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Banker-Muppet M.A.D. Begins: JPM Cuts 2013 GDP By 1% Due To "Fiscal Cliff"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A month ago every single bank was delighted when Bernanke proudly announced QEternity. What they did not realize is that by doing so, and by "getting to work" as Chuck Schumer had previously requested of the Chairsatan, Congress suddenly has no impetus to do anything over the fiscal cliff, i.e., to lose face with the electorate by compromising over difficult fiscal issues, because, guess what, Bernanke is on top of it. After all look at the market - no risk is allowed ever again. Because since the Fed is now in charge the market, and of fiscal policy, why bother with protection or Plan B. The banks, however, know better, and know that without hundreds of billions in continued stimulus from D.C., the musical chairs game is about to end and the market will implode. Which is why the warnings of Mutual Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) were only a matter of time. Sure enough, here comes JPM with the first of many official GDP revisions (don't worry - JPM's Mike Feroli will promptly revise everything much higher if a fiscal cliff deal is done... some time in March long after the S&P has tumbled by 20% in a replay of August 2011), in which he sees the fiscal cliff now reducing 2013 GDP growth by 1%, up from the previous estimate of 0.5%, and specifically sees Q1 and Q2 GDP of 1.0% and 1.5%. And it's all downhill from there...

From JPM:

The US fiscal cliff: an update and a downgrade

  • The payroll tax holiday looks unlikely to be extended at the end of the year
  • The drag on consumer spending could subtract about 0.6%-pt from GDP next year
  • We continue to expect most of the Bush-era tax cuts will be extended at year-end

Earlier this year we presented our expectations for 2013 fiscal policy in “US: fiscal cliff notes,” Special Report, April 26, 2012. While many of the views presented there still hold, we are no longer of the belief that the payroll tax holiday will be extended. That change alone is worth over half a percent on GDP growth next year. Overall, we now see cliff-related fiscal issues subtracting about 1%-pt from growth next year, up from our prior assessment of 0.5%-pt. The table at the right summarizes our expectations regarding fiscal cliff outcomes. This note deals exclusively with fiscal cliff-related issues, with a special focus on the payroll tax holiday. There are other important non-cliff fiscal issues, such as declining defense spending, which are not the topic of this note. (We estimate these non-cliff fiscal measures have subtracted about 1%-pt from growth relative to trend over the past year, and will  subtract a similar amount in the coming year.)

The holiday is over

As mentioned above, we no longer expect the 2%-pt reduction in payroll tax rates to be extended at year-end—a change that will increase payroll taxes and reduce household disposable income by around $125 billion next year. This tax holiday was initially agreed to in late 2010 as a one-year stimulus measure, partly to replace the expiring Making Work Pay tax credit and partly as a sweetener to get the Democrats in Congress and the White House to go along with a two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts. Last year, as the economy foundered, the Administration pushed for the payroll tax break to be extended another year. After a little resistance, Congressional Republicans agreed to this request.

Our expectation earlier this year was that the economy would remain sluggish and the Administration would once again push for an extension of the payroll tax credit, in order to avoid adding fiscal tightening to an already tepid recovery. The economy has indeed remained sluggish, and yet the Administration has shown little desire to push for an extension of the payroll tax holiday. In this sense, the change in our view wasn’t because of something that happened, but rather what didn’t happen: few in the political establishment came forward to push an extension of this tax break. As such, we are now incoporating a 2%-pt increase in payroll taxes early next year into our forecast.

In addition to the political uncertainty of whether the payroll tax holiday is extended, there is also the economic uncertainty as to how much it has impacted consumer spending. Economic theory suggests that rational consumers will spend very little of a temporary tax windfall. It should do little to affect long-run financial well-being, and consumers instead will use any temporary windfall to increase saving or pay down debt.

The evidence supporting this view is mixed, as some studies have found that the majority of even one-time payments, such as the early 2008 economic stimulus checks, are spent. There are some reasons to think the spending multiplier for the payroll tax cut may be larger than that for the 2008 one-time payments. First, because of the weak economy and stilltight consumer credit conditions, more households may be “liquidity constrained,” i.e., would like to spend more if only they could access saved or borrowed funds. This may be particularly true since the payroll tax cut is proportionally more important for lower- and middle-income households, precisely those more likely to be liquidity constrained. For these households, the entirety of any tax windfall is likely to be spent.

Second, and perhaps more important, is the design of the payroll tax cut. Behavioral economists have found that people are less likely to spend funds that they view as wealth and are more likely to spend income. Highly visible, one-time lumpsum payments like the 2008 stimulus checks are more often viewed as an addition to wealth and thus saved. The steady increment to weekly or biweekly paychecks due to the payroll tax holiday is more likely to be seen as additional income, and is thus more likely to be spent.

Unlike the 2008 stimulus payments, there aren’t many microeconomic studies examining the impact of a payroll tax holiday. In lieu of this, another approach is to look at the behavior of the saving rate when the tax holiday was introduced: all else equal, if the tax holiday had no effect on spending then the saving rate would have increased at the beginning of 2011 and stayed elevated since. If the tax windfall was entirely spent then there would be no impact on the saving rate. As is often the case, all else was not equal: compensation in January 2011 soared—which would tend to put upward pressure on the saving rate—while energy prices rose in the first half of 2011—which would tend to put downward pressure on the saving rate. In any event, the saving rate blipped higher in 1Q11, only to retrace that rise the next quarter. While this evidence is not dispositive, it is consistent with most of the tax windfall being spent, and thus a relatively high multiplier.

In this vein, if we assume a multiplier of around 0.75, then consumer spending next year would be reduced by close to $100 billion, or about 0.6% of GDP. If this adjustment were to occur entirely in 1Q13, then the drag on annualized GDP growth that quarter would be -2.4%-pts, clearly a major restraint. Even if the adjustment is spread out over the first two quarters of the year, which seems more consistent with past experience, the headwind to growth should be noticeable.

Other parts of the cliff

Our expectations regarding other parts of the fiscal cliff remain unchanged—though obviously are held with little confidence given the unsettled situation in Washington. We anticipate that emergency unemployment benefits will be extended, albeit with somewhat reduced generosity. The automatic spending cuts required under the Budget Control Act could play out in a number of ways: our best guess is that some, but not all, of the spending cuts will take place, with the remainder pushed back over the 10-year budget planning horizon. The big kahuna in the fiscal cliff considerations is the Bushera tax cuts. We continue to anticipate that these are extended, though if Obama wins convincingly it will increase the odds that upper-income tax rates revert to higher levels, as may dividend and capital gains tax rates (see “US: the impact of higher dividend and capital gains taxes,” GDW, Oct 5).

 


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Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

GOOGLUCK with that, bitchez.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

GOOGLOL

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Jump you fuckers!

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

FUCKBOOK YOU

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Careful now, I think the actual Fuckbook site might just have a decently profitable business plan.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I hear plan B for Ben is, eternal snowballs from heaven.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture


I have to poop.  Paper sucks, you Wall Street fucks! I'll see you vampires in the sun, with my loaded silver gun. Yer goin' down in flames, from Lower Manhattan to the Thames. Your paper is I know not where, I'd rather shit my underwear!  For, be there bull, or be there bear, silver is the suit I wear! (With gratitude, and apologies to Dr. Seuss.)

 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

jpm should hire me, i could tell you that with a lot less bullshit involved.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Wun Hun Lo
Wun Hun Lo's picture

Hi Becky, nice to meat you.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I guess I picked the wrong week to quit googling...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

But Tom Lee has been telling me to double fist on the buy side until SPX reaches 5000 (i jest on ONLY the 5000 target).

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

add a zero to that

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I just called Congress and told them to "get to work."  They promptly hung up after laughing, saying "Have you seen the stock market lately?"

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

And the FED is out of bullets except for printing infinity.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

It's not so much that they are out of bullets, it's more that the bullets are getting smaller and smaller, and they have to fire them faster and faster.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Was that statement issued from JPM's " Fiscal Cliff War Room" , aka synthetic derivatives compliance department?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

The Thorazine mind-numbing wore off, turned on the computer, opened ZH, and opened this thread first.

Something wrong Google stock...???

Something I should know...???

I went all in on it last week...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Puts all in?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

All the way in, baby, all the way...

Something i should know...???

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

That wasn't lube...   ; >

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Don't worry, Cramer's on TV wearing is stupid fucking orange hardhat.  WHat a complete tool.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

At what point will we lose the ability to tell the difference between reality and the movie Idiocracy?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

uhhhmm, when everything has electrolytes?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

I showed my Chase teller this. She looked at me like i had two heads and then offered me a cup of coffee and a nice cookie

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment john_connor
john_connor's picture

LOL.  Blame the Fiscal Cliff on the recession/depression that we have already entered or never left.  Typical confusion of cause and effect.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

The politicians are waiting for the elections to see who has the power...the mandate so to speak....and there is going to be blood spilled...its going to be a circus to the rest of the world watching it....downgrades...treasuries selling off...loss of our status as a leader...the world will see us as a bunch of babies fighting...

Missing is the Obamacare costs

missing is the peoples reactions to the cliff...what they do BEFORE the cliff hits...sell dividend stocks..take capital gains now...whatever..lots of ????? marks.....what will the Fed do...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Mittens should book that moving company for 1600 Penn Ave.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

JPM thinks GDP =Google Domestic Products?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Trading GOOG at 3:20, HFTs at 3:19:58:37.002

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Everyone knows that GDP growth is overstated when inflation is understated. Unfortunately GDP growth is mostly to be found in inflation rather than increased economic activity. What JPM is offering is just peripheral bullshit.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

sorry... we're already `Oevr' the fiscal cliff? it's called suspended animation, cocooned in quantum-hyperflation.

we've just not reach bottom,... but glide aimlessly in a gravitational down spiral in what surely has become a bottomless abyss... civilization has been digging for millennium?

IBM`ber's... GOOG`clides... APPL`eplode's

1,2 & 3 Kaboom!!!

 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Blythe, was that you that junked almost 95% of the posts just now?

Your initials, BM, speaks volumes!

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Old Poor Richard
Old Poor Richard's picture

This is just stupid.  It is impossible for deficit spending to spur GDP growth.  Ergo, it is impossible for cutting the deficit to hurt GDP growth.  Any impact on the GDP has to be corrected for the printing by Zimbabwe Ben.  If the US govt cuts the deficit, it cuts the flooding of "free" money into the economy by the same amount, thus reducing inflation.  The GDP denominated in dollars will go down 4%, and inflation of those dollars will go down 4%, net 0% change in GDP in real terms. 

 

The "cliff" is only a cliff for the parasites on the receiving end of the govt gravy train!

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