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The Curious Case Of Debate-Day Stock Market Surges

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In addition to the mysterious volley of recent economic data points that have blown even the most optimistic expectations out of the water, it is perhaps notable that not only is the economy in agreement with the status quo in the month before the election, but so is the market, and as can be seen below, on presidential (and vice) debate days, the market has posted some truly six sigma returns. For the month of October, the S&P 500 futures have risen a cumulative 20 points on the days of the debate; and fallen a cumulative 4.75pts on the non-debate days. Forget needing moar QE, we need moar debates! While we leave up to our readers to divine the implications of such outlier moves on debate days, our only suggestion for those who have missed their opportunity to buy the central bank policy vehicle, formerly known as the S&P 500, with both hands and feet, is to wait until the next presidential debate and go all in. After all, "it's only fair" that the market will soar hours ahead of the two teleprompter-less candidates debating highly irrelevant stuff.

 

Cumulative S&P 500 futures performance for October...

 

and Obama's Intrade Odds...

 


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Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment SemperFord
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Who really wants to watch two puppets yapping about things they don't mean anyway?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Or understand?

DavidC

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

its a 'town hall' debate... but all questions are pre-screened and approved, and no follow up questions are permitted.   this is entertainment folks, for mind control purposes only.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

We've all heard of animal spirits -- how about "clown spirits?"

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

You mean like gin?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:24 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

What was pretty useful both times was to have it on, muted.
Content (spoken word) is useless.
Watch the body language.
Was most telling each time.

Only need to do it a few brief moments.

Then back to the Yankees games.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Exactly!  (Except for the Yankees part)

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I think I will take the opportunity to do the same thing as Romney and Ogolfer-- masturbate

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No shit.  Just imagine if Romney actually called Obama out on John Corzine?  "What's that mister president, this criminal is now working for your campaign? Well, I think that tells the American People all they need to know, thank you and good night."

Two puppets, same master.  Bloody sheep.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Romney would probably suck Corzine's dick if he could. One of the greatest capital thieves to ever exist. A true master.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

yes, but it's always fun when someone goes "off script".

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Fun when some actual unitentional "truth" slips out...pregnant pause ensues and then bring it back to the script w/ a quick God bless Merica.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It starts to look like that scene in 'Scanners'...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm sure Romney has already had a taste of Corzine

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

"Two puppets, same master."

Bingo!

They all drink from the same gloryhole.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

So Kremlinology is still a science after all ? 

 

After all this in-between-the-lines reading I grew tired of prawda and her new world equivalents.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Srsly.  The main question that should be asked to both should be: "How does it feel guys to be fighting over the dubious position to be the lucky guy who will captain a sinking ship?"


The only thing this election is going to decide is whether or not Uncle Sam and his Crony Capitialist asshole friend will be fingering me with the left hand, or the right.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

"...two teleprompter-less candidates debating highly irrelevant stuff".

Quite.

DavidC

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Looks like the chart of ZHer's alcohol consumption...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

good idea, I think thats what I'll do instead of watching the debate! thanks krispkritter

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm already drunk. I miss Vikrim

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Blasé Faire
Blasé Faire's picture

The negative on non-debate days comes from the inevitable vomiting as a result of the necessary over-intoxication on debate days.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

2nd Pres. debate.  Obama will be "inpolite and forceful" to Romney: it will create an impression of power in Obama.  Obama chances will go up.  Market will go down.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama doesn't really want to win. He can claim doubling the stock market in his four years of power and his successor will inherit the mess, so that in another four years the Democrats can say 'Look where the stock markets were when they won and look where they are now, S&P back at 666'.

A bit like Blair handing the poisoned chalice to Gordon Brown.

DavidC

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

hard to imagine the Madoff's can keep this thing alive 4 more years. Next prez should be the bag holder

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

If he understood the currency crisis and what is likely to happen during his term, I doubt he'd very much want to be the hub of all blame when it all falls appart. Then again he can just blame Bush.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Americans lose either way -

If Romney wins: riots will ensue, a good portion of the intelligent class will leave the country, and we will go to war with Iran by next summer.  The upside? DOW 20,000 bitchez!

If Obama wins: the "Great White Flight" of white corporatist revenge will begin, with a mass market sell off on top of a round of massive layoffs in protest of a "Black Socialist" in power.  And we might still go to war with Iran.

Job creation will net out.  Money printing will continue.  And the U.S. will still continue to export fail.

There is going to be a Republican president in 2016 if Obama wins, IMO.  No way the racist evangelical white lets 8 years of being under a black man slide without repercussions.  I predict, if he doesn't step on his dick, Rubio to be President with Christie as vice. 

 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:27 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The market, which has doubled the last few years with these guys at the helm, is now going to go down at the prospect of these guys staying at the helm? I don't mean to pick at your comment. Trying to think these scenario's through has caused the neurons in my brain to misfire lately.

This whole thing is so fucking retarded.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

I'm with you 100% fonzannoon.

DavidC

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Don't make a difference.
The Fed's already put the money in the system, inflation some day in the future will be brutal making the 70's look like fairy tales...
There will be a reset of the financial system.
There always is.
Even in spite of and because of the monetary and fiscal excesses redoubled.

For a PM holder ya' can't ask for anything better.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Car people, who are totally imbecile, must predict a market sell-off on better Obama chances after strong debate, because Obama will keep on Bernanke who lifts the market.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

you mean it's not a free market?  geez

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

The market won't be allowed to sell-off until at least Thursday (if ever).  If the market sold off tomorrow, people might conclude it was because of something Obomney said.  If the market is supported until Thursday, a sell-off can be blamed on something else entirely.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if they do actually have the ability to lift this market, why not keep it propped up indefinitely? 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Isn't that what they've been trying to do since 2009?

DavidC

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment slaughterer
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GS makes more commisions on the way down than the way up.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Why did you have to bring those guys up... and then I start thinking of Krugman in the same brain space and my day goes all to hell...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

For me, the fundamental risk factor overnight is an over-extended EURO (> 1.300 EUR/USD) and the onset of some nasty tech earningd (INTC very important tonight). EUR/USD should fall back below 1.300 and INTC (which already warned) will have very bad guidance.  These are reasons why I am not LONG silver right now, nor am I any more on the AAPL "event" train.    

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Nah, the 'winner' will be determined by which outcome best drives viewership for future debates.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment SMG
SMG's picture

It's almost like the market is controled or something.  Hmmm.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Nah... Merely a coincidence. I'm sure retail investors feeling good about their E*Trade accounts (and consequently the status quo) on the same day as a presidential "debate" has nothing to do with influencing the mind on the unconscious level.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

"It's almost like the market is controled or something.  Hmmm."

You troll!!  You only wrote that to make us ZHers look like crazy conspiracy kooks.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Instead of using logic and reality to predict what SHOULD happen, why don't we just use MOPE to predict what WILL happen? Psychology is more important than fundamentals and technical analysis now, isn't it? The market is a post-modernist, text-derived, statistical reality that will go where it's told... until something breaks or it behooves the owners to create another catastrophe to push through some changes or cash in a profit.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Citizens asking questions will be mostly liberals. Questions will be about entitlements, illegal immigrants, and who knows, killing fetuses.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

We need more conservative friendly questions having to do with Big Bird's outrageous pension and whether black people are trying to bankrupt the white race via Obamaphones.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well I'm going to tune in to see who is going to do something about bombing any of those illegal Libyan immigrants who come out against gay marriages because they make less than $250,000 a year...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Killing fetuses?
Can't be killing.. all the uber liberals think that killing in wars is WRONG!

Moral delima...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Ron Paul : Remember the golden rule, don't do to others what you wouldnt want them to do to you...

GOP crowd : *booohhhh*

Indeed, we need more debates, to clarify the true state of zombiness in which the US citizenry finds itself.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

It's like silver touching the $33 mark, than falling below due to algorithmic trades. Amazing the infrastructure the elites have in this modern system of the matrix.

If it wasn't for our fellows here at ZH, I would think, I was completely mad. Now I only think partially mad.....

 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

See my above comment MassDecep, if it was not for this site, and watching other extremely intelligent people come undone mentally on here, I would think I was insane....

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
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Not sure that I would be coherent without ZH.  Now I aim for soft walls to bang my head against.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
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I'm sure it's just a coincidence...like every other unexplainable large sigma "market" moves.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment crusty curmudgeon
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""it's only fair" that the market will soar hours ahead of the two teleprompter-less candidates debating highly irrelevant stuff."

Highly irrelevant?  On behalf of big bird, I'm insulted.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

I think that tonight will not be a debate, but rather a series of sound bites.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

but sound bites is what the populace loves - regurgitating the same BS propaganda that is heard on FOX, CNN, MSNBC, etc.  as someone who has sold their soul to the devil, i chose a career path of marketing and can vehemently vouch for the importance of a stated, consistent message over time - this is what gets people to 'buy in'

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Hmmm, Shouldnt this be under the things that make you go hmmmmm portion of our show?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

Market? we cant call this a market anymore, a market is a place where you can buy something of value. this is nothing but a election,bullshit driven,button pushing monkeys bent on getting your last dollar casino.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

More precisely, a market is a place where the value of something to the investor determines it's price. Clearly the Fed's policy is to determinine what return you can get, and therefore what investments you will choose, and therefore the value of all investments.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

i thought we were up because everything is fixed in Europe with Spain's new Visa card? I'm glad I saw this post, means we can have at least one more "everything is fixed" rally before the end of the week

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Highly irrelevent stuff? I look forward to hearing who is going to keep me best distracted over the next four years.

 

There should be a good made for TV war coming up soon...my money is on Romney for the best  explosion special effects.

 

 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

-Romney will say "gold" in public someday.
-Merely mentioning gold/ silver is anathema, won't happen.

 

^What's the over under. The mutterings of the GOP having a gold standard commission... I don't think Mittens will ever say the word gold. Can't picture it really.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
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except when teaching the grand-kids about the magic golden plates, of course

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
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Yes, probably why he left zion for massachusetts.  Utah now accepts gold and silver as money.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/10/utah-legislature-goes-go...

 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:40 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Oh that could really rattle the Masai Warrior....
Gold, FED, money, inflation, debt.......
All in one big fucking polite tirade of Truth Justice and the American Way

Then ask him for his draft card....

Forward Bitchez!

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
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deleted

 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

The Only Thing Deflating That I Can See Is.... Everything http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-only-thing-...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right.  Put up a chart of the world's human population and then and show us the "deflation" in that. -  FAIL.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Just tell the market makers to hit Ctrl+Alg238, type in the target number, and hit enter.  The bots will do the rest.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

IMHO the USA is voting for CLEARLY two over qualified guys to be YOUR President. While I have considerable beefs with "things Administrative" I have absolutely no doubt that either of The Two are "up to it." by all means "takes your toys and go home" if you wish...but as has been said to me on an occasion or two "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not coming for you."

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fucking clown show mockery theyve made everything well I hope they enjoy themselves, meanwhile they can fuck off.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

All I know is that with respect to the election the best strategy is undoubtedly to buy the rumor, sell the news. The market is bound to rise because everyone thinks their candidate will win and projects what they hope will be done onto that candidate. There's no way the candidate can live up. More important, once the election is over it will become abundantly clear how serious the fiscal cliff is and how screwed we are when it comes to parties working together, in a lame duck session, to fix it.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment gigeze787
gigeze787's picture

Tyler --

I wish ZH would look at stock market performance on each day that Bernanke has made a speech (Jackson Hole, etc.) or congressional testimony (Humphrey-Hawkins) since March 1, 2009.

Anecdotally, there seems to be a very positive correlation between public statements by Trotskyite central planning oligarchs and market performance. How about some hard data?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

No conspiracy here, it's [b]hedge funds[/b] you are trading against, and when you see large market moves its because a lot of hedge funds did the same thing that day.

Although, today's sharp 40 point drop in the Dow after hours seems a little strange.  Someone big was long all day, then sold it because they didn't want to hold overnight...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment econature
econature's picture

Listening to these 2 imbeciles talk about what's wrong with our country is like listening to scientists talk about how flat the earth is. It should be viewed only for morbidly depressing entertainment value.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

Come back retail investors the markets not rigged..really.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Using spellcheck is such a choar. A boar. Much like Al Goar. And I will do it no moar.

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