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Goldman's Take On GOOG: "We Await More Color On The Company's Disappointing Eesults "

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The squid speaks:

Top line and non-GAAP EPS below the Street. Google reported total net revenue of $10.78bn and non-GAAP EPS of $9.03. This compares to our estimates of $11.76 bn and $10.23, respectively, versus consensus of $11.89 bn and $10.15. Motorola sales were $2.58bn versus our estimate of $2.81bn and consensus of $2.87bn, accounting some $300mn of the miss. We note that Google standalone operating margin was 34.3% in the quarter, our forecast of 36.6%.

Paid click and CPC growth below expectations. Paid click growth came in at 33% yoy versus consensus of 34% yoy. We estimate the 1 point miss accounted for approximately $75mn of the top-line miss. Google's CPC’s declined 15% yoy compared to our forecast of a decline of 11% yoy, in line with consensus. We estimate the 4 point miss drove $300mn of the top line miss. The miss on CPCs and paid clicks coupled with the recent declines in comScore global desktop search queries will raise concern the mobile, including tablets and phones, growth is outstripping desktop faster than expected. Of particular note, tablets carry a great TAC impact than phones given Android's insignificant market share on these devices.

Conference call today at 4:30PM. We await more color on the company's disappointing results on this afternoon's conference call.

 

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Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:27 | 2902222 redpill
redpill's picture

Racists

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:33 | 2902253 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

I would be interested to hear GS opinion since many muppets pay attention to them. Having said this, as a generalization: Fuck You GS!

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2902291 iDealMeat
Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:50 | 2902294 ACP
ACP's picture

...and the manipulation is so incredibly blatant today, like the usual suspect wall st scum criminals were caught off guard. Somebody had a long lunch, I guess.

EDIT: HFT SHITBAGS HAVING ALITTLE TROUBLE TODAY? NOT ENOUGH DOUGH TO BANG UP BOTH THE SPY AND THE Q'S HUH?

BETTER GO CRYING BACK TO UNCLE BEN, BITCHEZ.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:54 | 2902321 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gold and AAPL will be sold off for the margin calls on GOOG.  

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:59 | 2902338 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GOOG is an attractive short at $700.  Target for covering is $660.  

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 19:32 | 2902914 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Just wait until they issue a "Strong Buy" so they can cover their asses.  

Then the abyss awaits Big Brother.   

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:28 | 2902223 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Paging Heather...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:27 | 2902224 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Muppet Sphinkers Pucker

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:29 | 2902234 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

The color is already obvious. Bleeding out rapidly in Arterial Red. Soon to be white as a sheet, and dead as a door nail.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:30 | 2902237 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

so the 2nd biggest tech co. absolutely shits the bed, and the S&P is down 4 handles? wtf??

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:34 | 2902254 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

LOL

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:38 | 2902270 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yep-  in a real market, we'd be down 50, easy-   freaking joke.......

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:45 | 2902301 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Should be green by the close, just another day in this kangaroo market. 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:02 | 2902341 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The banks and hedge funds earnings are based primarily upon the stock market performance ever since ZIRP and QE has been advocated by the Fed. If these markets fall their earnings go up in smoke. Their entire business model is this casino that Bernanke has created and any slight earnings exposures by the likes of a GOOG is now a red alert emergency at the PPT. It's utterly insane and Bernanke needs to be taken to task for this crap.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:12 | 2902370 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

must have been that stellar jobless claims #, or the residual glow from wonderful IBM and Intel reports...

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:38 | 2902239 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

I think the "conference call" was at 2:30.  Needed to plan the number to open at.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:31 | 2902242 tickhound
tickhound's picture

At 4:30 it will be confirmed that today's color is RED.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:36 | 2902262 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Await more color from a Squid, whose ink is a black & blue, like Squid clients.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:37 | 2902264 PUD
PUD's picture

"Generational" bitchez

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:37 | 2902267 mick68
mick68's picture

 

 Squidsters panicking and will pick up the tab on this one to pull it back from its death throes. Time to squeeze them for some of our money back.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:38 | 2902271 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Show me the money color.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:44 | 2902274 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Who knows where this knife lands but if I had to buy and hold one stock for 10 or 15 years this would probably be it.

Clicks/schmlicks - eventually they will know pretty much everything there is to know.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:40 | 2902281 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

CNBS just said that this is a buying opportunity.

Sure it is, earnings per click has fallen on consecutive quarters.  I'm sure the great Bernanke will have the solution.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:49 | 2902492 knukles
knukles's picture

Everything is a buying opportunity

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:40 | 2902282 soopy
soopy's picture

Color it squid ink purple bitchez

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:43 | 2902292 freedogger
freedogger's picture

They should have posted the earnings on Google+ where no one would see them.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:44 | 2902295 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The fact is if everyone is moving away from pc's and laptops the pay per click advertising is not available right now on phones.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2902303 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Can you print clicks?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:48 | 2902308 tickhound
tickhound's picture

LOL!  I'm sure our best and brightest are on that right now.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2902304 blu
blu's picture

Shorter GS: "We're disappointed. We think maybe you're holding out on us. It's bad for everyone if you are not you know playing with the team and everything. You like your kneecaps, right?"

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:49 | 2902312 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

Heather and teh QQQ already called out $660 price target.  I think it's Bookie time- you've got to take bets on both sides if GS is making the call (somebody needs shares to short).  Hedge for lower than $660 if GS is making a call for upward movements).

With GS, it's always opposite day. 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:51 | 2902317 devo
devo's picture

Fried calamari, bitchez

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:51 | 2902319 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

I wonder how many short bets GS can make per one borrowed share?

This is how they grew the subprime UNCOLLATERALIZED "collateralized" debt obligation.

On one side of the coin, it's not fair.  

On the other side, they can f*ck themselves really hard.  The general public isn't smart enough to figure this out, this is what GS is counting on.  

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:58 | 2902322 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Who trusts Google anyway? More and more people know they are databasing everything you do, and are working in cooperation with the various governmental security agencies to track you relentlessly.

 

Only a fool uses Google - any of it - serach, email, maps, you name it. Everything is databased about you. From the time you are verified in your mother's womb until the worms take the first bite of your rotting corpse, you are tracked. And they are directly tied to the new Global Data Collection Center in Utah run by those trustworthy people at the DHS and CIA. Every electronic communication you make is stored - emails, texts, phone calls, everything. It is the most massive data collection effort on Earth.

 

And for all you corporate types out there - surprise! - all your communications with your bankers, stock managers, accounting firms, investors, employees, your so-called corporate secrets transmitted elctronically, marketing firms, all of it is being intercepted and databased by the American security establishment. (I'm really amazed at the IT ignorance of the major firms - how are you so stupid as to allow the goverment to get all this on you? Your texts and calls to your favorite sex kittens, boy toys, escorts, your family health records, who is banging who, your dope dealer . . . Talk about being compromised.)

 

Google is what everyone feared Microsoft would become - Big Brother.

-30-

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:22 | 2902395 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup.

And they are chomping at the bit to get rid of hard currency and be able to track the newer generations on mobile purchase and banking apps, and many of the youngsters think it is so "cool" and don't seem to care that their lives are under the microscope.

Just imagine the I.R.S. getting tied into the data; instant checking of earnings, spending, taxes, etc.  Overnight garnishing of wages based on tracking data; they can hardly wait.

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 03:11 | 2903604 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

We've come a long way since the mechanical computers and ticker tape machines that tallied the German war machine and counted their victims.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2902445 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

     Only a fool uses Google - any of it - serach, email, maps, you name it. Everything is databased about you.

If you're really concerned about your online habits being databased, you better get off the Internet.  There's no escape--if you use a search engine, OR connect to the Internet via an ISP, OR frequent any websites which use cookies, you're screwed.

Of course, there are a few sites out there that promise they don't store your data...heh heh.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 17:47 | 2902645 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Blunderdog:

 

You're right about everything being databased; as soon as you click on anything it goes to a near-real-time warehouse for auction and immediate sale. Your next web page will contain ads targeted upon what you are looking at on other pages.

 

However, no other firm has the national security ties that Google has, especially with their kissing up to the Obama administration. I believe they were the top corporate donor to his election in 2008, and are leading the pack this year as well. (If not the top, near it, and certainly the top firm of their genre).

 

So they are a direct connect to our protectors at DHS and the CIA. Of course, all this domestic spying is completely illegal, but who cares when you've got a Black Racist AG who is looking at all the white collar criminals whose arse he's saved as the AG to roll over as first-tier clients when he goes packing in January.

 

So while it's true they all database, it is also true they don't all feed that data directly to DHS and the CIA.

-30-

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 18:00 | 2902690 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    However, no other firm has the national security ties that Google has

Nah, you're just making stuff up.  ALL the big telcos and search providers have been in the gummit's pocket since early in the previous administration.  This ship sailed almost a decade ago.

You remember hearing anything about FISA?  I know it was a long time ago, but it was a matter of public record.  All DHS had to do was call and everyone jumped at the chance to hand over their data.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:55 | 2902324 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

So Heather is the color commentator now? Everyone knows the color commentator STFU

when the play-by-play squid speaks. 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 15:56 | 2902333 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Tech stocks = quicksand

Amazed all those hedge funds have so much money in quicksand.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:00 | 2902344 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

First, IBM and INTC, then GOOG, then... <Jaws theme> .... the stock that cannot be named.  

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2902448 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

<> is for <>

j is for jacks

cinnamon toasty <> jacks

cinnamon delicious

crunchy too

kellogg's <> jacks.

(meow)

or i missed the clue.

/ben, can I borrow $1b for a clue?/  thanks, bud!

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:04 | 2902348 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Whoops!  CMG just pulled a GOOG!  Down 11%  Einhorn PUTS in the green.  

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:07 | 2902353 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Obamanomics coming home to roost. There is only so many people you layoff or fire before it hits the balance sheet.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:11 | 2902363 devo
devo's picture

Yep.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:09 | 2902357 devo
devo's picture

I've been saying to short this for almost a year. Along with Apollo Group. AMZN is going down in flames pretty soon but better off shorting it with options since the dumb money (Wall St) thinks it will grow into that multiple. Linkedin and FB are pretty obvious shorts, too. FB still has 50% to drop.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:23 | 2902379 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Amazon being forced to charge tax in California seems to have been ignored.

BIG negative for them as all states will follow, or make strident attempts, to follow suit.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:10 | 2902362 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i don't care if every company is bankrupt as long as the indexes are flat. also go fuck yourself.

- Ben

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:15 | 2902375 devo
devo's picture

How the hell are they flat. I don't understand how it's even possible

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:23 | 2902413 blu
blu's picture

It's all in how you churn it, baby:

http://madscienceunlimited.com/fiction/theexchange.html

Flat market, you make a few bucks, you go home. Who cares if the whole world catches fire on the way there?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2902406 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

massive sector rotation out of 'TBTF's' into fail-safe mode! treasury's  propaganda dept. called upon the fed's algo-meister-brewer BLK inc., to call a truce? stop!

pits lloyd calling the bernak a 'fink' chasing rabid MF!

bot's plead innocent of chasing any well-wishers... their electrons overwhelmed by neutronality!

so strange? 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:28 | 2902425 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

How can their clicks be down? Why don't they just use bots to click things like Facebook?

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:42 | 2902461 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

There's a MARKET for online advertising.  The value of the clicks drops as the conversion rate drops, so that just reduces the premium they've been able to charge for Google-brand ads. 

Unlike Bernanke, Google-guys may recognize that printing clicks doesn't help.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 17:35 | 2902508 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

.

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:59 | 2902520 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

How many shades of RED is there ? 

Thu, 10/18/2012 - 17:14 | 2902572 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

in blood?  only one... blue!?

 

Fri, 10/19/2012 - 07:14 | 2903720 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Google missed top and bottom line.  That's bullish.  Long Google with the rest of the bots/algos.

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