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Chinese Goldilocks GDP: Q3 Economy Goalseeked Just As Expected At 7.4%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Chinese economic data has in general been surprising to the downside in recent weeks - in opposition to the positive (seasonally adjusted awesomeness) of US data. However, for tonight's entertainment we have GDP at 7.4% YoY - perfectly in line with expectations (but the 7th consecutive quarter of slowing growth), Industrial Production beat modestly, Retail Sales beat handsomely (biggest beat in 18 months), and FAI beat...

  • *CHINA 3Q GDP RISES 7.4% VS ECONOMISTS' EST. 7.4%       :NBSZ CH
  • *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 9.2% VS 9% ECONOMISTS' EST.
  • *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT UP 20.5% VS EST. 20.2%
  • *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 14.2% FROM YEAR EARLIER

So, no new stimulus coming anytime soon - leaving Bernanke and Draghi all alone (and the latter is stuck waiting for Rajoy to say 'Si'). AUD lurched violently up and down; US equity futures are unmoved; and Treasury yields rose perhaps 1bps.

China GDP growth - right on target...7th consecutive quarter of slowing growth

 

Retails biggest beat in 18 months...

 

Chinese Economic Data has in general been disappointing relative to expectations recently...

 

 

 

From FT:

China’s gross domestic product expanded by 7.4 per cent in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. China is this year on track for its weakest annual growth since 1999 <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8514c0dc-17af-11e2-9530-00144feabdc0.html... thanks to slowing domestic investment and limp demand from major export markets, particularly crisis-hit Europe, which has been the largest recipient of Chinese exports for years.

 

The latest reading, published by the Chinese government on Thursday morning, is well below last year’s 9.3 per cent expansion or the nearly 10 per cent average growth rate that China has notched up over the last three decades.The economy grew 7.6 per cent in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, compared with the nearly 12 per cent growth China boasted as recently as early 2010.“China is experiencing a double-whammy – the growth slowdown is driven by weaker exports as well as domestic demand, in particular investment growth,” World Bank chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, Bert Hofman, said last week.The quarterly reading of 7.4 per cent is lower than the government’s full-year target of 7.5 per cent growth this year but in comments published on Wednesday evening Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he was sure the country would meet the target this year <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/479e537e-1860-11e2-80e9-00144feabdc0.html... Wen also said there were signs that the economy could now be stabilising at lower levels.“Exports have gradually recovered, consumption has grown steadily, price inflation has clearly receded, the job market has been very good,” he said.

 

This is far worse than most had anticipated at the start of 2012,” said Mark Williams, chief economist at Capital Economics. “But it is not a hard landing in terms that matter to China’s policy makers <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cc05e828-e860-11e1-8ffc-00144feab49a.html.... Slower growth does not appear to be generating significant job losses.”Most analysts and government officials mistakenly predicted China’s economy would start to accelerate in the second or third quarter of this year but that has not happened yet.Most economists now expect the economy to have bottomed out in the third quarter but few are predicting a strong recovery from the current slower pace.“China’s growth trajectory is likely to be L-shaped,” said Barclays economist Huang Yiping. “The potential growth rate is probably already down to 7 per cent and in the near term, employment conditions and housing prices will determine the amount of flexibility in macroeconomic policy.”

 

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Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:10 | 2899882 Orly
Orly's picture

Wow.  Unreal.  Riding that Aussie like a bronco!  Looks like they got him back in the corrall, boys.

If I may make an observation and say that it seems that central banks may be manipulating currencies.

Not sayin'...jus' sayin'.

:/

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:23 | 2899918 knukles
knukles's picture

Neutron Jjack's Second Coming

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:11 | 2900018 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Thank you zerohedge for the annoyingly intrusive spam from none other than blackrock thieves and ING scumbags.

Fuck you Bernanke.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:51 | 2900096 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Forget currencies its figures being manipulated, this shit is reminiscent of COMRADE BEST GRAIN HARVEST EVER NOBODY STARVE

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:57 | 2900103 Orly
Orly's picture

Except the Ukrainians...

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:10 | 2899883 fnord88
fnord88's picture

OT but interesting: https://rt.com/usa/news/refusing-grand-jury-plante-196/

 

Girl jailed for being an anarchist and having black clothing.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:12 | 2899886 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

bernanke is going to stop printing and start unwinding this thing now that we are kicking ass too.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:55 | 2900100 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

So check this out:

*CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 14.2% FROM YEAR EARLIER

China's Inflation is Probably 14.2%...minimum. 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:12 | 2899888 Orly
Orly's picture

But in the words of RadioHead: Gravity always wins.

:D

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:16 | 2899902 Surrealist
Surrealist's picture

DON'T WORRY! The global economy has turned a corner and rigorous economic growth and prosperity dead ahead! Captain!!

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:18 | 2899911 adr
adr's picture

Ebay beat by a penny though. That means Facebook should go to $30.

Housing farts rose by the most in four years. Dow 50k!!!! Not actual building, just the intention to build. We don't need real work to make money. Just the INTENTION to make money.

Fake is the new real.

Goalseek the Obama re-election.

Full retard.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:32 | 2899936 brak
brak's picture

Housing farts rose by the most in four years.

when did they start pulling permits for FEMA trailiers?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:21 | 2899915 chump666
chump666's picture

Oil and DXY are both bid, which would indicate the poor hapless Chinese companies trying to offset their commie leaders fudging.  Wall Street may profit take on open, if the USD stays bid and futures point south.  The global re-inflation (equities) cartel may not be able to stretch this too Obama's win. 

 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:13 | 2900023 chump666
chump666's picture

Unless Spain takes the bailout and Mario prints.

This is the most 'cooked' rally in history.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:34 | 2899944 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

if you factor in realistic inflation numbers, China is sinking in real terms.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:55 | 2899990 Orly
Orly's picture

Man, no kidding.  And to think all this time, China was going to be the growth engine of the world for decades to come.  These numbers should scare the living bejeesus out of equity longs and they have been coming in like this for several weeks.  They are ignoring it at their own peril, of course.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:50 | 2899976 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

But...But... we have another jobs number in the morning! It's unicorns and Rainbows for everyone! /sarc 

 These charts are getting pretty over overbought on longer timeframes.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:59 | 2899998 Orly
Orly's picture

It seems, for some reason unknown to me, they are desperately trying to ramp the EURUSD back to the Fibo at 1.34.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:50 | 2899977 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What's up China? Didn't you get the memo? All economic reports are supposed to be better than expected until after the election. Sheesh fuckin commies can't even get that right.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:59 | 2899997 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Chimerica is alive and well. It's got its eyes dead set upon the EU in my view. There's simply no stopping the "better, faster, cheaper" regime...don't tell me "there are logistical issues" either. let alone "commodity price problems." the price of steel has collapsed. i think copper will be next. first a solar panel maker becomes the property of the DOE. Now a battery mfg. This are very valuable industrial properties. Should the government find someone to start running these concerns "in the government's interest" you could see a dramatic reduction in the cost of energy and of course transportation. i say the private sector takes no interest in matters such as these at their own peril.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:05 | 2900011 Orly
Orly's picture

"Should the government find someone to start running these concerns "in the government's interest..."

That's fascist, dude.  You're making me nervous!

:/

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:47 | 2900085 PUD
PUD's picture


Foundation for China's economic stabilisation is not solid according to the national statistics bureau

Says: 
- China can achieve full-year growth target. 
- China is in a good position to achieve above target growth this year. 
- China still faces upward pressure on consumer prices. 
- China's housing prices are coming down.

http://ransquawk.com/assets/ransquawk/sprites.png); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; text-decoration: none; font-weight: bold; color: #cc0000; text-indent: -119988px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; text-align: left; height: 16px; display: inline-block; float: left; width: 16px; zoom: 1; background-position: -128px -48px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; padding: 0px; border: 0px !important none !important initial !important;" title="Print this headline (Opens in pop up window)" href="http://ransquawk.com/print/headlines/248294">Print02:40 - Asian News - Source: Newswires

Also..oil imports grew 8% so a double digit increase should see brent and wti spike nicely higher bringing even greater awesomness to the green shoot recovery

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 01:30 | 2900189 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

Whenever you see a trend that smooth, you know its manipulated.  Adjust your trades accordingly.  Instead of being annoyed, look at it as an opportunity.

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