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Why Obama Supporters Should Buy Commodities, Not Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While patriotically buying US equities, or Intrade contracts, is 'believed' to reflexively improve the odds of the incumbent reaching a second term, the correlation between Obama's lead over Romney and stocks is actually not that high. The most highly correlated 'vehicle' for 'impacting' the odds of an Obama victory is, according to empirical data, the CRB Index.

 

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:00 | 2899440 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

If rooting for more of the Shalom's tenure, then buy commodities... duh

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:03 | 2899443 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

IT'S ALL ABOUT MITTENS  (and fait accompli)

 

No one could have failed more miserably than Obama.
No one could be more divisive.
No one could be a worse enemy of the middle class.
No one could be more arrogant or insulting, sneering down his fat nose; preaching, screaming at American workers, that they must do more for drug addicts and idiots.
No one else could offer such bogus credentials or such a dangerous, bull shit bio.

So, the Jew Media loves him, and tried to declare the election over.  Why, and why are they so smug?  What could Massad have on him?  How can they twist his balls?  The queer thang?  Half of Chicaga knows he is gay; the other half doesn't care.  Does it matter, the day after Israel is vaporized?  He needn't do much; just give a wink that there will be no retaliation.  The rational actor.  It will be, as the Frogs say, a fait accompli.  We don't know who was responsible..., meaning, "who gives a shit?"  We shall investigate.  Tee Hee.

As ye sow, so shall ye reap...., or in the redneck version, "what goes around, comes around."     

  sacre bleu.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:03 | 2899862 Umh
Umh's picture

When you make two points with one post it makes it hard to vote you up or down.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:06 | 2899555 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Preppers=right wing anti Obama gun nuts.

Commodities buyers=Elite select destined to lead ignorant masses.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:30 | 2899591 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Owning commodities is part of prepping.  The elite, who are mostly liberal, have too much faith in the system to prep for anything.  The welfare poor, like the elite, will wait for the system to save them.  The working poor are natural survivors, they will shine in a crisis.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 00:38 | 2900141 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

"the elite, who are mostly liberal"

The stupidity on here boggles the mind sometimes.

Here's a helpful wiki for brainwashed / braindead folks like harbanger.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism

"Liberalism (from the Latin liberalis)[1] is a political philosophy or worldview founded on the ideas of liberty and equality.[2] Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally they support ideas such as free and fair elections, civil rights, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, free trade, and a right to life, liberty, and property.

Liberalism first became a distinct political movement during the Age of Enlightenment, when it became popular among philosophers and economists in the Western world. Liberalism rejected the notions, common at the time, of hereditary privilege, state religion, absolute monarchy, and the Divine Right of Kings. The early liberal thinker John Locke is often credited with founding liberalism as a distinct philosophical tradition. Locke argued that each man has a natural right to life, liberty and property[8] and according to the social contract governments must not violate these rights. Liberals opposed traditional conservatism and sought to replace absolutism in government with democracy and the rule of law."

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 07:48 | 2900453 malikai
malikai's picture

Locke is now known as a "Classical Liberal".

The Liberal Harbinger refers to is a NeoLiberal. Part of the NeoLiberal/NeoConservative union against the people.

Also known as a George Bush Conservative, or a Barack Obama Liberal.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:03 | 2899447 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Dude why the fuck are people using intrade odd's to calculate the election

 

Intrade thinks you are more likely to discover Alien life, upto and before 2013, than upto and before 2014...

i mean how is that reliable..

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:13 | 2899462 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

There you go again, injecting logic into politics;)

 

BREAKING NEWS:  Obummer pulling all funding out of Noth Caylina.  Their own polling shows they get a major ass whopping.  And so it begins.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:50 | 2899530 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

That idiosyncracy is due to illiquidity. 

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 21:28 | 2899762 Doña K
Doña K's picture

You can arbitrage the differential. But what if an alien shows up?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 01:18 | 2900173 Wraithlord
Wraithlord's picture

Wow. Idiocy arbitrage?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:08 | 2899453 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Why Obama supporters should by commodities?

So they can get Corzined.

F'ers

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:17 | 2899468 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

How much can you buy of anything on a government check?

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:41 | 2899499 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

It's amazing how much crack you can buy on a government stipend.

 

(I do believe crack can be counted as a commodity in the hood. So Tyler, where's the chart?)

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:55 | 2899536 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

The price of illegal drugs seems to remain amazingly steady over the years. The black market is the only real and stable economy left.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 07:53 | 2900443 malikai
malikai's picture

So, for the sake of argument, lets timeframe this to the last 10 years - which I think it is confirmed that prices have remained stable.

Is this because of reduced production costs, increased competition, debt deflation, or what?

The money supply sure has grown..

And for certain, one can buy many more ozs of grass with a toz of gold these days than they could in 2002.

I'd love to hear a geniune economic analysis of the subject.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:01 | 2899860 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Wealthy perhaps. Elites, no.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 06:45 | 2900376 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

And I thought the banksters were betting on both horses so they will win no matter what the outcome.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:25 | 2899485 Rainman
Rainman's picture

All my betting allowance is gone for the month. I'm all in on 12/21/12.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:33 | 2899495 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

There are three interviews with the London Trader on the KWN. Every time this mysterious "insider" speaks about how bullion banks are on the verge of collapse, gold and silver get taken to the woodshed. I'm worried! If Embry comes out and says that we are on a verge of a major breakout, I'm selling.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:42 | 2899504 Duke of Con Dao
Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:42 | 2899506 Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

here's another on the house...

YouTube - Obama gets Romney in a Clinch

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:46 | 2899519 spinone
spinone's picture

Coincidence does not imply causality.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 18:47 | 2899521 spinone
spinone's picture

Coincidence does not imply causality.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:10 | 2899561 larz
larz's picture

a portfolio of commodities and drone manufacturing companies should do an Obama supporter well

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:26 | 2899584 billybobtx
billybobtx's picture

Avoid the GMO commodities though, got hammered on Dr. Oz today...

 

Buh Bye, Monsanto...

 

http://www.doctoroz.com/blog/mehmet-oz-md/genetically-modified-foods-good-or-bad

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:42 | 2899608 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

Obama is a politician and Romney is a buisness man. Obama can trick you with his liberal backwards talk and Romney can trick you will numbers and things you didn't know about .

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:49 | 2899617 rustymason
rustymason's picture

David Stockman in Newspeak: Is Romney really a job creator? Ronald Reagan’s budget director, David Stockman, takes a scalpel to the claims.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/10/14/david-stockman-mitt-romney-and-the-bain-drain.html

Romney is Gordon Gekko, basically.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 19:58 | 2899635 realtick
realtick's picture

Nice charts.

If anyone can spot imminent hyperinflation in these charts let me know:

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/10/cpi-s.html

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 20:01 | 2899640 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

"Now is a good time to buy gold".

LOL.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 20:55 | 2899699 franzpick
franzpick's picture

OT, but NoBama related: last June NaturalNews offered a piece on the 10 Red Flags of sociopathic behavior: "charming, intense, guiltfree, lying, winning, intelligent, self-serving, poetic, attacking and delusional". After watching the townhall tv presidential debate last night, hosted by candybar crowley,and then just now reading again the 10 red sociopathic flags, and then pressing "control F(find)" and entering "Obama" for the NaturalNews piece and comments, did not find one reference to our charismatic president:

http://www.naturalnews.com/036112_sociopaths_cults_influence.html

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 20:59 | 2899705 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

There are two or three types of commodities.  Renewable ones - food, Energy ones - unrenewable, Metals - Techincally not renewable but do not disapear.

 

1. Renewable Ones - Price increases will be driven by energy prices, its not like we are producing less food every year.

2. Energy Ones - Price increases will be driven by increase in use and enegry costs (it takes energy to move energy, even by pipeline which takes energy to build), and "scarcity".

3. Metals - Precious Metals will increase because of inflation, but usable metals will not increase in price because they can virtually be reused forever.

 

You solve the energy problem you solve the commodity problem and in turn solve the inflation and precious metal problem.

 

What can we learn from China?  How to live on 2 dollars a day from a 16 hour work day.

Wed, 10/17/2012 - 22:39 | 2899952 hawk nation
hawk nation's picture

I will give even odds obama will loose and loose big similar to the way reagan beat carter

i will also take any action straight up

obama cant steal this election because he will loose by too much

that should be romneys last add comparing obama to carter and concluding that carter was a better president

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 08:04 | 2900482 Venerability
Venerability's picture

Tyler,

For once I agree with you!

But re Gold and Silver: Diwali buying begains in earnest NOW, followed in a few weeks by Lunar New Year's buying.

And other than South Africans, major index Gold and Silver stocks should report very good quarters in general, compared with the recent past, because of much higher average realized prices this time, especially in Silver. GG kicks things off in a little over a week.

 

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