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Forget 666; 808 Is The Number Of This Market's Beast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment, except to say - it seems, as Boaz at EminiAddict points out, that the S&P 500 likes to travel around 808 points from swing low to swing high. Extending the analog suggests a drop to 565 on the S&P 500 by mid-2014.

 

 

and using EminiAddict's channel projection... suggests a 565 swing low to come...

 

(h/t @eminiaddict)

 

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Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:30 | 2885217 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

666 should be tested

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:33 | 2885319 alstry
alstry's picture

666 or 6666...OR .000000666

WE HAVE SIMPLY MORPHED INTO A GENERATION OF FINANCIAL PEDOPHILES AND THERE IS ZERO HEDGE FOR PEDOPHILIA

In one generation we put 16X more debt upon our children than all previous generations combined. We refused to do this in the Great Depression and why we had food lines back then but 50 million people on food stamps today. We are collectively milking off our kids to maintain the current failed industrial model that was once based on capital and production...but now merely debt.
 
Our debt based system is bankrupt but we deem it too big to fail....so we collectively screw our kids and the next generation so we adults can maintain our perception of wealth/control. Yes the 1% benefit disproportionately from this immoral fraud...but we all do to one degree or another as it has become our system....a system I call Financial Pedophilia as 50% of the kids in America and Europe can't find jobs and most adults don't give a damn.....even though it is their money we are borrowing and the money they are going to have to pay back...since we don't have the means anymore.
 
$16 trillion we borrowed is WE THE PEOPLE's money....and the $16 Trillion is WE THE PEOPLE's debt.....it is the money in our savings accounts, it is the money in our retirement accounts.....our money market funds......the cash in our corporations......yet few of us want to take responsibility for the debt that we all benefit from...
 
And now the over $1 trillion we are borrowing year after year is the cash flow to our nation.....the cash flow to our stocks.....the cash flow to our bonds......multiplying from the welfare recipient......to the doctor.....to the nurse......to the retailer..........back to the government......it is what drives tax receipts....and payments to the elderly.....and payments to our health care system.....and our increasingly large military......
 
We have become addicted to debt and we are now milking our kids to remain in an Udder World....a world where we milk each other since few of us produce what we consume anymore......but few really care or understand since this is a systemic issue in a world of individual thinkers. All we care about is ourselves even though our system has failed. Shame on us....ALL OF US!!!

We can change the Udder World and advance from needing to milk off each other for production to increasingly milk off technology...otherwise, we should be preparing to fight each other for control in the world we bankrupted.

Right now, IBM Watson and HFT algos can out trade, out think, and out analyze every financial professional on earth.....eMail has already made the post office unsustainable and obsolete as we head into the http://www.udderworld.com

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:34 | 2885336 B-rock
B-rock's picture

...So, what's your point?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2885349 alstry
alstry's picture

The Golden Rule....

We now owe all of our wealth to the system that bailed us out with the next generation's money.  A system that we depend on for our survival....and without it we would all be broke.

The system is now broke.....and our wealth is SYSTEMIC debt, and derivatives of debt, that is now bankrupt and can't be repaid without fraudulently borrowing against the next generation or manipulating other fraud.

It's time to forgive all debt and start over since debt....and the proceeds that spawn from it is fraudulently based and thus illusory in nature....

only then can we avoid the inevitable fight of all of us trying to control each other in a bankrupt world.

And factoring a population of 7 billion...I am unaware of any gun or magazine large enough that is capable of effectively dealing with this situation.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:31 | 2885437 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

There is functionally no more retail in the market to flush out as in prior patterns so the idea is that a collapse is going to be egineered to pass the dough from the prefessional investors including hedge funds to the banks.  I would be surprised if the powers that be are so out of it that they bielieve they can pull that off without serious social reprecutions.  I am sure the Fed is well aware fo the danger and my guess would be trying to prevent or mitigate the impending pattern.       

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:07 | 2885484 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Fiscal cliff. Weak earnings season...QE3 hangover. Give me a good reason not to expect 666?

Marc Faber says the market is setting up for a serious setback...

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/10/10/marc-faber-market-setting-up-fo...

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:44 | 2885643 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

So I guess this now means that that little 'ChannelingStocks.com' dweeb is really gonna rake in the semolians... 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:25 | 2885867 cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

Naw, he had to "come out of retirement" years ago.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:48 | 2885457 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"It's time to forgive all debt and start over since debt...."

And this will be done, how?  And without violence?  The 'reset', whatever form it takes, needs to end with a system of non-debt based money - or we'll end up in the same hole with the same 'powers that be' plaguing all of the rest of us.

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/12/freedoms-vision-introduction.html (or something like this.)

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:09 | 2885475 alstry
alstry's picture

The solution is to advance the system to SUSTAINABLE technological production. 

We need money to control people and people's production.  It's not money we want, but the production it controls.  Technology doesn't require payment to produce...neither do our pets.... simply a little food or electricty.

Khanacademy.org doesn't give a damn if ten people learn or ten million benefit....it's free for all.  Same with eMail......  Further, as we move the game of life from a board game to a video game....we can consume essentially unlimited amounts of goods and services without consuming resources or creating waste.  Digital goods and services take on the economic qualities of air....with unlimited supply and essentially no, or very limited human input, AND it can be free for all.

Of course, somethings can't be digitized...but can be produced technologically such as food, clothing, and shelther.  I have identified some of the early technology on http://www.udderworld.com

And being one of the most competitive persons I know....we humans must compete, we like to compete.....and we will still compete.  But we can and will do it in a new pyramid where we can move more up the ladder and do it in a way that doesn't require screwing others.

The evolution of man has simply been advancing from one pyramid scheme to another.....advancing from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age will simply be our biggest advancement yet.   But like all changes in history, whether monarchy to democracy, agriculture to industrial,  or slavery to freedom.....the change is met with resistance by those that didn't want to relinquish control in a failed/obsolete system.

This one is no different as evidenced by all the fraud around us....

The first step to avoiding violence is understanding and acceptance.....and until we accept we are ALL participants in this pedophile SYSTEM, then you are right, violence is the likely outcome.  But if we do understand and accept, it is amazing what people will do when given hope and opportunity for a better system.  Heck, some will drink poison if they think it will cure cancer....we call it chemotherapy.  Is it really any different than calling counterfeiting Quantatative Easing? 

We are strange animals indeed when you give us hope.....and sometimes, that hope actually comes true.  We all milk off this system...we better start caring soon or there may be no system to milk off.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:51 | 2885654 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

To bad it will not happen in our lifetimes. The few that played the game and made sure they won by collecting the most seashells (dollars) will not accept a rest because that means they will become equalto us and that is not acceptable to them.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:52 | 2885657 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

...will not accept a reset because...

fixed typo

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 22:19 | 2886009 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Perhaps.   And then Malala Yousufzai brings us all back down to earth.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:12 | 2885489 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

Simple just reset the debt to what ist worth....  ZERO all of it.  Then lets restart.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:40 | 2885539 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I guess that was the whole premise of fight club right? There was a line in there from Brad Pitt but I forget what he said.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:00 | 2885569 spinone
spinone's picture

Don't worry so much.  Money and debt are really just social conventions, not immutable laws of the universe.  As society and teh world changes, so will debt and money.

 

Get off the computer and take a walk.  Drink a beer with a buddy and talk about something besides the economy.  It will all work out whether you worry about it or not.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:08 | 2885585 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you spinone. It's good advice and I try to remember the 2nd part of what you said. As for the first part, sorry man, I am a worrier. Especially on that topic. For me there is a lot more to it than just general interest.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:35 | 2885722 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Here's my point....Until Benny and the Feds (and all the other printers in the world) stop printing, It's all Bullshit!!!!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 22:04 | 2885993 zerozam
zerozam's picture

HFT algos cannot out trade my gold tungsten bars...

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:02 | 2885379 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

This photo is worth the click alone.

PHOTO - Debt Party USA - $17 Trillion Now In Sight

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2885388 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

SP will fall below 800 well before 2014.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:39 | 2885731 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

ZH just let the cat out of the bag.  The Algos will now be re programed to not let this happen.  All hail Ben Shalom

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:32 | 2885223 topspinslicer
topspinslicer's picture

Less scary than 666

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:32 | 2885224 PUD
PUD's picture

History may rhyme but pattern seeking mammals always seem to find a way to make it repeat... on paper.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:33 | 2885226 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

808? Must be some kind of Hawaiian revenge plot. Hit 'em where it hurts braddah.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:57 | 2885282 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Aloha...bitchez!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:19 | 2885420 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

Hang loose ZH'ers.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 02:20 | 2886240 hero HNL
hero HNL's picture

I was thinking the same.....perhaps they want independence & return to a sovereign country like before annexation by the US gubmin.

 

Aloha & Mahalo!

hero

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2885252 resurger
resurger's picture

OBS

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:45 | 2885256 valkir
valkir's picture

Darn,i was hoping for another number today,something close to 69?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:58 | 2885284 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

And you're looking here?!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:45 | 2885257 max2205
max2205's picture

Ben pump not over till 2015.....

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:53 | 2885274 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

Good point. The Dow looks like it's being propper up, but momentum has run dry it seems, so we may (should) see a sell-off after elections. I don't see the DOW going higher than 14000, though. 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:48 | 2885265 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

TSX has a similar pattern, too. It might have a minor run in the next three weeks, but once it breaks below 12,000, make sure your money is out of the market. Gold and silver look like they're going to take a hit, too, which will serve as a great buying opportunity. The next twelve months will not be fun for most. 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:01 | 2885291 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I wouldn't bet on it, gold should go up in the next months, inflation should benefit the TSX.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:10 | 2885402 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

I agree from a fundamental perspective but from a technical perspective I do see a short term dip in gold (but within the current trading band). My intermediate and long term indicators show a bottom in momentum, which supports your assertion. 

 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 15:46 | 2913711 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

Gold is now down to 1700 support and the TSX got slammed as expected. 

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 15:47 | 2913718 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

And thankfully I did bet on it. I trust my ability to read a market. 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 13:57 | 2885281 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

I think everything is going to be more extreme this time. A higher high and a lower low (ie epic crash). History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme..

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:05 | 2885298 10044
10044's picture

the guy comes on tv and says he's going to pump in $80b a month in the market....565 swing low...really???!! and WHY???!!!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:08 | 2885301 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i agree with you, 80 bil a month should push it higher. japan says differently though.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:28 | 2885330 razorthin
razorthin's picture

So you think you know how Ben and his boys are betting personally? ;)

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:42 | 2885341 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Fonz you know my thoughts. There is no way 85 billion a month takes the market higher. At best it maintains this level for a while but it will head lower. And you're right Japan is our model. My target for the collapse has always been S&P 400, because that's where we were when the great leveraging up began. But at the very least 666 needs to be tested , it was set at the low but never retested.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:41 | 2885531 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

two things doc. first, in principle i agre with u. 85 bil does not take it higher. i think we may be done. in theory i say it should, just because...85 Billion...holy crap that is a staggering number. The thing about S&P 600 or 400...if we get there it's not like the debt is gone right? we still have the debt and are piss broke to boot. Until you clear the debt and entitlements and send a lot of people to jail we are stuck imo.. 

Doc if it is Japan for us then the bond market stays in tact and the currency stays strong though right? Or do we get the Japanese Stock market with a side of greece bond market?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:33 | 2885626 css1971
css1971's picture

Difference between the yen and dollar is people buy the stuff they really need in dollars, so dollar printing turns into commodity inflation world wide, the US exports it's inflation. Yen printing doesn't.

Japan gets deflation, the US gets stagflation.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:37 | 2885629 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Good point about the dollar, but that will be changing over time, no? Especially when we punt everything in a few months.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:41 | 2885737 css1971
css1971's picture

It always takes longer than you think.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 19:34 | 2885792 ekm
ekm's picture

Japan is a misleading example. Japan had the luck to be the first one in crisis when the rest of the world was booming.

 

Now, nobody is booming. Everybody is shitting.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:58 | 2885473 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The robots have to take profits from pension funds and day traders at some point.

Sometimes it's a day or two correction, other times it's a months long downdraft as they sell into weakness and those muppets who see the dip as "a buy" take the losing position.

The robots are always in front, just remember that.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:44 | 2885545 rocker
rocker's picture

And who owns the Robots. Remember this when one of Goldman's traders stole their software program.

It was Goldman Sachs who said their computer trading software in the wrong hands could manipulate markets.

Are we to believe that in Goldman's hands it is in right hands. They would never manipulate markets for profits, right !!!   LOL

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:02 | 2885573 spinone
spinone's picture

Anyone who thinks the markets weren't manipulated until computers were invented is a fool.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 01:39 | 2886221 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Agreed.  The HFT robots are kind of like the advent of machine guns in WWI; more efficient way of killing.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:13 | 2885303 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

ok   so we re doomed

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:18 | 2885306 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You have a QE humpty hump pattern on the last one that doesn't exist on the others so the downside might retrace differently as well. Like straight HTF flash crash without a bounce to 700. Hard to say what the machines will agree a fair price should be. Maybe it will happen at the close of the day with a great big Fuck you Bernake Friday farewell to the markets.

None of the old human forms of exchange such as stock markets and monetary systems will function without them being open source. Here's why: technology demands it. Or, said another way, technology is a great democratizing machine that has not only the power to destroy all humankind if not founded in open source but as a subset of its unfolding prevents itself from transcending the developer if treated in any other way. And, that is one great big Fuck You Bernanke from the source.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:25 | 2885321 knukles
knukles's picture

I'm coming to wonder why anybody'd want to be president for the next 4 years....

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:25 | 2885323 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Awesome.  I'll make some popcorn.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:30 | 2885331 morethan1
morethan1's picture

I am the world's worst investor, the minute I detect a pattern, it breaks down....I detect a pattern.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:26 | 2885709 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

1all you want is consistency. A tip: once you spot the patern, do the opposite of your natural inclination. Free tip bus load.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:43 | 2885344 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Its the debt stupid!

How much is too much?

Are we there yet? How much further to go? 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:23 | 2885704 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

It is the interest payment that breaks the camel's back. The Fed's policy to keep interest rates low is just another rolling the snowball uphill exercise. At some point, the kinetic energy will be released.

People will blame austerity. When politicians start talking about austerity, everyone knows the snowball is too heavy to stop from rolling downhill, but the fall must be stopped as long as possible for the smart money people to position themselves to take advantage of the snowball crashing mess.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2885345 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I haven't seen a correct bearish market call here ever. 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:13 | 2885407 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ThisIsBob

So you missed the flash crash of May 6, 2010 and the pre-QE2 swoon of 2011?  ZH isn't a trading site, so YMMV.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:00 | 2885476 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

ZH tends to be bearish on the long term prospects of the debt ponzi, not muppet day trading.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:33 | 2885524 Conman
Conman's picture

Actually all the bearish calls are correct except Fed keeps saving it. If it were to unfold without intervention i'd say 100% of the calls on here are right. And this site has had numerous articles predicting QE2-3 twist etc was going to come, would you call that bearish or bullish. Since trading on that data you would be a bull right- frontrunning the fed?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:32 | 2885719 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

What's the point of predicting the way the market would be if the Fed wasn't there? They're there. They keep saving it. Until they don't. I agree with what someone said about about 2015.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:44 | 2885347 tawse57
tawse57's picture

2014!!? Can't we have it this month? Next month at latest?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2885354 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

What goes up, must come down. Keep stacking.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 14:57 | 2885373 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

BTFD?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:37 | 2885444 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Yes, if youre referring to gold & silver!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:29 | 2885378 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I think the tune of the greatest multiple is trying to take us to go back to economics 101.  But can our ears hear this octave?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2885390 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm totally down with this.  The (truncated) 666 print was not the bottom.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:07 | 2885396 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nope S&P 400 is more like it. We have a nice triple top.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:07 | 2885487 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Tops have a habit of breaking on the 3rd try Englai. I hope you are correct. If the top does break I think it will be brief and shallow,(false break).

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 15:08 | 2885397 not fat not stupid
not fat not stupid's picture

I'm waiting for Tyler to throw in the towel and turn bullish. Then I'll know its time to sell.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:29 | 2885515 Conman
Conman's picture

Correct - except replace tyler with muppets . Time to sell was when muppets startung buying,  Which was 2 weeks ago confirmed by people in the barbershop talking about buying AAPL. Followed by people in a car forum I visit talking about buying AAPL. Followed by my idiot boss that i wouldnt take advise from about anything ever. Top was most definately confirmed - i dont get my shoe shined but i'd assume shoe shine boys were also talking about buying aapl 2 weeks ago.

 

Repalce appl with any symbol and we have confirmation that muppets are ripe for the slaugter.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:00 | 2885477 hustler etiquette
hustler etiquette's picture

Kanye West knew this.... 808 and Heartbreak

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:02 | 2885480 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 God I hope it doesn't take that long!

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 16:31 | 2885517 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Looks like a freakin sine wave, anybody taking bets which way it's headed from here?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:02 | 2885574 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

aahhh it's 808 

is that a Fibonachi number?

the Idiotiians, sorry ellioticians, love Fibonachi numbers, because Elliot waves have no timing Fibo gives them a possible place to stick their Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5's on as Elliott himself hadn't the remotest clue how to time markets (ie. Elliott was an idiot)

Only problem with Fibo numbers is there's so many between 0 an 100% it creates as much of a spin of the wheel as those dumb-arses get when guessing wether its 1 of 13 Elliot waves coming up

so you get Idioticians saying it's a possible 5 ending wave at 32% retrace.. when that doesn't happen they plug for a 61% retrace ...when that doesn't happen they plump for a 72% or 78% Fibo retrace 

these village idiots can see Fibo numbers in every bloody thing ...I can see H2O water in everything, but that doesn't make it predictable!

Elliott Waves : a label for attaching to village idiot-icians

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:10 | 2885584 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm  a Fibi & MAs, guy myself. I would trade Ichimoku, before Elliot waves. +1

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:51 | 2885653 LithiumWarsWAKEUP
LithiumWarsWAKEUP's picture

Oh, I see your problem, ZeroG...  You say "between 0 and 100%". Shall I suggest to you to go to the website that posted this chart (duhh,,eminiaddict) , and actually LEARN 'how to use fibs'??  Nahh,,,  You already 'know'. Right?  :)  DH teaches 'what is predictable'. That said,,,I must crawl back into my cave. tsk, tsk, tsk

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 19:43 | 2885797 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

I am reminded that R.N. Elliott died broke 2 years after he published  Nature's Law - The Secret of the Universe.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:14 | 2885594 Itch
Sat, 10/13/2012 - 17:46 | 2885647 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Powerful Juju.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:54 | 2885755 polo007
polo007's picture

http://brucekrasting.com/evidence-qe3-is-working-and-other-lies/

Ben Bernanke also says that the Fed will, “gradually sell securities or let them mature”. Think of what this statement means.
 
The Fed has Twisted away most of its holdings of sub 5 year paper, so the issue of normalizing the Fed’s balance sheet by allowing securities to mature would be pushed off for 7-10 years. That’s not monetary policy. That’s a biblical kicking of the can past the horizon.
 
So Bernanke is telling us the Fed can/will normalize its balance sheet by selling some bonds. This is a joke.
 
Take Ben on his word; at some point the Fed will normalize its balance sheet, it will do it by selling bonds to the market on a gradual basis. What does that mean? It means that Bernanke would have to sell $60Bn of bonds every month for three years! What would that do for the capital markets? What will the market reaction be to this headline when we get it?

Ben is lying to us when he says that QE can be reversed without tremendous pain. Bernanke will be long gone as head of the Fed when the bill for QE is finally presented. Ben’s successor will be mired in the mess than he created.
 
The reality is that there is no viable exit strategy from QE. Ben knows this. So do all the other Doves. Shame on them.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 18:59 | 2885761 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

There are more Derivatives in the World that are betting on a World failure than there are Dollars or Currencies in existence.

If People through the World refuse to go along with their labors being taken without sufficient compensation then the World will seize to be as it is today.  Even those with Money will be unable to survive. 

No labor to deliver food, mail.  No labor to build cars. No labor to mow their lawns or repair their Homes.  No labor to make their clothes.  No labor to pay their Taxes into the Inflated Government.

The World will change but the little folk will survive, but will the Big Boys?

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 12:56 | 2887691 sink critically
sink critically's picture

When the going gets tough, the tough pay in real money or goods for the services they deem worth it. Then if they're important enough (and have made a few enemies) the tax man swoops in and ruins them.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 19:21 | 2885778 ekm
ekm's picture

 

If people KEPT IN MIND the factors below, it'd be quite easy to understand:

- Number of stocks - FINITE

- Money that can be printed - INFINITE

 

Money is printed by buying something -DO NOT FORGET THIS.

Hence by buying stocks, money is printed into existence. But that leads to REMOVAL of stocks from trading.

 

Conclusion: An INFINITE factor can devour A FINITE factor. The game can go on until most of stocks are purchaseD and nobody to sell to. This is quite similar to a card game. The game goes on untill all cards are used. Then, everything folds and a new game starts.

 

We are at the point that the INFINITE money has almost DEVOURED all tradeable FINITE stocks, with nobody to sell it to. Same as in a game of cards, the game has to fold in order to start anew.

Time has come to fold the game, to start new at S&P at 400. It's that simple. It's arithmetics, FINITE VS INFINITE.

 

Why is this so difficult to understand? Bernie Madoff understood it very well when he surrendered. He simply folded the cards.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 07:36 | 2886659 Racer
Racer's picture

The stock is also 'printed'.... the companies just issue more shares when they feel like it

then buy them back again to pretend there is demand

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 14:29 | 2887943 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct, but again, a buyers are needed. No buyers right now.

It's the end of the game, same as in 1987.

Tue, 10/23/2012 - 15:50 | 2913732 Hanuman Capital
Hanuman Capital's picture

+1

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 19:32 | 2885789 ekm
ekm's picture

There is one way to track this game in real time, but it requires knowledge of balance sheets.

 

If somebody can know the following:

- How many stocks are left OUT OF PRIMARY DEALERS' HANDS?

- How many stocks do Primary Dealers own?

- How much money do pension funds and retail investors have CURRENTLY still in stocks?

 

...then it'd be easy to see how many cards are left on the table to play with, meaning it'd be easy to see how many stocks are left on the table to sell to suckers as well as how much money have the suckers left to play with.

I think the we are about to fold and start a new game. Not many cards left to play.

 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:00 | 2885813 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey EKM, haven't heard from ya for a while? I always enjoy your analytics. Don't take this link in the wrong way.

 I just think you are over thinking the "theory" a little bit. I could be 100% wrong, but at least I think that I understand your idea.

 http://www.homepokergames.com/cardcounting.php (google it, as the link gets zapped to Z/H).  Either way, don't be a stranger;-)

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:55 | 2885911 ekm
ekm's picture

Excellent, excellent link. Thx a lot. Card counting - It is exactly like that.

 

In the market NEWCOMERS (new players) are needed until the last ones hold the crap. It's called a Pyramid Scheme.

The problem with Primary Dealers right now is that no newcomers are coming, hence they are using the cash from selling MBS to buy more stocks that the Mutual Funds have to redeem due to withdrawal requests from former suckers, otherwise their stock holding purchased at the hope of luring newcomers, would lose value.

 

The flow can continue until the stock is devoured.

It's not theory. I have personally been a willing sucker of a Pyramid Scheme in 1996-1997.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 19:43 | 2885798 Monedas
Monedas's picture

You young, tender little Turds .... I've been waitin' 41 years .... maybe that explains my PERSONALITY !

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:01 | 2885821 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Can we have your S.S. & DL. #'s to?

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 23:32 | 2886096 Monedas
Monedas's picture

38493736M473748590     There they are .... in random order !

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 03:17 | 2886261 etresoi
etresoi's picture

And I thought your place of residence explained your personality !  Please accept my condolences.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:36 | 2885880 tongue.stan
tongue.stan's picture

kinda sorta confirmed by russ2k + dow + nyse in a way, not nasdaq

what do I know, I'm just a mook

I will say that if obummer wins, look out below

fed buying mbs @80bil/mo, the fed will own everyones houses by when? a year and a half?

could someone calculate that for me? tia

 

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 20:54 | 2885914 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27296/the-myth-of-deleveraging

Importantly, the Fed's moves to collapse interest rates and monetize debt (in conjunction with mortgage assistance programs) incited a major wave of mortgage refinancing. And through the refi process, large quantities of private-label mortgages (previously included in FSCMD as ABS) were essentially transformed into sparkling new GSE-backed mortgage securities - and many then conveniently found their way onto the Federal Reserve's rapidly inflating balance sheet. This provided critical liquidity that allowed highly-leveraged Wall Street proprietary trading desks, hedge funds and banks to de-risk/de-leverage. This bailout accommodated deleveraging for the financial speculators, yet for the real economy the boom in Non-Financial debt ran unabated.

A 100% increase in Federal debt and 200% growth in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are surely not indicative of system de-leveraging. Such extraordinary Credit developments do, however, have profound effects throughout the markets and real economy. The ongoing Credit expansion has inflated incomes, spending, corporate earnings and securities prices, in the process sustaining for now the U.S. economy's Bubble structure. And I would argue strongly that the data support the thesis that our system remains dominated by Bubble Dynamics.

Also keep in mind that, in contrast to risky mortgage debt, federal debt requires little intermediation. The marketplace absolutely loves it just the way it is, conspicuous warts and all. For now, at least, it is "money" and shares money's dangerous attribute of enjoying virtually insatiable demand. The only alchemy necessary is to keep those electronic "printing presses" running 24/7. It is, after all, the massive inflation of federal debt that is inflating incomes, cash-flows and profits, equities and fixed-income securities prices, and government tax receipts and expenditures - in the process validating the "moneyness" of the ever-expanding level of system debt (Ponzi Finance).

The history of money is a sad state of affairs. Failing to learn from a litany of previous monetary fiascos, "money" is these days being abusively over-issued. And when the marketplace inevitably decides that over-issuance (in conjunction with only deeper structural maladjustment) has sufficiently impaired the "moneyness" of federal and related debt, there will be no one to step in to backstop Washington's Creditworthiness. There will be no entity left with the wherewithal for backstopping system "moneyness," as the Treasury and Federal Reserve have done for Trillions of intermediated mortgage debt since the bursting of the previous Bubble. Moreover, in the meantime, outrageous fiscal and monetary policies will continue to foment uncertainties that will impinge the type of sound investment and wealth creation necessary to get our economy on sounder footing.

Sat, 10/13/2012 - 21:41 | 2885961 polo007
polo007's picture

http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/33438/

Seeking to stimulate the economy, the United States Federal Reserve undertook another extraordinary monetary-policy measure in September (the “QE3"), embarking on a third dose of quantitative easing.

In theory, quantitative easing is a form of economic stimulus, differing from the stimulus passed in 2008 which cut taxes and raised spending by more than $800 billion. Simply put, QE3 is a dangerous monetary policy whereby the Federal Reserve purchases debt (bonds) from investors in an attempt to help them lend more money, while lowering interest rates. And with no end date being announced, it amounts toindefinite monetary meddling -- a stimulus without limit.

Studies demonstrate that quantitative easing does reduce borrowing costs but are less clear on how a reduction translates into real economic improvement. Despite a clear track record, desperate politicians allow such experimentation because bond-buying enables them to ignore looming fiscal problems by providing a dependable purchaser for the republic's ever-increasing debt.

Thus far, the central bank's policies have proven ineffective. Repeating efforts, therefore, are unlikely to create sustainable growth. The new action is little more than an admission that previous actions have not worked, demonstrating that monetary policy alone is unable to jumpstart the economy.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 00:34 | 2886163 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Just for the record, Japan has been QEing since 1990 (22 years!!!!) and the Nikkei is a fraction of what it once was.

Those who believe QEnfinity is the way to increase stock prices are sadly mistaken!!!!!

560,400,666 bring it on!!!, one of those will be right for the SPX!!!. 

 

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 01:22 | 2886206 Never_Put_Down
Never_Put_Down's picture

Everybody gettin down make no mistake
Nothing sounds better than an 8 0 8
Money Makin Money Money Makin *Manhattan *
Super Disco Disco Breakin'

Super Disco Breakin', Beastie Boys, Hello Nasty

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 01:21 | 2886207 Never_Put_Down
Never_Put_Down's picture

Everybody gettin down make no mistake
Nothing sounds better than an 8 0 8
Money Makin Money Money Makin *Manhattan *
Super Disco Disco Breakin'

Super Disco Breakin', Beastie Boys, Hello Nasty

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 04:13 | 2886285 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

its all fuzzy math

he calculates that sp500 will drop to 565...well 565 + 808 = 1373.   The "LITTLE" problem is that spx is now @ 1429 or so...and it TOPPED OUT @ 1475 weeks ago, 1 day AFTER QE3.  It didn't top out @ 1373.  So the 808 nunmber is bs.

I did call the top @ 1475 and eur @ 1.315...I have no doubt that spx will break even lower than 565...but the author of the 808 number is massaging the numbers.  So again I called the TOP, when all the stupid cheerleading "reporters" at cnbc, bloomberg and yes even some at foxbusiness were saying "BUY" (HIGH) and "stocks are CHEAP" = me short !!!!

possible minor dead cat bounce next week...but that's all.

by the way, i saw the bottom of spx @ 666, on 3-2009 when QEorganizer came into office...LOL !!!

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 10:50 | 2887156 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

808, DETROIT AVENUE! Girls look hot wearing less than bikinis....

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 11:11 | 2887213 moneybots
moneybots's picture

Everyone has a prediction as to where the market is going to go.

In the late 1980's Ravi Batra wrote The Great Depression of 1990.  Turned out the post Cold War 1920's style credit boom hadn't even happened yet. 

Stocks and Commodities magazine had a story months ago, about someone who had modeled a path for the market, which had it dropping to the vicinity of the 2009 low this year and jumping to a new all time high a few years down the road.  Needless to say, the market has been nowhere near 666 this year.  Another broken model based on past projection.

Prior to the 2009 low, Crosscurrents had posted something like 640 as their predicted low.  As far as i am aware, i don't believe they think 666 will be seen again.

Going back to the 1920's, there is a long term regression line.  2002 fell back to it and 2009 fell below it.  We are now coming up to the regression line from underneath.  If the regression line is going to contiue to hold true, we are either going to move back above it or fall back below it, but the regression line itself will still be rising, thus the fall below the line would not likely move below the line, farther than the 2009 low did.  If that be true, with the regression line higher, the next -X deviation would not likely take the market down to 666, just as the 1982 low did not fall below the 1974 low, despite double digit unemployment in the 1982 recession.

 

 

 

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