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    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Housing Starts Surge 15% To 872,000, Highest Since July 2008

Tyler Durden's picture


The pre-election barrage of "six-sigma" economic beats continues, with today the trophy going to Housing Starts, which soared by a whopping 15% from a revised 758K to 872K. The highest forecast called for a 800,000 print with consensus expecting an increase to 770,000K. Did we say 6 sigma? We meant a 9 sigma beat to consensus. The numbers being thrown about are so ridiculous they are almost credible in their political talking point ridiculousness. Expect this outlier printing to continue at least until the election. In the meantime, prepare for a barrage that housing start soared to the highest since July 2008. Looking inside the numbers, the print for single family rose to 603K from a revised 543K, while multi-family houses increased to 260K from 208K. The geographical breakdown is as follows Northeast down 4K to 75K, Midwest modestly higher to 143K from 134K, West a little more higher from 169K to 203K, and the biggest surge was in the South from 376K to 451K. At this point the best one can hope for is for a return to some normal data reporting after the election, because it is now obvious that every data series will be skewed and 'seasonally adjusted' substantially higher. Curious why BofA charge-offs are already soaring thanks to the Housing Bubble 2.0? That's why.

Housing start in context:

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Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:54 | 2897619 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture





Jumped the shark! I just hope Santelli calls in sick today.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:56 | 2897634 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Gotta say, sure looks like the Chicago Mafia and Wall Street are beating out the NWO this election!  I guess the NWO doesn't have any tricks up its sleeve.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2897642 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

Well, when you own both of the canidates you don't really have to do much.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2897663 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The S&P is surging this week too, in line with the global recovery. This completely contradicts the libertarian 2012 apocalypse conspiracy theories which have been quietly forgotten on all the fringe blogs. None of the 2012 doomer conspiracy theories came true. In fact, the global recovery is only accelerating.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:13 | 2897682 duo
duo's picture

you're right MDB.  Wal-mart will have to replace 1 million 40 hour/wk employees with 1.33 million 30 hr/week employees, meaning WMT alone will reduce unemployment by 300K.  Obamacare creates jobs.

Perhaps all these multifamily units will be owned by employers so that they can be company housing for the $240/week crowd (30 hours at $8/hr)

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:27 | 2897725 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

This just in, Walmart exempted from Obamacare taxes; detail at 6:00.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:32 | 2897742 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Typical voter: 9 Sigma? That's an energy drink, right?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:16 | 2897899 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Red Bull gives me wings. 9 Sigma makes me puke.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:27 | 2897726 bania
bania's picture

Wake me up when we hit 10 sigma

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:53 | 2897813 saturn
saturn's picture

Is everypne sure it wasn't the China's housing report?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2898361 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Our sigma goes to eleven.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:31 | 2897738 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Mother fucking NWA fucks up everything he touches.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:22 | 2897912 physnomics
physnomics's picture

Don't waste your time MDB~  Zerohedgers are in pessimistic side. Martket have both sides, one is optimistic, just like you,and another one is pessimistic, zerohedgers. That's why market have buy side and sell side.

Maybe all the conpiracy theories that zerohedger believe are all true, and might happen in the long run. But most of people who making lots of money don't care about those conspiracy theories, they care about when to sell and when to buy.

If you can make money, talking bullshit conspiracy theories is a little habbit and is afreedom of speech given by constitution. However if you can't, talking bullshit is wasting your time~

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 12:05 | 2898178 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Speaking of bullshit, was there a point to your lil tirade there Sparky?

Sun, 10/21/2012 - 00:33 | 2907335 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I'm highly optimistic - that a short-term profit will be had from vxx shares & calls. I am also highly optimistic that holding leveraged paper silver will get some profits before total collapse, and that actual silver coins will make excellent barter when paper / electrons have no value at all.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:55 | 2898152 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

I actually believe these #'s...as follows:

April '12 Fed "relaxed" rules encouraging banks to rent REO property rather than liquidate (banks can hold up to 5yrs).  Since that time...

-distressed sales have collapsed

-inventory of available properties have literally evaporated

-mortgage rates have been driven to all time lows

-3.5% FHA financing readily available

-rental rates are rising nationally

-still lots of all cash investors looking for returns

All this adds up to incent homebuilders to bring on the new construction spigots.  This is also consistent with what realtors and builders are seeing.  Fed induced bubbles everywhere.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 13:31 | 2898432 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

There are apparently 18 million empty homes in the USA ... unsold, foreclosed, shadow inventory, everything else

Sure some of these empty homes are falling apart ...

But building nearly a million new homes, while 18 million homes are empty? Wow, what a system

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 14:00 | 2898524 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Check out Random Lengths Lumber Reporter.  Framing Lumber and Panels (OSB and Plywood) are all down about 20%. CME lumber jumped solely on the Housing numbers.

Of course, no one is manipulating the numbers ? 

sarc ?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2897644 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Dude.....who do the think the NWO is?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:53 | 2897811 saturn
saturn's picture

The ghost cities builders..

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:26 | 2897918 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Get a building permit, have the contractor drive out and turn over a shovel of dirt and that's a "start".

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:11 | 2898056 seek
seek's picture

Contractor doesn't even need to do that. Just need the permit and it's a start.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:39 | 2897981 Zadok
Zadok's picture

Show me some real data, completions not starts, completed sales not promises. No skin in the game translates into manipulation to whatever end is currently most pressing.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 11:32 | 2898100 myptofvu
myptofvu's picture

Wow I just looked out my window and saw 22 houses going up...they weren't there before the report.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:51 | 2897620 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Get your multi family home right over here while demand is plummeting!

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2897638 Popo
Popo's picture

Two more weeks of beats until the election.  After that we'll get an onslaught of revisions.

Party on.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2897656 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Parents Basements previously used for storage, now living space.  There's your six sigma.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:52 | 2897625 docj
docj's picture

Swell. So will DA FED be canceling QEInfinity with all this "better than expected" news? No?

Well, then that's about all we need to know about how credible is any and all of this "wonderful" news of "recovery". Isn't it?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2897641 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

indeed.  time to go long everything physical of any real value.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:01 | 2897842 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

just reloaded yesterday, bought a bunch of gold and silver

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:41 | 2897988 Zadok
Zadok's picture

AG bull-it's?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:53 | 2897627 viahj
viahj's picture

China has empty cities, we have empty suburbs

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2897637 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Where did everybody go then?  To the FEMA camps?  Oh wait...

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:53 | 2897628 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

No doubt the millions of OBAMA HOUSES under construction

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:53 | 2897630 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

total steaming fucking horseshit!!

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:56 | 2897633 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

Need another Lithium pill.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2897648 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Don't Bogey that crap....pass it around.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:58 | 2897639 PUD
PUD's picture

If this is all conspired to re-elect Obammy...who is most served by that?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2897659 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Well considering Romney has already said that Benji Bernanke is getting his ass handed to him should he be elected, i see the FED'S greasy fingers all over the latest collection of American economic "data".

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:46 | 2897776 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

To those of you better versed than I in statistical analysis, what are the odds of 3 consecutive economic reports beating expectations by 6 sigma?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:30 | 2897931 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I was wondering the same thing ...

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:55 | 2898014 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

My understanding is that the odds of a 6 sigma event are 3/1million.

Wouldn't that put the odds of 3 consecutive beats at 9/10 to the power of 18 or roughly 1 in 10 to the power of 17? So, there is a 1 in 10 to the power of 17 chance the numbers weren't rigged.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:58 | 2897640 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If they build enough of them and the price keeps falling I might even get one. My ObamaHome. In PA there are lots of homes for dirt cheap. Utilities cost more than the mortgages.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2897645 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is so obvious what is going on with all these numbers that I am amazed those spewing forth this crap are not embarrassed about what they are doing. I can assure you Nevada is still in a housing depression and Sacramento reported a huge drop in sales for the month of Sept. Nothing has changed except the total bullshit that our govt. vomits up, almost on a daily basis.


Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2897646 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

I love the sound of bubbles being (re)inflated in the morning.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:31 | 2897740 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

i mean seriously-I live in the SW Chicago IL burbs-the US hotbed of NO good jobs being produced thanks to the high cost of living because of the union hammerlock-and they're still building these f-ing plastic tract houses. I am guessing these scumbags are getting no-Down Pay FHA loans and everyone knows that worked out so well before.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2897649 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

We are all playing 'Blind mans Bluff' in a minefield of phony stats.

The only option is not to play.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2897651 dbomb12
dbomb12's picture

Who cares!! except the Borg drones who believe this crap. In the end the FED will own all the mortgages the collapse will come then people will be renting from the government if they can afford to do even that

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 10:22 | 2897914 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

...if they can afford even that.

Is their any cost for living in a FEMA camp? Other than one's loss of freedom, that is?

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