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Chart Of The Day: A Glance Into The January 2013 Jobs Report

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We are currently experiencing a pre-election surge in all economic metrics; and then comes the hangover as can be confirmed by looking at hiring plans. Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index (a multi-factor real-time bottom-up economy tracker) has tumbled this month, giving back most of the very recent gains but it is the 'outlook for hiring' that is the most worrisome. Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows. The hiring index dropped 10 points to 44%, its lowest since December 2009, and the hiring plans index sunk 13 points to 44%, lowest since August 2009.  Due to its leading indicator nature, this means that imminent payrolls may not stop rising; but in a few short months will post the first sequential decline since 2010. What this means for the unemployment rate is self-explanatory - but by then the election will be decided.

 

 

Source: Morgan Stanley

 

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Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:28 | 2897925 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

This is definitely bullish too right?   everything is bullish  er  , I mean bull shit.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:31 | 2897940 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

I want them to hire some people to count all the gold and tungsten bars held by the US.

 

And report back within 30 days.

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:36 | 2897969 alstry
alstry's picture

The world is simpy advancing from INDUSTRIALIZATION to AUTOMATION and the need for labor is evaporating.

Pretty soon we will all be milking off the system instead of each other and your next doctor will be IBM Watson as we advance to the http://www.udderworld.com

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:38 | 2897974 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Where have I read this before... it's so familiar.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:47 | 2898002 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Should Brad Pitt play Paul Proteus in the film?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:20 | 2898064 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I lost all respect for that guy after seeing the new Chanel ad he is in.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:33 | 2898101 Badabing
Badabing's picture

I must admit reluctantly, I did watch the debates last night.

The main topic was creating jobs millions of jobs.

Meanwhile back in Lala land the unemployment #s are dropping  looks like we are going to be alright, except the two ass holes on TV last night know the #s are a farce Ergo the jobs topic.

Why do they have to create jobs if the numbers say we’re fine?

Everyone knows the numbers are as fake as the numbers in my avatar.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 14:07 | 2898550 nofluer
nofluer's picture

With total automation, the primary industrial need will become energy and memory units. In return for voluntarily signing up for a position in the matrix, you'll get free lifetime food and medical care, and your choice of entertainment software piped directly into your consciousness and delivered to your matrix physical maintenance unit. Pre-consent for real-time mental processes monitoring must be granted by you to The Company. Based on mental process monitoring results, all potential "Neos" will be filtered out and isolated from the free supply of nutrition, and oxygen supplies will be cut off due to non-payment of fees.

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2898284 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

This if one of the great challenges of the Fed plan If all the liquidity being injected into the economy fails to improve (and quickly) the labor market, we will have an impact (very quickly) in the markets. Beware December that may be a key month.

Fri, 11/16/2012 - 12:20 | 2988095 kall
kall's picture

I prefer not to believe everything the charts say especially because these are predictions. If predictions were always true we would have a financial crisis to go through right now. So the best think I'll do now is to get that free invoice template and get on with my business.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:36 | 2897964 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

All news is bullish!  Algos buy regardless of what the headline is.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:37 | 2897971 alstry
alstry's picture

Pretty soon algos will be running factories.....they are already running our entire financial system.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:02 | 2898030 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Sounds like you just read Steiner's book:  "Automate This"

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:30 | 2897926 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Unemployment down....even less jobs.

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:33 | 2897927 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

One has to wonder how many cuts will come in Nov and Dec due to the Whitehouse you need to wait requests.

It's all total BS.

Take BoFA they announced what 30-40K job cuts in January.

Well guess how many they have done 3-4K maybe.

The avalanche is coming.

Oh yea and just $243 billion left in the debt ceiling Kitty which could easily be half that by first week in November.

Which means a month to breach.

These folks do not have a clue. But hey Timmy G will be out the door. Ain't that rich.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:43 | 2897997 duo
duo's picture

yes, but if everyone is on a 30 hour week to avoid the Obamacare mandate (OK, every worker not in a union), then we'll need 33% more workers compared to the old-style 40 hour week.

Next year 30 hours/week will be considered full time work (like 35 hours in in Germany now).  You heard it here first.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 12:03 | 2898175 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I think there will be some of this, but there is also a huge trend to have former employees become "independent contractors" where possible...  simply bypassing the entire system.  Former employees can then get limited liability protection through their own entities and not be subject to agi limitations/itemizing for business deductions, although self employment taxes, unemployment, and the like will probably more than make up for it...  just depends on how it's set up.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:32 | 2899594 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

Everyone is on a 30 hour week

Everyone will be on a 28 hour week as the cost of going over is punative.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:29 | 2897929 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Bush's fault

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:30 | 2897934 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Is that cat even still alive?

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:34 | 2897954 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I miss the Redblood team claiming it to be the fault of the Mexicans.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:36 | 2897959 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I still blame King Henry.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:39 | 2897976 pods
pods's picture

They're still here, I just saw a Civic with a big ass, bolted on spoiler yesterday.

pods

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:51 | 2898007 centerline
centerline's picture

No, just mastered the art of invisibility.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:22 | 2898068 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Seriously- I saw he is painting pictures of dogs now- look it up.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:31 | 2897937 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

we all here know this and dont need a fucking chart.  the problem is getting this fucking shit out in the MSM...which wont fucking happen.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:32 | 2897943 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I look forward to seeing the defense industries get sued because they complied with the obama regime in breaking the law by not giving 60 days notice before laying off their workers.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:40 | 2897985 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Did you miss the articles where the GOVMINT said they would pay all of the penalties and fees for those lawsuits?  Taxpayers lose again.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-28/white-house-says-workers-shouldnt-get-budget-cut-notices

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:45 | 2897998 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No I didn't see it. but it doesn't surprise me. Thanks for the link.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:04 | 2898038 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yep, this bunch doesn't let little things like propriety or law get in their way.

You would think the MSM lapdogs would be all over this because of blue collar job losses...but no...the administration has promised the taxpayer will take the hit...so its all good.

Must be nice to just pre-announce they are coercing another to circumvent the law (commit a crime) and are going to pay that parties fine with still a third parties money.

The closest analogy I can come up with is the town judge getting someone to rob the baker and give the money to him...with the promise that he will definitely get caught but don't worry about it, there won't be any jail time, just a fine...and he'll make the towns barber pay the fine.

Its fucking insane.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:07 | 2898042 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Right now somewhere far away Orwell is yelling "I TOLD YOU DAD!"

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:07 | 2898046 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Romney had to know about this...he should have hit him with it. 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:27 | 2898083 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm sure they laughed about it over beers afterwards,

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:27 | 2898085 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I'm sure he does and should have.

I still can't get over him basically telling him to sit down and shut up with his..."Thats a statement not a question." line...and O'Barry did.

He's weak, worn out, can't run on any kind of record and still completely reckless & irresponsible...move in and finish it.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 14:32 | 2898607 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

You've already paid for the lawsuits - the entire judicial system is taxpayer-funded.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:34 | 2897955 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Went duck hunting with two of my 20-something nephews. Both business major college grads. One is a landscaper, the other a painter. No wonder the illegals are returning to Mexico to find work.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:37 | 2897967 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

You mean they are not taking our jobs?

Most of my high school mates from 15 years ago that have received degrees are working for the Federal Government.  IRS, Social Services, etc. I don't like them anymore.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:39 | 2897982 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

+1 that they have jobs and aren't eating Doritos while they wait for their entitled ship to come in. They will do well in life.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:13 | 2898058 realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

Please, take no offense.

Most state university business degrees cost about $100k, all in.

This is the dumbest business investment decision any businessman could make.  Your ROI is negative, as your nephews are finding out...

I guess student loans result in creating NINJAs...no income, no job....

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:40 | 2898114 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

And add interest to that $100K

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:35 | 2897961 brockhardman
brockhardman's picture

Have no fear folks, I just saw Mr. Bernanke getting a tune up on his helicopter. 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:39 | 2897977 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

2013 will have a net loss in jobs. 

 

For the twelve months ending Sept 2013, I am forecasting a drop of 0.25% in NFP employment. 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:43 | 2898123 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Voted you down for unjustifiable display of precision.  In my world where such things matter .25% really means "No change". In any case, I'll take the under on your number, entering a recession in worse shape than in 2007.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:43 | 2897995 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Well, as the great Walstreetpro2 once said, "when you're borrowing money just to pay the interest, you are fucked!"

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:43 | 2897996 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

That smarmy prick Obama is gonna busy on Nov 7th if he gets re-elected. He has piled up so much dope and change fairy dust that this prick is gonna feel like he got hit by a japanese tsunami Nov 7th

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:45 | 2898129 Jena
Jena's picture

Maybe he'll be radioactive, too. 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:55 | 2897999 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

The way I see it, we have transitioned from a "Fake it till you make it" economy to a "Fake it till they take it" economy.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:52 | 2898010 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Gallup out today saying MID-MONTH October unemployment rate drops to 7.3%.

 

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:52 | 2898011 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

won't all the seasonal bullshit jobs mask this over until about March?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2898387 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The election will be decided.

What is that supposed to mean. The election is a non event for the President of the NoWO. Oh I guess it means that after the election reality will catch up. That's good.

But the more local elections are not as meaningless I'm voting for ... That's right Gary Johnson and against Feinstein.

And I guess we don't get to vote for the FED so that is what it is.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 13:49 | 2898483 nofluer
nofluer's picture

The article says that the "hiring plan index" is a leading indicator. But all that indicates is that companies presently plan to hire. Not that they actually will. So it's not really an indicator of real-world economic conditions at all. So I'd call it an "hope-ee change-ee" indicator. ;-)

But since this is a "Financial Recession", unemployment IS a leading indicator. (In a "Business Cycle Recession", unemployment is a lagging indicator.)

http://michaelepicray.com/2011/05/03/economic-systems-the-bad-and-the-go...

To indicate an upswing in the employment picture it would take at least three consecutive months of improving employment numbers to herald an improving economic picture. (See the stats for the dot.com crash, and for the Great Depression - both financial recessions/depressions.) According to ShadowStats - that does not appear to be the case. And discounting the "unadjusted" numbers for September, even the BLS does not have three consecutive months of falling unemployment.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

So I'm not seeing any improvement. I'm seeing more of the same on into the future.

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 14:45 | 2898652 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Ok, everybody, write your predictions down or put them in a computer file and you can tell us how (in)accurate you were in a year. k? 

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