The Curious Case Of Debate-Day Stock Market Surges

Tyler Durden's picture


In addition to the mysterious volley of recent economic data points that have blown even the most optimistic expectations out of the water, it is perhaps notable that not only is the economy in agreement with the status quo in the month before the election, but so is the market, and as can be seen below, on presidential (and vice) debate days, the market has posted some truly six sigma returns. For the month of October, the S&P 500 futures have risen a cumulative 20 points on the days of the debate; and fallen a cumulative 4.75pts on the non-debate days. Forget needing moar QE, we need moar debates! While we leave up to our readers to divine the implications of such outlier moves on debate days, our only suggestion for those who have missed their opportunity to buy the central bank policy vehicle, formerly known as the S&P 500, with both hands and feet, is to wait until the next presidential debate and go all in. After all, "it's only fair" that the market will soar hours ahead of the two teleprompter-less candidates debating highly irrelevant stuff.


Cumulative S&P 500 futures performance for October...


and Obama's Intrade Odds...

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Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:21 | 2895572 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Who really wants to watch two puppets yapping about things they don't mean anyway?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2895604 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Or understand?


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:23 | 2895618 john39
john39's picture

its a 'town hall' debate... but all questions are pre-screened and approved, and no follow up questions are permitted.   this is entertainment folks, for mind control purposes only.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:39 | 2895696 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

We've all heard of animal spirits -- how about "clown spirits?"

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:59 | 2895753 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

You mean like gin?

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:24 | 2895849 knukles
knukles's picture

What was pretty useful both times was to have it on, muted.
Content (spoken word) is useless.
Watch the body language.
Was most telling each time.

Only need to do it a few brief moments.

Then back to the Yankees games.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:53 | 2895961 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Exactly!  (Except for the Yankees part)

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:43 | 2895711 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I think I will take the opportunity to do the same thing as Romney and Ogolfer-- masturbate

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2895625 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No shit.  Just imagine if Romney actually called Obama out on John Corzine?  "What's that mister president, this criminal is now working for your campaign? Well, I think that tells the American People all they need to know, thank you and good night."

Two puppets, same master.  Bloody sheep.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:26 | 2895632 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Romney would probably suck Corzine's dick if he could. One of the greatest capital thieves to ever exist. A true master.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | 2895650 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

yes, but it's always fun when someone goes "off script".

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:35 | 2895679 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Fun when some actual unitentional "truth" slips out...pregnant pause ensues and then bring it back to the script w/ a quick God bless Merica.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:39 | 2895698 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It starts to look like that scene in 'Scanners'...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:52 | 2895737 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm sure Romney has already had a taste of Corzine

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:30 | 2895661 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

"Two puppets, same master."


They all drink from the same gloryhole.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | 2895672 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

So Kremlinology is still a science after all ? 


After all this in-between-the-lines reading I grew tired of prawda and her new world equivalents.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:14 | 2895804 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Srsly.  The main question that should be asked to both should be: "How does it feel guys to be fighting over the dubious position to be the lucky guy who will captain a sinking ship?"

The only thing this election is going to decide is whether or not Uncle Sam and his Crony Capitialist asshole friend will be fingering me with the left hand, or the right.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:21 | 2895593 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"...two teleprompter-less candidates debating highly irrelevant stuff".



Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2895597 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Looks like the chart of ZHer's alcohol consumption...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:27 | 2895641 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

good idea, I think thats what I'll do instead of watching the debate! thanks krispkritter

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:54 | 2895743 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I'm already drunk. I miss Vikrim

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | 2895649 Blasé Faire
Blasé Faire's picture

The negative on non-debate days comes from the inevitable vomiting as a result of the necessary over-intoxication on debate days.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2895602 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

2nd Pres. debate.  Obama will be "inpolite and forceful" to Romney: it will create an impression of power in Obama.  Obama chances will go up.  Market will go down.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2895628 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama doesn't really want to win. He can claim doubling the stock market in his four years of power and his successor will inherit the mess, so that in another four years the Democrats can say 'Look where the stock markets were when they won and look where they are now, S&P back at 666'.

A bit like Blair handing the poisoned chalice to Gordon Brown.


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | 2895727 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

hard to imagine the Madoff's can keep this thing alive 4 more years. Next prez should be the bag holder

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:18 | 2895819 GernB
GernB's picture

If he understood the currency crisis and what is likely to happen during his term, I doubt he'd very much want to be the hub of all blame when it all falls appart. Then again he can just blame Bush.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:20 | 2895831 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Americans lose either way -

If Romney wins: riots will ensue, a good portion of the intelligent class will leave the country, and we will go to war with Iran by next summer.  The upside? DOW 20,000 bitchez!

If Obama wins: the "Great White Flight" of white corporatist revenge will begin, with a mass market sell off on top of a round of massive layoffs in protest of a "Black Socialist" in power.  And we might still go to war with Iran.

Job creation will net out.  Money printing will continue.  And the U.S. will still continue to export fail.

There is going to be a Republican president in 2016 if Obama wins, IMO.  No way the racist evangelical white lets 8 years of being under a black man slide without repercussions.  I predict, if he doesn't step on his dick, Rubio to be President with Christie as vice. 


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:27 | 2895637 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The market, which has doubled the last few years with these guys at the helm, is now going to go down at the prospect of these guys staying at the helm? I don't mean to pick at your comment. Trying to think these scenario's through has caused the neurons in my brain to misfire lately.

This whole thing is so fucking retarded.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:29 | 2895645 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I'm with you 100% fonzannoon.


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:31 | 2895892 knukles
knukles's picture

Don't make a difference.
The Fed's already put the money in the system, inflation some day in the future will be brutal making the 70's look like fairy tales...
There will be a reset of the financial system.
There always is.
Even in spite of and because of the monetary and fiscal excesses redoubled.

For a PM holder ya' can't ask for anything better.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:42 | 2895706 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Car people, who are totally imbecile, must predict a market sell-off on better Obama chances after strong debate, because Obama will keep on Bernanke who lifts the market.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:50 | 2895729 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

you mean it's not a free market?  geez

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:56 | 2895738 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

The market won't be allowed to sell-off until at least Thursday (if ever).  If the market sold off tomorrow, people might conclude it was because of something Obomney said.  If the market is supported until Thursday, a sell-off can be blamed on something else entirely.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:56 | 2895748 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if they do actually have the ability to lift this market, why not keep it propped up indefinitely? 

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:08 | 2895775 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Isn't that what they've been trying to do since 2009?


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:10 | 2895783 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GS makes more commisions on the way down than the way up.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:32 | 2895900 knukles
knukles's picture

Why did you have to bring those guys up... and then I start thinking of Krugman in the same brain space and my day goes all to hell...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:13 | 2895797 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

For me, the fundamental risk factor overnight is an over-extended EURO (> 1.300 EUR/USD) and the onset of some nasty tech earningd (INTC very important tonight). EUR/USD should fall back below 1.300 and INTC (which already warned) will have very bad guidance.  These are reasons why I am not LONG silver right now, nor am I any more on the AAPL "event" train.    

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:11 | 2895791 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Nah, the 'winner' will be determined by which outcome best drives viewership for future debates.  

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:23 | 2895612 SMG
SMG's picture

It's almost like the market is controled or something.  Hmmm.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | 2895642 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Nah... Merely a coincidence. I'm sure retail investors feeling good about their E*Trade accounts (and consequently the status quo) on the same day as a presidential "debate" has nothing to do with influencing the mind on the unconscious level.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:31 | 2895653 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

"It's almost like the market is controled or something.  Hmmm."

You troll!!  You only wrote that to make us ZHers look like crazy conspiracy kooks.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2895623 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Instead of using logic and reality to predict what SHOULD happen, why don't we just use MOPE to predict what WILL happen? Psychology is more important than fundamentals and technical analysis now, isn't it? The market is a post-modernist, text-derived, statistical reality that will go where it's told... until something breaks or it behooves the owners to create another catastrophe to push through some changes or cash in a profit.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:24 | 2895624 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Citizens asking questions will be mostly liberals. Questions will be about entitlements, illegal immigrants, and who knows, killing fetuses.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:32 | 2895658 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

We need more conservative friendly questions having to do with Big Bird's outrageous pension and whether black people are trying to bankrupt the white race via Obamaphones.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:45 | 2895712 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well I'm going to tune in to see who is going to do something about bombing any of those illegal Libyan immigrants who come out against gay marriages because they make less than $250,000 a year...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 15:34 | 2895906 knukles
knukles's picture

Killing fetuses?
Can't be killing.. all the uber liberals think that killing in wars is WRONG!

Moral delima...

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2895626 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Ron Paul : Remember the golden rule, don't do to others what you wouldnt want them to do to you...

GOP crowd : *booohhhh*

Indeed, we need more debates, to clarify the true state of zombiness in which the US citizenry finds itself.

Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2895631 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

It's like silver touching the $33 mark, than falling below due to algorithmic trades. Amazing the infrastructure the elites have in this modern system of the matrix.

If it wasn't for our fellows here at ZH, I would think, I was completely mad. Now I only think partially mad.....


Tue, 10/16/2012 - 14:37 | 2895643 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

See my above comment MassDecep, if it was not for this site, and watching other extremely intelligent people come undone mentally on here, I would think I was insane....

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!