Chart Of The Day: Hourly Earnings, Or The Lack Thereof

Tyler Durden's picture

You know the drill: please point out on this chart, which shows the yearly change in average hourly earnings for all US private workers, just where is this so-called "recovery", which an additional $6 trillion in public debt, and 5 quantitative easing episodes, have allegedly created out of thin air. For those confused, like us, we bring attention to the fact that in the past two months we have seen the smallest Y/Y increase in avg hourly earnings. Ever.

Source: St Louis Fed

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GetZeeGold's picture



Earned credit at the company store...that carp is overpriced and it's not even brand named.


Screwed again Amigos.


Alpo for Granny's picture

At first glance, I thought I was looking at a daily silver chart.


Fuck you JPM.

LongSoupLine's picture



just another buying opportunity my friend...Blythe's day is coming, just BTFD, pick up some more MRE's for the basement shelves and hang tight.

Be strong my silver brothers!

Arttrader's picture

"The private sector is doing fine"!

LongSoupLine's picture

...that carp is overpriced...


that's nothing...have you seen salmon pricing?!

GetZeeGold's picture



Wouldn't know......I shop in the Spam aisle.


I don't think that crap comes from the sea Amigo.



pods's picture

Well they are feeding Chinese farm raised fish with Spam crap, so close enough.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't you mean "Spam carp" a new GMO fish breed? :)

Offthebeach's picture

Is that adjusted for cheaper I -Pads( Dudley Variable )?

Robslob's picture

Where is My Raise MR. BERNANKE?

cossack55's picture

JPM is holding for you, its in the Corzyne account.

disabledvet's picture

"and all I got was a Greek island" no less.

duo's picture

I think he meant since 1913

fonzannoon's picture

is this chart proof hyperinflation won't happen? More likely stagflation where people just go piss broke trying to stay afloat? 

northerngirl's picture

I think that is already happening.

fonzannoon's picture

sorry edit (continue to) go piss broke....

Zadok's picture

I KNOW it's already happening!

Jack Sheet's picture


you are confusing wage-pull inflation with currency-induced cost push inflation

Even as hourly earnings are falling, the "real" CPI  is rising at an annual rate of 5 to 9% using the 1990 or 1980 measures, respectively (source:

fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for the info Jack. I sometimes fall back into the bullshit current calculations and forget how they keep changing the way they input the data.

pods's picture

There is a lot of money to be made for someone to translate government BS into useful, real world information.

Shadowstats does a very good job.  The cliff notes version is all the bad charts go up, the good ones are falling.


kridkrid's picture

I don't think we can conclude that it wont happen, can we? Each individual doesn't have to have more money for prices to bid up, there only needs to be enough bidders with enough money, no? I think what is more likely, however, will be big supply chain disruptions. We will see price inflation in key inputs that will force an increase in prices in the final product, or the final product won't be delivered.

Bi-flation... Increase in the price of things you need, decrease in the price of the things you already own. In the US, we have a long ways to go until we spend the same % of our income on food as most of the rest of the world... This will change rapidly over the next 12-24 months, I would guess... If the whole thing doesn't unravel first.

Shizzmoney's picture

Remember, folks, that the magic number is 40%.  Right now, Americans are at around 17-20% for how much of their income is eaten up by food expenses. Once it gets to 40% = revolution.  Hell, it even happens ealier in some nations, like Tunisia.

You can only skae the bottle so much until the fizz pops out (that's what she said).

kridkrid's picture

^^^ this. And it would be more than 20% if people would buy healthy food. But people are able to keep grocery bills in limbo by replacing produce with packaged garbage. This fuels the obesity epedimic and raises healthcare costs. Nice vicous cycle. Someday this war's going to end...

dark pools of soros's picture

laughable.... EBTs will just rise and stagflation will go until only the rich are left to squeeze themselves..  then hyperinflation happens as they all race out the door

Kickaha's picture

Well, its just statistical verification that wages in the USA are, and have been, much higher than what the rest of the world receives for essentially the same labor.  Think of it as a "wage bubble".  That bubble is bursting while inflation is ongoing.

The only "structural problem" we have with the US economy is that wages are still way too high, and roughly 25% of the working age population is prohibiting from working by minimum wage law because they don't know how to do anything that produces value in excess of the $10.00 per hour or so it costs a business to employ them under current minimum wage laws.

Instead they sponge off government programs to stay alive.

I don't think that chart is adjusted for inflation, and with inflation rates really running higher than 6% right now, you are looking at negative real wage deceleration year over year.

That is the intended goal of current economic policy.  It is politically impossible to tell any part of a constituency that they must take a wage cut.  It is much easier to just inflate the currency to produce a slow but steady decline in real wages until those folks who used to work in manufacturing can once again become employable.  As a nice side effect, you can give all of the newly printed currency behind the inflation to those who make the largest political contributions and thereby boost your chances of re-election.

Other nations, of course, will have their central banks do the same thing in a race to the bottom.  Maybe we will reach a point where real wages become so cheap compared to the cost of transportation and distribution that importation of goods manufactured overseas will no longer be profitable unless those goods are truly non-fungible.

China's hoard of dollar denominated investments will be greatly devalued in the process.

This is the plan.  What could possibly go wrong?

monogratis's picture

If America had a higher savings rate, then we would likely have seen higher inflation as they pulled money out of their savings to buy stuff.


When inflation rises AND people have no savings AND wages remain stagnant, then we are talking about a serious problem here.


The only people who seems to have any money are a) government jobs b) government pensions c) military d)government contractors e)government bailed out bankers f)government bailed out realtors g)government subsidized big box stores


Retail sector be damned......

max2205's picture

Plot Govt wages growth then watch the riots

nmewn's picture

No shit.


"When benefits such as health care and pensions are included, the federal compensation advantage over private workers is even larger, according to the BEA data. In 2011, federal worker compensation averaged $128,226, or about double the private-sector average of $64,560. Figure 2 shows that average federal compensation has grown rapidly over the last decade."

BigDuke6's picture

I guess that shows how much a vote is worth to them.

nmewn's picture

Its a vicious symbiotic relationship Big D.

Make a segment of the population dependent on government for direct employment. Make another segment dependent on that federal employee for "their services". Make still other segments dependent on the federal government for contracts (from defense to Volts to fucking windmills). It all works fine until no one accepts the Benny bucks paid for their labor because the tax base has been completely destroyed.

Well, I finally got my riding lawnmower loaded up this morning to take it in for repair. I'll be paying the shop owner with money I earned in the private sector and I will be taxed on it...which is the way it was designed...or I could just print a few Benny bucks like they do ;-)

Whoa Dammit's picture

Its hard to have a viable society when stupidity and bureaucracy is rewarded twice as well as intelligence and independence.

nmewn's picture

Well stated.

Friggin LTER was on here last night saying regulation (which requires a bureaucracy) had actually gone down. I asked her where she heard that from and she ran away...again...with her tail between her

Anyways, I gotta run too and get this mower fixed.


LongSoupLine's picture

riots??? by Americans?  lol...not until Starbucks is boarded up, SNAP is shut down and Dancing with the Stars is pulled off the air.


I think you overestimate the priorities and attention span of the average American.

10mm's picture

Esp white americans,they don't riot.

GetZeeGold's picture



White Americans just shoot....don't piss them off.


They'll put up with a lot a crap....but I wouldn't advise pushing it.


toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Nobody wants to see what millions of crazy, armed American citizens, Patriots, verterans, and so on could do in a fight! The U.S. Marshalls must direct the prison buses and paddy wagons to Washington and Wall Street while the military clamps down the border...


With multiple liens placed on the FED, the BIS, and the rest of the American Corporation, the Corporation is already literally under arrest. Once the real arrests occur and the media turns on the global cabal, we win. However, reconciling 100 years of financial rape will be the hard part. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  just like the "elites" they hire professionals.  Long soldiers of fortune.

LongSoupLine's picture

"elites" hire the Fed.  Long silver.

LawsofPhysics's picture

no shit, and who does the Fed's dirty work again?  I suggest you read "Confessions of an economic hitman"

LongSoupLine's picture

great point...(however, I'm still long silver)

Offthebeach's picture

Fat, diabetic on disability slobs don't riot. Their couch atrophied knees won't take the standing and their scooters batteries are crap.
Besides, this fall's cable line up of new shows is snapping up nicely.

cossack55's picture

Fair warning. Doing as you suggest will make you a terrrrist.

Robslob's picture

 So true Max...looks like the Guberment wants THE MASSES TO JOIN THE "OTHER 1%"...

LongSoupLine's picture

no worries, Hilsenrath and Dudley are pumping the recovery propaganda MSM dildo up everyone's ass today...all's better now.

Mister Ponzi's picture

These are nominal average hourly earnings changes. It would be interesting to see this chart in real terms using a realistic estimate of inflation in order to see how earnings did really develop over time.

WatchingIgnorance's picture

Shoot. I thought the winner was the one that reached the bottom first.

Yeah . . .  urrr . . . ummm . . .

Luckily, we can print our way to prosperity.