Housing Starts Surge 15% To 872,000, Highest Since July 2008

Tyler Durden's picture

The pre-election barrage of "six-sigma" economic beats continues, with today the trophy going to Housing Starts, which soared by a whopping 15% from a revised 758K to 872K. The highest forecast called for a 800,000 print with consensus expecting an increase to 770,000K. Did we say 6 sigma? We meant a 9 sigma beat to consensus. The numbers being thrown about are so ridiculous they are almost credible in their political talking point ridiculousness. Expect this outlier printing to continue at least until the election. In the meantime, prepare for a barrage that housing start soared to the highest since July 2008. Looking inside the numbers, the print for single family rose to 603K from a revised 543K, while multi-family houses increased to 260K from 208K. The geographical breakdown is as follows Northeast down 4K to 75K, Midwest modestly higher to 143K from 134K, West a little more higher from 169K to 203K, and the biggest surge was in the South from 376K to 451K. At this point the best one can hope for is for a return to some normal data reporting after the election, because it is now obvious that every data series will be skewed and 'seasonally adjusted' substantially higher. Curious why BofA charge-offs are already soaring thanks to the Housing Bubble 2.0? That's why.

Housing start in context:

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GetZeeGold's picture





Jumped the shark! I just hope Santelli calls in sick today.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Gotta say, sure looks like the Chicago Mafia and Wall Street are beating out the NWO this election!  I guess the NWO doesn't have any tricks up its sleeve.

GFKjunior's picture

Well, when you own both of the canidates you don't really have to do much.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The S&P is surging this week too, in line with the global recovery. This completely contradicts the libertarian 2012 apocalypse conspiracy theories which have been quietly forgotten on all the fringe blogs. None of the 2012 doomer conspiracy theories came true. In fact, the global recovery is only accelerating.

duo's picture

you're right MDB.  Wal-mart will have to replace 1 million 40 hour/wk employees with 1.33 million 30 hr/week employees, meaning WMT alone will reduce unemployment by 300K.  Obamacare creates jobs.

Perhaps all these multifamily units will be owned by employers so that they can be company housing for the $240/week crowd (30 hours at $8/hr)

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

This just in, Walmart exempted from Obamacare taxes; detail at 6:00.

NotApplicable's picture

Typical voter: 9 Sigma? That's an energy drink, right?

GeezerGeek's picture

Red Bull gives me wings. 9 Sigma makes me puke.

bania's picture

Wake me up when we hit 10 sigma

saturn's picture

Is everypne sure it wasn't the China's housing report?

economics9698's picture

Mother fucking NWA fucks up everything he touches.

physnomics's picture

Don't waste your time MDB~  Zerohedgers are in pessimistic side. Martket have both sides, one is optimistic, just like you,and another one is pessimistic, zerohedgers. That's why market have buy side and sell side.

Maybe all the conpiracy theories that zerohedger believe are all true, and might happen in the long run. But most of people who making lots of money don't care about those conspiracy theories, they care about when to sell and when to buy.

If you can make money, talking bullshit conspiracy theories is a little habbit and is afreedom of speech given by constitution. However if you can't, talking bullshit is wasting your time~

Bay of Pigs's picture

Speaking of bullshit, was there a point to your lil tirade there Sparky?

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I'm highly optimistic - that a short-term profit will be had from vxx shares & calls. I am also highly optimistic that holding leveraged paper silver will get some profits before total collapse, and that actual silver coins will make excellent barter when paper / electrons have no value at all.

Ham-bone's picture

I actually believe these #'s...as follows:

April '12 Fed "relaxed" rules encouraging banks to rent REO property rather than liquidate (banks can hold up to 5yrs).  Since that time...

-distressed sales have collapsed

-inventory of available properties have literally evaporated

-mortgage rates have been driven to all time lows

-3.5% FHA financing readily available

-rental rates are rising nationally

-still lots of all cash investors looking for returns

All this adds up to incent homebuilders to bring on the new construction spigots.  This is also consistent with what realtors and builders are seeing.  Fed induced bubbles everywhere.

bank guy in Brussels's picture

There are apparently 18 million empty homes in the USA ... unsold, foreclosed, shadow inventory, everything else

Sure some of these empty homes are falling apart ...

But building nearly a million new homes, while 18 million homes are empty? Wow, what a system

Kayman's picture

Check out Random Lengths Lumber Reporter.  Framing Lumber and Panels (OSB and Plywood) are all down about 20%. CME lumber jumped solely on the Housing numbers.

Of course, no one is manipulating the numbers ? 

sarc ?

GetZeeGold's picture



Dude.....who do the think the NWO is?

saturn's picture

The ghost cities builders..

Abiotic Oil's picture

Get a building permit, have the contractor drive out and turn over a shovel of dirt and that's a "start".

seek's picture

Contractor doesn't even need to do that. Just need the permit and it's a start.

Zadok's picture

Show me some real data, completions not starts, completed sales not promises. No skin in the game translates into manipulation to whatever end is currently most pressing.

myptofvu's picture

Wow I just looked out my window and saw 22 houses going up...they weren't there before the report.

Jlmadyson's picture

Get your multi family home right over here while demand is plummeting!

Popo's picture

Two more weeks of beats until the election.  After that we'll get an onslaught of revisions.

Party on.

GolfHatesMe's picture

Parents Basements previously used for storage, now living space.  There's your six sigma.

docj's picture

Swell. So will DA FED be canceling QEInfinity with all this "better than expected" news? No?

Well, then that's about all we need to know about how credible is any and all of this "wonderful" news of "recovery". Isn't it?

LawsofPhysics's picture

indeed.  time to go long everything physical of any real value.

azzhatter's picture

just reloaded yesterday, bought a bunch of gold and silver

viahj's picture

China has empty cities, we have empty suburbs

LawsofPhysics's picture

Where did everybody go then?  To the FEMA camps?  Oh wait...

HelluvaEngineer's picture

No doubt the millions of OBAMA HOUSES under construction

LongSoupLine's picture

total steaming fucking horseshit!!

bigwavedave's picture

Need another Lithium pill.

GetZeeGold's picture



Don't Bogey that crap....pass it around.

PUD's picture

If this is all conspired to re-elect Obammy...who is most served by that?

Sheeple Shepard's picture

Well considering Romney has already said that Benji Bernanke is getting his ass handed to him should he be elected, i see the FED'S greasy fingers all over the latest collection of American economic "data".

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

To those of you better versed than I in statistical analysis, what are the odds of 3 consecutive economic reports beating expectations by 6 sigma?

Arkadaba's picture

I was wondering the same thing ...

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

My understanding is that the odds of a 6 sigma event are 3/1million.

Wouldn't that put the odds of 3 consecutive beats at 9/10 to the power of 18 or roughly 1 in 10 to the power of 17? So, there is a 1 in 10 to the power of 17 chance the numbers weren't rigged.

q99x2's picture

If they build enough of them and the price keeps falling I might even get one. My ObamaHome. In PA there are lots of homes for dirt cheap. Utilities cost more than the mortgages.

monopoly's picture

It is so obvious what is going on with all these numbers that I am amazed those spewing forth this crap are not embarrassed about what they are doing. I can assure you Nevada is still in a housing depression and Sacramento reported a huge drop in sales for the month of Sept. Nothing has changed except the total bullshit that our govt. vomits up, almost on a daily basis.


Sheeple Shepard's picture

I love the sound of bubbles being (re)inflated in the morning.

otto skorzeny's picture

i mean seriously-I live in the SW Chicago IL burbs-the US hotbed of NO good jobs being produced thanks to the high cost of living because of the union hammerlock-and they're still building these f-ing plastic tract houses. I am guessing these scumbags are getting no-Down Pay FHA loans and everyone knows that worked out so well before.

Winston Churchill's picture

We are all playing 'Blind mans Bluff' in a minefield of phony stats.

The only option is not to play.

dbomb12's picture

Who cares!! except the Borg drones who believe this crap. In the end the FED will own all the mortgages the collapse will come then people will be renting from the government if they can afford to do even that

GeezerGeek's picture

...if they can afford even that.

Is their any cost for living in a FEMA camp? Other than one's loss of freedom, that is?