Complete Event Calendar For The Coming Week And Through November
A new week begins. Here are the major global market-moving events to look forward to for both the next week, and for the remainder of October and November.
Monday 15 Oct 2012
- US Empire Manufacturing Oct; Previous: -10.41; Consensus: -4.8
- US Retail Sales Less Autos Sep; Previous: 0.8; Consensus: 0.6
- US Advance Retail Sales Sep; Previous: 0.9; Consensus: 0.7
Tuesday 16 Oct 2012
- UK CPI (% YoY) Sep 2.5; Consensus:2.3
- UK RPI (% YoY) Sep 2.9; Consensus:2.7
- EC CPI (% YoY) Sep 2.7; Consensus:2.7
- GE ZEW Survey (Econ. sent iment ) Oct -18.2; Consensus: -15
- US Industrial Production Sep -1.2; Consensus:0.2
- US NAHB Housing Market Index Oct 40; Consensus: 41
- US Capacity Ut ilizat ion (%) Sep 78.2; Consensus: 78.3
- US CPI Ex Food & Energy (% YoY) Sep 1.9; Consensus: 2.0
- US Consumer Price Index (% YoY) Sep 1.7; Consensus: 1.8
Wednesday 17 Oct 2012
- UK Claimant count rate (%) Sep; Previous: 4.8; Consensus: 4.8
- UK Claimant count change, k Sep; Previous: -15; Consensus: -3.0
- UK Bank of England Releases MPC Minutes
- US Housing Starts, k Sep; Previous: 750; Consensus: 770
- US Building Permits, k Sep; Previous: 803; Consensus: 810
Thursday 18 Oct 2012
- UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (% MoM) Sep; Previous: 3.1; Consensus: 2.6
- CH Real GDP (% YoY) 3Q; Previous: 7.6; Consensus: 7.4
- US Initial Jobless Claims, k 13/10/12 Previous: 363; Consensus: 375
- US Continuing Claims, k 06/10/12 Previous: 3265; Consensus: 3290
- US Philadelphia Fed. Oct; Previous: -1.9; Consensus: 0.0
Friday 19 Oct 2012
- EC EU Summit
- US Existing Home Sales (%MoM) Sep; Previous: 7.8; Consensus: -2.5
- US Existing Home sales, mln Sep; Previous: 4.82; Consensus: 4.70
- UK PSNB ex intervent ion, GBP bln Sep; Previous: 14.4; Consensus: 13.4
And for those keeping a close eye on Europe, here is the European event bulletin for October and November:
- Mid-October: IMF staff to go to Cyprus: IMF technical staff are due to return to Cyprus to discuss the details of an EU-IMF bailout package.
- 16 October: Spain auction. Bills.
- 16 October: Greece auction. Bills.
- 18 October: Greek ‘prior actions’. The austerity and reform moves necessary to bring the Greek loan programme back on track are due to be legislated by 18 October.
- 18 October: Spain auction. Bonds.
- 18-19 October: EU leaders' summit. The 18-19 October EU leaders’ summit is unlikely to see a quantum leap on crisis resolution. There is bound to be discussion of Spain and Greece, but we do not expect decisions on either. The interim report on deeper euro area integration from the Van Rompuy 'quartet' is set to present the idea of a common euro area budget. This will be very modest in size and medium-term in implementation at best. That leaves the common bank supervisor as the main swing variable for the summit. The emergence of consensus around issues such as scope, timing and the balance of power between the ECB and EBA could alleviate fears of a logjam. See separate article in this issue of Focus Europe.
- 21 October: Spanish regional elections. The Basque Country and Galicia hold elections.
- 23 October: Spain auction. Bills
- 26 October: Italy auction: Bonds
- 28 October: Sicily regional elections.
- 28 October: Finnish municipal elections. Markets will be particularly attuned to the fortunes of the anti- EU True Finns party. In the last municipal elections in 2008, the True Finns party increased its proportion of the vote from 0.9% to 5.4%. Opinion polls this summer have put the party's support in the 11-16% range. This would be a less substantial swing to the TF compared to the parliamentary elections in April 2011 when the proportion of the vote compared to the preceding election increased from 4.1% to 19.1%. In quotes on Bloomberg on 31 August 2012, Finnish PM Katainen tried to allay fears about the government’s position on the euro crisis: Rescues “are difficult in all countries, Finland is no exception”. “We’ve taken part in all bailouts and we will continue to act responsibly. We’re looking for ways that don’t increase joint liability, but we do want to resolve the crisis”.
- 29 October: Spain bond redemption. Between these redemptions and the redemptions on 31 October, Spain will have to finance EUR20.3bn of bonds.
- 29 October: Italy auction. Bills
- 30 October: Italy auction. Bonds.
- 31 October: Spain bond redemption. Between these redemptions and the redemptions on 29 October, Spain will have to finance EUR20.3bn of bonds.
- 31 October: ECB lending survey. The ECB is due to publish its quarterly euro area bank lending survey on Wednesday 31 October.
- End October: Cyprus Troika review. Dow Jones newswires reported that Cyprus was aiming to complete a bailout deal with the Troika by 20 October. This follows on from earlier comments by the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus has stated that the bank aims to bring bailout negotiations with the international lenders to a conclusion by the end of October. This would allow assistance to be agreed at the Eurogroup meeting on 12 November.
- Start-November: ESM ready to make financial commitments. After the first board meeting on 8 October, ESM Director Klaus Regling said the new fund would be available to make financial commitments to Spain’s bank recapitalisation programme from the start of November.
- 3-4 November: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Meet in Mexico.
- 6 November: US presidential election.
- 6 November: Greece auction. Bills.
- 7 November: European Commission Economic Forecasts. Autumn update.
- 8 November: Spain auction. Bonds.
- 8 November: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference. We forecast an interest rate cut only in Q1 2013.
- 12/13 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN finance ministers’ meetings. Chances are EU finance ministers will still be discussing how to finance an extension of the Greek loan programme. Agreement on the bailout deal for Cyprus may also be on the agenda.
- 13 November: Italy auction. Bills.
- 13 November: Greece auction. Bills.
- 14 November: Portuguese strike. The CGTP (General Confederation of Portuguese Workers), the largest trade union confederation in Portugal, is to stage a strike against the government’s austerity measures.
- 14 November: Italy auction. Bonds.
- 15 November: Q3 GDP reports. Eurostat will publish the flash estimate of euro area GDP growth for Q3 2012. Our current estimate in -0.3% qoq.
- 20 November: Spain auction. Bills.
- 21 November: Spain auction. Bonds.
- 22-23 November: EU Leaders’ Summit. Ostensibly to discuss the EU Budget for 2014-2020, but also an occasion to address crisis policies. This may be the date when leaders will make their decisions on the Greek loan programme.
- 25 November: Catalonia regional election. Early elections for the parliament of the autonomous region called by Arturo Mas, head of the Catalan regional government.
- 27 November: Spain auction. Bills.
- 27 November: Italy auction. Bonds.
- 28 November: Italy auction. Bills.
- 29 November: Italy auction. Bonds.