.7, while it was expectations that set the mood, rising to the highest since July 2007 or 79.5, up from 73.5. And while last month it was the inflation expectations, both 1 and 5 year, that soared because apparently UMich was unaware these have to decline for "inflation expectations to be anchored" this time around respondents saw 5 year inflation decline from 2.8% to 2.6%, apparently confused that the only reason why expectations are soaring is because the Chairman promised to send future inflation soaring. But who cares about logic when massaging data.

Highest since Sept 2007, Biggest beat since Dec 2005


A 5-Sigma beat of economist expectations...


Charts: Bloomberg

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nobusiness's picture

California excluded?

GetZeeGold's picture



2005 in Cally was freakin ausome......not so much these daze.

Levadiakos's picture

You didn't! Don't tell me you took the brown acid!

greyghost's picture

I demand that issa get off his lazy ass and start a congressional investigation now! how dare they inflate the fact that people are happy with everything...the nerve of these people! don't happy

Stackers's picture

2,000 UMichigan college students are very confident in the purchasing power of their student loan to buy the iphone6 next year.

john39's picture

2000 idiots couldn't possibly be wrong.

economics9698's picture

Just another excuse for the Yids to spend the excess reserves before the peasants figure out their money is worthless.

Kill the central bankers all over the world.

MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

The Christmas shopping frenzy is nearly here...

Why wouldn't consumers be ecstatic...???

DeadFred's picture

If only I can find my flashlight I might be able to find my way back to the portal out of Bizarro World...

MFLTucson's picture

What people do you know that are happy with the way this economy is going?  If the country as a whole shows that 75% of the people are dissatisfied, how can such a report be true?  You’re either a liberal or an idiot in which case they are usually one in the same.

SeverinSlade's picture

We are heading toward a cliff people.  With all of the blatant manipulation of almost every economic statistic that flashes red at the top of Bloomberg, CNBC, etc. despite record high gas prices, Europe still not being fixed, the US nearing its debt ceiling limit, etc. I feel it's pretty clear that we are nearing a major event.  Shortly after November 6th, expect reality to return with a revengence.

fonzannoon's picture

Hate to say it but I think you are being optomistic that we are near a major event so we can just start over. The possibility that this is like getting attacked by the blob seems more likely. This could drag on for a long time.

Ruffcut's picture

The decline is "steady as she goes".

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot's picture

This could drag on for a long time.

Until it doesn't. Was discussing this with friends last night. It could go either way, but I think at some point there will be a catalyzing even that speeds things up. Not sure what, though.

BeetleBailey's picture


FUCKING ALL OUT WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST WITH IRAQ/IRAN...EUPHRASIA (nod to Stevie Wonder), Azerbaijanis, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Israel, Jordan (Michael too), Yemen, the Saudis, the Turks, and a whole LOT of US bullying; shooting, shitting and fartin in every direction - add in Russia, the Pakis, the Indians, the Talbani douches, the George Bush, Al Qaeda, Willie Wonka, and sprinkle with a big FAT dose of Chinese weaponry....


Vince Clortho's picture

We have been through numerous catalyzing events in the last few years that the Central Planners were able to weather.

But I tend to agree that it is going to be a steady-managed slide down until the general misery index gets to the point where people become unmanageable and respond to an event.  At that point, it should get pretty hairy.

MassDecep's picture

We are like the preverbal frog in the slow heated pot. Food and fuel prices are through the roof, and going to get much higher. Living the life of luxury will soon change to living to survive. Buy PM's if you can afford. Food for sure, and G&A a must.

SeverinSlade's picture

I don't know about that.  Get a feeling that is eerily similar to that of late 2007.  The writing was on the wall then and no one seemed to care.  Once again the writing is on the wall (referencing the non-manipulated economic indicators such as global PMI, corporate earnings, food and gas inflation, etc) and no one seems to give a shit.  Plus throw in what appears to be a pending war with Syria and Iran (the FSA seems to be intentionally doing whatever it can to spark a war between Syria and NATO member Turkey - including continually fighting near the Turkish/Syrian border) and we have a lot of shit that can happen.

AlphaHunter001's picture


If the data is manipulated, as  you say, as long as they're consistantly doing it then what does it matter since the trend is still positive? Meaning, you think they're adding 5 points to the data, fine and take away 5 points across the board, it doesn't change the fact that recent data is positive.


The time to buy is when people are scared, the time to sell is when people are 'sure' about something - in 2006 everyone was 'sure' about real estate, today everyone is 'sure' about gold which means we're certainly close to a top in commodities like gold and a bottom in real estate, maybe another 12-14 months etc... learn to trade, buy and hold is dead



LawsofPhysics's picture

Maybe.  An increase in the war element would complete destroy your analysis however.  Moreover, you are still talking about trading paper promises and when fraud is the status quo, possession becomes the law.  So be nimble and never to far from cash or physical. didn't junk you BTW.

CvlDobd's picture

I'll proudly take credit for his red arrow.

CvlDobd's picture

I saw a commercial once that said trading was so simple a cave baby could do it.

Gold Top, noted. Glad the print fest is almost over.

pupton's picture

Maybe you should leave the satire to MillionDollarBonus.  If you are serious...please don't vote or reproduce.

SeverinSlade's picture

Everyone is "sure" about gold?  Makes sense, considering the vast majority of investment firms aren't heavily invested in gold.  The only people that are "sure" about gold are members of the fringe blogosphere and "tin foil hat conspiracy theorirsts."

dolph9's picture

Either you are a troll, or you are a fucking idiot.

Gold is not a commodity, gold is money.  That is why central banks hoard it.  And based on the conservations I have, hardly anybody else is buying gold yet.  It remains the refuge of a small but dedicated community.

Real estate isn't anywhere close to a bottom.  If it was, and if the market was healthy, why would the Fed need to commit to mortgage securities purchases to infinity.

Bastiat's picture

Maybe they just polled San Francisco and the Peninsula, then extrapolated.

rosiescenario's picture

.....maybe just Palo Alto, about the only spot I know of where real estate prices are headed up....thanks to some of the frothy IPO's...and Apple stock these will now be the new norm????

pupton's picture

"These are not the stats you're looking for."

"These are not the stats we're looking for.  Move along."


CrimsonAvenger's picture

So, with all this great news, the Fed will be able to stop QEing?

Muppet Pimp's picture

Exactly. How did the fed get it so wrong, again? Everything is coming up roses!

poor fella's picture

Just coincidence on Bernanke's statement about continuing QE past the point where things are finally turning around? How convenient, but he wants to be sure it's for-reals real

WatchingIgnorance's picture

They just polled federal workers in D.C. making a minimum of $80,000/yr.

SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

this is almost as ridiculous as the EU awarded the nobel prize

Unprepared's picture

True. I'm very confident... we are fucked.


*double bonus green arrows: FYB and Bitchez

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

The *Wizzard* is becoming more and more brazen with his manipulation.  Is he about to step out from behind the green curtain and reveal himself?

SeverinSlade's picture

Easy explanation for the beat.

Californians are highly confident that they will have zero money to spend after filling up at the gas pump.

Agent P's picture

In fairness to the survey takers...there are a lot of idiots out there.

GolfHatesMe's picture

We are only polling those who do not eat nor drive

rosiescenario's picture

.......the price of 50 / 50 Night Train is still the same....

stinkhammer's picture

You're Not Your Fucking Khakis

Gimp's picture

I believe everything.......they would not tell a lie, would they? TGIF

irie1029's picture

Though I hate Rommney I think this is due to his debate performance and seeing the end of Obama.  

nobusiness's picture

Hate is a strong work? 

You might not like his politics, but based on his personal life you have to admit he is one of the nicest guy's

irie1029's picture

LOL But he tied a dog to his frigging roof!! He will be sellout just like O and he is a warmonger.  I agree.. Hate is the wrong term.

bornlastnight's picture

Mutts for Mitt all agree …
Better in the crate than on the plate.