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The Punch Line: All The Charts That's Fit To Print

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Abe Gulkowitz, publisher of the periodic chart masterpiece The Punch Line, has released his latest macro economic update full of 17 pages of charts and news blurbs indicating the true state of the economy in an easily digestible format. While it will hardly come as a surprise to most, the prevalent chart direction is one from the top left to the bottom right in practically every macro vertical, despite the now endless monetary intervention attempts by all central developed world central banks. 

The Punch Line's punchline: 

With prospects of sizeable liquidity injections by central banks, there were growing expectations of at least stabilization in world growth prospects. Moreover, the U.S. housing debacle appeared to be easing, with building evidence of improvement in key parameters of this important sector. As a result, risky asset prices were quickly lifted to new highs, a move so dramatic that it had airs of the heady days just a few years ago – before the great financial breakdown. The realities of a fiscal nightmare for the U.S. economy plus continued difficulties on the European front, and mounting weakness in Asia combined to trigger a rethink in markets. Recent history suggests the two parties in the U.S. are seriously polarized and heroics may be needed to get them to come together and form a viable plan. Even if U.S. housing shows evidence of a crawling recovery, capital expenditures are slowing. Indeed, signs of business caution are seen in US and German factory orders The weakness in Europe was also evidenced by several recent developments. The collapse of a major European cross-border deal and downgrades of two leading car makers became stark reminders of how precarious life in the Eurozone has become. BAE’s proposed merger with EADS was always likely to face obstacles and it was confirmed on Wednesday that the deal had collapsed. This was always a deal that needed not only management to approve, but also the governments of France, the UK and Germany. So much for economic union! Autos were also key barometers in the Eurozone. Moody’s downgraded Peugeot and Fiat to Ba3 from Ba2. And it is not just a function of years of austerity in the EU and weak growth. These firms face significant challenges in restructuring their auto operations, and even if it successful, credit metrics will be stressed beyond the current rating category. Peugeot suffers from its exposure to southern Europe, as does Fiat. Italy still makes up the bulk of Fiat’s sales and demand for cars is declining. The charts on the auto sector in this chart packet are telling. Bottom line, even with temporary setbacks, the recent shifts in stimulus policy will come back as the final backstops and dominate the markets.

And a representative chart of how not everything is as good as 5 episodes of quantitative easing would make it seem:

 

Full slideshow (pdf):

The Punch Line

 


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Sun, 10/14/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if they really want the economy to be driven by the consumer then the fed should break up that 85 bil a month and send each person 10k a month from here to eternity. Let's do it Ben.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I think 40billion / 300 million is $133 per month.  My math could be off but I wouldn't mind a bit if the Fed sent every man, woman, and child $133/month.  We could be a gallon of gas or a pound of hamburger.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

Yes, or give each unemployed person in the US an annual salary of $81,000.

But that won't accomplish the real goal of QEternity:  Buying garbage underwater MBS from the banks at full value.   Don't you see?   It's simply yet another bank bailout that a few years ago our politiicians and regulators screamed would "never happen again."    It's happening again, billions each month.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Bring it on.  We re doomed.

 

Yell stock XYZ at its lows all day.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Take it for what is< here it is in living color. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

Personally, I think the numbers are farcical.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Dubbya had it right after all. In order to get the economy going just send out stimulus checks to everyone. At least that way it isnt just the banksters and Wallstreet boyz that reap the benefits of Fed largesse.

 Ironic that it took a Republican president to do that, while Obumma does exactly what again?

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Chart Porn Sunday!

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

With prospects of sizeable liquidity injections by central banks, there were growing expectations of at least stabilization in world growth prospects. 

You what?

How is central banks pumping electronic digits into bankrupt rotten banks supposed to do anything for economic growth?!!!

All they're doing is a book keeping entry/trick, it has zippo to do with the economy and Sweet Fanny Adams to do with spurring any economic growth

Please connect the dots

(let's not repeat or let passed bankers lies, thank you)

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You just connected them. It's getting hard to comment on here lately because pretty much everyone (on here) has figured this out. We yell it at each other and just out loud to ourselves at this point. It's just tough for us because we are being laughed at by these bankers and the bankers know 99% of us are too stupid or ignorant to figure it out. But rest assured you have it right.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

We know book keeping tricks (transfering electronic digits from Bubble Ben et al to bankrupt Blankfiend et al) does nothing for the economy, nothing for growth and nothing for the unemployed

indeed the Bwankers that are receiving said free lolly are laying off staff by the thousand, so how does Bullshit Ben expect us to believe or anyone past the 1st tier banking line to hire staff if the 1st recipients aren't???

but exposing the lie/s is still important

they know we know they're talking absolute shit (da Emporer has no clothes)

believe me that has an impact on their 'game' just as a poker player hates others knowing when he's bluffing

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

 the laid off bankers are starting boutique hedge funds etc. some mid level people and below are going to get stung but they should be happy the rode along for the good times. the average person is so far from understanding what u know it's not even funny. even if you gave a lecture on this to 100 sheep and had them convinced all it takes is one person to stand up and call u crazy and thats all that is needed for everyone to dismiss you and go back to breaking bad and americas next top piece of shit. 

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

well Mr Con, sorry Cohn, of Goldman Sucks was only on this week explaining how diligently Bullshit Ben surveyed the unemployment figures

so where are all the Feds impact studies on pouring $Trillions into bankrupt banks and how that impacts emplyment prospects and companies?

indeed why isn't Mr Cohn himself providing such to the Fed given that is the Feds stated aim for all this largesse?

i mean if the 1st tier recipients (Wall Street bwankers) are laying off staff, how in his right mind does Bubble Ben think companies further down the line are going to employ staff???

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ohhhhhhh...that's what they mean by wealth effect.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Anyone remember the "Misery Index" from the early eighties?

Add the current unemployment rate to the current inflation rate = the misery index.

In the early eighties with high inflation, high interest and high unemployment, the misery index floated around in the mid-twenty range.

Todays statistical data sets from the government are worthless to use, however if we use shadowstats data sets, which use the much more accurate 1980 methodology, we have a "Misery Index" of 32.1 WOW!

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Double federal paychecks and get it over with

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Don't give them any even dumber ideas.

We all know Uncle Ben is just stalling for time.

For what exactly ,is the question ?

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Those charts suck. They're almost as pathetic as Turd Ferguson's charts.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment jal
jal's picture

Those charts are great ... for those getting ready for the new world order.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

If you are looking for a bottom in wage changes, keep looking lower  - the chart stops at 1.0 percent.  It neglect to show negative wage growth.

 

Negative wage growth is an extension of a deflationary economy.

Sun, 10/14/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

One of teh only bright spots is teh US car market...but isn't that fueled by more 'subprime' auto loans? If so then it's only another bill that taxpayers will ultimately pick up.

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 01:41 | Link to Comment scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Hourly wages are going down, but commodities, including food, gasoline, heating oil are going thru the roof. A double whammy for Americans and the world. A double heaping of salt and vinegar to a deep open wound. An insult after a slap after a rape.

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 02:50 | Link to Comment Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

 

What you said is the result of the central planners talking up central bank accommodation and trying to raise inflation expectations.  Only thing their easy money and jawboning has succeeded in is spiking commodities and inflating stocks...iow hurting the real economy while encouraging speculation at the average person's expense.

On the subject of commodities, watching for Jan beans to put in a short term low somewhere around here...between 1475/80 and 1500.       

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I mean, just wow.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!