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Retail Sales Beat Expectations, As Empire Index Misses, Negative For Third Month In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The economic data twofer this morning was a beat and a miss. Retail sales increased by 1.1% on expectations of a 0.8% increase, with the last month's data being revised from 1.2% to 0.9%. Headline retail sales, ex autos was up 1.1% on expectations of a 0.7% print, and up from an upward revised 1.0%. Some of the main drivers in the September retail sales pick up were in electronics and appliance stores, which rose 4.5% from August (thank you iPhone 5), Gasoline Stations +2.5%, and Motor vehicle and parts dealers 1.3%, which continue to be a notable driver of retail strength for the second month in a row.

Retail sales ex-auto/gas seems to hit a wall around+1.1%...

 

As for the miss, it came from the Empire Fed, which increased from September's -10.41, to -6.16, but missed expectations of a -4 print. New Orders improved modestly from -14.03 to -8.97, and ironically was the only subindex in the entire report that staged an increase. Shipments declined to a negative print, from 2.75 to -6.40. Declines were also recorded in Delivery Times, Unfilled Orders, Inventories, Prices Paid, Prices Received, the average Employee Workweek, and most importantly, Number of Employees which declined from 4.26 to -1.08. Not even the forward looking indicators, so critical to consumer "confidence" managed to rise, dropping from 27.22 to 19.42.

Empire Fed headline data has missed 3 months in a row...

 

From the report:

The general business conditions index was negative for a third consecutive month in October, pointing to a continued deterioration in business conditions for New York manufacturers. The index rose four points to -6.2, with 25 percent of respondents reporting that conditions had improved over the month and 31 percent reporting that conditions had worsened. The new orders index climbed five points but, at -9.0, remained negative, indicating that orders were continuing to decline. The shipments index fell below zero for the first time in more than a year, dropping nine points to -6.4—a sign that shipments were lower. The unfilled orders index was slightly lower at -18.3. The delivery time index fell six points to -4.3, and the inventories index edged down to  -2.2.

 

Employment Indexes Weaken

 

The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were little changed. At 17.2, the prices paid index remained near its level of the past few months, suggesting that moderate input prices increases were continuing. The prices received index held at 4.3, indicating a small increase in selling prices. The index for number of employees fell for a second consecutive month and, at -1.1, suggested that employment levels were essentially fl at. Prior to September, this index had shown modest increases in employment throughout much of the year. The average workweek index fell three points to -4.3, signaling a shorter workweek.

Source.

 

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Mon, 10/15/2012 - 08:45 | 2889789 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dammit.....so close too.

 

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 08:47 | 2889793 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Look at shittybank go. At this pace it will be a $4 stock soon. Rejoice!

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:02 | 2889816 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NEVER!

because they'll just do another reverse stock split and repeat that until there's only 1 share left...

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 08:52 | 2889799 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

wow, another govt produced stat that positive just before the election...no one could have predicted this!

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 08:53 | 2889801 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

LOL at the retail sales report.  Every category, *seasonally unadjusted*, declined from August.  So, naturally, adjusted retail sales increased 1.1%.

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Also, gasoline was down, unadjusted.  They must have timed the snapshots perfectly for that, or people have quit driving with the high prices.

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:08 | 2889825 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ex auto/gas.  You can't borrow at 0%.., unless you are an illegal Columbian drug runner, buying a crappy government motors pick-up destined for old Mehico, or the chop shop.  Bureau of Making Shit Up.

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:16 | 2889847 Jason T
Jason T's picture

SA and NSA are quite sound .. do the year over year % change to look for abnormalities  in either.  

 

I'm a year over year % change kind of guy

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:01 | 2889812 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Everything is bullish. Even misses are bullish. Happy days are here again.

 

Fuck You Bernanke

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:02 | 2889815 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Do retail sales increase equal retail profits?

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:06 | 2889822 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My Government Stats:

1.4 million more students, farmers, truck drivers and retirees have woken up to this Governments bullshit statistics in September.

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:11 | 2889834 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Gubbermint is desparate for people to spend...stop saving serfs.

All they have left is to jack-up oil and food prices...you have to buy them.

 

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:16 | 2889845 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

profits are evil!

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 09:29 | 2889879 realtick
realtick's picture

FRED + Excel Deconstructs Nominal Nonsense: Retail Sales http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/fred-excel-deco...

Mon, 10/15/2012 - 13:06 | 2890919 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Well well, lookie hear, 4 straight positive economic reports in a row since the clown in chief got creamed in the debate.   Labor markets made a remarkable turn around that not one economist predicted , then we had consusmer confidence off the charts (complte bullshit) then of couse jobless claims at  5 year low, now this  lie.  Yeah sure, this governent is one by and for the people and not courrpt at all!!  yup!  Foks, this is a clown show and if you buy any of it you have bougght into the biggest lie in history short of Biden not knowing what happened in Bengazhsi.

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